金十数据5月9日讯，美联储巴尔金表示，不是所有的公司都可以提高价格来抵消关税成本，他警告称， 经过多年的通胀，消费者的容忍度很低。"我从零售商那里听到的是，消费者手头拮据，"巴尔金 说。"这意味着你要把价格传递给消费者不是你想象的那么容易。"巴尔金仍然认为美国经济状况良好。 他补充说，消费者支出和企业投资仍然稳固。他指出，虽然消费者信心指标明显疲弱，但这尚未拖累支 出。巴尔金说，他正在考虑关税是否会减缓经济增长，达到抑制通胀的程度。他说，这是2008年的经 历，但也有其他时候并没有发生。 美联储巴尔金：不是所有的公司都可以因关税提高价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that consumer spending and business investment remain very robust, although consumer confidence does not align with spending levels [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending is reported to be strong, indicating a healthy economic environment [1] - Business investment continues to show resilience, contributing positively to economic growth [1] - There is a noted discrepancy between consumer confidence and actual spending behavior, suggesting potential underlying issues [1]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国宾夕法尼亚州马歇尔金融公司首席投资官Adam Reinert表示，虽然鲍威尔及其 同僚或许能从近期的劳动力市场数据中获得些许安慰，但关税进一步影响的威胁切实存在，这可能促使 他们在未来的会议中采取行动。从宏观层面来看，我们认为一个关键考量因素将是，实际数据是否开始 证实消费者信心走弱，或者消费者是否会像2022年那样继续展现出韧性。 如果2018年的关税谈判能提 供什么借鉴的话，那便是美联储可能需要采取不那么强硬、更为宽松的政策，才能让市场和经济摆脱任 何与关税相关的潜在困境。 分析师：消费者信心成关键变量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of U.S. trade policies is leading investors to increasingly rely on "soft data" for decision-making, as traditional "hard data" indicators become outdated in a rapidly changing environment [1][2]. Group 1: Shift to Soft Data - Investors are turning to sentiment surveys and other forms of soft data to gauge current conditions, as hard indicators like unemployment rates and retail sales lag behind [1]. - Cresset Capital's CIO Jack Ablin emphasizes the need for soft data to understand the present situation due to a lack of real-time information [1]. - Reflection Asset Management's CIO Jason Britton notes that consumer sentiment is crucial, as poor consumer feelings can lead to reduced spending and economic harm [2]. Group 2: Divergence of Signals - There is a noted divergence between signals from hard data and soft data, which can sometimes fail to accurately depict future economic conditions [2]. - In 2022, despite a drop in consumer confidence, strong labor markets and household balance sheets led to continued consumer spending, contradicting recession predictions [2]. Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - Some market participants are seeking alternative indicators beyond traditional surveys, with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey highlighting the importance of new data sources during uncertain times [3]. - Harvey points to predictive markets like Polymarket, where users bet on various economic events, as valuable insights based on real-world interactions [3]. - Glenmede's Mike Reynolds is exploring new metrics, such as international tourist spending in the U.S., to assess the impact of tariffs [3][4]. Group 4: Caution on Soft Data - Despite the trend towards soft data, some experts, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, advocate for focusing on hard data, which they believe provides a more accurate economic picture [5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges the tension between hard and soft data, indicating that both will be considered in future rate decisions [5]. - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius warns against over-reliance on soft data, as it may reflect sentiment rather than actual economic activity, potentially leading to false alarms [5].

