最近这段时间，关于石油的话题，成为了新的焦点。为了向俄罗斯总统普京施压，美国总统特朗普改变打法，威胁如果在50天内无法达成俄乌和平协议，将 对俄罗斯征收100%关税，并对部分国家实施所谓"二级制裁"。 由于美俄贸易几乎中断，特朗普主要想打好"二级制裁"这张牌，意图惩罚俄罗斯石油买家，对这些国家的进口商品征收高达100%的关税。而美方也直接进 行了点名，称中国、印度和巴西是俄罗斯石油的主要买家，要求三国停止购买。 美国威胁惩罚购买俄罗斯石油的国家 除了不许购买俄罗斯石油，美方对中国发出了新的威胁，不能再购买伊朗石油。美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时透露，特朗普政府与中国的谈判进展顺 利，但是并不急于与中国达成贸易协议，因为他们更关心的是贸易协定的质量，而不是达成时间。 紧接着，贝森特说出了真实意图，特朗普政府希望将中俄关系和中伊关系加入到谈判中，试图通过谈判阻止中国购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油。贝森特称，中国是 受制裁的伊朗石油和俄罗斯石油的大买家，所以可以开始讨论这个问题。 贝森特放话不许中国购买伊朗石油 美方施压不许购买俄罗斯石油一事，几乎不可能成功，且不说中国，就连非常依赖美国市场的印度，都已经对美国的做法表达了不 ...

美国财长贝森特：与中国的贸易谈判已经进入新阶段。与中国的会谈将于下周一周二在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the case of a Chinese-American executive, Ma Chen Yue, who was restricted from leaving China due to a criminal investigation, contrasting it with the U.S. actions against a Chinese engineer, Xu Zewei, highlighting the double standards in international relations and legal practices [2][4][6]. Group 1: Legal Context and Diplomatic Reactions - The Chinese government legally restricted Ma Chen Yue's departure from the country due to her involvement in a criminal case, emphasizing the need for compliance with Chinese laws during investigations [6][11]. - The U.S. response included demands for her immediate release, with Secretary of State Rubio labeling the situation as "unacceptable," and former President Trump threatening to reinstate tariffs on Chinese goods if she was not released by August 12 [6][19]. - The legal basis for China's actions is supported by its Criminal Procedure Law and Exit and Entry Administration Law, which allow for such restrictions on foreign nationals involved in criminal investigations [11][13]. Group 2: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The case of Ma Chen Yue is seen as a reflection of the broader technological and economic competition between the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors [8][24]. - The timing of the U.S. easing AI chip export restrictions coinciding with the diplomatic tensions suggests a complex interplay between legal actions and trade negotiations [15][18]. - The article highlights the structural contradictions in U.S. technology policy, where the government simultaneously restricts Chinese engineers while easing restrictions on technology exports to other countries [28][30]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The U.S. faces economic pressures, with potential GDP shrinkage and increased consumer costs if tariffs on Chinese goods are reinstated, indicating a need for negotiation [22][19]. - The upcoming trade talks in August are expected to address key issues such as tariff adjustments and high-tech trade restrictions, reflecting the urgency of the U.S. to stabilize its economic relations with China [19][21]. - The article suggests that the Ma Chen Yue incident could serve as a catalyst for redefining global trade rules, shifting the focus from strict export controls to innovation and competitiveness [32].

泰国财政部长Pichai Chunhavajira表示，泰国接近与美国达成协议，以在8月1日限期前降低泰国对美出 口商品面临的36%关税。他预计贸易谈判将在数日内完成。 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices have seen a significant increase after a period of stability, with Chow Sang Sang's gold price rising by 9 CNY per gram to 1021 CNY per gram, marking the highest price among major gold retailers [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold retailers has expanded to 52 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold maintaining the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1] - Other notable price changes include Lao Miao at 1014 CNY (+10), Liufu at 1015 CNY (+7), and Lao Feng Xiang at 1016 CNY (+8) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 6.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands [2] - The current recycling prices are as follows: 771.50 CNY for general gold, 776.90 CNY for Cai Bai, 769.30 CNY for Chow Sang Sang, 775.60 CNY for Chow Tai Fook, and 784.50 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price has continued to rise, breaking the 3400 USD mark, closing at 3396.71 USD per ounce, with a 1.41% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3384.71 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.35% [4] - Market uncertainty due to the approaching August 1 trade negotiation deadline has supported gold prices, while a decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has created a favorable environment for gold investors [4] - The geopolitical situation has slightly eased with the announcement of new Ukraine-Russia negotiations scheduled for July 23, which may influence market sentiment [4]

