Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the uncertainty of global trade, which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase. M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a - 1.61% change [10]. - The dollar index is 99.17, with a - 0.31% change. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1021, with a - 0.26% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47%, with no change. DR007 is 1.48%, with a - 0.82% change. R007 is 1.51%, with a - 1.24% change. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58%, with a + 0.16% change. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a + 0.16% change [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.41 yuan, and 116.13 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.26% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.002 yuan, 0.018 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and - 0.099 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Looking forward, positive fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - On November 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific summarized information provided other than various spread - related chart descriptions. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. Strategy - For unilateral trading, with the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - For hedging, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The overall industrial production remains stable, with a 4.9% increase in the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size in October, contributing to economic stability and growth [1] - Among 41 major industries, 29 reported growth in value added, accounting for 70.7%, while 50.2% of 623 major products saw an increase in output [1] - From January to October, the cumulative value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 6.1%, maintaining overall stability compared to the previous months [1] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing sector shows strong support, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October, contributing 2.9 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors reported significant growth, with increases of 16.8% and 15.2% respectively [2] - The production of civil steel ships and generator sets grew by 21.4% and 16.9% respectively [2] Group 3 - The digital and intelligent transformation is progressing steadily, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 7.2% and 6.7% respectively in October [2] - The manufacturing of smart vehicle-mounted devices surged by 28.4%, while industrial robots and integrated circuits saw production increases of 17.9% and 17.7% respectively [2] Group 4 - The green development trend is strong, with lithium-ion batteries for vehicles and new energy vehicles increasing in production by 30.4% and 19.3% respectively in October [2] - The production of wind turbine generators and bio-based chemical fibers also saw significant growth, with increases of 23.6% and 16.6% respectively [2] Group 5 - Corporate profits are improving, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in profits for industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September, accelerating by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The profits of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 9.4% and 8.7% respectively, playing a crucial role in the recovery of industrial profits [3] - Overall, industrial production is maintaining steady growth, with ongoing transformation and upgrading efforts, despite challenges from external environments and insufficient market demand [3]

Group 1 - In October, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment grew by 1.7% [2] - By sector, infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real estate development investment fell by 14.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 71,982 million square meters, down 6.8%, while the sales amount was 69,017 billion yuan, a decline of 9.6% [2] - In terms of industries, first industry investment grew by 2.9%, second industry investment increased by 4.8%, and third industry investment decreased by 5.3%. Private investment fell by 4.5%, but excluding real estate development, private investment grew by 0.2% [2] - High-tech industries showed significant growth, with information services, aerospace and equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 32.7%, 19.7%, and 4.1% respectively [2] - In October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.62% month-on-month [2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the overall operation of the national economy in October was stable, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, and new growth drivers continuing to strengthen. However, there are many unstable and uncertain external factors, and significant pressure from domestic structural adjustments, posing challenges to stable economic operation [2] - The next phase will focus on implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing steady progress, expanding domestic demand, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting the effective implementation of macro policies [3]