不过，并非所有汽车品牌都呈现销量下滑态势。大众汽车在英国的纯电动汽车销量在4月猛增194%，达 到2314辆；中国比亚迪汽车的销量增长311%，达到1419辆。 英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会(SMMT)6日数据显示，4月英国共销售新车120331辆，较去年同期减少 14132辆。这是英国新车销量连续第三个月出现下滑，且降幅较前两个月进一步扩大。 分析认为，消费者信心下降是导致此次销量下滑的主要原因。消费者对未来经济前景感到担忧，从而抑 制了购车需求。此外，英国政府对汽车行业的政策调整，如提高部分车型的税收，也增加了消费者的购 车成本，对销量产生了负面影响。 从具体品牌来看，特斯拉4月在英国的销量暴跌62%。数据显示，特斯拉4月在英国仅售出512辆新车， 而去年同期为1352辆。路透社分析称，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克与美国总统特朗普的亲密关系，以及他 在欧洲的相关政治立场，导致一些公众对其公司不满。 中新社伦敦5月6日电 (记者欧阳开宇)受消费者信心疲软等因素影响，英国4月新车销量同比下降超过 10%，显示该国汽车市场持续低迷。其中，特斯拉4月在英国的销量同比大幅下跌62%。 英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会首席执行官迈 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "new normal" in China's consumer market characterized by single-digit growth since Q2 2025, highlighting issues such as consumer confidence and consumption downgrade [1] - Despite challenges, the actual situation is more optimistic than some observers suggest, based on a nationwide survey of over 17,000 consumers conducted by McKinsey [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Trend 1: Consumers are adapting to the new normal, with GDP growth around 5% in 2024 and Q1 2025, showing resilience in sectors like tourism, dining, and health [2] - The expected consumption growth rate for 2025 is 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in 2024, driven by urbanization and stable consumer spending expectations [2] - Urbanization rate increased from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024, contributing to household growth [2] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - Trend 2: Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with 81% of respondents expressing more confidence in the macroeconomic outlook following stimulus policies from the People's Bank of China [4] - However, rural consumers show increased confidence due to government policies, with rural income growth at 6.6% in 2024 compared to 4.5% for urban residents [8] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Trend 3: Consumers are focusing more on personal achievement, with a shift towards spending on products and services that enhance quality of life [16] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% in 2025, indicating a return to normal consumption behavior [16] - Spending intentions are increasingly influenced by tangible factors like income and asset value rather than confidence levels [22]

这家美国物流巨头计划今年减少大约2万个运营岗位，约占其员工总人数的4%。在到6月底的第一阶段，公司计划关闭73个租用和自有业务 网点。 每经编辑 毕陆名 据新华社4月30日消息，美国联合包裹运送服务公司（UPS）4月29日宣布，今年将通过大规模裁员和关闭运营机构等方式降低成本，提高盈 利能力。 | 52周最高: 153.42 | 量比: 1.72 | 市盈率(TTM): 14.18 | 市净率：5.24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 52周最低: 90.55 | 委比:40.74% | 市盈率(静): 14.18 | 市销率:0.90 | | 每股收益:6.91 | 股息(TTM): 6.59 | 每手股数:1 | 总市值: 819.82 | | 每股净资产:18.48 | 股息率(TTM): 6.81% | 最小价差：0.01 | 总股本:8.48亿 | | 机构持股: -- | Beta: -- | 空头回补天数： -- | | 图片来源：视频截图 图片来源：视频截图 多家民意调查显示，逾半数美国人认为特朗普对通胀重视不足，政策应对力度不够；近四分之三美国人预期，特朗普政府的 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant drop in consumer confidence to a near five-year low, despite claims of "major economic victories" by the Trump administration [1] - Upcoming release of critical economic data is expected to potentially cause market volatility [1] - Current market sentiment shows mixed signals across major indices, with gold experiencing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and strong sell signals for crude oil [1] Group 2 - The data indicates a high percentage of bearish sentiment in various indices, such as 84% bearish for the Hang Seng Index and 74% for the S&P 500 [3] - The Nasdaq Index shows a 57% bullish sentiment, while the Dow Jones Index has 39% bullish sentiment [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a significant 82% bearish sentiment, indicating a prevailing negative outlook in the German market [3]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, primarily due to increasing concerns over tariffs impacting the economic outlook [1] - The index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [1] - This decline in consumer confidence has been observed for five consecutive months, indicating a persistent downward trend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Indicators - The anticipated GDP data for the U.S. is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter, attributed to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid rising costs from tariffs [1] - There is a potential for a substantial decrease in consumer spending, driven by high inflation and concerns regarding the economic impact of tariffs, leading some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings [1]

德国消费者信心意外回暖 关税影响程度相对下降 金十数据4月29日讯，尽管面临美国贸易政策冲击经济的警告，但德国消费者信心却意外上升，消费者 寄希望于即将上任的新政府的稳定性。5月GfK消费者信心指数升至-20.6，较4月高出3.7点，也高于市 场预期。NIM消费者专家Rolf Buerkl表示，特朗普在调查前夕开始的关税行动尚未对消费者情绪产生持 久影响。调查显示，消费者的收入预期和购买意愿都有明显上升，甚至经济预期也略有改善。消费者似 乎更受二月大选后组建政府谈判的影响。Buerkl指出，"目前对德国消费者而言，尽快组建政府显然更 为重要，这导致此前构成不确定性的关键因素重要性下降。"调查还显示消费者储蓄率出现下降，而此 前储蓄增长是阻碍经济活动复苏的主要问题。 ...