Core Viewpoint - DBS believes that Chinese companies listed in the U.S. may return to Hong Kong for listing, which would further expand the Hong Kong stock market and maintain strong trading momentum [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The strong momentum in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, with DBS raising the average daily trading volume forecast for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) to HKD 258 billion and HKD 275 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - Positive factors contributing to this outlook include improved liquidity and investment sentiment, attractive valuations of Hong Kong tech stocks compared to other markets, and supportive government policies and stimulus measures [1] Group 2: Market Activity - From July to October this year, the proportion of southbound funds in total trading volume increased to 25%, benefiting from the rise in tech stocks and an active IPO market [1] - Over 80 new stocks have been listed in Hong Kong year-to-date, including A-share companies and well-known tech and consumer stocks, which has optimized the market structure [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed 200 billion HKD, reaching 2164.74 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery since 2021 [1] - The ongoing IPO boom is expected to continue, with many companies waiting to go public in the coming months [1] IPO Market Performance - The recent surge in Hong Kong IPOs has exceeded most industry expectations, with 2025 seeing a total of 2154.6 billion HKD raised in the first ten months, far surpassing initial forecasts of 170 to 200 billion USD for the year [4] - Major IPOs include large companies like CATL, which raised 41 billion HKD, making it the largest IPO globally this year [2] - The average return for newly listed companies in Hong Kong has significantly outperformed the past five years, with a first-day average return of approximately 38% and a three-month return of 60% [3] Record-Breaking Data - The IPO market has seen record-breaking participation, with the recent listing of Mixue Group achieving a subscription amount of 1.77 trillion HKD, setting a new record for IPO subscriptions in Hong Kong [2] - The number of IPOs in 2025 includes eight companies that raised over 10 billion HKD, indicating a robust market environment [2] Foreign Investment Trends - There is a notable influx of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, with passive foreign investments maintaining a net inflow trend, while active foreign investments are expected to increase due to the attractive new stock performance [5] - The demand for diversified investment strategies is rising, particularly as the Federal Reserve has resumed its interest rate cut cycle [5] Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented several reforms to streamline the IPO process, including reducing the approval time for new listings, which has attracted more companies to go public [6] - The anticipated return of Chinese concept stocks is expected to contribute to the IPO market's growth, as these companies seek to leverage the advantages of the Hong Kong market for financing and investor engagement [7] - The positive cycle of supply and demand in the market is expected to sustain the IPO momentum, with many high-growth companies planning to list in Hong Kong [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market has been thriving since 2025, with expectations to maintain its leading position in the global new stock financing market due to attractive listing systems, broad industry coverage, and ample liquidity [1][7]. Summary by Sections IPO Market Performance - In the first ten months of this year, the total IPO fundraising in Hong Kong reached HKD 215.46 billion (approximately USD 27.72 billion), significantly exceeding the initial annual fundraising expectation of USD 17-20 billion [2]. - The improvement in liquidity and the rapid decline in Hong Kong dollar interest rates have lowered borrowing costs, enhancing investor enthusiasm for new listings [2]. Characteristics of the Current IPO Wave - A+H listing model has become mainstream, with over 50% of new companies having overseas operations, accounting for 80% of the fundraising amount [3]. - The "technology + consumption" dual-drive model is evident, with the consumer sector dominating IPOs, particularly in emerging consumption and service-oriented segments [3]. - New IPOs have shown significantly better performance compared to the average of the past five years, with an average return of approximately 38% on the first trading day and 60% after three months [3]. Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The new stock breaking rate has dropped to a new low, with many newly listed companies experiencing minimal price discounts, which may encourage more companies to consider listing [4]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on future growth potential and cornerstone shareholder ratios rather than just company size when considering new listings [4]. Foreign Investment Trends - Global investors have actively participated in the Hong Kong IPO market, with cornerstone investments and institutional placements seeing significant involvement from international institutions [6]. - Passive foreign capital has maintained a net inflow trend, while active foreign capital is expected to increase due to the attractive performance of new stocks [6]. Regulatory and Market Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented several reforms since 2018 to optimize the listing process, significantly improving listing efficiency [7]. - The number of companies preparing for IPOs has increased to nearly 300, surpassing the previous peak of about 200 in August 2021, indicating a robust pipeline for future listings [7]. Return of Chinese Companies - The return of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. to Hong Kong is anticipated to provide new growth in the IPO market, driven by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing long-term asset expansion driven by the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks, alongside sustained net inflows from southbound capital, leading to increased trading volume and high growth in related revenues for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) [1] Group 1: Revenue and Trading Volume Growth - The active spot ADT has driven significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, reflecting increases of 116%/15%/6% respectively [2] - The trading volume for Hong Kong stocks reached new highs, with southbound ADT at HKD 1,259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 229%, and northbound ADT at RMB 2,060 billion, a year-on-year increase of 67% [2] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks remains robust, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Returns and Dividend Expectations - The investment return rate for HKEX has decreased, with net investment income of HKD 3.89 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and project investment/margin investment returns at 4.7%/2.0%, down from 5.7%/2.2% in the first half of 2025 [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, with the current U.S. Treasury yield at 4.10% [3] - The current PE-TTM is 31.2 times, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation improvement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities indicates that the combination of the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks is driving long-term asset expansion in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to sustained net