Economic Overview - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1][7] - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year increase [1][7] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales in June were 37,649 billion yuan, also growing by 4.8% [1][7] - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 74,295 billion yuan, with an 8.5% year-on-year growth [7] Consumer Behavior - The average working hours for employees have increased from 47.43 hours in 2021 to 49.1 hours in January 2025, which may negatively impact consumer spending time [3][4] - The decline in consumer spending time is particularly affecting service consumption, which has strict time requirements [3] Policy and Initiatives - The government is implementing "anti-involution" policies aimed at encouraging paid leave and flexible work schedules to boost consumption [4] - The "Promoting Consumption Special Action Plan" includes initiatives like exploring spring and autumn breaks for schools [4] Company News - Marriott International announced that CFO Leeny Oberg will retire in 2026 after 26 years with the company, with Jen Mason and Shawn Hill set to take over her roles [8][9] - Tianrun Dairy's major shareholder reduced its holdings of convertible bonds by 101.61 million units, representing 10.26% of the total issued [10] - Good Idea expects a net loss of 15 to 25 million yuan for the first half of 2025, while also projecting a significant increase in net profit after excluding non-recurring items [11] - Maiqu'er anticipates a net profit increase of 102.17% to 103.11% for the first half of 2025 [12] Market Trends - The Shanghai Consumer 80 Index closed at 4,759.65 points, with a slight increase of 0.07% [6] - Douyin is investing hundreds of millions in subsidies to enhance its local lifestyle business, particularly in the hotel sector [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant recovery and growth of China's consumer market in the first half of the year, driven by effective policy measures and increased domestic demand [1][2][3] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 0.4 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% of this contribution, indicating that consumption is the main driver of economic growth [1] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has not only stimulated current consumption but also fostered new concepts such as green and smart consumption, promoting a positive interaction between industrial and consumption upgrades [2] - The Chinese government has been expanding its visa-free "circle" to boost international inbound tourism and consumption, while cities like Beijing and Shanghai are actively developing international consumption centers [2] - New consumer demands are emerging rapidly, with major cities witnessing increased market activity and innovative cultural and sports consumption scenarios being developed in lower-tier cities [2] Group 3 - The consumer market in China is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption [3] - There is significant room for existing policies to continue supporting consumption and improving livelihoods, with 138 billion yuan in central funds set to be distributed in the latter half of the year to support the "old for new" consumption initiative [3] - The cumulative effect of the "old for new" policy and other consumption-promoting measures is anticipated to enhance market performance, leading to a potential upward trend in consumer activity [3]

"对下半年消费，我们仍然充满乐观预期。"盛来运说，消费要持续健康发展必须要提高居民收入水平， 要进一步改善消费环境。中央政策以及相关部门出台的措施都在继续推进，各地还要进一步落实好中央 扩内需政策要求，按照消费提升行动方案部署，进一步"稳就业、促增收"，改善消费环境，增加优质消 费供给，推动消费市场持续健康发展。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) 他强调，中国正处在消费结构升级的关键阶段，人均GDP(国内生产总值)连续两年稳定在1.3万美元以 上。这个阶段正是消费升级的关键时期，文化旅游、医疗健康、养老消费空间广阔。另外，现在城乡差 距还较大，中国消费水平尤其是人均水平，跟一些发达国家相比还有很大差距，差距就是成长的空间。 这也意味着中国未来的消费成长性非常好，市场空间非常广阔。 中国国家统计局副局长盛来运15日在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上指出，上半年中国消费市场发展 态势向好。展望后期，消费政策还会继续加力。下半年刺激消费补贴政策已在陆续出台，各地也会继续 出台相关措施促消费。 盛来运指出，今年中国消费市场表现可圈可点，上半年消费对经济增长的贡献率达到52%。同时，上半 年中国消费市场，在一系列扩内需、促消费政策带 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and financial regulatory authorities are closely monitoring issues within the automotive dealership industry [1] - A recent meeting organized by the National Federation of Industry and Commerce's Automotive Dealers Chamber included 45 automotive dealers and local chamber representatives [1] - The financial sector aims to analyze the root causes of the problems reported by enterprises and develop more suitable policy measures in line with national consumption promotion and vehicle trade-in policies [1] Group 2 - The chamber will collect and organize feedback and suggestions from meeting participants, along with insights from its own research, to create a meeting summary for submission to relevant national departments [1]

