宏观•要闻 《民营经济促进法》出台 4月30日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过《民营经济促进法》出台，自2025年5月20日起 施行。民促法是我国首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法律，从"公平竞争""投资融资促进""科技创 新"，到"规范经营""服务保障""权益保护"，民促法对民营企业发展中的重点关切予以积极回应。 商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问 5月2日，商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况称，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问 题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方 正在进行评估。 蓝佛安：更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文章《更加积极财政政 策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰富内容和实施重点。文章指出，2024年出台 的一批有针对性的财政增量政策，是我国财政宏观调控史上的一次重大创新。具体包括一次性增加6万 亿元地方专项债务限额置换存量隐性债务，加力支持地方化解债务风险；研究发行特别国债支持国有大 型商业银行补充核心一级资本 ...

本周券商策略分析师普遍认为，节后A股"开门红"值得期待，整个5月市场可能会呈现"权重指数稳定，科技成长活跃"的格局。 华西策略李立峰团队称，五一假期期间，中美经贸缓和预期促使全球风险偏好回暖，人民币汇率快速升值并带动中国权益资产大 幅反弹，节后A股"开门红"值得期待。 结构上， AI+有望成为5月重要主线。一方面，海外厂商AI领域资本开支维持高增，国内科技产业也处于向上突破的关键节点，5 月AI领域事件催化仍多；另一方面，强调自立自强和应用导向，中长期国内AI产业链、AI应用发展均蕴藏巨大潜力。 中信策略裘翔团队称，关税战至今，全球主流风险资产价格基本都回到原点，表明"交易事实，而非预期"应该是贸易战之下应对 不确定性的第一原则；展望5月，"为签而签"可能成为海外叙事逻辑，预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主 题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓的主题型交易机会为主。 更多券商策略观点如下： | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 关税战至今,全球主流风险资产价格基本都 回到原点,表明"交易 ...

中信证券：5月A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征；中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波 段策略为主；申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向。 ②中信建投：操作上以震荡区间低买高卖波段策略为主 中信建投认为，展望后市，只要情绪指数处于50以上，且全A指数处于年线和半年线上方，都应该维持 战略性乐观判断，配置半仓以上仓位。整体看，当前市场已经进入窄幅震荡区间，情绪指数波动带来的 右侧买卖信号作用下降，建议投资者更关注情绪指数整体水平和分项指标的提示意义，操作上以震荡区 间低买高卖波段策略为主。 ③平安证券：政策呵护、内需韧性与科技自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间 平安证券指出，综合来看，五一假期出行旅游、观影消费数据亮眼，伴随国内政策加速落地显效，消费 对经济增长的推动力将持续强化，同时AI科技革命与自主可控逻辑不变，政策呵护、内需韧性与科技 自主可控将继续支撑A股市场向上空间。结构上建议关注两条主线：一是国产科技自主可控（新质生产 力、先进制造、国防军工等）；二是受益于扩内需政策支持，基本面预期修复且具备估值性价比的内循 环消费优质资产。 ④申万宏源：消费和科技都是景气方向 申万宏源表示，维持二季度震荡市判断。 ...

