Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

与此同时，亿万富翁马斯克在周日再度介入，在X平台上公开抨击该法案称其将"摧毁美国数百万个就 业岗位，对国家造成巨大战略损害"。 法案核心内容引发债务担忧 该法案的核心目标是延长特朗普首个任期内实施的大规模减税政策，这一直是特朗普重返白宫后的优先 事项。他向参议员们施压，要求在7月4日的假期前完成立法。 为了为减税延期和增加军事及边境安全支出提供资金，该法案大幅削减了医疗和社会福利项目的资金， 并取消了对小费和加班费的税收。 这些措施引发了激烈争论。民主党参议院少数党领袖Chuck Schumer批评共和党试图"在深夜偷偷通过激 进法案"，指责其缺乏透明度并可能损害公众利益。 共和党为通过特朗普税收法案艰难争取票数，债务激增与政治分歧加剧。 华尔街见闻提及，当地时间周六晚间，美国参议院以51票对49票的微弱优势启动了"大漂亮"法案的辩论 程序，周日国会内争论持续，民主党要求全文宣读长达940页的法案文本，推迟表决进程，法案前景仍 充满不确定性。 特朗普在周日凌晨通过其Truth Social平台发帖称："今晚我们在参议院看到了伟大的胜利。今晚我为共 和党感到非常自豪。" 马斯克的再次发声为法案推进增添变数。 马 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据无党派机构美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新估计，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 税收和支出方案将导致美国十年内赤字增加近3.3万亿美元。 美国国会预算办公室对所谓的"大而美法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)的评估结果显示，与现行法律的 基准情况相比，到2034年，该法案将导致财政收入减少4.5万亿美元，支出减少1.2万亿美元。 根据共和党的要求，参议院的这项法案被评估为在十年内相较于现行政策基准可节省5076亿美元。共和 党议员一直试图利用这种会计手段永久性地延长特朗普2017年的所得税减免政策，并将其成本评估为 零。 根据美国联合税务委员会周六的估计，该法案包括价值4.5万亿美元的减税措施。 共和党人正在采用和解程序试图凭借简单多数票通过这项重大法案，但在该程序中使用现行政策基准来 衡量成本的做法史无前例。通常情况下，一项法案的成本是根据其在现行法律框架下对联邦预算的影响 来衡量的。但共和党人却想改变这一程序，他们假定现行政策无限期地保持不变。 该法案的成本一直是财政保守派面临的一大难题。由于议员们提出的修改要求相互矛盾，该法案在参议 院遭遇重重阻力。随后，该 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性，中美谈判进展或促风 险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国通胀数据缓和 ⚫ 核心观点： 发布时间：2025-06-16 | 1 海外宏观数据跟踪 4 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 4 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 8 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 9 | | 3 风险提示 9 | 周三公布的美国通胀数据好于预期，反映前期补库行为可能部分 抵消了关税影响。从分项上看，领先指标新租约租金数据指示，核心 服务中的住房分项预计仍将持续回落。同时，申领失业金人数上升显 示劳动力市场正在松动，或将进一步拖累核心服务 CPI 中的其他分 项。中东局势升级为油价带来一定的上行风险，但鉴于双方实力差距， 地缘政治对油价的影响可能偏向短期。美联储方面，尽管通胀风险缓 和，但关税影响或 ...

对于美债失控的问题，特朗普不是没有注意到，他也曾尝试通过一些政策来挽救，比如大举推动裁员工作，试图降低联邦政府开支。加征关税，除了逼大量 国家进口美国商品，也有其他目的，就是想要通过吸纳关税，来弥补美国政府的财政赤字。 但是以上政策当下不是失败，就是走在失败的路上。"政府效率部"裁员裁到自己的负责人干不下去了，至于关税政策，如今特朗普连日本都拿捏不了，日本 首相石破茂已经不止一次明确表示不会对美方让步！更离谱的是什么呢？特朗普一边想尽了办法向别国抢钱，另一边却还想在国内减税，更提高军费。这种 让全球为几亿美国人不劳而获甚至醉生梦死生活买单的行径，无疑是国际社会不能容忍的。 此地无银三百两！美财长公开预告美债最终结局，可信吗？特朗普彻底背叛自己的竞选承诺，或将引发怎样的后果？ 日前，美国财政部长贝森特在接受美媒采访之际，明确表示美国永远不会违约，尽管他承认美国正处于警戒线上，但"永远不会碰壁"。贝森特所提的不会， 是针对美债现状做出的承诺。在这里，贝森特预告美债最终结局，绝不会违约，颇有一种此地无银三百两的意味，他不说还好，越是这么解释，越是等同于 承认，如今美债正面临巨大危机！ 今年4月，美债规模突破36.2 ...

