以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者成孟琦 黄慧玲 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 机构认为，贸易紧张局势最糟糕阶段可能已过去，市场焦点将集中在中美谈判及中国自身政策上。 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 记者 黄慧玲 编辑｜杨秀红 美国总统特朗普，又一次因为"改口"，而使全球资产出现风险偏好的转换，还带动中国资产上涨。 受特朗普对中国关税"松口"的影响，4月22日，避险情绪消退下，传统避险资产黄金、日元和瑞士 法郎出现不同程度回落，美国股市则出现回升，美股三大股指均上涨超2.5%。 4月23日，美股三大 股指数续升，纳指收涨2.5%，道指收涨1.1%，标普500指数收涨升1.7%。 外交部、商务部否认中美就关税问题进行磋商谈判 现货黄金在回调后反弹，4月22日-23日，现货黄金连续走低，伦敦金现一度跌至3291美元/盎司， 4月23日下跌2.71%。不过，4月24日，金价开始反弹，截至上午11时，伦敦金现反弹至3350美 元/盎司左右，涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the current global economic uncertainty, highlighting issues such as economic fragmentation and escalating trade tensions that disrupt global supply chains and financial markets, ultimately weakening global economic growth momentum [1] - The article stresses the importance of international cooperation to avoid a trajectory of "high friction, low trust" in the global economy, indicating that trade wars and unilateralism do not benefit any party involved [1] - China reaffirms its commitment to openness, support for free trade rules, and a multilateral trading system, aiming to promote inclusive economic globalization and maintain global economic and financial stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is currently facing significant uncertainty, characterized by fragmentation and escalating trade tensions, which disrupts global supply chains and financial markets, ultimately weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 1: Global Economic Situation - The global economy is experiencing increased fragmentation and trade tensions, leading to disruptions in supply chains and financial market volatility [1] - There is a call for enhanced cooperation among nations to prevent the global economy from descending into a state of "high friction, low trust" [1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Policy - Trade wars and tariff conflicts yield no winners, and unilateralism and protectionism are deemed ineffective and contrary to the interests of all parties involved [1] - China reaffirms its commitment to openness, supporting free trade rules and a multilateral trading system, while promoting inclusive economic globalization [1]

Group 1 - The global economy is currently filled with uncertainties, with increasing economic fragmentation and trade tensions disrupting global supply chains and financial markets, weakening global economic growth momentum [1] - There are no winners in trade wars and tariff conflicts; unilateralism and protectionism do not serve the interests of any party [1] - China will continue to uphold openness, firmly support free trade rules and multilateral trade systems, and promote inclusive economic globalization to maintain global economic and financial stability [1] Group 2 - The central bank has released several positive signals, indicating a stable monetary policy [2] - Key data has been announced by the central bank, which is expected to have favorable implications for the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is currently facing significant uncertainty, characterized by fragmentation and escalating trade tensions, which disrupt global supply chains and financial markets, ultimately weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The current global economic environment is marked by increased fragmentation and trade tensions, leading to disruptions in supply chains and financial market volatility [1] - There is a call for enhanced cooperation among nations to prevent the global economy from descending into a state of "high friction, low trust" [1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Policy - The ongoing trade and tariff wars are highlighted as having no winners, with unilateralism and protectionism deemed ineffective and contrary to the interests of all parties involved [1] - China reaffirms its commitment to openness, supporting free trade rules and a multilateral trading system, while promoting inclusive economic globalization [1] Group 3: Global Economic Stability - The emphasis is placed on the need to maintain global economic and financial stability amidst the prevailing uncertainties [1]