每经AI快讯，据中国网直播，11月14日，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会上表示， 今年以来，更加积极有为的宏观政策加紧实施，"两重"建设和"两新"政策发力显效，全国统一大市场建 设纵深推进，带动需求扩大和生产增加，促进经济循环，对于稳定经济发挥了重要作用。近期相关部门 推出5000亿元新型政策性金融工具，盘活使用地方债结存限额，用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有效 投资。同时，出台措施进一步激发民间投资活力。随着存量政策和增量政策协同发力，将有助于增强经 济上行动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and maintaining a steady growth trajectory despite facing various external and internal challenges, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and the ongoing development of a unified national market [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The overall economic operation remains stable, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, positioning China among the leading global economies [2]. - From January to October, the industrial added value and service production index increased by 6.1% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating robust growth [2]. - The urban unemployment rate has continued to decline, and consumer prices have shown positive changes, with a year-on-year increase in October [2]. Group 2: Demand Potential - Consumer retail sales grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months, surpassing the total growth for the previous year, driven by active tourism, cultural sports, and online consumption [2]. - China's foreign trade remains resilient, with imports and exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries increasing by 9.1%, 4.9%, and 5.9% respectively [2]. Group 3: New Productive Forces - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with significant growth in smart product manufacturing, such as a 54.7% increase in the production of smart drones and a 25.5% increase in smart vehicle equipment [3]. - The production of green materials is also on the rise, with bio-based chemical fibers and carbon fibers increasing by 18.9% and 12.8% respectively [3]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - Proactive macroeconomic policies are being implemented, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [3]. - Recent measures have been introduced to invigorate private investment, contributing to a positive shift in market supply and demand [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center continuing to shift downward in a weak supply - demand situation and low winter storage [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, running at a high level with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and high - level pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center shifted downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong performance. With the US government reopening, the US dollar fell, and traders were waiting for economic data [1] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable. Overseas, an aluminum plant in Iceland cut production due to electrical equipment failure, and a plant in Mozambique might cut or stop production due to an energy agreement issue, leading to an expected supply tightening [2] - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - The premium of the US spot aluminum price reached a record high due to high import tariffs and global supply tightness [2] - With a positive macro - environment and expected overseas supply tightening, a large amount of funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, driving up the price. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continued. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream was weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was increasing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2%, and the annual target of 5% is achievable, with a similar target expected for 2024 [1] - Fiscal policy will play a leading role in 2024, maintaining a certain level of expansion, with a general public budget deficit projected at 4% of GDP and an increase in social spending [1] - The special bond quota for long-term projects is set at 1.6 trillion yuan, which is 300 billion yuan higher than in 2025, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas [1] Group 2 - The broad fiscal deficit for stabilizing the economy in 2026 is expected to reach approximately 11.8 trillion yuan, equivalent to 7.9% of GDP, an increase of 1 trillion yuan or 0.4% of GDP compared to 2025 [1] - Monetary policy is not expected to see a reduction in reserve requirement ratios or interest rates within the year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 20 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points in 2026 [1] - In terms of boosting consumption, structural measures will be prioritized in 2026, with a potential subsidy scale for old-for-new programs maintained at 300 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Support for "one old and one young" initiatives will be emphasized, with childcare subsidies likely remaining at 100 billion yuan and free preschool education expanding its coverage, resulting in an additional 64 billion yuan in spending [2] - Pilot programs for senior consumption vouchers have started, with potential nationwide expansion in 2026, requiring expenditures in the range of 100 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the signs of stabilization and recovery in major price indicators, with CPI turning from decline to an increase of 0.2% year-on-year in October, and core CPI rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2]. Price Stabilization - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery due to more proactive macro policies and consumption promotion measures [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2]. Inflation Target Perspective - Experts suggest that China's inflation target of around 2% should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, acknowledging the time lag in the effects of macro policies, especially monetary policy [4]. - The shift in macroeconomic regulation should focus more on promoting consumption and improving people's livelihoods rather than relying heavily on investment [4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The low price levels in China are fundamentally a result of the supply-demand relationship, characterized by strong supply and weak demand in the real economy [5]. - Demand-side factors include a slowdown in traditional real estate and infrastructure investments, while new growth drivers like technological innovation and green development are emerging but may not fill the gap in traditional investment demand in the short term [6]. - On the supply side, the long-standing investment-driven development model has led to inefficiencies and over-competition in some sectors, resulting in rapid capacity expansion in emerging industries [7]. Macro Policy Adjustments - Recent macro policy adjustments have shown increasing effectiveness, with significant consumer subsidies and support for personal consumption loans reflecting a shift towards policies that prioritize improving livelihoods and promoting consumption [8]. - In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger role of consumption as an economic growth engine [9]. - The focus of fiscal policy has shifted from primarily investment in projects to improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, aligning with the transition to high-quality development [9].

Group 1 - The core inflation target of around 2% in China should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, as the effects of macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policy, typically have a time lag [1][3] - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, with the CPI rising to 0.2% year-on-year in October, and the core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [1][2] - The current low inflation is attributed to various factors on both supply and demand sides, and a combination of macroeconomic policies is needed to promote reasonable price recovery [1][4] Group 2 - The recent macroeconomic policies have been more proactive, with a focus on promoting consumption and improving living standards, which has led to a solidifying economic recovery [2][5] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, highlighting the growing role of consumption as an economic driver [5] - The shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is evident, moving from a heavy reliance on investment to a greater emphasis on consumption and social welfare, which is expected to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the macro support being strong and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing, but the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing in the short - term [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, resulting in a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Aluminum - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although the mine enterprises in Shanxi and Henan that were shut down due to environmental protection policies and the rainy season previously are now eligible for resumption, they still need government approval. Some compliant mines are expected to resume production on a small scale before the end of the year. With sufficient imported supplies, some mining enterprises have increased the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and the price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Overseas, affected by high import tariffs and global supply shortages, the premium of the US spot market aluminum price has reached a record high [2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with strong macro - support and a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. Later, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [3] - The later focus includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]