Core Viewpoint - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has shown a slight increase and is experiencing active trading, with significant developments in the US-China trade negotiations impacting market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 12, 2025, the 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) rose by 0.05%, with the latest price at 116 yuan [1]. - Over the past six months, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 2.09% [2]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 4.598 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 18.8% during trading, with a transaction volume of 864 million yuan, indicating active market participation [2]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.425 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Economic Context - Recent US-China trade talks in Geneva have reportedly made "substantial progress" regarding tariff negotiations, which may influence market dynamics [2]. - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, have not met market expectations, leading to a steepening of the bond market curve [2]. - The bond market remains optimistic due to the anticipated decline in funding rates and the upcoming deposit rate cuts, while the progress in US-China trade talks introduces uncertainty [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The 5-year local government bond ETF primarily invests in medium to long-term local government bonds, making it suitable for duration management and tactical allocation, offering relatively high yield potential with low credit risk [2].

Group 1 - The yield curve showed divergence last week, with a notable decline in the short to medium term and a slight increase in the long end [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction, leading to a more relaxed liquidity environment that directly benefits the short to medium term [1] - Following the RRR and interest rate cuts, some institutions began to take profits on long-term bonds, compounded by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and favorable tourism and export data for May Day [1] Group 2 - The central tendency of funding rates is expected to decline, which will continue to support the bond market, with yields likely to experience strong fluctuations at low levels [1] - In the medium term, as the central tendency of funding rates decreases, yields are expected to break through previous lows [1] - The government bond ETF (511520) saw a net inflow of over 1.6 billion in the past 10 days, with a total scale exceeding 46.2 billion, making it the largest bond ETF in the market [1]

固收周度点评 20250511 货币政策的增量信号 2025 年 05 月 11 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com 5/8，债市全线走强，曲线牛陡。早盘降息落地，带动资金利率显著下行， 提振债市做多热情。日内股市走强对债市形成一定压制，涨幅一度收窄，但资金 利率的破位下行对债牛形成较强支撑。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别 变动-3.3、-1.5、-0.9、-1BP 至 1.41%、1.5%、1.63%、1.84%。 5/9，债市未能延续昨日涨势。资金仍延续平稳宽松态势，但或受止盈情绪 影响，叠加午后权益市场走强、关税博弈下 4 月出口增速环比回落但仍显韧性， 债市演绎调整行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 0.4、-0.5、 0.2、0.5BP 至 1.42%、1.5%、1.64%、1.84%。 ➢ "双降"落地，曲线走陡 本周（5/6-5/9）债市震荡走强。5/7"双降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted towards stabilizing growth, reducing the likelihood of significant adjustments in the bond market similar to Q1 2025, while presenting opportunities for capital gains in the bond market [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Q1 2025 monetary policy report shows minimal changes in wording compared to Q4 2024, but clear shifts in the central bank's stance are evident [1] - The main narrative for the bond market moving forward is expected to be "increased external pressure → prioritization of stable growth → reduction in money market and deposit rates → downward shift in bond yield curve" [1] - Two significant changes in monetary policy tools were noted: the suspension of government bond purchases on January 10 and the modification of MLF operations on March 24 to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding [1][2] Group 2: Government Bond Operations - The central bank's suspension of government bond purchases is described as "temporary," with plans to resume based on market supply and demand conditions [2] - This suspension reduces the interest rate risk associated with holding government bonds, suggesting a likelihood of resuming purchases if rates rise significantly for macroprudential reasons [2] Group 3: MLF Operation Reform - The central bank has clarified that MLF will transition from a policy interest rate tool back to a liquidity provision tool [3] - The recent announcement on May 7 regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts and new structural tools indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance [3] Group 4: Insights from the Q1 2025 Monetary Policy Report - The Q1 2025 report introduced six sections instead of the usual four, providing additional insights into policy assessments [4] - Section 4 emphasizes the need for improved management of interest rate risks for investors, indicating significant macroprudential influences on monetary policy execution and bond market operations [4] - Section 5 highlights that China's government debt is supported by assets, suggesting substantial room for fiscal policy expansion, with monetary policy actively complementing fiscal measures [4] - Section 6 addresses the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy, indicating that future monetary policy will likely focus on boosting effective demand, particularly in consumer spending and service sectors [4]

