21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 A股牛市氛围渐浓，8月15日，沪指收涨0.83%，盘中再次突破3700点关口，创近4年新高。 21世纪经济报道记者观察到，随着牛市行情升温以及7月金融统计数据出炉，近期多家券商研报关注"存 款搬家"议题。 机构普遍认为，7月非银存款同比大幅改善，或表明居民存款加速"搬家"入市，这是近期资本市场活跃 的重要因素之一。 日前，央行发布最新7月金融统计数据报告显示，前七个月人民币存款增加18.44万亿元。其中，住户存 款增加9.66万亿元，非金融企业存款增加3109亿元，财政性存款增加2.02万亿元，非银行业金融机构存 款（即非银存款）增加4.69万亿元。 居民存款"搬家"入市 中信证券宏观团队日前发布研报指出，居民存款"搬家"或已开始。在资产配置结构变化、投资情绪回升 和风险收益比改善的推动下，部分资金可能会流向股市等风险市场。在市场环境改善时，"存款搬家"或 带来可观的增量资金流入，为股市提供持续的资金支持。 近期，市场热议"存款搬家"现象。 今年8月以来，中信建投、中金公司、广发证券、华泰证券、招商证券、国盛证券、光大证券等10余家 券商相继发布"存款搬家"相关主题研报。 广发证 ...

当非银存款和居民存款出现"一增一减"，"存款搬家"议题再起。 7月金融数据显示，非银存款增加2.14万亿元，同比多增1.39万亿元；另一方面， 7月居民存款净减少 1.11万亿元，同比多降0.78万亿元。 本次是今年以来第二次"存款搬家"，上一次主要由今年4月的存款降息驱动，据业内人士分析本次或来 自权益市场强势的吸引。 从历史数据来看，居民存款余额与A股市值有显著的负相关性，被视为资金入市的信号。"存款搬家"意 味资金风险偏好的提升，且有利于提升交易活跃度及规模。 8月15日收盘，上证指数收涨0.83%，深证成指收涨1.65%，沪深两市成交额达到2.24万亿元，连续三日 突破两万亿元，超4600只个股上涨，其中"牛市旗手"券商板块收涨3.7%，净流入87.54亿元。 增量资金驱动牛市 非银机构是金融部门，存款在非银金融机构手里意味着非银部门"欠配"的状态，因此非银新增存款与权 益市场的成交金融趋势一致；政府是调节分配部门，存款在政府手里影响调节和再分配的能力； 上述三个部门在经济循环中会将存款逐步转移至居民部门，而居民是盈余部门，存款淤积在居民手里会 影响经济运行效率。 华创证券据此认为，居民存款的"存"与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits are increasing while resident deposits are decreasing, indicating a shift in investment preferences towards the equity market [1][6]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Data - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.78 trillion yuan [1][6]. - This marks the second occurrence of "deposit migration" in 2023, with the previous instance driven by interest rate cuts in April [9]. Group 2: Market Impact - Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between resident deposit balances and A-share market capitalization, suggesting that deposit migration signals increased risk appetite and can enhance trading activity and scale [1][4]. - On August 15, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.65%, with total trading volume reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The article highlights that the current ratio of resident deposits to total stock market capitalization is at a historical high of 1.8, suggesting that the influx of incremental funds into the market is just beginning [4][6]. - Analysts believe that the trend of reallocating domestic wealth towards the stock market is still in its early stages, with significant potential for future growth [6]. Group 4: Financial Products and Strategies - The "AIAE" indicator developed by CITIC Securities measures the ratio of investor equity asset allocation, indicating that the current level is still low, suggesting room for growth in equity investments [9]. - The article notes that "fixed income plus" products are seen as an ideal transitional vehicle for investors moving from deposits to equities, with a notable increase in the issuance of these funds [10].

