白银进入加速冲顶阶段 贵金属周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 贵金属重点数据概览 | | | 单位 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-24 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 近一年分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX行情区间: | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-20 | | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | 美元/盎司 | 4256 40 . | 4076 70 . | 上 涨 | 4 41% . | 6 45% . | 97 60% . | | | 成交量MA5 | 万手 | 21 05 . | 25 76 . | 下 跌 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to record highs, with COMEX silver reaching $57.245 per ounce and a maximum intraday increase of 6.79% [1] - The London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with an intraday increase of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit a peak of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.55% increase [1] - The driving force behind the rising silver prices is the increasing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline by 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [2] - Despite a slight increase in recycling, the supply deficit is projected to continue for the fifth consecutive year, estimated at 9.5 million ounces [2] - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, providing support for silver prices [2] Group 3 - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [3] - Silver's dual nature as both a financial and industrial metal has led to its price volatility, with periods of correlation and divergence from gold prices [3][4] - The recent trends indicate a shift towards increased industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, suggesting further potential for price increases [5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with silver outperforming gold this year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver futures reached a peak of $57.245 per ounce, marking a new high since the contract's inception, with an intraday increase of 6.79% [1]. - London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a 5.74% increase, breaking historical records [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver futures contract hit a maximum of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5.55% increase and also reaching a historical high [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch tool [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for the December rate cut, citing stable economic data since the last meeting [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while recycling is expected to reach a 13-year high with only a 1% increase [4]. - Despite a projected decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces in 2025 (a 4% decrease), a supply deficit of 95 million ounces is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year [5][4]. - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply is expected to remain short in 2026, supporting price stability [5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [7][10]. - Silver's dual nature as both an industrial and financial asset has led to varied price movements, with its industrial demand becoming a significant factor since 2022, particularly from the solar panel sector [9][11]. - The evolving dynamics of the gold-silver ratio illustrate silver's transition from a secondary role to a more independent market presence, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the context of global energy transitions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, outperforming gold in recent performance [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver futures reached a peak of $57.245 per ounce, marking a new high since the contract's inception, with an intraday increase of 6.79% [1]. - London spot silver also saw significant gains, with a rise of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit 13,239 yuan per kilogram, up 5.55% [1]. - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by over 300% [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is now at 85.4%, as indicated by the CME's FedWatch tool [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for the rate cut, citing stable economic indicators since the last meeting [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts that global silver mining supply will remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, with a projected demand drop to 1.12 billion ounces, a 4% decrease year-on-year [2]. - Despite a slight increase in recycling rates, the supply deficit is expected to persist for the fifth consecutive year, estimated at 9.5 million ounces [2]. - A resource company executive indicated that silver supply shortages are likely to continue into 2026, supporting price stability [2]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Silver has historically followed gold's trends but has exhibited more volatility, with a 301.8% price increase over the last decade [3][5]. - The gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 63 and 122, reflecting silver's evolving role from a secondary asset to a more independent investment [5][6]. - The demand for silver in industrial applications, particularly in solar panels, has become a significant factor, although growth may peak in 2024 [2][6].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a maximum increase of 6.79% during trading [1] - The London spot silver also saw a significant rise, with a peak increase of 5.74%, while domestic futures in China hit a high of 13,239 yuan per kilogram, up 5.55% [1] - The driving force behind the rising silver prices is the increasing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with an 85.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, with a slight increase in recycling but a projected 4% decline in demand to 1.12 billion ounces [3] - Despite the stable industrial demand for silver, a significant supply deficit is anticipated for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, estimated at 95 million ounces [4] - The solar energy sector has emerged as a major variable in silver demand, although it is expected to peak in 2024 and experience a marginal decline in 2025 [4] Group 3 - Over the past decade, silver prices have increased by approximately 301.8%, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating between 63 and 122 [5] - Silver's dual attributes of being both a financial and industrial metal have led to its price volatility, with periods of correlation and divergence from gold prices [7] - The past ten years have seen silver's industrial demand grow, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and semiconductors, indicating potential for further price increases [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are