交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市期现货弱势加剧，美国法院"叫停"特朗普关税打压避险情绪。国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.65%。银行间主要利率债收益率 纷纷上行，幅度多在1-2个bp之间。资金宽松，跨月无虞，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微降，七天质押式回购利率则上行超2个bp。 2、资金面：5月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2660亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2660亿元，中标量2660亿元。 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

经济观察网讯5月30日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事 1、中国贸促会将召开5月例行新闻发布会 5月30日上午10时，中国贸促会将召开5月例行新闻发布会。中国贸促会新闻发言人赵萍将发布2025年3 月全球经贸摩擦指数、2025年4月全国贸促系统商事认证数据、《日本营商环境报告2024》和《韩国营 商环境报告2024》、2025年全球贸易投资促进峰会成果、大阪世博会活动预告等。 2、国家卫生健康委就共促儿童健康成长有关情况举行发布会 5月30日下午3时，国家卫生健康委将召开新闻发布会，介绍共促儿童健康成长有关情况，并回答媒体提 问。 3、4.88亿元市值限售股今日解禁 今日看点 5月30日，21家公司共发布23个股票回购相关进展。其中，2家公司首次披露股票回购预案，1家公司回 购方案获股东大会通过，5家公司披露股票回购实施进展，13家公司回购方案已实施完毕。 从首次披露回购预案来看，嘉化能源、海南矿业分别拟回购不超6.0亿元、275.26万元。从股东大会通过 回购预案来看，国泰海通拟回购不超433.69万元。从回购实施进展来看，天山铝业、中国核电、奥海科 技回购金额最高，分别回购7022.12万元、3698.0 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.45 with a -6.33bp change, DR007 at 1.62 with a -3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.77 with a 15.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.76 with a 4.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.64 with a 0.10bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.46, 1.54, and 1.72 respectively, with changes of 0.76bp, 1.12bp, and 0.51bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.51 with a -3.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4480 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and a net investment of 910 billion yuan after 3570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [4] - There will be 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, with 1570 billion, 1545 billion, and 1425 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday [5] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6%); state - owned and some joint - stock banks cut deposit rates [5] Group 2: Stock Indexes and Market Conditions - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 3839, 2685, 5652, and 6008 respectively, with changes of -0.54%, -0.52%, -0.31%, and -0.34% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts closed at 3809, 2669, 5578, and an unspecified value respectively, with changes of -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.3%, and -0.2% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM trading volumes were 75774, 39115, 74989, and 195063 respectively, with changes of -12.6%, -15.2%, -10.3%, and 5.2%; their positions were 240995, 81979, 209867, and 329034 respectively, with changes of 2.3%, 2.0%, 0.4%, and 3.2% [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 9989 billion yuan, a decrease of 110 billion yuan; the pesticide and veterinary medicine sector rose significantly, while consumer sectors led the gains, and precious metals, semiconductors and other sectors led the losses [6] - The market volume shrank again, and the stock indexes oscillated weakly; the US postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9 [7] - Stock indexes may continue to oscillate weakly; the probability of incremental policies and strong capital intervention in the short - term is low, and the market may enter a policy vacuum period [7] - Macro - level core indicators showed a decline in April, indicating that the effectiveness of previous growth - stabilizing policies was not obvious; it is advisable to observe stock indexes cautiously and pay attention to macro - incremental signals [7] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.96%, 12.43%, 0.02%, and 6.10% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.45%, 12.20%, 6.30%, and 3.70% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.95%, 18.47%, 14.81%, and 12.26% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 23.66%, 21.62%, 18.05%, and 15.38% respectively [8]

回顾:央行昨日开展了3820亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量3820亿元,中标量3820亿元。当日1350亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单 日净投放2470亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场将有9460亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至下周五分 别到期3570亿元、1570亿元、1545亿元、1425亿元。5月20日贷款市场报价 利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.0%(上次为3.1%),5年期以上LPR为3.5%(上次为 3.6%)。与此同时,5月20日早间,国有大行和部分股份行陆续更新了存款 挂牌利率,这也是去年10月之后,存款利率时隔7个月再次下调,也是大行 自2022年9月以来第七次主动下调。此次调整后,国有大行活期存款利率跌 破0.1%,定期存款中1年期利率跌破1%。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3860 | -0.57 | IF当月 | 3831 | -0.4 | | 上证50 | 2699 | -0. ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 3,820 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 2,275 billion yuan after 1,545 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreased by 5.90 basis points to 1.5060%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.70 basis points to 1.5790%, ending the previous inversion [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates fell, while 7-day and 14-day rates rose, with R007 and R014 showing inversion [4] Group 2 - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.4 basis points and 6.3 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 16.7 billion yuan and 94.8 billion yuan [4] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 109 certificates issued on May 26, totaling 315.51 billion yuan [10] - The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the 1-year rate for major banks actively priced at 1.70%, leading to a relatively subdued market sentiment [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the market's volatility from tariff impacts and policy support waning, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, in the absence of incremental catalysts, the stock index may enter a short - term shock consolidation phase. It is advisable to cautiously observe the stock index and pay attention to macro incremental signals [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Interest Rate and Central Bank Operations - Interest rate data: DRO01 closed at 1.57 with a 8.84bp increase; DR007 at 1.59 with a 2.00bp increase; GC001 at 1.70 with a 21.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.73 with a 11.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.64 with a 0.20bp increase; LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.45 with a - 0.29bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.53 with a - 1.00bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.72 with a 0.01bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.54 with a - 4.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 5000 billion yuan of MLF operations, and 2400 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. There were 4860 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan in the central bank's open - market operations [4] - This week, 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 1350 billion, 3570 billion, 1570 billion, 1545 billion, and 1425 billion yuan maturing from next Monday to next Friday respectively [5] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (previously 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (previously 3.6%). State - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks lowered their deposit listing rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned large - scale banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1% [5] Stock Index Market - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.18% to 3882.3; the SSE 50 fell 0.18% to 2711.9; the CSI 500 fell 1.1% to 5653; the CSI 1000 fell 1.29% to 5989.7. The average daily trading volume decreased by 836.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of May 22, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 18034.6 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8 billion yuan from the previous week [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, the pharmaceutical biology (1.8%), comprehensive (1.4%), non - ferrous metals (1.3%), automobile (1.2%), and household appliances (1.2%) sectors led the gains, while the computer (-3%), machinery and equipment (-2.5%), communication (-2.3%), electronics (-2.2%), and non - bank finance (-1.7%) sectors led the losses [6] - On May 23, Trump proposed a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1, which may be to pressure the EU and push it to increase trade pressure on China and address US concerns in trade negotiations [6]