（原标题：200万股民入市 A股4600股飘红 大金融爆发） 8月15日，A股低开高走，截至收盘沪指涨0.83%，深成指涨1.6%，创业板指涨2.61%，市场逾4600股上涨，成交额连续3日突破2万亿。 本周，上证指数累计涨1.7%，深证成指涨4.55%；创业板指涨8.58%，创年内最大周涨幅。 市场活跃度显著提升，据上海证券交易所数据，今年7月，A股市场新开户数达196.36万户，同比增长70.54%，环比增长19.27%。截至7月31日， 今年以来A股合计新开户数量为1456.13万户，同比增长36.88%。 从板块来看，券商、金融科技等大金融股集体大涨，指南针、同花顺双双创历史新高。 今日券商板块强劲拉升，截至收盘，证券板块整体涨幅近4%，成交额突破1200亿元。 储能概念股拉升，诺德股份涨停，安孚科技涨逾9%。消息面上，中国化学与物理电源行业协会发布《关于维护公平竞争秩序促进储能行业健康发 展的倡议》（征求意见稿），意味着储能行业正式启动"反内卷"。 权益市场热度再升级 在A股牛市行情推动下，沪深北三市单日成交额连续3日突破2万亿元大关，市场活跃度显著提升。 专业人士认为，这一轮行情的驱动力来自多方合 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed a strong performance on August 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 2.61% [1] - The total trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, indicating heightened market activity [1][14] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 8.58%, marking the largest weekly gain of the year [3] New Account Openings - In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [3] - The total number of new accounts opened in 2023 reached 14.5613 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.88% [3][4] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage and fintech stocks, experienced significant gains, with notable stocks like Zhihui and Tonghuashun reaching historical highs [6] - The brokerage sector saw an overall increase of nearly 4%, with trading volume surpassing 120 billion yuan [8] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift of funds from low-risk deposits to higher-yield investments such as stocks, insurance, and funds, driven by declining deposit rates and increasing attractiveness of equity assets [17] - In July, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of converting fixed deposits into more liquid forms for investment [17] Sector Rotation - The market is no longer dominated by bank stocks, with various sectors such as securities, semiconductors, and insurance showing strong performance and structural opportunities [14] - The recent rally in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy improvements, increased risk appetite from retail and institutional investors, and a resilient macroeconomic environment [14]

Market Performance - The A-share market has shown significant upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.61% on August 15, 2023 [1] - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.58%, marking the largest weekly gain of the year [2] Market Activity - A notable increase in market activity is observed, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [3] - As of July 31, 2023, the total number of new accounts opened this year reached 14.5613 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.88% [3] Sector Performance - The financial sector, particularly brokerage and fintech stocks, has experienced a collective surge, with notable stocks like Zhihui and Tonghuashun reaching historical highs [6] - The brokerage sector saw a strong rally, with an overall increase of nearly 4% and trading volume exceeding 120 billion yuan [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Stocks such as Changcheng Securities, Tianfeng Securities, and Dongfang Caifu have shown significant gains, with Changcheng Securities rising by 10.04% and Tianfeng Securities hitting the daily limit [8][9] - The PEEK materials sector related to robotics has also seen substantial growth, with companies like Huitong and Xinhang New Materials rising over 10% [10] Investment Trends - There is a trend of "deposit migration," where funds are shifting from low-risk deposits to higher-yield investments such as stocks and funds, driven by declining deposit rates and increasing attractiveness of equity assets [16] - In July 2023, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards more active investment strategies [15][16] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the equity market has improved, with multiple sectors showing structural opportunities, including securities, semiconductors, and insurance [14] - The market is experiencing a recovery in confidence, with a notable increase in risk appetite among investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "deposit migration" in A-shares is driven by declining deposit interest rates and increasing attractiveness of equity assets, leading to a shift of funds from low-risk deposits to higher-yielding investments such as insurance, funds, and stocks [1][6]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Indicators - A key indicator for assessing deposit migration is the divergence between M2 year-on-year growth and resident deposit year-on-year growth. If M2 continues to grow while resident deposits slow down or decline, it indicates funds are flowing out of resident deposit accounts [2][4]. - Recent financial data shows that in July, M2 grew by 8.8%, while resident deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards consumption or investment [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Fund Flow - Historical instances of significant divergence between M2 and resident deposits occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2014-2015, leading to large-scale deposit migration. The current trend is characterized by a passive outflow due to a scarcity of quality assets rather than an increase in risk appetite [5][6]. - Funds are flowing into various sectors, including stocks, funds, and wealth management products, with real estate expected to attract significantly less interest due to its recent downturn [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Preferences - For conservative investors, bond funds, particularly bond ETFs, are gaining popularity due to their stable historical performance and lower volatility. As of August 13, the scale of bond ETFs reached 536.