Group 1: Retail Market Performance - In Q2, Shanghai's retail market showed improved leasing demand with a net absorption of 156,000 square meters, driven by "consumption promotion" policies and emerging consumption trends [1] - Major brands, including luxury and sports brands, are increasingly interested in opening flagship and concept stores in core business districts, with Louis Vuitton recently launching a new landmark in Shanghai [1] - The vacancy rate in core business districts decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.6%, while the vacancy rate in non-core areas slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 14.1% due to ongoing market competition [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Rental prices in Shanghai's retail properties continued to decline, with core district first-floor average rent decreasing by 1.1% to CNY 43.1 per square meter per day, and non-core area rent down by 1.8% to CNY 15 per square meter per day [2] - Landlords are offering rental discounts and attractive leasing terms to attract brands amid competitive market pressures [2] - Despite challenges, demand for leasing in sectors like sports apparel, trendy toys, and affordable dining is expected to grow due to consumer focus on health and entertainment [2] Group 3: Residential Market Insights - In Q2, Shanghai's overall new residential sales volume increased by 14.0% to 1.7 million square meters, with high-end residential sales showing a decline of 21.2% [2] - The pace of new residential project launches accelerated, with 1.67 million square meters of new supply introduced, a 114.5% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The average price of new high-end residential properties rose by 0.6% to CNY 147,900 per square meter, while the average price of second-hand high-end residential properties fell by 2.0% to CNY 132,800 per square meter [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June after four consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [2][3] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) continued to face downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting weak domestic demand and excess supply in the market [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in CPI was less severe than seasonal trends, with food prices dropping by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices saw a slight increase due to rising international oil prices [3][4] - Certain consumer goods, such as gold and platinum jewelry, experienced significant price increases of 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year, respectively, driven by changes in international commodity prices [2][4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is expected to support price stability and recovery in various sectors, including automotive and household appliances [1][5] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with pressures from domestic demand weakness and external factors such as tariffs and slowing foreign demand [4][5] - Some industries, particularly high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, indicating potential growth opportunities [5] - The overall economic environment remains complex, but macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating consumption are anticipated to gradually restore domestic demand [5]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [1][3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal price decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and price pressures in export-oriented industries [5][6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, prices for both gasoline and new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing prices fell by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech industries such as integrated circuit packaging and testing saw price increases of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a growth in new production capacities and innovation [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The government aims to balance the expansion of domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and promote reasonable price recovery [7][8] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector, will significantly influence future industrial product price trends [6]

Group 1 - The core initiative "Wan Qian Bai Yi" by the Bank of China aims to boost domestic demand and consumption by providing over 1 trillion yuan in loans, creating 100 billion yuan in property income, and offering 10 billion yuan in consumer subsidies and fee reductions, benefiting over 100 million consumers [1][3] - The "Zhonghang Hui Chutou · Summer Season" campaign focuses on enhancing consumer experiences in tourism, cross-border spending, youth campus activities, and night market economies, providing various discounts and benefits to encourage spending [1][2][3] - The campaign is designed to be ongoing, with seasonal promotions planned for summer, National Day, and New Year, creating a stable rhythm for annual consumption stimulation [2][3] Group 2 - The "Zhonghang Hui Chutou" initiative targets four key consumption areas: tourism, night markets, cross-border spending, and youth campuses, aiming to engage younger consumers and families [5][6] - Specific discounts include tiered payment reductions for travel-related expenses, such as flights and hotel bookings, significantly lowering travel costs for consumers [5][6] - The campaign also integrates local food culture by partnering with popular street food districts, offering payment discounts to enhance local consumption and support small businesses [6] Group 3 - The initiative includes a special focus on young consumers, particularly targeting graduates with exclusive offers such as flight discount coupons for students who meet certain transaction criteria [7] - The overall strategy is to inject strong financial momentum into the domestic summer consumption wave, encouraging consumers to utilize Bank of China cards for a more economical and enjoyable spending experience [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond price is steadily recovering, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index. The convertible bond market and equity market declined due to Trump's tariff hikes but gradually recovered. Multiple industries and individual bonds saw price increases, and the convertible bond valuation