Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that a well-known institution predicts a potential decline in Malaysian crude palm oil futures this week, highlighting specific support and resistance levels [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the support level for Malaysian crude palm oil futures is identified, which may influence trading strategies [1] - The resistance level is also mentioned, providing insights into market dynamics and potential price movements [1]

期货盯盘神器专属文章 烧碱创一个多月以来新低，但6月是一年中维护检修最多的时期，叠加氧化铝工厂有补库需求，未来或 不宜过度悲观？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) will maintain a weak and volatile trend [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply is in a strong and loose pattern, with the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region reaching 42 million tons due to increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratios [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter as ICE raw sugar prices triggered domestic purchases earlier [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices, and the import profit has recovered, stimulating subsequent purchases [4] - Low - cost substitutes such as syrups and premixed powders are continuously squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Domestic spot sugar prices vary by region: in Nanning, Guangxi it's 6200 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it's 5945 yuan/ton; in Dali, Yunnan it's 5870 yuan/ton; in Rizhao, Shandong it's 6270 yuan/ton [4] - Futures prices: SR09 is 5763 yuan/ton, down 20; SR01 is 5638 yuan/ton, down 22 [4] - The price difference between SR09 and SR01 is 125, up 2 [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.2035, down 0.0211; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - International sugar prices: the ICE raw sugar main contract is 17.1, up 0.06; the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3 [4] - The price of Brent crude oil main contract is 62.61, down 0.75 [4] Supply - related Information - The expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the global supply - loose pattern [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices to 150 yuan/ton [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixed powders was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

Core Viewpoint - New York copper futures saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 4.5% at one point [1] Group 1 - The surge in copper futures indicates strong market demand and potential bullish sentiment in the commodities sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by export data and support from crude oil prices, but the MACD indicator suggests potential caution for future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Export data has positively influenced the palm oil market, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Crude oil prices are providing additional support to the palm oil market, enhancing its bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is revealing contrasting signals, indicating that while the market is currently strong, there may be underlying risks that could affect future price trends [1]

Core Insights - The aviation fuel market is experiencing a significant shift, referred to as the "golden route," indicating potential premium support for Brent crude oil prices [1] - A market turning point is anticipated next month, which could influence pricing dynamics in the aviation fuel sector [1] Industry Summary - The aviation fuel market is currently under observation for emerging trends that could lead to increased pricing power for Brent crude oil [1] - The potential for a premium on Brent crude oil suggests a favorable outlook for oil producers and related stakeholders in the aviation sector [1] - Upcoming developments in the market are expected to be critical, with a pivotal moment projected for next month that may alter the current trajectory of aviation fuel pricing [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for freight rates to rise due to a surge in shipping demand driven by a trade window period and the approach of the traditional peak season [1] Group 1: Freight Rates and Demand - There is an expectation that freight rates may experience an increase as a result of heightened shipping activity [1] - The upcoming traditional peak season is anticipated to further amplify this demand for shipping services [1] Group 2: Shipping Trends - The article raises questions about when the peak arrival period at ports will occur, indicating a focus on logistics and supply chain dynamics [1] - The current trade window period is identified as a catalyst for a rush in shipping activities, suggesting a temporary spike in demand [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the weak export performance of U.S. soybeans and the uncertainty surrounding biodiesel policies, raising questions about when soybean and soybean oil markets will experience a trend reversal [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Exports - U.S. soybean exports are currently underperforming, indicating a potential challenge for the market [1] - The sluggish export activity may impact pricing and demand dynamics for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 2: Biodiesel Policy Uncertainty - The future of biodiesel policies remains uncertain, which could further complicate the market outlook for soybean oil [1] - The lack of clarity in biodiesel regulations may hinder investment and production decisions within the industry [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of weak exports and unresolved biodiesel policies suggests that a significant market trend for soybeans and soybean oil may not materialize in the near term [1] - Stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments to identify potential investment opportunities or risks [1]

原油系期货主力合约直线拉涨，燃料油涨超3%，SC原油、低硫燃料油涨超2%。 ...