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 208% increase from the previous year [7][9]. - The emergence of bond ETFs simplifies the investment process for investors, allowing them to rely on indices for selection rather than individual bonds, thus reducing operational complexity [9][12]. Group 4: Ten-Year Government Bond ETF - The ten-year government bond ETF is the only tool in the market tracking ten-year government bond performance, making it a benchmark similar to the CSI 300 index in the stock market [9][10]. - The ten-year government bond ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading and lower management fees compared to traditional bond funds, enhancing its appeal to both individual and institutional investors [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that government bonds continue to support social financing growth, while credit demand remains weak. Opportunities for retail credit growth may arise from the implementation of personal consumption loans and business loan interest subsidies [1]. Group 1: Social Financing and Government Bonds - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 386.4 billion yuan year-on-year; as of the end of July, the stock of social financing grew by 9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1 percentage points [1]. - The issuance of new government bonds reached 1.24 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan, supporting the continued rise in social financing growth [2]. - The total issuance of government bonds in July was 2.44 trillion yuan, which is 732.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Credit Demand and Loan Trends - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions grew by 6.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; in July alone, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan [3]. - Resident loans decreased by 489.3 billion yuan in July, with short-term loans down by 382.7 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 110 billion yuan, primarily due to weak real estate sales and early repayments [3]. - Corporate loans increased by 60 billion yuan, but short-term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing challenges in demand and debt management [3]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - The growth rates of M1 and M2 in July were 5.6% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1 percentage point and 0.5 percentage points [4]. - By the end of July, RMB deposits in financial institutions increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points; in July alone, deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 trillion yuan [4]. - Non-bank deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a significant shift in deposits due to active capital markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a structural change in the financial landscape, with a significant increase in non-bank deposits and a decrease in household deposits, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" towards financial products [1][2] - Non-bank deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, driven by a recovering capital market and declining bank deposit rates, leading residents to seek higher returns [1][3] - The M2 growth rate rebounded to 8.8% in July, indicating an increase in liquidity and a shift in preference from fixed-term to demand deposits for investment or consumption [1][2] Group 2 - There is a potential for a significant flow of household deposits into capital markets, with approximately 105 trillion yuan of time deposits maturing by 2025, which could provide substantial incremental funds to the capital market [2][3] - Despite the long-term trend of wealth shifting towards financial assets, the current low proportion of equity-based financial products and residents' risk aversion indicate that a stable trend of large-scale "migration" has not yet formed [2][3] - The recent negative growth in credit data highlights weak financing demand in the real economy, contrasting with the recovery in social financing and M1, indicating a lack of internal economic momentum [2][3] Group 3 - The expectation for interest rate cuts has cooled, with recent fiscal subsidy policies reducing the necessity for broad rate cuts, while structural policies aim to support the real economy more precisely [3] - The trend of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions signals an increase in fund activation, providing a positive outlook for the capital market [3] - The large volume of maturing deposits presents a potential foundation for market entry, but the transition from passive to active investment by residents is crucial for supporting healthy capital market development and financing needs of the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing its 3700-point level, indicating a potential correction phase in the market [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% to close at 3666.44 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropped by 0.87% and 1.08%, respectively [2]. - A total of 4396 stocks declined, with only 727 stocks rising, reflecting a broader market downturn despite the seemingly moderate index declines [3]. - The trading volume reached 22.79 billion, marking a significant increase of 1.283 billion from the previous day, indicating a large sell-off [3]. Sector Analysis - Only four sectors saw gains, with the insurance sector leading at a 2.64% increase, driven by China Ping An's acquisition of a stake in China Pacific Insurance [5]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" scenario, where valuation recovery coincides with performance growth [5][6]. - The H-shares of insurance companies have recently outperformed their A-share counterparts, with some nearing a reversal in valuation ratios [5]. Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of "overseas flowers blooming while domestic flowers wither," where foreign investors have a better understanding of the insurance sector compared to domestic investors who have been focusing on speculative stocks [6]. - High dividend yields are highlighted as a focal point for long-term investors, particularly insurance funds, which are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries [6]. Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by a peak in old themes and a lack of new themes, with performance being heavily scrutinized during the ongoing mid-year report disclosures [8]. - Data shows that 2900 stocks have underperformed the market since August, indicating a structural market where gains and losses are highly differentiated [8]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 500 billion reverse repurchase operation, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain market liquidity [9]. - The total reverse repurchase operations in August are expected to exceed 1.2 trillion, suggesting a proactive approach to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market [9].