is differentiated with the overall conversion premium rate decreasing [3][103]. - The issuance pace of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing amount is at a relatively low level. The pre - issuance scale varies among different industries, with the high - end manufacturing industry having a relatively large pre - issuance scale. The un - converted balance of convertible bonds also shows significant differences among industries [3][103]. - The tariff disturbance is coming to an end, and the negative impact of tariffs on the convertible bond market will fade. The US is facing inflation pressure, and it has started economic and trade consultations with many countries, so high tariffs are expected to be unsustainable [3][76][103]. - Policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are frequently introduced. As the policy effects continue to emerge, the upward trend of relevant convertible bonds is expected to continue. The growth rate of necessary consumption is constantly recovering, and the "trade - in" policy promotes the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [4][104]. - The profitability of multiple underlying stock industries has improved, and the net profit of individual bonds has increased, further enhancing the intrinsic value of convertible bonds. Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [6][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bonds: Price Steadily Recovering, Individual Bond Valuation Volatility and Differentiation - **The convertible bond and equity indexes first declined and then rose, and the bond yield fluctuated downward**: Affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff", the domestic equity market declined in the second quarter and then gradually recovered. The bond market yield showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy [10][11]. - **The convertible bond and equity indexes are highly correlated, and the convertible bond index outperforms the equity index**: The convertible bond market index and the equity market index have a similar trend, and the convertible bond index has a higher return rate. The convertible bond index also shows a certain correlation with the bond yield [15][16]. - **Multiple convertible bond industries rose, and the rise - fall direction is consistent with that of the underlying stocks**: Most convertible bond industries showed an upward trend, and the rise - fall amplitude of convertible bond industries was relatively less differentiated compared to that of underlying stock industries [22]. - **Most individual bond prices rose, and the proportion of rising bonds in many industries exceeded half**: Most convertible bonds rose compared to the previous quarter. In different industries, the number of rising convertible bonds was large, and the price fluctuations of individual convertible bonds were relatively large [25]. - **The convertible bond valuation is differentiated, and the overall conversion premium rate is decreasing**: The conversion premium rate of most individual bonds is decreasing, and there is no significant correlation between the conversion premium rate and the bond balance. The different quantiles of the conversion premium rate of individual bonds have all decreased [29]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Net Financing is at a Low Level, and the Supply Pace is Slowing Down - **The issuance of convertible bonds has slowed down, and the net financing is at a low level in the same period**: The issuance scale of convertible bonds has decreased, and the net financing amount is at a low level. The maturity scale of convertible bonds is relatively stable and at a low level [35]. - **The pre - issuance of different industries is differentiated, and the high - end manufacturing industry has a large scale**: The pre - issuance scale of convertible bonds is relatively sufficient, and there are significant differences among different industries. The high - end manufacturing industry has a relatively high pre - issuance scale [37]. - **The proportion of un - converted balance of convertible bonds is relatively high, and there are significant industry differences**: Most convertible bonds still have a relatively high balance. The proportion of the convertible bond balance to the initial issuance scale varies greatly among different industries [38]. 3.3 Tariff Disturbance is Approaching the End, and the External Negative Impact on the Convertible Bond Market is Fading - **Trump imposed tariffs randomly, covering goods from multiple countries and multiple fields**: Trump's government imposed several rounds of tariffs on goods exported to the US in 2025, involving goods from multiple countries and a wide range of products [43]. - **Tariffs impacted the equity and convertible bond indexes to decline and then gradually recovered steadily**: Trump's tariff hikes caused a sharp decline in the US equity market index, an increase in the demand for bond hedging, and a decrease in the US Treasury bond yield. As the tariffs eased, the US stock index gradually recovered, and the US Treasury bond yield gradually rebounded. In China, the A - share market, Treasury bond yield, and convertible bond market index also declined due to tariff impacts but gradually recovered [48][49][52]. - **Exports increased against the trend, and the impact of tariffs on investment and consumption has not yet appeared**: In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to increase, and the import growth rate continued to improve. