Domestic Policy Insights - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, maintaining stability for six consecutive months[2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion CNY, indicating increased liquidity support[2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures[4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.74% to close at 21,980.74 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.96%[8] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 231.26 billion HKD, up by 18.48 billion HKD from the previous week[13] - The PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 9.86 and 1.04, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7% and 2.2%[19] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector saw the highest increase at 8.37%, followed by information technology at 5.98%[11] - Consumer staples and telecommunications sectors declined by 0.29% and 2.73%, respectively[11] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 5.85%, positioned at the 23rd percentile since 2010[25] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as consumer and technology sectors[41] - Industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, and utilities, are recommended for investment[41] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is considered attractive for medium to long-term investments[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies poses a risk to market stability[43] - Potential disruptions from tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiments are highlighted as significant risks[43]

Core Insights - National scale industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The profit growth in March was 2.6%, reversing a decline of 0.3% in January-February, indicating an improvement in corporate profits [1] - The overall industrial profit trend shifted from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a positive growth of 0.8% in the first quarter, ending a continuous decline since the third quarter of the previous year [1] Group 1: Profit by Industry - In the first quarter, the mining industry reported a total profit of 2,204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [3] - The manufacturing sector achieved a profit of 10,826.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw profits of 2,062.8 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 24 experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector emerged as a significant contributor to profit growth, with a 6.4% increase in profits, accounting for 32.0% of total profits among large-scale industrial enterprises [3] - The contribution of the equipment manufacturing sector to overall profit growth was 2.0 percentage points, showing an increase in its impact compared to earlier months [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - The "two new" policies significantly boosted profits, with specialized and general equipment industries seeing profit increases of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively, surpassing the average industrial profit growth [4] - Specific sectors such as electronic and electrical machinery manufacturing experienced rapid profit growth rates of 56.3% and 24.6% [4] - The consumer goods sector benefited from policies promoting the replacement of old products, with industries like wearable smart devices and kitchen appliances seeing profit increases of 78.8% and 21.7% [4] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises was 4.70% in the first quarter, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [5] - As of the end of March, accounts receivable for large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 25.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.9 days, reflecting a rise of 4.0 days year-on-year [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - External uncertainties are high, while internal policies are implemented steadily, which is basically in line with the bond market expectations. After the release of the meeting communiqué, bond yields remained stable. Looking ahead, the main contradiction in the bond market remains unchanged. Domestically, the direction of policy easing is certain, but the implementation pace is to be determined. Internationally, Sino-US relations are likely to ease, but the process is highly uncertain. The bond market is not pessimistic overall, but the upside and downside potential is limited, and yields are likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy as the primary approach and a trading strategy as a supplementary one [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Meeting's Assessment of the Situation - The meeting is satisfied with the economic performance in Q1 but highly concerned about overseas uncertainties. The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation, and external shocks are increasing [2][3] 3.2 Policy Thinking - Strengthen bottom-line thinking and prepare sufficient contingency plans. Due to the long - term, severe, and uncertain impact of current tariffs, the direction of policy hedging is certain, and the policy level is based on bottom - line thinking. However, the specific implementation rhythm needs to dynamically assess internal and external changes. Currently, the focus should be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2][3] 3.3 Specific Policies - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: There are differences in the wording of monetary and fiscal policies. Fiscal policy should be fully utilized and more proactive, while monetary policy still involves timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with structural innovations such as supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][4] - **Risk Resolution**: In the areas of local debt and real estate, the wording is more detailed, but the tone remains "continuously consolidating", indicating affirmation of the existing policy direction and a low probability of a shift to strong stimulus [2][4] - **Domestic Demand Policies**: These policies are given a large space and a prominent position in the report, but they mainly emphasize bottom - line thinking, such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihoods, and supporting enterprises severely affected by tariffs [2][4]

一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增 ——国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—3月份工业企业利润数据 一季度，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，着力打好宏观政策"组合拳"，政策效应 持续释放，带动工业企业利润由降转增，装备制造业、高技术制造业利润支撑作用明显，工业经济发展 质效持续提升。 工业企业利润由降转增。一季度，全国规模以上工业企业利润由上年全年同比下降3.3%转为增长 0.8%，扭转了自上年三季度以来企业累计利润持续下降的态势。3月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1—2 月份下降0.3%转为增长2.6%，企业当月利润有所改善。 工业企业营收增长持续加快。随着工业生产增长加快，带动工业企业营收继续改善。一季度，全国规模 以上工业企业营业收入同比增长3.4%，增速较1—2月份加快0.6个百分点；3月份，规模以上工业企业营 收增长4.2%，较1—2月份加快1.4个百分点。工业企业营收累计增速自上年12月份以来持续加快，为企 业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 近六成行业利润实现增长，制造业改善明显。一季度，在41个工业大类行业中，有24个行业利润同比增 长，增长面近六成；有24个行业利润增速较1—2月 ...

