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Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skepticism of Michael Hartnett, a prominent strategist at Bank of America, regarding the sustainability of the stock market rebound despite ongoing trade negotiations. He emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors and potential risks associated with asset price de-leveraging [1][2][4]. Group 1: Key Trading Strategies - Hartnett suggests three key trading strategies: buying the expectation and selling the fact post-trade agreement, maintaining a short position on the dollar until the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates, and going long on 5-year U.S. Treasuries until the Republican budget confirms future tax cuts/extensions [2][7]. - He believes that the market's upward momentum will likely be driven by three macro factors: the China deal, global rate cuts, and strong consumer demand [3][8]. Group 2: Market Risks - The primary risk for a bear market stems from the de-leveraging effect on asset prices, particularly if the combination of Trump and Powell leads to a loss of control over long-term interest rates. This could result in rising rates and increased pressure on debt chains [4][9]. - Hartnett warns that if investors stop buying long-term Treasuries, it could lead to a significant market correction, especially given that global debt reached a record high of $324 trillion in the first quarter of this year [4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - Hartnett's long-term investment outlook includes a preference for bonds over stocks, international stocks over U.S. stocks, and gold over the dollar, based on the conflict between excessive positioning in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and new populist policies [6]. - He anticipates a structural shift in asset allocation from the traditional 60/40 stock-bond mix to a more diversified approach involving cash, gold, stocks, and bonds [10][17]. Group 4: Economic and Political Context - The article highlights that the 2020s are witnessing a macro shift characterized by the end of excessive monetary and fiscal expansion, a reversal of globalization, and rising populist pressures, which could impact capital and labor dynamics [11]. - Historical parallels are drawn to significant economic events, suggesting that the current environment may lead to similar structural transformations [12]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence Outlook - Despite a generally cold economic environment, Hartnett remains optimistic about artificial intelligence, viewing it as a transformative force that could support earnings through productivity gains [15]. - However, he notes potential risks associated with AI, including the possibility of increased unemployment or pressure for wealth taxes if productivity gains do not translate into job security [16].

Market Performance - On May 9, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.29% and a weekly decline of 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.07% with a weekly decline of 0.47%, and the Nasdaq flat with a weekly decline of 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel up 2%, while Nvidia, Netflix, Google, and Meta experienced slight declines [2] Investment Trends - According to Bank of America analysts, the rebound in the US stock market may have ended, as investors are in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, making further increases unlikely [5] - In the past four weeks, US stock markets saw redemptions totaling $24.8 billion, the largest in two years [5] Notable Stock Movements - Lyft surged over 28%, marking its best single-day performance since February 2024, while Insulet Corp. rose nearly 21%, its best performance since November 2022 [2] - Tesla's stock increased by 4.72%, closing at $298.26, with a market capitalization of $960.68 billion, adding $43.3 billion in value overnight [2] Currency and Commodity Updates - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2399, appreciating by 51 points from the previous trading day [12] - Gold prices rose, with spot gold up 0.60% to $3,325.49 per ounce, and New York gold up 0.77% to $3,331.46 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures settled up over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.11 to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up $1.07 to $63.91 per barrel, both showing weekly gains of over 4% [15] Trade Agreements - On May 8, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the UK, partially retracting tariffs in specific sectors and expanding market access for certain products [17] - The agreement includes a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [17] - Trump indicated that if the trade agreement is combined with tax cuts, it could be a good time to invest in stocks [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rally in U.S. stocks may be nearing its end, as the market transitions into a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, despite a strong reaction to trade easing announcements [1] - Since President Trump announced a pause on certain tariffs on April 9, the S&P 500 index has surged by 14%, indicating a strong market response to trade easing, yet it remains down 3.7% year-to-date, underperforming compared to international peers [1] - The recent moderate stance of the U.S. on global trade may have already been fully priced in by the market, suggesting limited further upside potential [1] Group 2 - Hartnett's views are supported by significant capital outflows, with approximately $24.8 billion withdrawn from the U.S. stock market over the past four weeks, marking the highest redemption level in two years [2] - Hartnett advises investors to favor bonds over stocks by 2025, and prefers international stocks over U.S. stocks, indicating a shift towards more defensive and potentially upward-moving markets [2] - He notes that U.S. stocks are in the late stages of a structural bear market compared to non-U.S. markets, providing clear guidance for investors seeking to protect their assets [2]