FDICI " 科尔尼近日发布全球 2025 年外商直接投资信心指数 （FDICI）报告。该报告调研了解投资者对未来 三年外商直接投资流动情况的看法。 2025年科尔尼外商直接投资信心指数®基于对全球领先企业高管专项调研所得原始数据展开计算。 调研时间是2025年1月。 然而，2025年3月以来，美国实施的"对等关税"机制对多个国家实行差异化税率调整，这一政策变化 引发了国际社会的广泛关注。针对这一贸易政策调整可能产生的区域性影响，特别是对亚洲经济体 的潜在作用，科尔尼全球商业政策委员会给予以下分析，分析基于的信息来源时间截至4月7日： 关税政策对亚太及东南亚地区的直接影响 特朗普总统关税政策可能对亚太地区产生显著影响。 而贸易紧张局势的预兆在FDICI报告的排 名中有所体现，如新加坡的排名从第12位降至第15位，印度从第18位降至第24位。 新加坡经济高度依赖贸易，且常处于中美之间，因此投资者可能担心贸易战对其经济的潜在影 响。 印度的优势在于人才储备（39%）和经济表现（28%），这是投资者青睐的主要原因。 美国新关税措施对亚太及东南亚地区FDI和投资者情绪的影响 鉴于关税政策的高度波动性和不确定性，目前 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]

期货热点追踪 ICE棉花期货下跌！贸易紧张局势和好天气背后隐藏着什么？ 相关链接 ...

周二，波罗的海干散货运价指数跌至逾四周低点，因持续的贸易紧张局势导致各类船舶运价下跌。波罗 的海干散货运价指数下跌59点或4.21%，至1342点，为3月6日以来最低水平。海岬型船运价指数下跌 102点或逾5%，至1915点，为3月5日以来最低水平，且为连续第11日下跌。海岬型船日均获利下跌847 元，至15881美元。巴拿马型船运价指数下跌78点或5.75%，至1278点。巴拿马型船日均获利减少700美 元，至11501美元。超灵便型散货船运价指数下跌11点或1.1%，至954点，达到逾三周最低水平。 ...

对经济衰退的担忧重新抬头 推动金价反弹 金十数据4月8日讯，黄金期货价格上涨，从近四周低点反弹。TICKMILL分析师约瑟夫•达里耶在一份 报告中表示，对经济衰退的担忧重新抬头，贸易紧张局势不断升级，推动了金价的反弹。投资者的注意 力现在转向美联储会议纪要和将于周四公布的通胀数据。达里耶写道，消费者价格指数（CPI）走软可 能会增强人们对降息的乐观情绪，并支撑金价上涨。 ...

法巴银行：欧盟应抵制贸易紧张局势升级的诱惑 金十数据4月8日讯，法巴银行首席经济学家拉戈说，欧盟应该避免对美国的关税进行报复，因为现代宏 观经济模型证实，报复对所有各方的结果都更糟。她在一份报告中表示："对于美国的贸易伙伴来说， 最好抵制升级的诱惑，而是加倍努力强化国内增长引擎。""欧洲在这方面处于特别有利的地位。"欧洲 央行前行长德拉基去年提出的单一市场投资计划，在国防、基础设施和能源领域得到了欧盟领导层的支 持，正是可以做到这一点，其规模超过了美国的双边贸易逆差。她说，紧张局势进一步升级有可能适得 其反。 ...

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a historic moment on March 31, with London spot gold prices breaking through the key psychological level of $3100 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3101.51 per ounce, marking a new all-time high [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical instability, escalating trade tensions, and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to shift funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have cumulatively increased by over 18%, reinforcing gold's position in the global financial market [1] Market Dynamics - The continuous rise in gold prices is supported by its unique attributes as a safe-haven asset and is closely linked to expectations of loose global monetary policies [1] - The potential for a weakening U.S. dollar due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to further enhance gold's attractiveness [1] - Central banks globally are predicted to increase their gold purchases to approximately 1300 tons per year, providing strong support for the gold market [1] Future Outlook - The market sentiment towards future gold price trends is generally optimistic, with many institutions and analysts believing that gold prices will continue to rise due to sustained risk aversion and expectations of loose monetary policies [1] - Some institutions even predict that the central price of gold could surpass $3800 per ounce [1]

近期，全球股市普遍遭遇重挫，市场情绪因美国总统特朗普的威胁言论而陷入恐慌。3月31日，亚太市 场开盘后，日经225指数一度大跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至2.4%，创下2月10日以来的最低水 平。与此同时，纳指期货跌超3%，显示出全球投资者对市场前景的担忧。 特朗普威胁言论加剧市场不确定性 特朗普在3月30日接受美国全国广播公司电话采访时，就伊朗核问题和俄罗斯石油出口发表了强硬言 论。他威胁称，如果伊朗不与美国就其核问题达成协议，美国将对伊朗进行轰炸，并对其相关产品征 收"二级关税"。此外，特朗普还表示，如果俄罗斯未能促成俄乌停火协议，美国将对俄罗斯石油买家征 收25%至50%的关税。这些言论引发了市场对地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧，进一步加剧了全球股市的 波动。 美股表现疲软，科技股领跌 作者：观察君 上周，美国三大股指全线下跌，纳斯达克指数累计跌2.59%，道琼斯指数累计跌0.96%，标普500指数全 周累计下跌1.53%。科技股成为重灾区，英伟达累计跌6.82%，Meta下跌3.27%，微软下跌3.18%，亚马 逊下跌1.78%，苹果下跌0.17%，谷歌A则下跌5.89%。市场对特朗普关税政策的担忧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing whether the economic environment that supported nearly 25% annual gains in U.S. stocks over the past two years has significantly deteriorated [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about signs of economic slowdown, with major stock indices experiencing declines due to escalating trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][3]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, has dropped 7.5% since mid-February, while small-cap stocks and bank shares have also been severely impacted [4][12]. - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index saw its largest monthly decline since 2021, indicating weakening consumer sentiment [8]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by Trump, including a 25% tariff on major trading partners, have led to increased uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions [3][5]. - Some businesses reported that the tariffs have resulted in higher product prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff policy could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2025, a lesser impact compared to other countries like Canada [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 has declined about 5% from its historical high on February 19, with small-cap Russell 2000 down 9.4% since late January [12]. - Despite the market turmoil, defensive sectors like consumer staples have shown resilience, with Procter & Gamble's stock rising 0.4% during the week [12]. - The bond market has seen a strong rebound, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recording a 2.7% return year-to-date, driven by price increases and interest income [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the bond market's recovery, citing persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may limit the potential for significant interest rate cuts [16]. - The future trajectory of bonds will depend on inflation, interest rate policies, and the evolving trade stance of the Trump administration [17].