关税战至今，主流风险资产价格 基本都回到原点 特朗普宣布"对等关税"以来，全球主要股指都经历了一轮- 2 0%至- 5%的明显回撤，但目前印 度NIFTY5 0、日经2 2 5、韩国综合指数、纳斯达克指数、标普5 0 0均已经完全修复并录得正收 益，欧洲STOXX6 0 0也基本修复（- 0 . 1%），东盟国家股指（除了越南）也都已经转正。全球 投 资 者 似 乎 已 经 非 常 乐 观 地 在 定 价 大 范 围 的 关 税 战 不 会 产 生 持 续 性 的 影 响 。 大 宗 商 品 市 场 方 面，除了贵金属和农产品实现正收益外，铝、镍和铜等反映工业品需求的商品自4月2日至5月 2 日 累 计 跌 幅 仅 有 - 2 . 9% 、 - 3 . 0% 和 - 3 . 5% ， 基 本 修 复 了 期 间 最 大 回 撤 （ - 8 . 3% 、 - 11 . 8% 和- 11 . 2%），而原油、集运等反映全球贸易和消费需求的品种则基本没有反弹，期间分别录 得- 1 8 . 6%和- 3 8 . 3%的跌幅。 这是一种非常罕见的定价组合，意味着全球投资者认为关税战会 对贸易和消费产生重大冲击，但股票市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the initiative in Zhejiang province to promote foreign trade products in domestic markets, particularly during the "May Day" holiday, as part of the national "dual circulation" strategy to expand sales channels for foreign trade enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Engagement - During the "May Day" holiday, consumers in Hangzhou showed significant interest in foreign trade products, purchasing items such as scented candles and fresh food in designated areas [1]. - Retailers have established special sections for foreign trade products, significantly reducing the time required for products to be shelved, exemplified by a foreign trade company's shrimp product being available for sale within 72 hours [2]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies - Zhejiang province has launched various promotional activities, including "Foreign Trade Products on Highways," to leverage traffic at service areas for showcasing and selling products [2]. - The initiative includes a focus on adapting product packaging to better suit consumer preferences, leading to increased sales, as seen with a 30% price reduction on car air fresheners [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Innovation - E-commerce is a crucial component in helping foreign trade enterprises penetrate domestic markets, with significant efforts being made to collect demand information from over 100 foreign trade companies [4]. - The shift towards domestic sales is seen as an opportunity for foreign trade companies, particularly in sectors like scented products, as consumer demand for quality and lifestyle products continues to grow [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The dual approach of offline exhibitions and online marketing is injecting new momentum into the Zhejiang consumer market, facilitating the transformation of foreign trade and consumption upgrades [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the busy operations at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, particularly in the context of international trade and logistics, emphasizing the importance of efficient shipping channels for exporters [2][4]. Group 1: Export Activities - Export activities are notably active as companies prepare for shipments, with specific examples such as a shipment of nearly 10,000 plastic Christmas trees to Naples, Italy [2]. - The logistics company, Yiwudexiang, utilizes Yiwupor as a primary export channel, benefiting from its proximity to the international trade city [3]. Group 2: Port Development and Efficiency - Yiwupor is enhancing its capabilities by developing the "Sixth Port Area" to facilitate smoother international trade operations, aiming to extend port services inland [3]. - The "Sixth Port Area" reported a throughput of 165,000 TEUs in Q1, marking a 5.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in container handling and logistics efficiency [3]. Group 3: Overall Port Performance - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is projected to handle 1.38 billion tons of cargo and 39.3 million TEUs in 2024, maintaining its position as a global leader in port operations [4]. - In Q1, the port achieved a container throughput of 10.072 million TEUs, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong start to the year [4]. Group 4: National Port Statistics - Nationally, ports completed a cargo throughput of 4.22 billion tons in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and container throughput of 83.03 million TEUs, up 8.2% [5]. - The external trade container throughput reached 50.44 million TEUs, growing by 11.5%, showcasing resilience in international trade despite global challenges [5].

5月1日，南宁国际会展中心A馆热闹非凡，中国—东盟优品展销中心（以下简称"展销中心"）正式揭幕 运营。依托南宁国际会展中心人流量优势，以及广西会展经济强劲的辐射动能，展销中心为市民带来全 新消费体验，也为区域经贸发展注入新活力。 图为揭幕运营仪式现场。主办方供图 走进展销中心，琳琅满目的商品让人应接不暇。从独具风情的东盟优品、品质上乘的俄罗斯甄选好物， 到广西"桂字号"、"老字号"领军品牌，展销中心首批上架特色商品超2000余款，以国企品质、物美价优 等优势，迅速成为市民消费的首选之地。 展销中心不单是汇聚国内、国际特色商品的销售场所，还是广西国企品牌的全方位展示舞台，更是集产 品展销、经贸促进、文化交流、电商孵化等多功能于一体的综合性经贸平台，兼具公益与经贸双重属 性。 "我们以国企担当筑牢品质防线，通过'源头直供'压缩流通成本，让广西国企好物、全球特色商品以惠 民价格直达百姓生活。"广西国际博览集团党委书记、董事长胡志崇说。 开业仪式上，展销中心与广投集团、广西农垦、广旅集团、柳钢集团、广西供销社、广西国宏集团等众 多区直国企，以及丹泉酒业、花香六堡茶厂等广西本土知名品牌进行签约，携手构建"国企优品联盟" ...

