Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tariffs on various industries, particularly focusing on consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Elasticity and Profit Impact**: A static estimate indicates a tariff elasticity of 1.7, meaning a 10% increase in tariffs leads to a 17% decline in U.S.-China trade volume. This is used to assess the net profit impact across industries based on their revenue exposure to the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Overreaction in Stock Prices**: Industries such as consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals have experienced significant stock price declines that exceed the actual net profit damage, indicating a need for valuation adjustments due to long-term revenue shortages [1][5]. - **Ongoing Risks Under Current Tariff Scenarios**: Maintaining the current 145% equivalent tariff or a worse scenario of 125% equivalent tariff plus a 20% offset could lead to continued risks of stock price declines across various sectors [1][6]. - **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Under the 232 investigation results, a 25% tariff (totaling 45%) will significantly affect kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals, while consumer electronics have been excluded from this category [1][7]. - **Potential for Negotiation Progress**: If U.S.-China negotiations yield positive results, tariffs could revert to a 54% level, allowing for some industries to rebound from their current depressed state [1][8]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: In the most favorable scenario, if the 125% equivalent tariff is removed and only a 20% anti-dumping tariff is applied without introducing new products subject to a 25% tariff, industries such as small appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, communication equipment, textile manufacturing, and certain industrial metal sectors could see significant recovery [1][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Opportunities**: The focus should also be on emerging export categories with low global penetration and potential for growth, such as automotive parts, shipbuilding, machinery, medical devices, and chemical products. Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity in these sectors are better positioned to withstand risks [2][10]. - **Traditional Advantage Industries**: Industries where China holds a significant share of global production and market power, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), electronic components, and chemicals, are likely to maintain their competitive edge despite high tariffs due to supply chain and cost advantages [10].

Core Viewpoint - The export chain of listed companies in Q1 2025 is expected to perform well, driven by factors such as foreign trade enterprises "grabbing exports," accelerated expansion of mid-to-high-end products in overseas markets, and the ongoing efforts of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is projected to be 15.33%, a significant increase of 14.54 percentage points compared to 2024A [1]. Group 1: Export Chain Performance - The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is 15.33%, up from 0.80% in 2024A, outperforming the overall non-financial A-share market, which saw a decline of 12.94% [1]. - The export chain's performance indicates strong support from external demand over the past six months [1]. Group 2: Industry Overseas Revenue Proportion - As of the end of 2024, the highest overseas revenue proportion is in the electronics industry at 41.7%, followed by home appliances at 38.5% [2]. - Industries with over 20% overseas revenue proportions include automotive (26.5%), machinery manufacturing (23.8%), and light industry manufacturing (22.5%) [2]. - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in overseas revenue proportion, rising by 4.76 percentage points compared to 2023 [2]. Group 3: Trends in Overseas Revenue - Since 2018, sectors such as automotive, personal care, and machinery have rapidly increased their overseas revenue proportions, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green exports [2]. - The electronics and communications sectors have experienced a noticeable decline in overseas revenue proportions due to geopolitical issues [2]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - In 2024, industries such as non-ferrous metals and mid-to-high-end manufacturing have made significant progress in overseas business, with notable increases in overseas revenue proportions [4]. - The sectors with the most substantial marginal improvements in overseas revenue proportions include other electronics (+15.06 percentage points) and home goods (+9.23 percentage points) [4]. Group 5: Exposure to International Markets - The report categorizes industries based on their exposure to various international markets, highlighting those with high exposure to the U.S. and those with declining exposure [6]. - Industries currently with high exposure to the U.S. include home appliances, medical devices, and computer equipment, while sectors like communications and media have seen a decrease in U.S. exposure [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Export Chain Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the export chain industry, particularly the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on Southeast Asian manufacturing and the overall market dynamics [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - Recent fluctuations in export volumes were significantly influenced by the U.S. announcement to suspend tariffs on other countries for 90 days, which provided marginal improvement for the industry [3]. - The imposition of higher tariffs in Southeast Asian countries (e.g., Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) exceeded market expectations, leading to a notable decline in stock prices [4]. - Domestic listed companies have accelerated the transfer of production capacity to Southeast Asia since the first trade war in 2018, aiming for cost optimization [4]. - Despite high tariffs, the overall impact on revenue and profit is limited due to the existing production capacity in Southeast Asia, which has higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [5]. - The 10% basic tariff is typically borne by customers or shared between manufacturers and customers, with manufacturers' share being less than 50%, thus having a limited effect on profit margins [6]. - The concentration of factories in Vietnam and Southeast Asia may increase, enhancing localization advantages and reducing risks associated with policy fluctuations [7]. - The demand from the U.S., particularly in the real estate sector, is crucial for determining the downstream economic trends in light industry [8]. Additional Important Insights - Current inventory levels in the U.S. have reached historical medians, indicating that inventory is not low, which could affect future demand [8]. - Several export chain companies have seen their stock prices drop below critical profit points, revealing mid-term value opportunities as recent policy changes have led to stock price rebounds [9]. - The call highlighted specific companies such as Zhejiang Natural, Jiayi, Jiangxin, Gongshang Turf, Gujia, and Minhua as key investment targets due to their potential benefits from the current market conditions [9].

这也能够解释为何中小盘指数（1000、2000）的走势在上半年的规律性比较强。 本文作者：刘晨明/ 郑恺 报告摘要 随着 前期市场风格极致裂口有所弥合，市场对于下一阶段的风格较为关注。我们主要对比以下【三类资 产】：经济周期、稳定价值、景气 成长。 年末年初"炒预期"的阶段情绪退潮， 市场进入去伪求真窗口期 过去5年的数据显示，4月是A股一年当中"最交 易基本面"的一个月，二三季度也是"景气投资"最为有效 的时间窗口。这意味着，下一阶段，市场将从年末年初的"炒预期"，逐渐进入到对于业绩 的前瞻与验证， A股一季报的关注度随之抬升。 总量维度的一季报前瞻： 收入和利润有望双双企稳回升 参考一季度的工业增加值/PPI ，以及1-2月的工业企业利润数据，一季报A股非金融总体的收入增速、利 润增速有望筑底回升。 其中，基于统计局口径，1-2 月已经释放利润改善趋势的行业主要是： 涨价线索 （有色、化学原料及化 学制 品）、 设备类 （交运设备、通用设备、专用设备）、 稳定类 （燃气 、 废弃资源利用）、 出口链 （纺织、汽车）等。 | 大类 | 行业类别 | 细分行业 | | 25年1-2月 2024-12 2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of stock performance in the export chain, particularly highlighting the importance of earnings seasons for price movements and the need for companies to deliver on EPS expectations to drive stock prices upward [2][8][12]. Export Chain Performance - The stock performance of export chain companies tends to rise during earnings seasons, with a focus on EPS growth rather than valuation increases [2][8]. - As of March 2024, many companies in the export chain have seen their PE ratios fall to a favorable range of 10-15X, indicating potential for upward movement as earnings reports approach [11][12]. - Key sectors such as transformers, wind power equipment, motorcycles, air conditioners, injection molding machines, buses, and hand tools/electric tools have shown over 10% growth in exports during January-February 2024 [12][15]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is characterized by cyclical demand, with overseas durable goods and industrial products showing strong competitive advantages [19][20]. - Companies like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are recommended for their strong positions in overseas durable goods, while SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others are highlighted for their industrial products [21][22]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing a shift due to U.S. tariffs, which have accelerated the competitive landscape, benefiting leading companies with overseas production capabilities [30][34]. - Companies such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang are recommended for their high export ratios to the U.S. and strong growth prospects [35][38]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is expected to face challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in export amounts due to increased tariffs from the U.S. [39][44]. - However, many companies have global production layouts that help mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some benefiting from large customer orders [44][45]. Military Industry - The military industry is poised for growth due to global demand for military equipment and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe [47][50]. - Companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace South Lake are highlighted for their potential in military trade, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [48][56].