Market Overview - Pre-market futures are showing positive movement across major indexes, with the Dow and S&P 500 up slightly, while the Nasdaq is up by 70 points [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 is also in the green, up by 0.40% after a strong performance the previous day [1] Earnings Reports - BP reported its first positive earnings surprise in three quarters, with earnings of $0.90 per share, exceeding the consensus of $0.68 by 32.35% [3] - Marathon Petroleum posted earnings of $3.96 per share, beating the consensus of $3.22 by 23%, with revenues of $34.1 billion, a surprise of 10.3% [4] - Pfizer continued its streak of positive earnings surprises for 13 consecutive quarters, reporting earnings of $0.78 per share, surpassing expectations by 34.48% [5] - Great Lakes Dredge & Dock saw an earnings surprise of 75%, reporting $0.14 per share against a consensus of $0.08, with shares up 8.7% [5] - Caterpillar missed earnings expectations, reporting $4.72 per share, below the anticipated $4.88, although revenues of $16.57 billion beat estimates by 1.32% [6] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$60.18 billion in June, significantly better than the projected -$61.0 billion and down from -$75.5 billion the previous month [7] Economic Indicators - The final PMI on S&P and ISM Services for July is expected to be released, with previous S&P print at 52.9 and ISM at 50.8, now anticipated to increase to 51.1 [8] Upcoming Earnings - The week is busy for Q2 earnings reports, with notable tech firms like Advanced Micro Devices, Arista Networks, and Skyworks Solutions set to report, along with Amgen, Snap, Match Group, and Trivago [9]

But first, breaking economic data just crossing the tape. Rick Santelli has that for us. Hi Rick. Hi Lesie.Indeed, we had S&P Global final reads for July. Now we're having ISM service sector PMIs. These are fresh first time look at July.Expecting 51 a halfish on the headline comes in light 50.1% sequentially lower and light expectations. the weakest since well just a couple months ago, May of this year. If you look at prices paid, it's going in the wrong direction.69.9% following 67.5%, well above expectati ...

Key Takeaways from July PMI Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing the **July PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)** data which indicates a softening growth trend in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The July manufacturing PMI registered at **49.3**, below expectations (Consensus: **49.7**; June: **49.7**), indicating broad-based weakness primarily due to weaker demand and modest production cuts linked to anti-involution measures [5][8]. 2. **New Orders and Export Orders**: New orders decreased by **0.8 percentage points** to **49.4**, while new export orders fell by **0.6 percentage points** to **47.1**, reflecting a decline in demand [2][6]. 3. **Production and Employment**: Production softened to **50.5** (down **0.5 percentage points**), and employment remained weak at **48.0**, indicating challenges in labor demand [2][6]. 4. **Non-Manufacturing PMI**: The non-manufacturing PMI also declined to **50.1**, with construction activities particularly affected, dropping **2.2 percentage points** due to adverse weather conditions [2][8]. 5. **Price Indices**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to improve slightly to **-0.2%** month-on-month in July (from **-0.4%** in June), with a year-on-year change edging up to **-3.5%** [3][8]. 6. **GDP Growth Outlook**: Real GDP growth is projected to slip to **4.5%** in Q3 (compared to **5.2%** in Q2), influenced by factors such as export front-loading and limited new stimulus measures [4][8]. Additional Important Points - **Consumer Sentiment**: The service PMI remained subdued at **50**, reflecting sluggish consumer sentiment, which may impact future demand [2][8]. - **Upstream Pricing**: There is a modest sequential rise in input prices (up **3.1 percentage points** to **51.5**), but output prices showed a milder contraction (up **2.1 percentage points** to **48.3**), indicating limited passthrough amid soft final demand [3][8]. - **Weather Impact**: Adverse weather conditions have notably affected construction activities, contributing to the decline in non-manufacturing PMI [2][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the July PMI conference call, highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, along with the implications for economic growth and consumer sentiment.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, specifically analyzing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2023. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July from 49.7 in June, which is below market expectations. The new orders sub-index saw the most significant decrease, dropping to 49.4 from 50.2, indicating a contraction in demand [1][3][10]. 2. **Non-Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1 in July from 50.5 in June, slightly below market expectations. This decline was primarily driven by a slowdown in the construction sector, which fell notably to 50.6 from 52.8 [1][9][10]. 3. **Adverse Weather Impact**: The weakness in the July PMIs is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall, which affected construction activity [1][10]. 4. **Trade-Related Sub-Indexes**: The manufacturing new export order sub-index decreased to 47.1 in July from 47.7 in June, indicating a decline in export demand. The import sub-index remained flat at 47.8 [4][8]. 5. **Price Dynamics**: The input cost sub-index increased to 51.5 from 48.4, while the output prices sub-index rose to 48.3 from 46.2, suggesting that deflationary pressures have eased somewhat due to recent increases in commodity prices [8][10]. 6. **Sector-Specific Performance**: Certain sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and electronics showed output and new orders sub-indexes above 50, while sectors like chemical raw materials and cement remained below 50, indicating contraction [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Employment Sub-Index**: The employment sub-index inched up to 48.0 from 47.9, suggesting a slight improvement in employment conditions despite overall PMI declines [3]. - **Enterprise Size Impact**: The PMI for large enterprises fell to 50.3 from 51.2, while small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4 from 47.3. Medium enterprises, however, experienced a rise to 49.5 from 48.6 [8]. - **Government Policy Influence**: The government's focus on addressing overcapacity and excessive price competition is impacting the manufacturing sector, as indicated by the contrasting trends in output and price sub-indexes [1][10]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, highlighting the challenges posed by weather conditions and government policies.

