英国债务管理局（DMO）：国内投资者占新发行的英国2028年9月指数挂钩国债需求的89.6%。 跟踪国债市场动态 +订阅 ...

新华财经上海6月10日电（记者杨溢仁）在央行呵护资金面态度愈发明确、关税调整不确定性尚存的大 背景下，债市多头情绪开始逐渐占据上风。 分析人士认为，6月仍可保持看多方向不变，10年期国债收益率的下限或在1.5%附近，各机构可继续关 注久期策略。 多重利好叠加发酵 近期，债市迎来多重利好"加持"。 首先，是来自基本面的支撑依旧未曾缺席。根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年5月，CPI同比下降 0.1%，1月至5月CPI累计同比下降0.1%；5月PPI同比下降3.3%，1月至5月PPI累计同比下降2.6%。 "CPI同比持续处于1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，这为下半年货币政策持续加力 提供了充分的政策空间。"一位机构交易员向记者表示，"此外，5月PPI同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大0.6个 百分点，一方面是由于新涨价动能持续减弱，另一方面也因翘尾因素对PPI同比的拖累有所加深。鉴于 基本面的复苏难言一蹴而就，则当前债市所处环境依旧'友好'，仍可保持'看多'方向。" "利率下行最主要的驱动力为实体回报率的下行，未来几个月物价走弱决定了实体能够接受的融资成本 还将下降。"国盛证券研究所固收首席分析师杨业伟 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20250602 - 20250608), US stocks, the Hang Seng Index, and the FTSE China A50 Index all rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index rose 3.76%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index climbed 2.16%, and the FTSE China A50 Index went up 0.58% [2]. - Most A - share sectors rose, with technology and non - ferrous metals leading the gains. The wind all - A index increased by 1.61%, and 23 out of 30 CITIC industries advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having weekly gains of over 3% [3]. - Interest - rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened in a bullish manner. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.18% compared to May 30, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped 1.65 BP to 1.6547% [4]. - The capital price declined, and the central bank advanced the placement of outright reverse repurchases. The R007 and DR007 decreased by 18.88 BP and 10.07 BP respectively, and the central bank net - injected 3283 billion yuan this week [5]. - The bond market leverage level slightly increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rose from 6.50 trillion yuan on May 30, 2025, to 6.99 trillion yuan on June 6, 2025 [6]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 10 BP to 4.51% as of June 6, 2025 [7]. - The US dollar depreciated, and the gold price rose. The US dollar index fell 0.24%, and the prices of London gold spot, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold spot, and futures all increased [8]. - The US May non - farm payrolls increased less year - on - year but exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased. The probability dropped from 74.3% to 59.3% as of June 7 [9]. - Looking ahead, the domestic broad - money expectation and external uncertainties still exist. The equity and bond markets may benefit from the broad - money expectation, but the equity market may be negatively affected by external tariff uncertainties, while gold is expected to gain [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index increased by 3.76% [2]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 2.16% [2]. - A - shares: The wind all - A index rose 1.61%. Most sectors advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having significant gains [3]. Bond Market - Domestic bonds: Interest - rate bond prices rose, the yield curve steepened bullishly, the capital price declined, the central bank net - injected funds, and the bond market leverage level slightly increased [4][5][6]. - US bonds: US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper [7]. Currency and Commodity Markets - Currency: The US dollar depreciated against most major currencies, including the euro, pound, and the Chinese yuan [8]. - Commodity: Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically [8]. Macroeconomic Data - US non - farm payrolls: In May, the US added 13.9 million non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations but increasing less year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased [9].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to consolidate with slight differentiation in interbank bond prices, with fluctuations generally within 1 basis point [1] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates declining [1][5] Bond Futures - Government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year main contract up 0.07% to 120.160, and the 10-year main contract up 0.01% to 108.995 [2] - The 10-year China Development Bank bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.702%, while the 10-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.654% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.477% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4772%, 1.5210%, and 1.6601% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.52, 3.54, and 2.78 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.362%, the lowest since December 2024 [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that interest rates may continue to fluctuate, with credit bonds benefiting from slightly better supply-demand dynamics [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that GDP growth may be slightly lower in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with stable internal demand [7] - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates that interest rates may reach new lows, potentially starting a new downward trend from mid-June [7]

