Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the escalation of the trade dispute between the EU and the US, particularly regarding the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports by President Trump [1][2] - The EU is currently deliberating on how to respond to the US tariffs, with a focus on maintaining unity among member states while considering both negotiation and retaliation strategies [1][2] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated a preference for negotiation, extending the suspension of retaliatory measures against US tariffs until August 1 [1][3] Group 2 - European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange has expressed skepticism about the EU's approach, advocating for a stronger stance against Trump's tariffs, which he deems unreasonable [2] - French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for the EU to demonstrate its commitment to defending European interests, suggesting the use of all available tools, including countermeasures [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has stated that if negotiations fail, decisive countermeasures must be prepared to protect European jobs and businesses, although he does not advocate for immediate action [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, with Canada’s Prime Minister vowing to protect national interests and enhance global trade in response to the tariff threat [1] - In March, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, leading Canada to retaliate with a 25% tariff on $155 billion CAD worth of U.S. goods, with immediate effect on $30 billion CAD worth of products [3] - The U.S. began imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on March 12, with a previous plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum being retracted [3] Group 2 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada would implement reciprocal measures by imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. imported cars that do not comply with the USMCA [5] - Carney emphasized the interdependence of the U.S. and Canadian automotive industries, noting that half of the parts in Canadian-made cars come from the U.S. [7] - In June, the U.S. raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from all trade partners to 50%, which Carney criticized as unreasonable and illegal, stating it would negatively impact both U.S. and Canadian industries [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The corn market is expected to be volatile and weak. The 9 - 1 spread is rapidly shrinking, and if the support is ineffective, the futures price may approach the 2200 range. Attention should be paid to the auction and transaction of imported corn [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. Due to concerns about tariff disputes and the upcoming USDA reports, the market lacks clear guidance, and the funds' attention has declined. Short - term unilateral participation and holding 91, 15 positive spreads are recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The edible oil market is expected to be volatile and weak. The palm oil has led the rise, but the supply of domestic edible oils is generally loose, and the weak demand suppresses the spot market. Unilateral intraday trading is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be volatile. With the approach of the peak demand season after the plum - rain season, the demand will boost the egg price, but considering the supply pressure, the peak price is expected to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market stabilizes [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig market is expected to be volatile. The pig price is under pressure but also has support. Short - term volatility is expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of the feed end and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the corn futures closed with a doji. The 9 - month contract fell to a low of 2310 and then rebounded. The weighted contract's position increased after two months of reduction. The spot price was under pressure due to imported corn auctions. In the Northeast, the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and in the North China, the price was weak. The sales area price remained firm. The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will continue the imported corn auction in mid - July [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean fell for the third consecutive day. Concerns about tariff disputes led to fund selling. The market is waiting for the export sales report and the USDA 7 - month supply - demand report. Domestically, the protein meal fluctuated narrowly, the spot market was weak, and the import cost decreased [1]. - **Edible Oils**: The BMD palm oil rose for three consecutive days, but the weak CBOT soybean oil limited its upside. The Canadian rapeseed fell more than 3% due to technical selling. The MPOB will release the supply - demand report. Domestically, the palm oil led the rise, but the soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively weak, and the overall supply was loose [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures rebounded in the afternoon. The spot price was stable, and with the approach of the peak demand season, the demand will support the price, but the supply pressure exists [1][2]. - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the pig futures fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price was relatively stable. The northern market had price declines due to sales pressure, while the southern market had price support due to farmers' price - holding actions [2]. Market Information - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: BMI predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, the domestic consumption will decrease by 2% to 38 million tons due to slow biofuel target progress and stricter waste cooking oil trade restrictions [3]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the spot crushing profit of 8 - 9 month - shipping soybeans in South China is - 40 - 10 yuan/ton. The purchase of 8 - month - shipping soybeans is basically completed, over 60% of the 9 - month - shipping soybeans have been purchased, and there are no purchases for the 10 - 1 month - shipping soybeans [3]. - **USDA Report Forecasts**: Reuters' analysts predict that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is 169.25 million tons, the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.334 billion bushels with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is 126.31 million tons, the global 2025/26 corn ending inventory is 277.46 million tons, and the global 2025/26 wheat ending inventory is 262.69 million tons [3][4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15][19][25][26].