inflows of southbound funds and active trading volumes in the market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to benefit from the anticipated foreign capital inflow due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining a high level of business performance and a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Group 1 - The active spot ADT is driving significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, which are year-on-year increases of 116%/15%/6% [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a high level of activity, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 188.3 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the trading volume increase indirectly boosts custodial, trustee, and agent service fees, as well as market data fees, which have seen year-on-year increases of 25% and 8%, respectively [2]. Group 2 - The investment yield of HKEX has decreased, with a projected dividend yield of 3.0% for 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement. The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 is HKD 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, is 3.0%, while the current yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is 4.10%. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the company is 31.2 times, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation enhancement [3].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed 200 billion HKD, reaching 2164.74 billion HKD, marking a significant recovery since 2021 [1][3] - The ongoing IPO boom is expected to continue, with many companies waiting to go public in the coming months [1][3] IPO Market Performance - The peak years for Hong Kong IPOs were from 2019 to 2021, with annual IPO volumes exceeding 300 billion HKD. In contrast, the market faced a downturn from 2022 to 2024, with 2023 seeing IPO volumes below 50 billion HKD [3] - Since 2025, the IPO market has rebounded, with major listings such as CATL raising 41 billion HKD, the largest IPO globally this year [3][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The average return for newly listed companies in the first trading day is approximately 38%, with a one-month return of 36% and a three-month return of 60%, significantly higher than the average returns of the past five years [4] - The IPO market has seen record-breaking subscription amounts, with Mxue Group's subscription reaching 1.77 trillion HKD, surpassing previous records [3] External Investment Trends - There is a notable influx of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, driven by the demand for diversified investments and the recent easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve [7] - The return of Chinese concept stocks is anticipated to contribute to the IPO volume, as these companies seek to list in Hong Kong due to regulatory advantages and investor familiarity [10] Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented reforms to streamline the IPO process, reducing approval times and enhancing the attractiveness of the market for new listings [9] - With nearly 300 companies preparing for IPOs, the market is expected to maintain its momentum, supported by a favorable regulatory environment and strong demand from both local and foreign investors [9][10]

香港IPO总金额再破2000亿港元大关。 2025年以来，香港IPO市场持续高歌猛进，而在近期港股IPO规模已达到2164.74亿港元。这是自2021年的高峰后，时隔4年香港 IPO再次突破2000亿港元。同时，2025年后续2个月仍有大量公司等待上市，香港IPO正不断逼近2019年至2021年间所创下的3000 亿港元巅峰。 本轮香港IPO热潮超出了绝大多数业内人士的预期。多位接受证券时报记者采访的人士认为，香港IPO的热潮在未来仍将持续。 多项IPO数据创纪录 Wind数据显示，从最近10年香港IPO数据来看，2019年至2021年的3年是香港IPO的巅峰时期，这3年的年度IPO规模均突破3000亿 港元，随后在2022至2024年这3年间陷入低谷，其中2023年的IPO规模甚至不到500亿港元，2024年稍有恢复，但也仅有879亿港 元。 与之对应的是，外资正纷至沓来。在赖烨烨看来，今年以来被动型外资维持净流入港股的趋势不变，但主动型外资尚未形成趋势 性回流。在全球市场波动成为常态的背景下，资金对于分散配置的需求上升，且美联储已重启降息周期，随着新股的赚钱效应凸 显，有望吸引更多的主动型外资投资者参与新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by increased trading volumes and a favorable market environment, including the return of Chinese concept stocks and sustained net inflows from southbound capital [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment net income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The report revises the ADT assumptions for Hong Kong stocks for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3%, respectively. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 179 billion, HKD 192 billion, and HKD 202 billion for the same period, with corresponding EPS of HKD 14, HKD 15, and HKD 16 [5][6] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes a robust primary market for Hong Kong stocks, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024. The number of new stock applications being processed reached 297, over three times the 84 applications at the end of 2024 [7] - The report emphasizes that the high trading volume indirectly boosts income from custody, trustee, and agent services, as well as market data fees, which grew by 25% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7] Valuation and Dividend Outlook - The investment income for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 38.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, with a dynamic PE of 30.2, indicating potential for valuation improvement [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant resurgence since 2025, with the total IPO scale reaching 2,164.74 billion HKD, marking a return to levels not seen since 2021 [1][2] - The current IPO boom is expected to continue, with many companies waiting to go public in the coming months, potentially approaching the peak of 3,000 billion HKD reached between 2019 and 2021 [1][6] IPO Market Performance - The recent years from 2019 to 2021 were the peak for Hong Kong IPOs, with annual scales exceeding 3,000 billion HKD, while 2022 to 2024 saw a significant decline, with 2023's IPO scale dropping below 500 billion HKD [2] - In 2025, the IPO market has rebounded, with notable large IPOs such as CATL raising 41 billion HKD, making it the largest IPO globally this year [2][3] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - New IPO companies in Hong Kong have shown significantly better stock performance compared to the past five years, with an average return of 38% on the first trading day and 60% after three months [3] - The IPO market has been characterized by high demand, with record subscription amounts, such as 1.77 trillion HKD for Mixue Group, surpassing previous records [2][4] Market Activity and Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market has been exceptionally busy, exceeding initial fundraising expectations for the year, with a total of 2,154.6 billion HKD raised in the first ten months [4] - The influx of foreign capital is noted, with passive foreign investments maintaining a net inflow trend, while active foreign investments are expected to increase as new stocks demonstrate profitability [4][6] Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented reforms to streamline the IPO process, reducing approval times and enhancing the attractiveness of the market for new listings [6] - There is an expectation for a continued influx of companies preparing for IPOs, with nearly 300 companies currently in the pipeline, indicating a robust future for the market [6][7] Return of Chinese Concept Stocks - The return of Chinese concept stocks is anticipated to contribute to the IPO market's growth, as these companies seek to leverage the advantages of the Hong Kong market amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions [7] - The positive cycle of supply and demand in the market is expected to support continued interest from both high-growth companies and foreign investors [7]