中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。 八大坚持构建了覆盖供需两端的政策体系，内需主导与创新驱动聚焦经济增长动能转换，改革攻坚与对 外开放着力破解制度性障碍，"双碳"引领与协调发展优化区域和产业布局，民生保障与风险防控则筑牢 社会稳定底线。特别值得注意的是，政策特别强调"存量政策与增量政策协同"，表明宏观治理正从单点 突破转向系统集成，将显著提升政策传导效率。 会议审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》，核心价值在于将党领导全面依法治国的实践经验 上升为制度化规范，实现科学化、制度化、规范化三重提升，展现了党中央推进国家治理体系和治理能 力现代化的坚定决心与清晰路径，通过明确党领导法治建设的权责边界、运行机制与实践路径，为国家 治理体系和治理能力现代化提供了刚性支撑，彰显了制度固本的深远考量。（作者：华福证券总裁助理 兼研究所所长任志强） （文章来源：新华财经） 从长期维度看，过去五年有效应对多重冲击挑战，经济、科技、国防等硬实力与文化、制度、外交等软 实力同步跃升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，不仅为"十五五"开局奠定了物质基础，更积累了应 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这是中央经济工作会议的前瞻会议， 为明年中国经济发展确定方向。 2025年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经 济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年 奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。 "从会议来看，宏观政策操作仍以宽松为基调，但体现出显著的政策'效能'大于政策'规模'的特征。"远 东资信研究院副院长张林告诉《华夏时报》记者。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟也在解读会议内容时对《华夏时报》记者表示，稳中求进的表述指向 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，经济增速目标设置在5%左右的概率较大。 宏观政策微调 "十四五"时期，我国在复杂严峻的内外环境中迎难而上，为"十五五"时期的发展奠定了坚实的基础。 不过，中国人 ...

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年 经济工作作出一系列重要部署。 围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，并提出做好明年经济工作的"八个 坚持"，将"坚持内需主导"置于首位。 2026年，中国经济如何前行？哪些重点领域值得关注？ 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入解读。 政策基调："提质增效" 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"十五五"规划建议指出，"'十五五'时期我国 发展环境面临深刻复杂变化"，"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时 期"。围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。 明年初财政前置发力形成一定支撑。同时5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部投放，但对贷款的带动作 用仍有限，或亦将在明年开门红中集中开始体现。 华泰证券认为，从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，经济政策基调从"进"和"立"到重"质"和"效"。 从政策基调的措辞看，今年政治局会议要求"稳中求进、提质增效"，而2024年12月政治局会议则强 调"坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破， ...

Daily Spotlight 9 December 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,765 | (1.2) | 28.4 | | HSCEI | 9,084 | (1.2) | 24.6 | | HSCCI | 4,218 | (1.0) | 11.6 | | MSCI HK | 13,724 | (0.4) | 29.9 | | MSCI CHINA | 85 | (0.7) | 30.7 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,370 | 0.9 | 13.7 | | CSI 300 | 4,622 | 0.8 | 17.5 | | TWSE | 28,304 | 1.2 | 22.9 | | SENSEX | 85,712 | 0.5 | 9.7 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,582 | 0.2 | 26.8 | | KOS ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251209 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外市场情绪谨慎，国内政治局会议召开 海外方面，特朗普政策出现"科技局部松动与贸易再趋强硬"的双重信号：政府拟允许 英伟达 H200 以收费模式对华出口，显示高端芯片监管出现边际调整；同时特朗普再度施压 邻国，威胁提升对墨西哥和加拿大的关税，引发外部摩擦升温。热门美联储主席候选人哈塞 特重申，美联储应坚持数据依赖，不提前给出路径承诺。多重政策预期交织下，市场情绪偏 谨慎，美股震荡走弱，美元指数回升至 99，10Y 美债收益率升至 4.16%，铜价续创新高，而 油金承压回落。 国内方面，中央政治局会议部署 2026 年经济工作，强调稳中求进、提质增效，继续实 施积极财政与适度宽松货币政策，加大逆周期与跨周期调节，提升宏观治理效能。会议提出 坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场，并以创新驱动培育壮大新动能，总体而言符合预期，等 待下半周中央经济工作会议更多细节。11 月外贸明显回升，出口同比 5.9%，进口同比 1.9%， 对欧盟、非洲、拉美地区出口走强是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold existing long - positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc Industry - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, and domestic zinc prices may be stronger than LME zinc prices. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4]. Copper Industry - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price center [6]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The market's ability to rebound depends on the actual scale of enterprise production cuts and inventory changes. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after reaching high levels [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. If prices fall to the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. Hold existing long - positions if available [9]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the probability of a decline to converge with spot prices is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the time being [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11][12]. Nickel Industry - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' implementation of production cuts and raw material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 314,000 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; SMM 1 tin premium remains unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Yangtze 1 tin price is 314,500 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; LME 0 - 3 premium remains unchanged at 70 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - Import loss is 15,329.05 yuan/ton, with a 7.76% increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.91 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 350 yuan/ton, up 36.36% from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% month - on - month [1]. - Refined tin exports in October were 1,480 tons, down 15.33% month - on - month; Indonesian refined tin exports in October were 2,600 tons, down 45.83% month - on - month [1]. - SMM refined tin average operating rate in October was 66.81%, up 53.23% month - on - month; SMM solder enterprise operating rate in November was 73.80%, up 0.96% from the previous value [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory is 6,865 tons, up 1.96% from the previous value; social inventory is 8,012 tons, up 2.39% from the previous value [1]. Zinc Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remains unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton; the premium is 70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss is 4,330 yuan/ton, with a 549.10 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.45 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - Refined zinc production in November was 59.52 tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; refined zinc imports in October were 1.88 tons, down 16.94% month - on - month [4]. - Refined zinc exports in October were 0.85 tons, up 243.79% month - on - month; galvanizing operating rate is 58.20%, up 1.66% week - on - week [4]. Inventory Changes - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots is 13.60 tons, down 5.75% week - on - week; LME inventory is 5.8 tons, up 4.29% week - on - week [4]. Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - Electrolytic copper production in November was 110.31 tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; electrolytic copper imports in October were 28.21 tons, down 15.61% month - on - month [6]. Inventory Changes - Domestic social inventory is 16.03 tons, up 0.82% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory is 7.75 tons, down 12.82% week - on - week [6]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,920 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,856 yuan/ton, with a 103 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.64 [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Fundamental Data - Alumina production in November was 743.94 tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic aluminum production in November was 363.66 tons, down 2.82% month - on - month [8]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.50 tons, down 0.17% week - on - week; LME inventory is 52.6 tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous value; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous value [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 8,675 yuan/ton, down 5,696.77% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production is 40.17 tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 23.76 tons, up 0.83% month - on - month [9]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang inventory is 12.38 tons, up 2.82% from the previous value; social inventory is 55.80 tons, up 1.45% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remains unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remains unchanged at 50,000 yuan/kg [10]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spread - The main contract price is 54,545 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from the previous value; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 16.51% from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Polysilicon production is 2.58 tons, up 7.50% week - on - week; polysilicon production in the month is 11.46 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month [10]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory is 29.10 tons, up 3.56% from the previous value; silicon wafer inventory is 21.30 tons, up 9.23% from the previous value [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous value; the scrap - to - new price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,761 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from the previous value [11]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 68.20 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 30.27 tons, up 5.84% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Changes - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 5.53 tons, down 0.54% from the previous value; the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan is 35,326 tons, down 0.48% from the previous value [11]. Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous value; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 4,950 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous value [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [13]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% month - on - month; refined nickel imports are 9,741 tons, down 65.66% month - on - month [13]. Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory is 42,508 tons, up 4.23% week - on - week; social inventory is 26,848 tons, up 2.71% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous value [14]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 115 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) is 178.70 tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) is 42.35 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 49.20 tons, down 2.06% week - on - week; 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 29.82 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,750 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 90,350 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 80 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - Lithium carbonate production in November was 23,500 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month; lithium carbonate demand in November was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% month - on - month [17]. Inventory Changes - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November was 64,560 tons, down 23.36% month - on - month; lithium carbonate downstream inventory in November was 42,030 tons, down 21.13% month - on - month [17].