Group 1 - The U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, expressed optimism about the trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, believing a fair agreement will be reached soon [1] - Hoekstra highlighted that both President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney are negotiating for beneficial agreements for their respective countries, aiming for a "real win-win" situation [1] - Following the suspension of trade talks by Trump, Canada announced the cancellation of its digital services tax, aiming to finalize a trade agreement by July 21 [1] Group 2 - The background of the tariff dispute includes a trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, signed during Trump's first term, which was later disregarded by Trump in his second term [2] - In response to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tax on steel and aluminum, Canada implemented counter-tariffs on U.S. manufactured goods worth billions, including vehicles and consumer products [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney chose not to retaliate when Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum shortly after taking office [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring the impact of tariff increases on inflation, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that more time is needed to assess these effects before considering interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, trading at $3,330.39 per ounce with a 0.26% increase, after opening at $3,321.77 and reaching a high of $3,334.97 [1] - Following Powell's cautious remarks, market expectations for a July rate cut have significantly diminished, with investors now leaning towards a potential cut in September [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies adds complexity to the market, impacting gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices fell below the $3,300 mark due to geopolitical factors and Powell's speech, but rebounded to around $3,330 after his neutral stance on inflation [5] - The current resistance levels for gold are noted at $3,357 and $3,340, while support is observed at the previous low of $3,295 [6] - The strategy suggests waiting for a rebound near $3,340 to enter short positions, with a focus on whether the price can break below $3,295 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have recently declined due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with prices hitting a two-week low of 3295 before closing at approximately 3323, reflecting a drop of about 45 points [1] - The unexpected drop in the US June Consumer Confidence Index by 5.4 points to 93.0, marking a recent low, suggests increasing consumer concerns regarding job opportunities and the economic outlook for the next six months [1] - The market's shift towards risk appetite, driven by the ceasefire, has led to a rise in global stock markets and a decline in the US dollar, which fell below the 98 mark to around 97.8, contributing to the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Following Jerome Powell's remarks, the market adjusted its expectations regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, adding complexity to the market dynamics and leading to a temporary stabilization of gold prices [3] - Gold prices have retreated to the 30-day moving average around 3330, with short-term indicators suggesting a bearish trend, indicating a potential for further declines in the near term [3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade disputes continues to influence market sentiment, with expectations of a weak oscillating trend for gold prices in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Canada imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and China's retaliatory 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and canola meal, leading to fluctuations in canola prices and export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Price Fluctuations - Canada has implemented a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, prompting China to respond with a similar tariff on Canadian canola oil and canola meal starting March 2025 [1]. - Despite initial concerns about a significant drop in Canadian canola exports due to the tariffs, the actual decline has been less than expected, with prices rebounding sharply [1]. - As of May 27, 2023, Canadian canola futures reached CAD 733.5 per ton, marking a 34% increase from the recent low of CAD 546.5 per ton on March 14, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Export and Crushing Volume Trends - The forecast for Canadian canola exports from August 2024 to July 2025 indicates a 27% increase compared to the previous year, reaching 8.5 million tons [2]. - Actual exports as of June 1, 2023, have already met the forecasted volume of 8.5 million tons, exceeding expectations [2]. - Domestic crushing capacity in Canada is also on the rise, with projections for 2024-2025 reaching a record high of 11.5 million tons due to stable demand for canola oil and meal [2]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Many analysts believe that canola prices will remain high due to tight supply and demand dynamics [3]. - Market experts suggest that if the trend of position adjustments does not expand and soybean prices do not decline, current canola prices may stabilize around CAD 700 [3]. - Continuous price increases for canola oil used in salad dressings have been observed, with manufacturers negotiating further price hikes in the upcoming months [3].

Core Viewpoint - German Chancellor Merz anticipates reaching an agreement with the United States regarding the tariff dispute before the end of summer [1] Group 1 - The expectation of an agreement indicates a potential resolution to ongoing trade tensions between Germany and the United States [1] - The timing of the agreement is significant as it may impact economic relations and trade flows between the two countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German Chancellor Merz stated that the summit is unlikely to resolve the tariff dispute, but there is hope for making progress towards a solution [1] Group 1 - The summit is focused on addressing tariff disputes [1] - There is an emphasis on taking steps towards problem resolution [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is showing further signs of deterioration, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from -9.2 to -16 in June, reflecting a lack of recovery [2] - The New York Fed's new orders index also fell significantly from 7 to -14.2, indicating a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump aimed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but it has disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the decline in manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing widespread turmoil, with increased uncertainty overshadowing economic prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to focus on monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may maintain current interest rates due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance on easing [2] - There is a belief that the Fed should lower interest rates promptly given the economic challenges, but various factors are causing delays in such actions, potentially increasing downward pressure on the economy [2] Group 3 - The potential for "black swan" events could lead to a crisis for the U.S. economy, further undermining the dollar and American hegemony [3]