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value was not significantly affected by tariffs, but the manufacturing PMI was significantly affected. In terms of investment, the impact of tariffs on fixed - asset investment and its main components has not yet appeared. The consumption growth rate increased marginally, and the consumer and producer price indexes decreased marginally [56][60][62]. - **Tariffs are unsustainable, and the external impact on the convertible bond market is expected to fade**: Trump's tariff hikes are likely a means to expand revenue, and the impact of tariffs in the first half of the year is expected to gradually subside. The US is facing inflation pressure, and high tariffs may prevent prices from falling. The US has conducted consultations on economic and trade issues with many countries, so high tariffs are not expected to last [76][77]. 3.4 Policies to Promote Consumption are Continuously Advancing, and the Upward Trend of Relevant Convertible Bonds is Expected to Continue - **Favorable policies to promote consumption are frequently introduced, and the recovery progress of necessary consumption is accelerating**: A series of favorable policies and specific measures to promote consumption have been introduced, and the support for consumption is extensive. The recovery progress of necessary consumption has accelerated, and the "trade - in" policy has promoted the consumption growth of household appliances and communication equipment [78][81][86]. - **The convertible bond consumption sector as a whole rose, and the rise - fall of individual bonds is differentiated**: Benefiting from the multiple favorable policies to promote consumption, the prices of convertible bonds in consumption - related fields generally increased, but the rise - fall of individual bonds was differentiated [90]. - **The "trade - in" policy continues to advance, and attention should be paid to the over - heating risk of new consumption**: The favorable policies to promote consumption are still advancing, and it is expected that consumption will remain an important engine for economic growth in the second half of the year. The continuous advancement of the "trade - in" policy is expected to continue to benefit the convertible bonds in related consumption fields. Attention should be paid to new consumption formats such as self - pleasing consumption and the "gacha economy", but the short - term over - heating risk should be noted [93][94][95]. 3.5 The Performance of Underlying Stocks has Improved, and the Intrinsic Value of Convertible Bonds may be Further Enhanced - **The net profit of underlying stock industries has achieved positive growth, and the net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved overall**: Most underlying stock industries have positive median net profit growth rates both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The net profit of individual bond underlying stocks has improved comprehensively compared to the previous quarter [96][99]. - **Most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth, and their performance is moderate compared to listed companies in the same industry**: Compared with listed companies in the same industry that have not issued convertible bonds, the net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is moderate. The net profit growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks is differentiated, and in some industries, most underlying stocks have positive net profit growth rates [101]. 3.6 Convertible Bond Strategy: It is Recommended to Focus on Convertible Bonds for Expanding Domestic Demand, High Dividends, and High Growth - It is recommended to focus on the following main lines in the convertible bond market: expanding domestic demand, especially in the fields related to boosting consumption; high - dividend sectors such as banks; and individual bonds with high - growth underlying stocks [6][106].

Core Viewpoint - The central government and local authorities have launched a series of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to sustain consumer demand growth in the second half of the year, with service consumption emerging as a new driving force [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A joint document by the central bank and six departments was released in late June, introducing 19 new policies aimed at enhancing financial support for consumption, including innovative financial products and increasing property income [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a campaign for the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, running from July to December, focusing on vehicle exchanges and creating diverse consumption scenarios [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu have rolled out special action plans to boost consumption, featuring unique activities [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate a third batch of funds for the replacement of consumer goods, with a national subsidy plan in place [1] - An estimated 1,380 billion yuan in funds is expected to stimulate consumption by 700 to 900 billion yuan in the second half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The retail sales total is projected to grow by approximately 6% year-on-year in 2025, with an anticipated increase of 1 percentage point in growth rate for the second half of the year [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive sales, and service consumption is likely to peak during holiday seasons [1] - Experts predict a recovery in consumption trends, emphasizing the importance of structural changes and the rise of online consumption, with a shift towards green, smart, and personalized consumption driven by digital technologies [1]