《加息尾声的美元反弹》20230521 《关注货币活性下降》20230813 《美债利率上行遇阻》20231029 《如何看待美债利率回落》20231105 《中债收益率曲线已较为平坦》20231112 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《当前影响利率的财政因素》20240630 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《DeepSeek，DOGE，贸易摩擦》20250209 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《AI、黄金与美债》20250302 《"以股看债"或成重要思路》20250309 《美联储如期放缓"缩减"》20250321 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" and its implications on the U.S. economy and fiscal policy. Core Insights and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to significantly expand the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, particularly between 2025 and 2028, with 2027 projected to be the peak year for deficit increase. Post-2028, the expansion rate is expected to slow down as spending cuts are implemented [1][5][9]. - Without considering tariff impacts, the U.S. deficit rate may remain above 6% for the next 30 years, potentially exceeding 10% by 2055 [1][5]. - Tax reduction policies have varying impacts across income groups, benefiting high-income individuals the most while low-income groups see minimal benefits. For the lowest 20% income bracket, the negative effects of tariffs may outweigh the positive effects of tax cuts, leading to an overall negative outcome [1][6]. - Historical data indicates that tax cuts typically boost the stock market and significantly enhance corporate profitability. For instance, after the tax cuts implemented in 2018, most sectors experienced positive profit growth, particularly in energy, finance, and industrial sectors [1][7]. - There are notable differences between the Senate and House versions of the "Beautiful Act." The Senate proposes a $5.8 trillion increase in the deficit budget, including $3.8 trillion for the extension of the TCJA, while the House version suggests a $2.8 trillion increase. The Senate's proposed spending cuts are significantly lower than those in the House version [1][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The timeline of the Trump fiscal plan shows an initial increase in deficit and spending during his term (2025-2028) to stimulate the economy, with a significant reduction in deficit expected after the 2029 transition to a new president [1][9]. - The U.S. fiscal expansion policy is influenced by various rules, such as the Paygo principle and the Byrd rule, which require new legislation not to increase the deficit over ten years. However, past presidents have often favored expanding fiscal spending to boost the economy, suggesting a continued trend of deficit increase in the future [1][10]. - Trump's tariff policy plays a crucial role in the advancement of the tax reduction plan. Tariff revenues are a significant supplement to U.S. fiscal income, and any inability to collect these tariffs could increase fiscal pressure. Despite challenges, Trump may still implement tariffs through other means, ensuring that the tax reduction plan's outcome remains largely unaffected [1][11]. - The likelihood of the tax reduction plan passing is bolstered by the reconciliation process, requiring only 51 Republican votes in the House for approval. Current dynamics suggest that as long as opposition votes are limited, the plan can proceed [1][12]. - Balancing future tax reductions with increased deficits will require navigating existing regulations while addressing practical operational needs. The trend indicates a continued push towards fiscal expansion, with potential adjustments in tariff policies to maintain economic stability [1][13].

摘要 特朗普政府提出的《美丽大法案》旨在延长和升级现有减税政策，包括 个人所得税率降低、标准扣除额设置和遗产税免除等，预计居民部分财 政扩张约为 4 万亿美元，但个人所得税率永久化可能带来未来十年累计 约 10.2 万亿美元赤字。 法案对企业所得税维持 21%不变，仅在厂房投资费用化、折旧摊销计算 方式及利润转移等方面进行小幅调整，以避免财政压力过大。同时，通 过取消清洁能源退税、限制移民福利等措施，部分收窄赤字。 为确保政府资金运转，《美丽大法案》需提高约 4 万亿美元债务上限， 并通过削减医疗补助、平价医疗法案补贴、食品券、学生贷款以及取消 通胀削减法案环保资金等措施平衡支出。 《美丽大法案》在参议院审核过程中可能面临修改，参议院可修改违反 博德规则的内容。最终版本需经参众两院共同同意，并由总统签署生效。 共和党内部对《美丽大法案》存在分歧，部分参议员反对债务上限提高 规模过大或支出削减不足。7 月末至 8 月初是提高债务上限的硬约束期， 9 月 30 日是预算决议的最后期限。 特朗普预算法案详解（上）：《美丽大法案》的内容和关 注要点 20250604 《美丽大法案》主要是为了推行减税，并对预算进行修改 ...

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily influenced by tariff policies, with a peak at 109 in early 2025 and a drop below 100 in April[1][7]. - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts, while medium to long-term pressures include ongoing US debt issues, recession risks, and de-dollarization narratives[1][7]. - Key factors suppressing the USD include the continuous evolution of US debt issues, recession risks compounded by high interest rates, and the narrative of de-dollarization[1][7]. Group 2: HK Stock Market Strategy - Following a joint statement from China and the US on May 12, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%, but the upward trend did not sustain, leading to a "wait and see" market attitude[2][10]. - Southbound capital inflows continue but at a slower pace, with over HKD 16.5 billion net inflow into the banking sector, while the technology sector faced a net outflow exceeding HKD 20.5 billion[2][10]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is slightly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment[2][10]. Group 3: US Economic Outlook - The outlook for the US economy remains unclear due to fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on inflation, with a potential rise in overall inflation post-tariff implementation[3][14]. - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 has exceeded USD 1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest deficit for a half-year period in history[3][14]. - The combination of rising interest rates and upcoming debt ceiling negotiations presents significant challenges for US fiscal policy in the latter half of 2025[3][14]. Group 4: US Stock Market Outlook - Major US indices have recovered from significant declines, reflecting investor confidence in the US economic fundamentals and policy adjustments[4][17]. - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" are expected to create structural opportunities in the US stock market, particularly benefiting traditional energy and local automotive sectors[4][17]. - Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating tariff policies, the US stock market is projected to exhibit a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025[4][17]. Group 5: US Treasury Yield Trends - US long-term treasury yields have risen above 5%, with the 20-year and 30-year yields maintaining levels above 5.0% since late May[5][21]. - The increase in yields is attributed to the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the debt ceiling, which may lead to increased treasury supply and liquidity withdrawal[5][21]. - The expectation of delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns is likely to keep treasury yields elevated for an extended period[5][21].