智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)和力拓集团(Rio Tinto Group)的智利锂矿合资项目正按计划推进。力拓集团 首席执行官兼锂业负责人与智利国家铜业公司董事长会面，讨论了Maricunga锂项目和智利铜矿勘探项 目。 智通财经APP获悉，智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)董事长表示，尽管总部位于伦敦的矿业公司力拓集团 (Rio Tinto Group)发出将放缓其进军电池金属步伐的信号，但是Codelco与力拓集团在智利的锂合资企业 仍按计划常态推进。 力拓一边在塞尔维亚项目上踩刹车且强调对锂资源采取"分阶段策略"，一边继续和Codelco推进位于智 利的Maricunga大型锂矿项目，并讨论具体的提锂工艺，这些大型矿企大矿并不是"不玩锂矿"的悲观态 度，而是不再为任何一块锂资源无脑开支。力拓最新的这种以"期权"的方式布局锂矿 ——等到下一轮 锂需求与价格共振时，可以迅速放量。而就当前全球储能需求大规模兴起之势来看，下一个锂周期可能 不久后将到来。 Codelco 与力拓在智利锂项目上的携手推进，不会立刻扭转锂价走势，但却清晰传递出一个信号：在储 能与电动汽车长期强劲需求拉动下，全球矿业巨头并未退出锂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of lithium carbonate is that it presents a pattern of increasing supply, high demand, and inventory depletion. The market is hot, and the supply - demand tension is marginally alleviated but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in December [2]. - The risk points are the resumption of mica ore production and the slowdown of demand growth [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Market Review (1) November Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In November 2025, the futures price of lithium carbonate showed a significant upward trend. Affected by factors such as increased energy - storage demand, the price was supported at 80,000 yuan and strengthened. After the speech of the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, the futures price rose by the daily limit on November 17th. However, due to exchange policy regulation and Goldman Sachs' bearish report, the price dropped sharply on November 21st. Then, after the speech of the chairman of Tianqi Lithium, the LC2605 price rose by 5% [6][7][8]. - The monthly cumulative trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 26.99 million lots, and the open interest was 1.07 million lots, setting a record high since listing. The monthly increase of the main contract LC2605 in November reached 19.42% [9]. (2) November Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In November, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 93,700 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,300 yuan/ton, with a 17% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 8 - 9%, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened, indicating strong demand for lithium carbonate [12]. - The basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton and then fell back to - 2,500 yuan/ton at the end of November. The spot price closely followed the futures price, and the price difference reached a new high since February last year [18]. (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In November, the prices of the upstream and downstream of lithium carbonate generally increased. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene increased by 24% to 1,217 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, driving the electrolyte price up by 36%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was nearly 10%, and that of ternary materials was 3 - 5% [20]. II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In November, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate increased from 985 US dollars/ton to 1,217.5 US dollars/ton, with a 23.6% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrates from Brazil and Africa also rose significantly. The price of lithium mica concentrate increased to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a 19.3% monthly increase [21]. - The production profit of purchasing spodumene fell back to near the break - even point, and the loss of purchasing mica decreased as the lithium price rose [25]. (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In November, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the supply of lithium ore gradually increased. Although the available inventory in warehouses was low, the inventory of port traders continued to rise. The inventory of lithium salt plants recovered compared with before. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to production suspension in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly came from salt lakes and spodumene [28]. - The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine in Jiangxi was still shut down, and it was expected to resume production at the end of December or early next year at the earliest [33]. III. Supply Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In November, the production of lithium carbonate was about 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 25,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene, with an output of nearly 58,000 tons [34][38]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 56%. The capacity utilization rates of spodumene and salt - lake sources were higher than the average, while that of lithium mica was low [43]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In October, the import of lithium carbonate was 23,900 tons, and the export was 246 tons, with a net import of 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 4,200 tons. Chile and Argentina were the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import. The average import price in October was 8,931 US dollars/ton, a 300 - US - dollar increase from the previous month [46][51]. (3) Production and Apparent Demand of Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the production of lithium hydroxide was nearly 30,000 tons, almost the same as last year and a month - on - month increase of 650 tons. In October, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,597 tons. Assuming the same net - export situation in November, the apparent demand was 28,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [52]. IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Sales of New - Energy Vehicles - In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales were 12.91 million, a 33% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.93 million, an 86% year - on - year increase, accounting for 15% of the total sales. Pure - electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales reached 51.6%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [54][59]. (2) Production of Lithium Batteries and Cells - In November, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was nearly 200 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 77% with a production of 154 GWh. The production of power cells in November was 128 GWh, a 35% increase from the end of last year, and that of energy - storage cells was 58 GWh, a 53% increase. The inventory - to - sales ratio of cells continued to decline [60][63]. (3) Production of Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Since the middle of this year, the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has "exploded". In November, the production was 413,000 tons, a 44% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the