证券研究报告 | 固收定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 10 日 经济修复分化，债市或窄幅震荡 ——利率周报（2025.6.2-2025.6.8） 投资要点： 证券分析师 本周（6/2-6/8）市场概览： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 宏观要闻：6 月 6 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月（91 天）。截至 5 月末，我国外汇储 备规模实现"五连升"至 3.29 万亿美元，较 4 月末上升 36 亿美元，升幅为 0.11%。 截至 5 月末，央行连续 7 个月增持黄金，储备规模报 7383 万盎司（约 2296.37 吨）， 环比增加 6 万盎司。美国东部时间 6 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将进口 钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至 50%。 中观高频数据：本周消费韧性凸显，生产分化加剧，地产承压。截至 5 月 31 日，乘 用车当周厂家日均零售 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 06 月 10 日 5 月 CPI 环比为-0.2%，前值为 0.1%，再次下滑 0.3 个百分点回落到负区 间。另外，从往年数据来看，5 月环比低于去年同期，较 2014-2023 年环 比均值大体相当。环比拆分来看，能源价格环比下降 1.7%，影响 CPI 环 比下降约 0.13 个百分点，占 CPI 总降幅近七成；应季蔬菜上市量增加，鲜 菜价格下降 5.9%。 5 月 PPI 同比数据为-3.3%，前值为-2.7%，降幅扩大了 0.6 个百分点， PPI 同比在负区间继续下滑。同比拆分来看，5 月生产资料价格下降 4.0%，较前月的-3.1%降幅扩大 0.9 个百分点，其中，淡季下采掘和原材 料价格降幅是主要拖累项；生活资料价格下降-1.4%，主要是食品和耐用 消费品的下滑带动。 5 月 PPI 环比数据为-0.4%，与前月增速相当，也已经连续处于负增长状 态。环比拆分来看，5 月生产资料价格下降 0.6%，今年以来持续处于负区 间且降幅扩大；生活资料价格增速为 0，较 4 月（-0.4%）和 5 月（- 0.2%）有所收敛。 总体而言，5 月 CPI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of 9 credit - bond ETFs in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list is a significant institutional breakthrough in the bond ETF pledge mechanism, which may enhance the market recognition and investment enthusiasm for credit - bond ETFs, improve the liquidity of the credit - bond market, and optimize the bond market ecosystem [3][8]. - The bond market shows a volatile trend. The issuance of credit bonds has warmed up, and the trading activity in the secondary market has increased. Bond yields show a differentiated trend, with credit spreads generally widening and rating spreads generally narrowing [6][7][35]. - The manufacturing PMI in May showed marginal improvement, but there was an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. Industrial enterprise profits continued to recover [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - On May 29, 2025, China Settlement approved 9 credit - bond ETFs to be included in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list. As of June 3, the scale of these 9 products exceeded 80 billion yuan, nearly 2.5 times the scale at the beginning of the year. Their secondary - market trading is active [3][8]. - The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral range can make up for their shortcomings in liquidity management and financing support, transform them from single - function tools to composite products, and is expected to attract more long - term funds and promote the expansion of the credit - bond market [9][10]. - Since the beginning of this year, bond - type ETFs have expanded against the trend. The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral system is a positive factor for the market and may be a key variable for the next - round expansion of credit - bond ETFs [10]. Macroeconomic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, still in the contraction range but with marginal improvement. The production index returned above the boom - bust line, while the new - order index remained below it, indicating an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May dropped to 48.3%, the lowest since October 2022 [12][13]. - From January to April, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. In April, the profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than in March [13]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 656.6 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and one - month pledged - style repurchase rates decreased by 8bp and 6bp respectively, while other term rates increased by 5 - 8bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 5bp [5][16]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds warmed up, with a scale of 286.088 billion yuan, an increase of 44.777 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation of issuance also increased by 772 million yuan [21]. - By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale was 67.074 billion yuan, an increase of 28.569 billion yuan. The industrial bond issuance scale was 157.159 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.541 billion yuan. Most industries in industrial bonds showed net financing outflows [6][21]. - In terms of issuance costs, the average issuance rates of most bonds with different terms and ratings increased by 2 - 8bp, except for the 1 - year bonds of all grades, whose average issuance rates decreased by 12 - 15bp [21][32]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 8.655833 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 49.422 billion yuan to 173.1167 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity [35][36]. - The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 5bp to 1.67%. Credit - bond yields fluctuated, with changes ranging from 1 - 10bp [35]. - Credit spreads generally widened by 1 - 12bp, and rating spreads generally narrowed by 1 - 10bp [35].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is showing positive performance with a recent price of 123.87 yuan and a trading volume indicating strong liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Liquidity - As of June 10, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.05% [1]. - The ETF has a trading turnover of 4.34% with a total transaction value of 786 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 18.109 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Conditions - In the past 20 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 105 million yuan [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including May CPI and PPI, are expected to reflect weak domestic demand and consumer confidence, which may positively influence the bond market [2]. - The central bank's proactive measures, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signal a commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency [3]. - Individual investors can participate with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The ETF benefits from ample liquidity provided by multiple market makers, ensuring immediate transaction execution [3].

Market Performance - The performance of government bond futures showed divergence, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.09%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts remained unchanged [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan for the day. The overnight pledged repo rate fell below 1.4%, indicating a more relaxed funding environment [2] Economic Fundamentals - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year. The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year. Exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [3] Operational Recommendations - The low inflation data and weaker-than-expected export figures suggest a cautious outlook. The market is expected to focus on future tariff negotiations and fundamental changes. The bond market may strengthen due to a more relaxed funding environment, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.60% and 1.75% and the 30-year yield between 1.80% and 1.95% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI and PPI data indicate a continued decline in both indices, suggesting a weak domestic demand environment and potential opportunities in the bond market [1][2][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The core CPI slightly increased by 0.1% to 0.6% [1]. - Major contributors to the CPI decline include food and energy prices, with food prices dropping by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by abundant supply and seasonal factors [1]. - Specific food items saw significant price drops: pork prices fell by 0.7%, vegetable prices by 5.9%, and egg prices by 0.9% [1]. PPI Analysis - The PPI experienced a notable decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3%, widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The month-on-month decrease was 0.4% [2]. - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak downstream demand and adverse weather conditions affecting prices in the non-ferrous and black metal industries [2]. - The top three industries with PPI increases were non-ferrous mining (+0.8%), electricity production (+0.5%), and clothing (+0.2%), while the largest declines were seen in coal mining (-3%), chemical processing (-3.1%), and oil and gas extraction (-5.6%) [2]. Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests a widening gap between upstream and downstream prices, with upstream prices struggling to transmit to lower-tier industries due to inventory and profit margin considerations [2]. - The decline in CPI and PPI is expected to lead to an increase in actual interest rates, which may enhance demand for safe-haven assets like bonds [2]. - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from a shift in monetary policy towards stabilizing prices, with potential fiscal measures to support PPI stabilization, leading to a more favorable outlook for the bond market [3].