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宏观金融数据日报-20250430
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 12:10
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 动(bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.54 | -5.09 | DR007 | 1.78 | 3.35 | | | GC001 | 1.61 | -28.50 | GC007 | 1.68 | -17.00 | | CCC | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.60 | 0.00 | | I | 1年期国债 | 1.46 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | -2.00 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.62 | -2.35 | 10年期美债 | 4.23 | -6.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开 ...
央行4月已开展12000亿元买断式逆回购
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 10:54
央广网北京4月30日消息(记者 冯方)4月30日,央行发布公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年4月央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展了12000亿元买断式逆回购操作。其中,3个月期7000亿元,6个月期5000亿元。 2024年10月,为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕,进一步丰富央行货币政策工具箱,央行决定启用公开市场买断式逆回购操作工具。操作对象为公开市场业务 一级交易商,原则上每月开展一次操作,期限不超过1年。公开市场买断式逆回购采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标,回购标的包括国债、地方政府 债券、金融债券、公司信用类债券等。 根据央行公告,2024年10月至2025年4月,央行已开展7次买断式逆回购操作,规模分别为5000亿元、8000亿元、14000亿元、17000亿元、14000亿元、8000 亿元、12000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对央广财经记者表示:"4月,央行分别开展7000亿3个月期和5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购。由于本月分别有1.2万亿3个月期和 5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购到期,因此4月央行买断式逆回购操作缩量5000亿。不过,由于本月MLF净投放量为5 ...
降准降息或适度提前
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 07:57
4月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)再次回到临界点以下。 4月30日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示,4月份,制造业采购经理 指数为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和 50.2%,继续保持在扩张区间。 高技术制造业延续较好发展态势 制造业采购经理指数是重要的经济先行指标。 所谓采购经理指数,是通过对企业采购经理的月度调查结果统计汇总、编制而成的指数,它涵盖了企业采 购、生产、流通等各个环节,包括制造业和非制造业领域,是国际上通用的监测宏观经济走势的先行性指 数之一,具有较强的预测、预警作用,其变化往往预示着经济的拐点。PMI数值高于50%通常表示经济扩 张,而低于50%则通常意味着经济收缩。 4月份制造业PMI为49.0%,回落至临界点以下,且比上月下降1.5个百分点。 对此,国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河指出,是"受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 外部环境急剧变化等因素影响"。 今年一季度,我国GDP同比增长5.4%,不仅高于去年全国5%的增速,也高于去年一季度5.3%的增速,在 全球主要经济体中名列前 ...
高处不胜寒?首季盈利逊预期,港A银行股突遭杀跌
Ge Long Hui· 2025-04-30 07:06
Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has experienced a collective decline after reaching continuous highs, with significant drops in major banks' stock prices and disappointing first-quarter earnings reports for 2025 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The A-share banking sector index fell by 1.69%, with notable declines including Huaxia Bank down over 8%, and other banks like Beijing Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China dropping more than 3% [1][2]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank fell over 5%, while China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China dropped more than 4% [1][3]. Group 2: Earnings Reports - Multiple banks reported disappointing earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with Huaxia Bank's net profit at 5.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.04% [6][8]. - Other banks such as Guizhou Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Bank also reported declines in net profit, with decreases ranging from 2.90% to 14.04% [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts noted that the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2024 suggests that banks may face pressure on asset yields in 2025, with expectations of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9]. - Despite some banks showing profit growth, the overall performance did not meet market expectations, leading to diminished investor confidence [8]. - Passive funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, while active funds have reduced their exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy [10][12].
A股:沪指 3300 点波动 关注多因素影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 06:51
Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]
财政货币双管齐下,二季度宽松可期,30年国债ETF博时(511130)交投活跃,成交额超13亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 04:22
此前24日,中国人民银行行长在出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季例会系列会议时表示,一季度中 国经济开局良好,延续回升向好态势,因此央行或许认为多层次货币政策工具中的降准降息的祭出仍需 时日。 2025年4月30日 ,国债期货午盘表现分化。30年期主力合约跌0.09%,10年期主力合约跌0.01%,5年期 主力合约涨0.04%,2年期主力合约涨0.03%。 ETF方面,30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着,最新报价113.08元。流动性方面,30年国债ETF博时盘 中换手20.45%,成交13.30亿元,市场交投活跃。拉长时间看,截至4月29日,30年国债ETF博时近1月 日均成交29.52亿元。 4月25日政治局会议召开。会议定调"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。财政政策上,提出"要加紧实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"用好用足更加积极的财政政策"、"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用"。"加紧"、"用好用足"等措辞表明力度。货币政策上,会议再次强调"适度宽松的货币 政策","适时降准降息,保持流动性充裕,加力支持实体经济"。 费率方面,30年国债ETF博时管理费率为0.15%,托管 ...
每日投资策略-20250430
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-04-30 02:50
Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]
大越期货国债期货早报-20250430
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:15
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号:F0230469 投资咨询证号:Z0000690 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面:国债期货收盘集体上涨,30年期主力合约涨0.69%,银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。央行在公开市场连续净投放,银行间市场资金面总体 平稳。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升,前者下行超5个bp,后者因跨月原因上行超3个bp。五一长假将至,在央行的呵护下,资金面无忧, 市场也在等待降息降准等政策落地。 2、资金面:4月29日,人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3405亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.50%,投标量3405亿元,中标量3405亿元。 Wind数据显示,当日2205亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单日净投放1200亿元。 3、基差:TS主力基差为-0.1450,现券 ...
股市暗藏布局机遇?4月30日,深夜爆出三大重要消息冲击来袭!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 18:21
一、停止口号降准降息!择机降准降息,给个明确时间吧!大A现在"失血"严重,急需增量资金的加入,流动性的注入。媒体已经多次报道要降准降息,但 到底啥时候来个准信儿呢? 同时,会议强调要"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策",这"加紧实施"四个字,说明政策肯定不会缺席,而且落地速度可能会加快。目前A股市场不缺资金 和政策支持,真正缺的是信心。所以,逢高减仓吧,这波行情估计快到头了。 二、跟昨天走势差不多,开盘先分歧后修复,然后窄幅震荡一天。 尾盘收盘3286点,跌幅0.05%,这控盘是不是太精准了?按理说今天应该是修复行情。出金压力小了;假期虽然有不确定性,但也不会比现在更糟糕; 除非破区间的下沿,否则节后方向选择向上的概率更高,仓位不要过度轻了,怕有概率踏空。操作方面,小长假期间,外盘的走势充满变数,其波动可能会 给节后的A股市场带来不同程度的影响。中长线而言,市场虽然在窄幅震荡,但依旧处于20日线上,可以稳步进场。 撰稿、收集数据不易,觉得有帮助的朋友可以点击关注、分享♝、点赞,支持一下,谢谢!也可点击收藏,方便日后翻查。 三、A股窄幅整理,依旧维持地量震荡格局。 三大指数均微幅收跌,市场成交额1.04万亿元,为 ...