production of ternary materials was 738,000 tons, a 17% increase from the same period last year. The operating rates of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials continued to rise [67][68]. - In November, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 58%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 36%. In October, the production of electrolyte was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, and the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [72]. V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of November, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the peak in late July. The inventory days decreased from the maximum of 45 days to 26 days. The refinery inventory decreased to 24,000 tons, and the inventory days were 5.5 days, a new low in more than a year [73]. - From July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will rise until June. Due to strong demand, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking speed will slow down. The exchange inventory has been lower than the same - period level this year, especially from October to November when it decreased significantly [76][80]. VI. Summary and Future Forecast of Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate and related industries showed a significant upward trend. In December, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, but it will be marginally alleviated. There is still a supply - demand gap [83][84]. - In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate in November was about 95,300 tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase. It is expected that after mid - December, the production in Jiangxi's core mining areas will gradually resume, with a 3% increase in December. The import volume in December is expected to reach about 26,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide is expected to remain at about 30,000 tons. The total production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will reach a new high in December, with a total supply of 150,000 tons in terms of LCE [84]. - In terms of demand, the demand is mainly from the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. In December, the demand is expected to decline slightly, but the new capacity of Hubei Bangpu Yichang Base will support the overall supply [85]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory is lower than the historical average. In December, lithium carbonate may continue to be destocked, but at a slower pace. Overall, lithium carbonate will maintain a fluctuating and strong trend in the future [87].

Core Insights - The recent surge in prices of various chemical and industrial products, particularly lithium battery electrolyte materials, has raised significant market interest and questions regarding the drivers of this price increase, its sustainability, and the potential for performance recovery among upstream and downstream companies in the industry [1] Price Trends in Electrolyte Industry - Prices for key lithium battery electrolyte components have risen sharply, with carbonates and lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing significant increases. For instance, carbonates like VC rose by 3000 CNY/ton to an average of 168,000 CNY/ton, while lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 163,000 CNY/ton after a 2500 CNY/ton increase [2] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.03%, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising by 750 CNY/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has more than doubled since July 18, when it was 49,800 CNY/ton [2] Market Demand and Growth - The demand for lithium battery materials is being driven by robust growth in both the power battery and energy storage sectors, with companies like Huasheng Lithium Battery noting a significant increase in demand for related materials [3] - Analysts predict that the energy storage market will see explosive growth, with domestic energy storage orders expected to exceed 250 GWh by mid-2025, marking an 86% year-on-year increase [3] Company Outlook and Production Plans - Companies such as New Zobang and Tianqi Materials are optimistic about future price trends, with New Zobang expecting prices to remain within a range that supports reasonable profit margins and ongoing R&D investments [4] - Tianqi Materials indicated that the price increase for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to continue into November and December, with production levels maintained at 3,800 tons per month [5] - Several companies are ramping up production capacity, with Shenzhen New Star planning to complete a 7,200-ton capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate by mid-2024, while Jinshi Resources is investing in a project to produce 15,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate [5][6] Capacity Expansion Plans - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical plans to increase its VC product capacity to 10,000 tons per year by Q2 2026, with potential further expansions based on market demand [6] - New Zobang's subsidiary, Hankan Electronic Materials, currently has a VC capacity of 10,000 tons and is building an additional 5,000 tons, expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs acknowledges a significant shift in the lithium market due to the explosive growth in energy storage system (ESS) demand, leading to a tighter short-term supply-demand balance, while the medium-term oversupply scenario remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate in China surged from $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its 2026 price forecast and delay the anticipated price correction to the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - The demand model for ESS has been significantly adjusted, with forecasts for ESS consumption in 2025 and 2026 raised to 589 GWh and 736 GWh, respectively, nearly doubling previous estimates [2]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish medium-term view, predicting a return to oversupply by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 18% unless producers cut back on capacity expansion plans [1][3]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will decline from $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 to $9,500 per ton in the second half, driven by increased supply from lithium spodumene and the resumption of lithium mica production [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an average price of $10,250 per ton for 2026, which remains below CME futures prices, indicating a potential over-optimism in the current market [3]. - For 2027-2028, prices are expected to remain below the estimated incentive price range of $10,200 to $11,000 per ton, necessitating supply cuts to prevent excessive inventory accumulation [3].