截至2025年5月9日 09:56，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.23%，最新价报113.11元。拉长时间看，截至2025年5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近2周累计上涨 1.10%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手5.05%，成交3.22亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交27.31亿元。 2025年5月7日，国务院新闻办公室在北京举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 开源证券指出，后续随着降准降息落地，以及加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用，社融存款增速、财政支出增速有望延续上升趋势，推动 现金流量表方向进一步向上。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达3191.71万元，最新融资余额达4754.85万元。 截至5月8日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨16.15%，指数债券型基金排名3/378，居于前0.79%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月8日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the Guokai ETF (159650) rose by 0.05%, reaching a historical high of 106.72 yuan, with a trading volume of 8.14 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 26.92% [3] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the Guokai ETF was 10.74 billion yuan [3] - The Guokai ETF has seen a net inflow of 87.63 million yuan over the last seven trading days [4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and the expansion of structural tools, which exceeded market expectations [3] - Following the policy rate cuts, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are expected to decline, stabilizing bank interest margins [3] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Guokai ETF's net asset value increased by 5.53% over the past two years, with a historical monthly gain probability of 87.88% [4] - The fund has experienced a maximum drawdown of 0.43% this year, which is the smallest among comparable funds [5] - The management fee for the Guokai ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a potential strengthening trend in credit bonds as leverage levels may gradually recover due to low funding costs [1][7]. Market Performance - On May 7, the bond market showed weakness, with government bond futures closing down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.62%, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.19% [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7075%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 1.89% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,955 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,353 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates for overnight and 7-day terms decreased by 4.5 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, indicating a continued easing of funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market may see increased volatility in May and June, with a higher probability of interest rates breaking lower [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates a gradual recovery in market leverage, with credit bonds likely to strengthen from the short end [7]. - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of the trend in secondary market repurchase rates, predicting a narrowing of the yield curve as funding rates approach 1.4% [7].

Core Points - The central theme of the news is the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, interest rate reduction, and a decrease in housing provident fund loan rates aimed at stimulating economic growth and easing market liquidity pressures [1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - RRR cut of 0.5% effective from May 15, 2025, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [1] - Interest rate reduction of 0.1% on the 7-day reverse repurchase operations, lowering the rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the loan market quotation rate (LPR) [1] - Reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the housing provident fund loan rate for first-time homebuyers, with the 5-year and above rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [1] Market Reactions - Following the RRR announcement, the 10-year government bond yield initially dropped but then experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility and mixed reactions to the policy changes [1][3] - As of 11:30 AM, short-term interest rates on government bonds rose while long-term rates fell, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.64% [3] Economic and Market Outlook - The bond market is influenced by both policy adjustments and economic data, with potential for increased volatility due to prior market expectations being overly optimistic [8] - Long-term pressures on the bond market are anticipated, with a need for balanced investment strategies between stocks and bonds [8][9] - In the credit bond sector, there is potential value in mid-to-high-grade urban investment bonds and perpetual bonds from commercial banks, but attention to credit risk is essential [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The central bank's implementation of a double - cut (reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut) is in line with expectations and is a specific implementation of the Politburo meeting spirit [1]. - After the double - cut policy is implemented, the bond market yield first falls and then rises, which is a normal market reaction [1]. - Currently, there are no factors that can trigger a significant interest rate callback. The current policies are relatively mild, and there are contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals [2]. - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term, and even if an agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. - In the short term, there may be an impact of profit - taking by trading desks on short - term interest rates, but it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, it is advisable to adopt a duration strategy for active left - side layout. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals show a trend improvement [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold is not a trend reversal and may provide an opportunity [2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents A. Double - cut Analysis - The double - cut announced by the central bank on May 7, 2025, is in line with expectations as the mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting on April 25 increased the probability of such cuts in May - June [1]. - After the double - cut, the yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, which is related to profit - taking after the good news, Sino - US negotiation news, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. B. Interest Rate Callback Risk - The current policies are relatively mild, and after the double - cut, DR007 has further dropped to around 1.6%. The contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals make it difficult to drive a significant interest rate callback [2]. C. Sino - US Negotiations - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term. Even if a phased agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The current leading style is tougher, reflecting the attitude towards tariffs. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. D. Investment Strategies - Although short - term interest rates may be affected by trading desk profit - taking, it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, a duration strategy for active left - side layout can be adopted. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals improve [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold may provide an opportunity [2].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405 billion yuan on May 6, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan for the day, as 1,087 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Overnight and seven-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions decreased by over 7 basis points [3] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.74%, showing little change from the previous day [7] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed slight variations, with one-year government bonds at 1.4625%, two-year at 1.4525%, and ten-year at 1.6260% [9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Services PMI for April recorded 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, marking the lowest level in seven months [13] - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in domestic enterprise production and operational activities [13] Group 4: Trade and Economic Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated expectations for progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations in the coming weeks, suggesting that the 145% tariffs imposed by Trump cannot be maintained long-term [15] - California's governor stated that Trump's tariff policies have significantly harmed the state, emphasizing continued openness to trade with China [15] Group 5: Corporate Bond Market - Apple issued corporate bonds for the first time in 2023 amid increasing pressure from bond investors due to trade concerns [17] - A survey by JPMorgan revealed that 64% of clients held a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [17]