一、央妈大放水！适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。之前是"择机"，今天变成了"适时"，说明急迫性降低了！经过这一波持续"大放 水"，现在的A股根本不缺钱，缺的就一个字——信心，你说是不是？ 今年肯定会有降息降准，具体啥时候不好说。不过，政策上强调要"加紧实施"更加积极有为的宏观政策。"加紧实施"这四个字，说明政策肯定不会少，而且 很快就能看到效果。现在A股不缺钱，不缺政策，就是缺信心。为啥总是没信心，我也是没办法。 二、下周一大盘走势怎么走？ 下周如果平开，5周线快速下行到3287点附近，10周线下行到3329点附近，20周线下行到3308点附近，60周线上行到3153点附近。下周多头估计没啥大动 作，大反弹估计要告一段落了。 下周想突破3309点很难，但60月线上行到3250点附近，对回落的沪指是个强支撑。要是这样，4月份大概率会收一根带长上下影线的缩量中阴线，5月线估计 也保不住。不过，要是近期降息，那又是另一番景象了。 拓维的强势封板，带动算力板块反弹。目前就看下周算力板块是否具有持续性，带动科技板块回暖。下周不排除大盘上攻一下压力位3319，从目前市场的消 息来看，市场依旧选择在3300 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's economy is showing signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and innovative macroeconomic policies to transition from a debt-driven model to an industrial upgrade model [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of completing the transformation of old and new economic drivers quickly to enter a new growth model, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [1] - The report suggests that to drive economic development through industrial upgrades, it is essential to tackle two main challenges: creating consumer space and clearing market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - On the consumption side, the focus is on service consumption, with an emphasis on "creating" consumption to expand domestic demand [2] - In terms of policy, the report calls for improving policy transmission mechanisms, enhancing policy coordination, and expanding policy space [2] - The report proposes to fully stimulate the vitality of the financial system and build a multi-tiered bond market, noting that the current investor types are relatively homogeneous, which limits the support for a diverse bond market [2]

首先，"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，意味着"攘外"和"安内"紧密联系，存量政策要用（兜住 对内底线）、增量政策要等（取决于外交成果）；其次，"办好自己的事"永远不会错，"以高质量发展 的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"；最后，针对外部环境的不利影响，会议既强调底线思 维，也做了诸多部署，为下一阶段的政策方向给出指引。 一、会议部署的核心脉络 按照逻辑脉络展开，二季度将是"外交密集期+存量加速期+经济观察期+增量储备期"。 外交是头等大事，存量政策要用，增量政策要等。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 4月政治局会议通稿的脉络非常清晰，充分展现了高层对当前形势的冷静判断和应对方略。 大规模增量政策的储备和推出需要观察和时间，或要等到年中附近，一些既定和有针对性的增量政策有 望更早出现。 外交密集期。 外交是当前的头等大事，是降低外部风险、化不确定性为确定性的治本之策。 会议强 调"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径"，4月9日召开的首次中央周边工作会议 明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 对美外交，我们已经展现过诚意，外交部发言人近期表示"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开"；对非美国 家外交，我 ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...

中央分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 4月 25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理 念，加快构建新发展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、 稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力 支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸。会议指出，要不断完善稳就业 稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的 基本面。（财联社） 点击上图 ▲立即报名 ｜点评｜ 中国一季度经济延续复苏态势，国际贸易环境却再生变化。本次中央政治局会议对中国经济发展状况做出了全面的分析，并及时为下 一步经济发展路径指明了方向。会议为中美贸易摩擦定调，以稳字当头来应对美国关税政策的不确定性，给国内外企业 ...

2025年4月25日 F3063825 Z0016580 liuyang18036@greendh.com 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 格林大华期货中国宏观经济4月报 刘洋 联系方式： 一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%，市场预期5.2% 2 一季度第二产业同比增长5.9%，第三产业同比增长5.3% 来源:wind,格林大华 1-3月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.2%，市场预期4.0%，增速比1-2月份加快0.1个百分点。分 类来看，1-3月广义基建投资（含电力）同比增长11.5%，市场预期增长7.2%，1-2月增长9.95%。1- 3月制造业投资同比增长9.1%，市场预期增长8.9%，1-2月增长9.0%。1-3月份，全国房地产开发投 资同比下降9.9%，市场预期下降10.2%，1-2月下降9.8%。 4 1-3月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.0% 3 1-3月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.2%，1-2月4.1% 1-3月份，全国新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米，同比下降3.0%，1-2月同比下降5.1%， 2024年全年同比下降12.9%。1-3月份，全国新建商品房销售额20798亿元，同比 ...