Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. importers are primarily bearing the burden of increased tariffs, with Chinese exporters currently absorbing about 12% of the tariff increment, particularly in the apparel sector [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Trade - The transmission of tariffs is a complex issue, with U.S. government tariff revenues surging in recent months. If the threatened tariffs from July materialize, the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. could rise to approximately 15.8% [2]. - U.S. import prices, excluding food and energy, have not decreased following the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," indicating that non-U.S. exporters have not lowered their prices, thus U.S. importers are likely absorbing most of the tariff increases [3]. Group 2: Cost Transfer to Consumers - U.S. companies have expressed both the willingness and ability to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Despite previous instances where importers absorbed tariff increases without significantly raising retail prices, the broader scope of current tariffs makes it difficult for companies to maintain profit margins without raising prices [4]. - If U.S. retailers fully absorb the tariff increases, their profit margins could decline by an average of about 1.8%, which is particularly challenging for industries with already thin margins like retail, apparel, and furniture [4]. Group 3: Price Changes in Consumer Goods - The analysis of over 60,000 U.S. import goods suggests that prices of U.S. consumer goods with high import content are beginning to reflect the impact of tariffs. Products with a high "Chinese content" have started to see mild price increases following the implementation of the "fentanyl tariff," while goods from other non-U.S. trading partners have not yet experienced price hikes [5]. - The sustainability of the current low inflation environment in the U.S. post-tariff implementation will depend on whether U.S. companies continue to absorb costs or pass them on to consumers, with potential inflationary pressures expected in the latter half of the year [5].

美联储博斯蒂克：消费者对关税传导的反应存在不确定性。 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 热点思考：美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？ 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 一、回顾：上半年美国通胀表现为何较弱？油价回落、服务通胀降温、关税传导尚不显著 在关税冲击下，美国市场、消费者通胀预期及进口价格上行，但CPI表现较弱。 密歇根大学1年通胀预期 一度飙升至6.6%，4月11日以来10Y美债隐含通胀预期上行13BP，进口价格指数也在4月、5月明显上涨。 但是，美国近几个月通胀却持续不及预期，5月CPI环比仅0.1%。 结构来看，上半年美国通胀的拖累主要来自于能源、核心服务、核心商品。 1）1-5月油价走弱拖累整体 通胀，但6月以来油价大幅反弹；2）美国房租、超级核心服务通胀均稳定降温，可持续性较强；3）关税 对于美国商品通胀已经产生推升效果，但幅度不及市场预期。 二、解构：关税的通胀效应为何低于预期？征收滞后、抢进口、贸易转移、企业吸收成本冲击 关税实际征收进度较慢，是美国通胀尚未明显上升的原因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The extent to which tariffs are passed on to consumers can vary significantly, indicating a complex relationship between trade policies and consumer prices [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly highlighted that there are multiple possibilities regarding how tariffs affect consumer pricing [1] - The transmission of tariffs to consumers is not uniform and can depend on various factors, suggesting that the impact on inflation may differ across sectors [1] - This variability in tariff transmission could influence monetary policy decisions and economic forecasts [1]

文章来源 报告导读： 5 月美国 CPI 环比回落，增速不及预期，核心商品中仅个别分项存在价格上 涨，整体尚未体现出关税影响。我们认为，在库存缓冲、关税政策与消费需求不确定性影 响下，企业提价或存在一定时滞， 6 月通胀数据仍存在反弹压力。在就业尚稳，通胀不确 定性仍存的情况下，美联储短期仍难以降息。 2025 年 5 月美国通胀环比回落，增速不及预期。 5 月美国 CPI 同比 2.4% （前值 2.3% ，市场预期 2.4% ），核心 CPI 同比维持在 2.8% （市场预期 2.9% ）。环比来看， 5 月 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，略低于市场预期（ 0.2% ）；核心 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，市场预期 0.3% 。 具体来看， 5 月除食品通胀环比有所回升外，能源、核心商品与核心服务通胀环比均较 4 月有所回落。 其中，能源是拖累 CPI 环比的核心分项。 核心商品方面， 5 月尚未体现出明显的通胀回升压力，仅在个 别分项通胀涨幅相对明显，例如家具（窗帘地毯）、汽车零件、玩具、电脑、药品等。而服装、新车、酒 精饮料等通胀环比增速均有回落； 核心服务方面 ， 租金、 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Costco's Supply Chain and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the home goods industry, particularly focusing on Costco's supply chain management and procurement strategies in response to tariff fluctuations and market demands [1][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact and Procurement Strategy**: - Costco is diversifying its procurement strategy to mitigate tariff impacts, shifting health products back to the U.S. or Canada and labor-intensive goods like clothing to Southeast Asia [1][5]. - Approximately 34%-40% of Costco's total procurement is affected by tariffs, particularly in grocery and apparel sectors [1][6]. - The company collaborates closely with Chinese home brands like Kuka and Treton Group, but full replacement of Chinese suppliers is expected to take 3-5 years [1][11]. - **Price Adjustments and Inflation**: - Furniture prices have increased by 3%-5% from 2023 to 2024 due to supply chain costs and tariffs, with further inflation expected in 2025 [1][12]. - Despite a decline in new home sales by 8%, rental demand is rising, which is expected to boost demand for affordable furniture [12]. - **Inventory Management**: - Costco has been proactive in stockpiling inventory to counter potential cost increases due to tariffs, maintaining a three-month inventory level [3][7]. - The company plans to continue this strategy while managing inventory pressure [7]. - **Growth in Specific Product Categories**: - Categories such as smart home products, outdoor furniture, and space-saving furniture have seen significant growth, with year-over-year increases of 25%, 15%, and 20% respectively [4][18]. - These categories are expected to be focal points for future development, adapting to rising prices through enhanced product features [4][18]. - **Supplier Dynamics and Regional Shifts**: - Southeast Asian factories are increasing capacity by 30%-40% annually, but complete replacement of Chinese suppliers will take 5-10 years [15]. - The transition to Southeast Asia is complicated by higher initial costs and operational challenges [28]. - **Sales Strategy and Market Adaptation**: - Costco's sales strategy will focus on existing suppliers, particularly small to medium-sized brands in Vietnam and Southeast Asia, while maintaining relationships with leading brands [14]. - The company anticipates a 10%-15% impact on home goods sales due to tariffs, but plans to adapt by adjusting product categories and maintaining quality [14][36]. Other Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - There is a shift towards online purchasing, especially for 3C and home goods, driven by competitive pricing on e-commerce platforms [27]. - The company acknowledges the need for flexibility in pricing strategies to remain competitive in a changing market [36]. - **Future Outlook**: - The expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025 may lead to a rebound in demand, with inventory cycles extending from 45-50 days to 60 days [24][33]. - Costco is committed to improving operational efficiency and managing costs while navigating the complexities of the current market environment [25][35]. - **Challenges in Supply Chain Transition**: - Transitioning production to Southeast Asia presents challenges, including higher operational costs and the need for local market adaptation [28][30]. - Despite these challenges, some suppliers are already beginning to shift production to avoid tariff impacts, although large-scale production remains difficult [29]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting Costco's strategic responses to current market dynamics and challenges within the home goods industry.