投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 政策预期再起，钢矿强势上行 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上行，录得 2.61%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应压力增加，而需求表现不佳，基本面处于季节性弱势，钢价 继续承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾不大，且产能退出政策预期发酵，乐 观情绪支撑下预计钢价震荡偏强运行，关注政策情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价有所走强，录得 2.24%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，供给政策预期再现，市场情绪偏暖，热卷价格持续上行，而热卷基 本面并未好转，供应高位趋稳，而需求趋弱，上行驱动存疑，重点关注 政策情况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 ...

本周 硅料市场呈现回暖迹象，虽绝大多数企业并无大量新增订单成交，但一方面 部分前期暂缓执行的订单，本周经协商以高于预期的价格重新成交，另一方面本周也 有 个别企业少量订单涨价成交，故本周多晶硅市场均价呈现小幅回升的趋势。本周多 晶硅价格小幅上涨，主要原因有三点：第一，近期硅料月产量基本维持在 10 万吨左右 相对稳定的状态，与需求基本匹配，无新增库存压力。第二，国家相关部门 多措并 举，包括推动供给侧结构调整打造 "产业命运共同体"，以及严控"低于成本价销 售 "内 卷式竞争，供应和价格两手抓，市场预期向好。第三， 多晶硅均价 于 2024 年 5 月中 旬降至 3.8 万元 / 吨，持续低于 行业平均成本 运行已超一年之久，本年度上半年陆续 停产的企业 达到 4 家， 2024 年以来停产企业数量累计达 9 家，长期亏损的重压之下 ，本周， 市场积极信号叠加供需趋缓， 推动多晶硅价格试探性理性上涨。 截止本周，国内 在产 多晶硅企业数量减少至 9 家 ，本月新增停产检修企业 2 家， 且暂无明确的复产计划。硅业分会统计， 6 月份 国内多晶硅产量约 10.2 万吨 ，环比基 本持平，且与需求基本匹配，无新增 ...

作者：张奥平 经济学家、新质未来研究院院长 十大重点： 1.中央财经委员会发挥制定经济工作重大方针作用。会议既研究事关根本和长远的重大问题，也直面当 下、回应关切。经常在前进的关键节点上，提出重要主张，作出及时部署； 2.此次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题； 3.对于市场主体而言，推进全国统一大市场建设重点为破除"内卷式"竞争及推动内外贸一体化； 4."依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"为推进全国统一 大市场建设六大工作方针之首，凸显其重要性； 5.此次推动落后低效产能退出涉及行业范围将更加广泛，既有传统行业，也有新兴行业，如锂电、光 伏、新能源汽车等； 6.推动落后低效产能退出的工作抓手为优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组，推动落后低效产 能退出，市场主体需重点关注强化标准引领，两新工作（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）所制修订 的294项国家标准是重中之重； 7.破除"内卷式"恶性竞争除规范企业行为外，也需规范政府行为，重点为规范政府采购和招标投标及规 范地方招商引资； 8.对外贸型企业而言，出口转内销并非短期一时一刻的"避风港" ...

中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/02 China Futures Daily Note Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy tr ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

硅料价格从2023年开始一直下跌，目前价格约4万元/吨，已跌破绝大部分企业的成本线，头部企业均处 于亏损状态。从2024年开始，行业已经历了多轮自律行动，包括减产和限制最低价格等措施。 兰天石表示，目前很多企业负债率较高，且硅料价格在短期内仍看不到回升可能，企业再进行持续经 营，压力很大，但业内苦于没有合理的产能退出方案。 之前也有硅料企业在接受投资者调研时表示，针对光伏产业目前存在的问题与挑战，主管部门、行业协 会、产业企业相继提出了多种探索方案，体现出相关方对行业健康发展的强烈意愿。 6月11日下午，协鑫科技（3800.HK）联席CEO兰天石在第十八届（2025）国际太阳能光伏和智慧能源& 储能及电池技术与装备（上海）大会暨展览会上接受媒体采访时表示，针对目前硅料行业"内卷"难以缓 解的情况，行业内已经有了初步的解决方案，但仍需要业内企业合力推动。 据兰天石介绍，该方案拟由行业龙头企业牵头，通过"直接出资+债务"的模式，成立一家由专业管理人 员运营的公司。该公司将出面负责收购产能，进而推动行业产能的有序退出。 兰天石表示，此举相当于将经营压力转嫁给愿意推动产能有序退出的行业龙头企业。目前，龙头企业已 经达 ...