市场消息：日本央行将在加息前关注贸易谈判的影响。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices slightly retreated to $3,390 per ounce, ending a two-day rally, but overall upward momentum remains supported by safe-haven demand amid unresolved US-EU trade negotiations and challenges to Federal Reserve policy independence [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is still in an upward channel, with a short-term pullback potentially setting the stage for a new rally [3] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating that bulls are still in control [3] - Short-term resistance is at $3,452 (three-month high), and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards historical highs of $3,500 and even the channel's upper limit of $3,630 [3] - Initial support is at the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $3,358, with a breakdown pointing to the channel's lower limit and the 50-day moving average at $3,316 [3] - The gold market is currently at the intersection of increasing macro uncertainty and technical consolidation [3] - Despite a short-term pressure from a rebound in the US dollar, factors such as stalled trade negotiations and escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve continue to provide strong medium-term upward momentum [3] - It is expected that gold prices will oscillate between $3,350 and $3,450, and if safe-haven sentiment persists, a breakthrough above key resistance could lead to a move towards $3,500 [3] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A trading strategy suggests looking for a short position in gold within the range of $3,393 to $3,395, with a stop-loss above $3,405 and a target at $3,375 to $3,373 [5] - Another recommendation indicates a long position at $3,360, with a stop-loss at the morning low of $3,344 and a target of $3,382 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, with investors closely monitoring trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by favorable technical factors and a general weakness in the dollar [1] - The potential for the U.S. and its trade partners to fail to reach an agreement may create uncertainty, prompting market participants to engage in hedging activities [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, highlights that the combination of a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields enhances the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term crude oil market is expected to oscillate. The Iran nuclear negotiation will be held this week, and Iran's stance on not giving up the nuclear program will provide some support for oil prices in the short term. However, as the August 1 deadline for the US tariff exemption approaches, there are still many pressures in trade negotiations, and the EU is in a negotiation deadlock, which may bring pressure on future oil prices. Short - term crude oil will operate in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury Secretary Bentsen said the Trump administration focuses on the quality of the trade agreement rather than the timing. The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US. Iran will hold a nuclear negotiation with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday, and it still hasn't given up the nuclear program. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.96 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.28 per barrel. The basis was 10.33 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 213,000 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.517 million barrels. Overall, it's bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main positions**: As of July 15, the main positions of WTI crude oil were long, but the long positions decreased. The main positions of Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased. Overall, it's neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term crude oil will oscillate between 505 - 515, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 2. Recent News - The market is not overly worried about Trump's tough stance in the letter. Many traders believe he may not impose higher tariffs on August 1. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen downplayed the importance of the August 1 deadline, emphasizing the quality of the trade agreement. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described August 1 as the hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs [5]. - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, causing concerns about crude oil demand. As the August 1 deadline approaches, Trump's trade negotiation stance has become tougher, and the EU is formulating counter - measures [5]. - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia last Friday, including sanctioning India's Nayara Energy Company for processing Russian crude oil and further lowering the price cap of Russian crude oil. The restrictions on Russian diesel will take full effect next January, and the market doesn't worry too much about supply [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The resurgence of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increasing summer demand [6]. - **Bearish factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts will boost the market, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the medium - to - long term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.10%, - 0.15%, - 1.57%, and - 0.38% respectively [7]. - **Spot market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil changed by - 1.05%, - 0.21%, - 0.01%, - 0.38%, and 0.10% respectively [9]. - **Inventory data**: The API inventory increased by 839,000 barrels in the week ending July 11, and the EIA inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels in the same period [3][10][14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position was 162,427, a decrease of 46,947 from the previous period [16]. - **Brent crude oil**: As of July 15, the net long position data was not provided completely, but the long positions increased compared to the previous period [19].