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Sector Industry Overview - The lithium sector is currently experiencing volatility due to changes in demand expectations, with a projected demand growth of 30% as stated by Jiang Feng, the chairman of a leading company in the sector [1][2] - Supply-side increments are expected to reach 250,000 tons by 2026, which is influencing market expectations for lithium prices to rise to 150,000 yuan [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The lithium price has recently surged past 100,000 yuan, driven by short-term supply constraints due to increased production costs from CATL's (宁德时代) requirement to pay 177 million yuan for mining rights [1][2] - **Market Sentiment**: Despite the price increase, the spot market has not seen a corresponding rise in transaction volumes, particularly when prices exceed 90,000 yuan, as downstream companies are maintaining low inventory levels [3] - **Inventory Trends**: Recent data indicates a slowdown in inventory depletion, with weekly reductions dropping from 3,400 tons to just over 2,000 tons, as some companies are utilizing finished lithium iron phosphate inventory to reduce demand for lithium carbonate [3] Future Price Outlook - **Short-term Expectations**: Prices are expected to remain strong with fluctuations, particularly as CATL is anticipated to resume production around mid-December, adding approximately 5,000 tons monthly, which may not significantly impact the overall supply-demand balance [4] - **Long-term Projections**: The equilibrium price for lithium is expected to be above 100,000 yuan next year, as high-cost production needs this price level to remain viable [4] Impact of Energy Storage Demand - **Driving Factor**: Energy storage demand is identified as the primary driver for the recent rise in lithium stocks, with expectations that companies will operate at near full capacity in the first half of next year [5][6] - **Policy Influence**: The potential introduction of national energy storage policies could further stimulate demand, leading to unexpected growth if the policies are favorable [5][6] Market Reactions to CATL's Production Resumption - **Market Volatility**: The announcement of CATL's production resumption has caused fluctuations in market sentiment, but it is considered a non-issue for long-term supply-demand balance as it has already been factored into forecasts [7] - **Future Shortages**: There is an anticipated shortfall in the next 2-3 years due to favorable energy storage demand, potentially occurring as early as next year or in 2027 [7] Investment Recommendations - **Key Companies to Watch**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tianhua New Energy, which show significant growth potential and cost advantages [8] - **Traditional Leaders**: Companies like Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium are also worth monitoring, but investors should wait for clear signals of improving demand to enhance their valuation prospects [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant volatility, with the main contract dropping from over 100,000 yuan/ton to just above 90,000 yuan/ton, while the spot market remains relatively stable but shows signs of price decline [2][5] Price Trends - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have risen approximately 50%, from around 60,000 yuan/ton to just over 90,000 yuan/ton, with a peak of 99,300 yuan/ton on November 20 [3][4] - On November 21, the main futures contract fell by 9% to 91,000 yuan/ton, indicating a divergence between futures and spot prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is expected to shift, with a slight surplus projected for 2026, but potential monthly mismatches due to non-linear growth in energy storage installations [2][6] - Forecasts indicate that China's lithium carbonate demand will increase from 53.4 million tons in 2023 to 121.2 million tons in 2025, while supply is expected to reach 119.8 million tons [5][6] Market Sentiment and Divergence - There are contrasting views within the industry regarding future demand growth, with some executives expressing skepticism about a 50% increase across the board, citing potential demand destruction from rising battery prices [4][5] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with major lithium producers maintaining normal production levels and showing reluctance to increase supply significantly until prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton for an extended period [6][8] Storage Demand Influence - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, with projections indicating a significant increase in storage battery production and market growth [6][7] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with anticipated shipments reaching 780 GWh in 2026, a 50% increase from previous years [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the new energy sector is experiencing significant pullbacks due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule on market sentiment, alongside a rapid prior increase in prices of lithium carbonate, iron lithium cathodes, and electrolytes [1] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium carbonate market has shown emotional characteristics, with prices recently surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by a shortage in ore supply; however, the actual supply-demand tightness does not justify the current price levels, indicating an influence of market sentiment [2] - The focus in the materials sector is on the long-term contract prices between material manufacturers and leading battery manufacturers; while historically, leading battery manufacturers have delayed negotiations, this year may differ due to full order books from downstream customers, potentially limiting the duration of such delays [2] - Overall, there are no significant changes in fundamentals, with a positive outlook for energy storage demand; Q1 2026 is expected to remain strong despite being a traditionally weak season, but ongoing attention is needed on market sentiment and battery manufacturers' production plans, suggesting a continuation of a volatile