点击蓝字，关注我们 黄金期货价格在短暂攀升至3500美元/盎司高位后小幅走低。 智通财经 APP 获悉，在美国财长贝森特暗示贸易紧张局势可能缓和后，周二美国股市和美元走强， 黄金期货价格在短暂攀升至 3500 美元 / 盎司高位后小幅走低。不过，摩根大通对黄金持乐观看法， 预计明年金价将达到 4000 美元。 贝森特表示，他预计 中美贸易紧张局势最终会缓和 ，并称关税战 "不可持续"，尽管他将未来与中国 的谈判描述为一场尚未开始的 "艰难" 谈判。 在贝森特发表讲话后， 美国股市上涨逾 2%，美元指数上涨 0.7% 。贝森特的讲话有助于缓解市场对 美国总统特朗普要罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的担忧。特朗普威胁 罢免鲍威尔导致周一金价飙升，美国 股市和其他风险资产暴跌 。 然而，除非近期形势发生重大变化，否则预计金价将继续走高。Pepperstone 的 Quasar Elizundia 表 示："如果对货币当局的信心继续削弱，地缘政治和经济的不确定性持续存在，那么金价可能会延续 上涨势头，达到新高。" Pepperstone 的 Michael Brown 表示，由于没有迹象表明特朗普会改变惩罚市场的政策方向，市场参 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's high tariff policy is causing turmoil in the international economy and financial markets, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global economic output as a result [1] - Finance ministers from multiple countries are negotiating with the Trump administration to lower tariffs, with 18 countries already proposing solutions and discussions planned with officials from 34 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley's Bessent believes that while trade tensions among major powers may ease, negotiations with Asian countries will be challenging [1] - The U.S. stock market surged following the announcement that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for gold, which has seen a 29% increase this year [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could exceed $4000 next year due to recession risks, tariff hikes, and trade tensions [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' speeches for monetary policy clues, as well as the April manufacturing PMI preliminary values from the Eurozone and the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with Putin proposing a ceasefire and the UK Foreign Secretary advocating for peace [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a high of 3499.91 and a low of 3366.71, closing at 3380.85 [2] - The price initially continued to rise but faced pressure during the European trading session and weakened further in the U.S. session, breaking through key support levels [2] - Monthly analysis indicates that after three months of increases, a correction occurred, and a similar pattern is observed with four months of increases followed by a correction in April [2] - The weekly analysis shows that gold prices are supported at the 3006 level, while the daily analysis indicates support at 3206 [2] - Short-term analysis reveals that the price has broken through the four-hour support level, which has now turned into resistance, with the new resistance range identified at 3414-3415 [2] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming events include the G20 finance and central bank ministers' meeting, various manufacturing PMI preliminary values from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices follows a shift in sentiment from President Trump, leading to improved risk appetite among investors and profit-taking after a significant price surge [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day after initially breaking the $3500 per ounce mark, with a drop of 1.9% during early Asian trading [1] - The price of gold reached a historic high of $3500.10 per ounce before the decline began, as stock markets rebounded and both the bond market and the US dollar stabilized [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors began to take profits after the sharp rise in gold prices, which had increased over 25% year-to-date due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid trade tensions and deteriorating economic growth prospects [1] - The 14-day relative strength index indicated that gold was in an overbought condition, contributing to the recent price corrections [1] Group 3: Support Factors - Strong buying from central banks and gold ETF investors has provided support for gold prices despite the recent downturn [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the January prediction [1][3] - The report attributes the downward revision to increased policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weakening demand [3][4] - The growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% in 2025, while emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow at 3.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [3] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented new tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners, resulting in the highest actual tariff levels in a century [4] - The tariffs have led to significant declines in exports from countries like South Korea, with a reported 5.2% drop in exports in April, including a 14.3% decrease in exports to the U.S. [1][7] - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, with estimates suggesting that aluminum tariffs alone could raise the cost of a Ford F-150 by approximately $3,000 [8] Group 3: Business Sentiment and Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have reacted negatively to the tariff policies, with major indices experiencing declines of over 2% [5] - Retailers and other industries reliant on imports are expressing concerns about the impact of tariffs on their business models, with calls for the government to ease tariff requirements [6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies is causing anxiety among American families and small businesses, as rising prices are expected to affect everyday expenses [6][8]

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：全球经济面临的风险增加，贸易紧张局势恶化可能进一步抑制经济增 长。 ...