就在4月的最后几天，中国贸促会举办的新闻发布会上，公开了一份非常敏感的数据报告。针对中国1100多家外贸企业的调查问卷显示，近50%的企业表 示会减少对美业务，而75.3%的企业考虑开拓新兴市场，减少对美国贸易占比。毫不客气的说，这份报告数据，信号非常强烈，直接击穿了当前的中美关 系。最后的"压舱石"正在沉底。 很直观的说，当前的中美经贸关系，已经在过去几年，发生了结构性剧变。2025年1至3月，中美货物贸易额仅占中国进出口总额的11.2%，这一比例甚至 低于2001年中国加入WTO时的水平。美国从中国第一大贸易伙伴跌至第三，被东盟、欧盟反超。与此同时，中国对"一带一路"沿线国家贸易额占比攀升 至42%，RCEP框架下的原产地证书签发量同比增长27%。 更深远的结构性矛盾在于，美国无法接受中国在高端制造业的崛起。中国制造业占全球比重达28.7%，半导体自给率从2018年的15%跃升至2025年的 45%，新能源汽车全球市场份额突破60%。当"中国制造"从袜子升级至芯片，美国的技术霸权遭遇釜底抽薪，只能用"制裁""处罚"，来延缓衰落进程。 必须指出的是，当压舱石沉底，中美关系将步入"零和博弈"的危险水域。现在一 ...

Core Insights - The event "Green Source: Qinghai Treasures Enter Shanghai" showcased 50 categories of unique products from 43 Qinghai enterprises, including Tibetan carpets, Qing embroidery, goji berries, and quinoa, during the Shanghai "Five-Five Shopping Festival" [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event took place from April 30 to May 1, featuring a variety of ecological highland products and immersive experiences for attendees [1][3] - Qinghai's cultural and tourism department promoted the province as an international tourism destination, with Olympic champion Qieyang Shenjie endorsing Qinghai products [3] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - Attendees could use a stamp card to explore and taste health-oriented products, learn about lake salt characteristics, and hear stories about intangible cultural heritage at eight distinct product points [3] - The event utilized a "government subsidy + enterprise discount" model to distribute consumption vouchers online, aiming to broaden consumer reach [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The "Shanghai-Qinghai Quality Products Standard System" version 1.0 was launched to facilitate the entry of Qinghai's organic agricultural products into the Shanghai and Yangtze River Delta markets [5] - Qinghai's Commerce Department emphasized the event as a practical implementation of new development concepts, leveraging Shanghai's status as an international consumption hub to integrate into domestic and international dual circulation [5] Group 4: Culinary Promotion - A tasting promotion for Qinghai's "Home Banquet" was held, featuring collaboration between Hong Kong's Maxim's Group chef and Qinghai noodle artisans, highlighting the natural purity and nutritional value of Qinghai ingredients [7] - The initiative aims to introduce more highland health food ingredients into Shanghai's dining market, enhancing the collaboration between Qinghai and Shanghai and supporting rural revitalization and consumption promotion [7]

Group 1 - Japan became the world's leading manufacturing power with significant trade surpluses with the US, leading to trade tensions and economic transformations from export-driven to domestic demand and overseas investment [1] - Japan's historical economic transitions provide valuable lessons for China, which faces similar challenges such as export bottlenecks, aging population, and industrial upgrading pressures [1] Group 2 - The "Income Doubling Plan" initiated by Japan in 1960 aimed at aggressive income distribution reform, resulting in an average annual wage growth of 10.6% over ten years and a GDP growth rate of 9.8% before the 1973 oil crisis [3] - This plan led to a significant increase in urbanization from 58% to 76%, creating the world's largest middle-class consumer group, but also revealed structural issues like labor market rigidity and rising income inequality [3][4] Group 3 - Following the Plaza Accord, Japan's export profits were severely impacted, prompting the government to implement the "Black字环流计划" to encourage overseas investment through tax deductions, low-interest loans, and investment insurance [6] - By 2022, Japan's overseas net assets reached approximately 411 trillion yen (about $2.8 trillion), equivalent to 75% of its domestic GDP, creating a unique "shadow Japan" [6] Group 4 - Despite generating around 20 trillion yen in annual investment income from overseas assets, Japan's domestic economy faced "industrial hollowing" and deflation, with manufacturing's GDP share declining from 22% in 1995 to 18% in 2022 [8] - The over-reliance on overseas production led to stagnation in key industries, with South Korea's Samsung increasing its DRAM market share from 3% in 1990 to 43% in 2022 [9] Group 5 - China currently faces a historical opportunity similar to Japan's, with a manufacturing value-added share of 30% globally and foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3 trillion, but labor costs nearing OECD averages [11] - To learn from Japan's experience, China should focus on balancing industrial upgrades with overseas expansion, ensuring domestic innovation ecosystems are nurtured alongside asset accumulation [11][12] Group 6 - Recommendations for China include maintaining over 51% domestic R&D intensity in strategic sectors, designing mechanisms for capital output and profit repatriation, and innovating social security systems to address aging populations [12][13] - The integration of digital currency for cross-border settlements and leveraging industrial internet can help China establish a development model distinct from Japan's [13]