Group 1 - The central bank has implemented a significant reverse repurchase operation of nearly 400 billion yuan to offset the upcoming maturity of 946 billion yuan in reverse repos this week [4] - The short-term funding environment shows a slight increase in the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 7-day, and 14-day tenors, indicating a mixed trend in liquidity [4] - The central bank has conducted a 500 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan after accounting for 125 billion yuan in maturing MLFs [4] Group 2 - The chief macro analyst from Dongfang Jincheng noted that since April, external environment volatility has increased, prompting domestic extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments [5] - The recent reduction in reserve requirements and continued large-scale MLF operations indicate that quantitative policy tools are actively supporting liquidity in the banking system, enhancing credit availability for enterprises and households [5] - The combination of the reserve requirement cut and various medium-term liquidity management tools will result in a substantial net injection of liquidity in May, providing crucial support for new credit issuance and social financing [5]

中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放360亿元 当周实现净投放4600亿元 金十数据5月23日讯，中国央行今日开展1425亿元7天期逆回购操作，因今日有1065亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放360 亿元。本周，中国央行共开展9460亿元7天期逆回购操作，因本周共有4860亿元7天期逆回购到期，本周实现净投放4600亿元。 看公开市场资金流向，到"数据库-中国央行数据"查看>> 专业 · 及时 · 精准 · 权威 0 2025 45 119 2025 05 22 05/12 135 485 15 035485146 2025 20 x 2035 06 pt 05/23 MLF 逆回购 票据 逆回购到期 MLF到期 | 日期 | 类别(全部) | 量(亿) | 期限 | 利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 逆回购到期 | 1065 | 7天 | | | 2025-05-23 | 逆回购 | 1425 | 7天 | 1 | | 2025-05-22 | 逆回购到期 | 645 | 7天 | | | 2025-05-22 | 逆回购 | 1545 ...

Group 1 - The domestic money market interest rates continue the trend of "short-term rise and long-term decline" as the demand for funds increases ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, pushing up short-term rates [1] - As of May 20, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (Shibor) were reported at 1.509%, 1.556%, and 1.65%, respectively, showing increases of 10.3, 6.6, and 9.4 basis points compared to May 13 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate effective May 8, and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions effective May 15, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - On May 20, the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the 5-year LPR were both reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 3.5%, respectively, marking the first LPR cut in eight months [1] - The PBOC is expected to inject liquidity through reverse repos to stabilize the impact of the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival and month-end on the money market [2] - The expectation is that the money market interest rates will continue to exhibit the "short-term rise and long-term decline" trend in the following week [2]

Group 1 - The Private Economy Promotion Law will take effect on May 20, 2025, marking the first foundational law specifically for the development of the private economy in China, establishing the legal status of the private economy [1] - The law incorporates the principle of "two unwavering" for the first time, emphasizing the government's commitment to supporting the private sector [1] Group 2 - On May 20, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the "Opinions on Continuing to Promote Urban Renewal Actions," with officials from various ministries providing insights [2] - The Ministry of Transport will also hold a press conference to discuss the establishment of an international standardization organization for port and terminal standards [3] Group 3 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one-year and five-year terms will be announced on May 20, which is crucial for understanding the lending environment [4] Group 4 - On May 20, a total of 11 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, amounting to 156 million shares with a total market value of 2.277 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies like Lianxiang Co., Haige Communication, and Mingtai Aluminum [5] - Four companies will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Lianxiang Co. leading at 61.125 million shares [5] Group 5 - 40 companies have disclosed their stock repurchase progress, with 7 companies announcing new repurchase plans, and 20 companies having their plans approved by shareholders [6] - The highest proposed repurchase amounts come from Zhaoxun Media, Hexing Packaging, and Hengda New Materials, with plans of up to 200 million yuan, 100 million yuan, and 50 million yuan respectively [6]