Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba anticipates that the Japan-U.S. trade agreement will contribute positively to the global economy [1] Group 1 - The trade agreement is expected to enhance economic cooperation between Japan and the United States [1] - The agreement aims to address trade imbalances and promote fair trade practices [1] - Ishiba emphasizes the importance of multilateral trade agreements in fostering global economic stability [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

Group 1 - The 16th Summer Davos Forum was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26, focusing on the theme of "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era" and discussing five main topics including global economy, China's outlook, and new energy [1][2] - 60% of this year's global GDP growth is attributed to contributions from Asian economies, highlighting China's significant impact on the global economy [1] - The forum emphasized the importance of "China and the World" as a focal topic, with discussions on how China's high-quality development can drive global economic recovery and growth [1] Group 2 - Attendees expressed high interest in China's advancements in cutting-edge technologies such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, indicating a desire for deeper collaboration in innovation [2] - A German investment company's representative expressed confidence in increasing investments in China, particularly in new product and technology development, with a specific investment of $500 million in the Greater Bay Area for a manufacturing base [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

Group 1: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is facing significant challenges, including rising protectionism, unilateralism, and trade barriers, leading to a serious backlash against globalization [2][3] - The World Bank has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing a reduction in growth rates [2] - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported an 11% decline in global foreign direct investment for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [2] Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - Amid global economic uncertainties, China is providing more opportunities through its development and high-level openness, becoming a stabilizing force in the international landscape [4] - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, surpassing many forecasts, with key economic indicators like industrial output and retail sales showing steady growth [4] - China's total import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, solidifying its position as the world's largest trading nation [4] Group 3: International Cooperation and Future Outlook - The World Economic Forum emphasizes the urgency of effective global cooperation in light of deepening geopolitical and economic divides [7] - The forum's agenda includes critical topics such as global economic interpretation, China's outlook, industry changes, and sustainable energy, addressing pressing global concerns [7] - Historical trends show that economic globalization has led to significant advancements, and the future requires countries to embrace openness and cooperation for mutual benefit [8]

Group 1 - The initial response from Iran appears to be limited, but the conflict serves as a reminder of potential impacts on the global economy beyond oil [1] - The missile launches have led to the closure of airspace in Qatar and the UAE, disrupting commercial flights to Doha and Dubai [1] - These measures are temporary, but if similar incidents occur in the summer, it could cause significant damage to the aviation industry, which is already facing challenges from tariffs and thin profit margins [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the BRICS countries account for 40% of the global economy, and this share is expected to grow [1] Group 2 - The statement emphasizes the increasing economic influence of BRICS nations on a global scale [1] - The growth potential of BRICS is highlighted, suggesting a shift in economic power dynamics [1] - The assertion indicates a strategic importance for investors to consider the BRICS bloc in their investment decisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may significantly exceed expectations. The global economy is still on an upward trajectory, but if crude oil prices skyrocket, there will be a time lag in the transmission of global inflation caused by the increase in oil prices [15]. - With the shift of Israel's goal from destroying Iranian nuclear facilities to overthrowing the Iranian regime and the high probability of US military involvement, the Middle East is likely to face greater - scale turmoil and chaos, and the upward potential of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [47]. - The sharp rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive a collective increase in energy and chemical products. The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and reallocating to European and Chinese assets, which is beneficial to A - shares [47][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - **US Economy** - In April, US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, indicating strong consumer spending [16]. - In May, the US core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [18]. - The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52%, showing continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. In the same month, manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [20][22]. - In April, the number of job openings in the US was 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one - year high, indicating a tightening labor market [25]. - In May, the hourly wage of non - agricultural enterprises in the US was $36.24, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.9% [28]. - In April, US consumer goods imports returned to normal, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import amount of capital goods was $90.5 billion, second only to that in March, indicating an accelerated return of the manufacturing industry [31][33]. - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached $98.8 billion, a new high for the year, showing the strength of the service industry [36]. - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [39]. - **European Economy** - On June 5th, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the eighth time in a year, to 2% [41]. - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost the manufacturing industries in Germany and the Eurozone [43]. - **Indian Economy** - In May, India's manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for more than three years [45]. Asset Allocation - **Crude Oil and Chemicals** - The shift of the Israeli - Iranian conflict and the potential US military intervention may lead to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which will drive up the prices of energy and chemical products [47]. - Iran's liquefied petroleum gas accounts for 28% of China's imports, and high - sulfur fuel oil accounts for 21% of China's imports. Iranian refineries have started preventive shutdowns, and the supply gap of chemical products after the shutdown cannot be quickly filled [49][50][51]. - Iranian refineries' preventive shutdowns have led to Chinese large - scale private refineries starting preventive production cuts to prevent disruptions in Iranian crude oil supply [52]. - **Financial Assets** - Global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and reallocating to European and Chinese assets, which is beneficial to A - shares. A - shares are in a defensive state, and the bank ETF has reached a new high [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24-26 [1] - TCL founder and chairman Li Dongsheng and JD Group founder Liu Qiangdong are among 14 global leaders serving as co-chairs [1] - The forum will focus on five major topics including global economy, China's development, and industrial transformation [1] - The president and CEO of the World Economic Forum, Borge Brende, stated that this year's meeting will promote innovative cooperation to address global challenges [1]