market in the short term [2] - Interested investors may consider low-entry opportunities in the sector through various ETFs, including the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864), Growth Enterprise Board New Energy ETF (159387), and Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expected increase in energy storage demand will drive the prosperity of phosphate rock [1] - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to exceed 260 GWh in the first half of 2025, with an annual forecast of over 500 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [1] - 95% of the energy storage batteries are lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are expected to drive a demand of about 1.2 million tons of lithium iron phosphate and subsequently 4.4 million tons of phosphate ore demand by 2025, accounting for over 4% of China's current phosphate rock total output [1] Group 2 - The bargaining power of phosphate rock supply is expected to strengthen, with orderly capacity release both domestically and internationally, making it difficult to reverse the tight balance in the phosphate rock market, indicating potential upward adjustments in the prosperity curve [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing a sustained recovery, with notable performance in sub-sectors such as organic silicon, caprolactam, polyester, and PTA [1] - The MDI industry has a favorable structure with leading companies enjoying significant cost advantages; the PVC industry is expected to see almost no new capacity in the next two years, and the impact from the real estate sector in China and the U.S. is likely to improve, while high growth trends in demand from emerging countries will continue [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specific chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies from the fertilizer, pesticide, and coating sub-industries in the chemical sector, reflecting the diversity and technological characteristics of the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in stock prices of Tianhua New Energy is driven by the booming demand for energy storage and the rebound in lithium carbonate prices, despite a significant decline in the company's revenue and net profit projections for 2023 and 2024 [1][6]. Company Performance - Tianhua New Energy's stock price reached 57.44 CNY per share as of November 19, with an increase of over 88% in November and over 155% year-to-date, positioning it among the top performers in the sector [1][2]. - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to decline significantly, with revenues expected to drop from 170.30 billion CNY in 2022 to 66.08 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.54% and 36.87% respectively [6]. - The net profit is also forecasted to decline sharply, from 65.86 billion CNY in 2022 to 8.48 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 74.81% and 48.91% [6]. Market Context - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a collective rise in stock prices, with other companies like Zhongyi Technology and Rongbai Technology also seeing significant gains, attributed to the increasing demand for energy storage solutions [1][5]. - The market is currently viewed as being in a phase of price correction rather than a complete cycle reversal, as the industry is still adjusting from previous rapid capacity expansions [5]. Strategic Moves - Tianhua New Energy plans to acquire 75% of Suzhou Tianhua Times for 12.54 billion CNY, aiming to enhance its investment and development in overseas lithium resources and mitigate potential competition risks [6][7]. - The acquisition is expected to support the company's long-term development strategy without significantly impacting its financial performance in the near term [7].

Core Insights - The rapid growth in the energy storage industry and the recovery in lithium battery demand have led to a significant increase in the prices of key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC additives, described as a "fire in winter" for the market [2][3]. Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged dramatically, with mainstream quotes exceeding 120,000 yuan per ton in mid-November, doubling from the low of 50,000 yuan in July and also doubling from mid-October [3]. - The price increase is driven by explosive growth in demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, alongside a contraction in supply due to the exit of many small enterprises under financial pressure [3]. - Domestic energy storage battery shipments reached 430 GWh in the first three quarters, surpassing last year's total, with some companies facing order backlogs extending to 2026 [3]. VC Additive - The price of VC additives has seen a staggering increase, with quotes reaching 100,000 to 120,000 yuan, marking a daily jump of over 50% [5]. - The surge in VC prices is attributed to the explosive demand from the energy storage market, rigid supply constraints, and smooth cost transmission [5]. - The global supply of VC is expected to face a significant shortfall, with projections indicating a gap of 12,000 to 15,000 tons by 2025 and potentially reaching 20,000 tons by 2026 [6]. Chlorosulfonic Acid - Chlorosulfonic acid prices have also risen sharply, with a cumulative increase of 23.5% in November and over 35% since early August [7]. - It is a key raw material for lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (LiFSI), which is gaining traction due to its superior technical specifications compared to traditional lithium hexafluorophosphate [7]. - The transition from lithium hexafluorophosphate to LiFSI indicates a shift towards high-nickel battery applications, with demand for LiFSI expected to grow at an annual rate of over 30% [8]. Industry Dynamics - Major players in the electrolyte market, such as Tianqi Materials, are benefiting from integrated layouts, maintaining high capacity utilization rates and securing long-term supply contracts with downstream battery manufacturers [4]. - The market outlook for lithium hexafluorophosphate remains optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases due to tight supply-demand dynamics [4].