Economic Indicators - China's July Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI reached 52.6, exceeding expectations of 50.4 [1] - The Composite PMI registered 50.8 [1] - China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, below the anticipated 50.4 [2] Service Sector Performance - Service sector new business volume experienced a notable increase, marking a one-year high [1] - The improvement was attributed to enhanced basic demand and successful business expansion [1] - Foreign demand rebounded for the first time in three months, driven by increased tourism and stable trade conditions, leading to the highest export order growth since February [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - China's manufacturing output experienced its second decline since October 2023 [3] - Surveyed companies attributed the production decrease to a slowdown in new order growth [3] - Manufacturers reported weak foreign demand, with new export orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month and at an accelerated pace compared to June [3] Cost Pressure - Average input costs continued to rise in July due to increased raw material, fuel, and payroll expenses [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国香港7月标普全球制造业PMI为49.2，前值47.8。 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 2012 31 2025-08-04 F3014717 Z0013223 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品大幅走弱，其中，工业品、农产品同步下跌。主要原因一是美国如期在8月1日征收关税，二是美联储按兵不动，基调偏鹰，压制市场的风险偏 | | | 好；三是，国内政策预期明显降温，一方面增量政策预期落空，另一方面反内卷政策低于预期。 1）当地时间7月31日，特朗普签署"进一步修改对等关税税率"行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的10%~41%不等的新对等关税税率，并于8月7日正式生效。 | | | 2）美国联邦公开市场委员会以9票赞成，2票反对，连续第五次会议维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变。此前金融市场普遍预期央行将在9月降息，但鲍威尔认为经 济未来面临的部分风险有所上升，并对此表示"下结论为时尚早"，被解读为鹰派表态。3）美国二季度实际GDP环比大幅回升同比持平于2.0%，其中居民消费、 | | | 非住宅投资增长势头较为强劲，净出口逆差收窄，呈现出超预期的总体韧性。4）7月非农数据显示美国劳动力市场正 ...

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,507 points, down 265 points or 1.1%[1] - Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3,559 points, down 13 points or 0.37%[2] - S&P 500 Index fell by 101 points or 1.6%, closing at 6,238 points[3] Economic Indicators - PBOC conducted a 126 billion RMB reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%[2] - China's July manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, below expectations[2] - U.S. July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below expectations[3] Sector Performance - A-share indices showed mixed performance with military and brokerage stocks declining, while traditional Chinese medicine and photovoltaic sectors rose[2] - BYD reported July production of 317,892 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%[5] - Xinyi Glass reported a 9.7% decline in revenue to 9.821 billion RMB for the six months ending June[5] OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, totaling approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand[4]

工业硅周报 反内卷情绪降温，工业硅大幅回落 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅大幅回落，主因国内反内卷情绪降温，光伏中 下游产业链主动收缩产能对硅料需求形成挤压，美国对等 关税落地拖累经济增长前景和全球工业品总需求。供应来 看，新疆地区开工率维持48%，川滇地区开工率回升至3成 附近，内蒙和甘肃产量弱稳运行，供应端仍在继续收缩； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场主要以历史订单补单成交为 主，上周价格稳定在45元/千克左右；硅片市场受原料成 本大幅抬升继续推涨报价，但当前售价并不能完全覆盖成 本，受出口退税影响电池订单短期持续向好；光伏电池市 场受集中式项目订单显著下降影响，价格上行空间有限， Topcon183N上周成交区间继续上行至0.29-0.3元/瓦，厂 商扩产意愿较为谨慎；组件端国内呈现有价无市格局，分 布式组件需求难有增量，仅靠HJT大尺寸组件溢价程度相 对较高出货较为坚挺，若原料不再继续走高，组件或进入 震荡走弱阶段，社会库存上周升至54万吨，工业硅现货市 场因盘面高位大幅回落受到承压。 ⚫ 整体来看，国内商品市场反内卷情绪有所降温，美国对等 关税落地或拖累全球经济增长，中国7月官方制造业PMI边 际萎缩拖累 ...