attempting to close above $4240 [1] - The market is reacting to rising US Treasury yields, leading to profit-taking after a strong rebound [4] - The relative strength index remains at a moderate level, indicating potential for additional upward momentum in the short term [4] Group 2: Silver Market - The gold-silver ratio has risen above 79.00, causing silver prices to retreat to the $53.00 level [1][7] - Technically, silver needs to stay above the resistance level of $52.60-$52.80 to gain additional upward momentum in the short term [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum attempted to break through the resistance level of $1620-$1630 but lost momentum and retreated [9] - Platinum remains within the range between support at $1520-$1530 and resistance at $1620-$1630 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic silver futures have surged, reaching a historical high of 12,639 yuan/kg, with London silver also nearing its historical peak of 54.468 USD/oz, driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown and increased liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rebound in silver prices is primarily attributed to the conclusion of the U.S. government shutdown, which is expected to inject liquidity into the market and bolster expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven investments into precious metals, with silver attracting attention due to its significantly lower price compared to gold [3]. - The gold-silver ratio, currently around 78, is a key market indicator reflecting the relative price relationship and differing supply-demand expectations for both metals [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Future Outlook - Historically, when the gold-silver ratio declines, silver, which has stronger industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [5]. - The current environment, characterized by the beginning of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, suggests that the gold-silver ratio may have further room to decline [5]. - Technical analysis indicates that a "cup and handle" pattern for silver prices has been activated, suggesting a strong medium to long-term outlook for silver prices [6]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, has been rising, contributing to lower silver inventories and supporting price increases [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has seen a significant surge, particularly in silver, which has returned to above $50 per ounce after a notable increase of over 4.5% on November 10, 2023 [1] Price Movement - Since early April 2023, the price of silver has risen from just above $28 per ounce to over $54 per ounce by October 16, marking a maximum increase of over 90%, outperforming gold [3] - After a decline post-October 17, where silver prices fell to above $45 per ounce, the market has shown recovery, with prices stabilizing above $50 per ounce as of November 11 [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. government has classified silver as a strategic resource, elevating its status from an industrial commodity to one of national security and technological independence [4] - From 2016 to 2020, total silver supply was 5.087 billion ounces, while total demand was 4.902 billion ounces, indicating a relatively loose supply situation. However, since 2021, global silver demand has exceeded supply, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 210.5 million ounces in 2024 and 187.6 million ounces in 2025 [5] - Silver's role as an industrial material, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, is driving demand. The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 655 GW by 2025, requiring 160 million ounces of silver [5] Market Influences - The rising price of gold, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, U.S. debt crises, and central bank purchases, has also positively impacted silver prices. The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106, providing attractive investment opportunities [6] - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has reduced the opportunity cost of holding silver, attracting more investment into the silver market [6] Future Outlook - Optimistic market views suggest that silver has broken through technical resistance levels, with potential for further increases, possibly reaching $100 per ounce, especially with a declining dollar [6] - Cautious perspectives highlight potential selling pressure above $40 per ounce and the risk of profit-taking if the gold-silver ratio falls below 70 [6][7] - The rising costs of silver may lead the photovoltaic industry to seek "de-silverization" technologies, potentially reducing future demand [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of the lithium sector and the stability of gold prices due to central bank purchases [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the central bank's gold purchases are expected to support a stable gold price outlook, while the lithium sector shows unexpected strength, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these areas [3][4]. - The overall performance of the metals sector has been mixed, with significant year-to-date gains in various sub-sectors, particularly in energy metals and copper [10][5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.19%. The non-ferrous metals index slightly declined by 0.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.86 percentage points [5][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 75.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 56.92 percentage points [5][9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper, aluminum, and lithium prices experiencing fluctuations. For instance, lithium carbonate prices decreased by 2.73% week-on-week [4][10]. - The report notes that the price of copper has decreased by 1.57% to $10,717 per ton, while aluminum prices have shown a slight increase of 1.22% [15][44]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the metals sector, highlighting their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For example, Zijin Mining has a stock price of 30.17 yuan with a PE ratio of 38 [20]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold with a stock price of 35.21 yuan and a PE ratio of 70, and Huayou Cobalt with a stock price of 64.34 yuan and a PE ratio of 36 [20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the supply of copper is tightening due to increased demand from the manufacturing sector, with the operating rates for copper products showing positive trends [29][4]. - In the aluminum sector, the report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints in the future [44][45].