老王对比了2025年和2024年的文件，也请教了经济学家。大家都认为，2026年政策支持力度不会减！特别是这次强调了要发挥集成 效应，既要让存量政策，也就是已经出台的政策更好地发力见效，也会出台新政策解决新问题。还要让二者形成合力，既应对好短 期波动，也为长远发展打好基础！ 央视网消息：中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。这个重要会议定调了"十五五"开局之年的经济工作，极 为重要。会议有哪些需要关注的重点工作？总台央视记者王雷——财经老王进行了解读。 首先来看对宏观政策的定调：更加积极的财政政策加适度宽松的货币政策，延续了2024年的政策。 2026年，宏观政策将更好地稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济高质量发展，实现"十五五"良好开局！ "纵深推进"的用词，就意味着2026年推进的力度会加大。接下来，地方保护、区域壁垒会进一步打破，要素流动会更加顺畅。 会议还提出，"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"。面对复杂的国际环境，我们既要开放合作，也要守住自身利益，应对不确 定性更有底气！ 老王认为，新的一年，中国经济的潜力将进一步释放，无论是企业还是个人，都会在更多领域迎来新的发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bond market is experiencing a rise, with significant movements in various government bond ETFs and futures contracts, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increased by 0.61%, while the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2603) reached a price of 112.46 yuan, up by 0.37% with a trading volume of 32,085 contracts [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 117.3 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating a steady liquidity environment [1] Group 2 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and plan for economic work in 2026, which is expected to strengthen development confidence and consensus, effectively responding to various challenges [1] - Yang Zhiyong, the president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, stated that macroeconomic policies will continue to be proactive and effective in 2024, aiming to enhance policy efficiency and promote reasonable economic growth [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas inventory increase may limit the price increase of copper [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,970 with a daily increase of 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 92,400 with a decrease of 0.61%. The price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 11,675 with a daily increase of 0.09%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 412,040, an increase of 9,060 from the previous day, and the position was 658,740, an increase of 5,079. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 21,149, a decrease of 9,496, and the position was 342,000, an increase of 449 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 29,956, a decrease of 980. The LME Copper inventory was 164,550, an increase of 2,000, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 38.39%, a decrease of 0.89% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper premium/discount decreased by 27.39 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,500. The spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 40, and the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread increased by 40 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting stated that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency. Trump said that the US inflation problem is basically solved. "Shadow Fed Chairman" Hassett believes that Powell may also think that interest rate cuts are prudent [1] - **Industry News**: In November, Chile's copper export volume was 124,422 tons, and the export volume of copper ore and concentrates was 1,054,487 tons.力拓上调了2025年铜产量预测 due to the accelerated operation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold project in Mongolia. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3]

截至2025年12月9日 09:35，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.51%。流动性方面，30年国债ETF盘中换手 1.41%，成交4.27亿元。拉长时间看，截至12月8日，30年国债ETF近1年日均成交83.46亿元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 据Wind数据显示，规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达303.55亿元。 消息方面，12月8日，政治局会议的召开令市场心态略缓，12月9日，国债期货全线高开，30年期主力合 约开盘涨0.41%。 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度。 多位专家分析认为，12月的经济会议将赋予经济增长更大的权重，在财政政策、促消费、稳地产、"反 内卷"等方面或将做出针对性部署。预计2026年赤字率将保持在4%左右，超长期特别国债、地方政府专 项债规模或有所提升。 在财政政策上，有望更加强化对风险挑战的重视程度，赤字率有望在稳健基础上保持适度弹性。货币政 策则会更加注重"精准滴灌"与 ...