Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the A-share market has led to increased investor interest and discussions about whether this marks the beginning of a bull market and what investment opportunities are available [4]. Market Recovery Insights - The A-share market has shown a noticeable recovery, with one investor maintaining a 70% position and feeling content with the market's upward movement [6]. - The fund manager emphasizes a bottom-up approach to identify investment opportunities, noting that market activity increases during overall market uptrends, making it easier for undervalued stocks to return to their fair value [6][7]. Market Conditions and Asset Repricing - In recent years, with a pessimistic economic outlook, many investors opted for stable return assets due to risk aversion. However, as market interest rates decline, the yield on these assets has compressed, leading to a rapid repricing of assets as optimism returns [7]. - The fund manager believes that the current market environment is favorable for equity assets, especially as domestic companies are relatively high-quality and recent policies have improved operational stability [7]. Growth and Dividend Assets Performance - Growth and dividend assets have performed well, while large-cap growth stocks have lagged due to macroeconomic influences and a digestion of valuations as growth rates decline [8]. - The fund manager suggests that as the market stabilizes and profitability improves, large-cap growth assets may perform better in the future [8]. Market Timing and Investment Strategies - One investor shares experiences of using a systematic approach to investment, finding that a managed account performed better in timing than personal decisions, leading to a preference for regular investment strategies over market timing [9][10]. - The fund manager advises against trying to time the market, suggesting that understanding historical valuation levels of core indices can provide insights into market conditions [10]. Investment Opportunities - Beyond widely recognized sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, the concept of "anti-involution" presents non-consensus investment opportunities, particularly in industries that may be at cyclical lows [12]. - Successful past examples of anti-involution include the aluminum and refrigerant industries, where government policies helped improve profitability by limiting excess capacity [13][14]. Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market has shown significant potential, with many quality companies performing well after previous declines, leading to attractive valuations [16]. - The influx of mainland capital and the evolving nature of the market suggest that there are still many investment opportunities in Hong Kong, particularly among smaller companies [16]. Future Investment Strategies - The fund manager's investment philosophy focuses on acquiring quality growth assets at reasonable prices, aiming for moderate returns while managing risk [23]. - The current strategy involves maintaining a mix of stable growth and trend growth assets, while remaining sensitive to early-stage investment opportunities to enhance portfolio flexibility [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies from a passive "Buy America" approach focused on the S&P 500 and tech giants to a more diversified and active investment strategy due to market changes and overexposure to technology stocks [1][4][5]. Investment Strategy Changes - Investors are advised to reduce their concentration in U.S. assets while still recognizing the fundamental strengths of the U.S. economy and the S&P 493, which excludes the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [7]. - The traditional view of increasing bond allocations with age is being challenged, with a suggestion to consider high-dividend stocks instead, as many tech giants offer minimal or no dividends [8]. Global Market Opportunities - European markets are seen as undervalued, with potential growth driven by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, making it an attractive investment area [9][16]. - Emerging markets like Japan and India are highlighted for their improving investment environments, with Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's growing industries being particularly noted [20][21]. Stock Recommendations - Specific stock picks include Intuitive Surgical, Arista Networks, and Gap Inc., which are suggested for their growth potential despite the current market challenges [13][14][15]. - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6][11]. Alternative Investments - Gold is presented as a strong investment option amid economic uncertainty, with its status as a "safe-haven asset" reaffirmed by recent price increases [24]. - Various gold investment channels are analyzed, including coins, bars, and ETFs, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [26][28][29].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has finally surpassed the 3600-point mark, which has not been seen for nearly a decade, leading to optimism about a potential bull market [1][4] - The bull market has already begun in certain sectors, such as the banking index and innovative pharmaceutical index, which have shown significant gains [5][6] - Historical data indicates that while the overall index may rise, individual sector performance can vary greatly, with some sectors lagging behind [6][7] Group 2 - During previous bull markets, the Shanghai Composite Index's growth was less than 100%, and less than 35% of sectors experienced over 100% growth, indicating a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive one [6][10] - The performance of individual stocks during a bull market can lead to significant disparities in returns, emphasizing the importance of sector selection [7][11] - The article highlights that many investors may not benefit from the bull market if they are invested in underperforming sectors, regardless of the index's performance [11][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that the focus should not solely be on whether a bull market has arrived, but rather on whether individual accounts are positioned to benefit from it [13][14] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended to capture opportunities across different markets and asset classes, regardless of market conditions [16][24] - The All Weather Strategy, as demonstrated by Bridgewater, shows that a diversified approach can yield stable returns across various macroeconomic environments [16][19][22]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that becoming a successful long-term investor is easier said than done, as it requires discipline and emotional control [4][6] - Historical data shows that the average annual return of stocks, adjusted for inflation, has been around 6% to 7% over the past two centuries, but future returns may be lower, around 5% [6][7] - Stocks are considered excellent long-term hedges against inflation, as they represent ownership of real assets [7][8] Group 2 - The risk associated with stocks decreases over time, while the risk of bonds increases, suggesting that long-term investors should hold a higher proportion of stocks [7][8] - Investing in low-cost, globally diversified index funds has historically outperformed most actively managed funds [8][9] - Value stocks have historically provided better returns and lower risk compared to growth stocks, indicating a potential strategy for portfolio adjustment [8][9] Group 3 - A strict investment plan is essential to maintain focus and avoid emotional trading, especially during market fluctuations [12][15] - The book suggests that investors should seek professional advice to help construct and maintain a diversified investment portfolio [17][18] - The overarching theme is that stocks remain the best avenue for wealth accumulation over the long term, a view that has persisted since the book's first edition [18]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 这几年，虽然A股和海外市场，涨跌走势有区别。但有一点是共通的：指数基金都得到了飞速 发展。 A股指数基金，在2024年，规模超过三万亿，创下历史新高。 在2024年前几个月时间里，规模就增长了几千亿。这几乎是A股指数基金诞生前十年的规模增长之 和。 海外指数基金的增长速度也非常快，并没有停下脚步。 有朋友问，指数基金在海外最早是怎么发展起来的呢？ 从海外指数基金的发展历程中，能否窥见一些A股指数基金的发展趋势呢？ 美股指数基金的发展历程，大体上可以分为三个阶段。 阶段一：理论奠基期 第一个阶段，是20世纪初-60年代，理论基础阶段。 这个阶段，很多经济学领域的著名学者，提出的重要理论，为指数基金的诞生奠定了理论基 础。 例如， • 巴舍利耶，提出了市场涨跌不可预测。 • 马科维茨，提出了分散配置，可以降低波动风险。 • 威廉·夏普，提出了阿尔法、贝塔收益，并构建了资本资产定价模型。 • 尤金·法马，提出了市场有效假说，并且日后又丰富了自己的观点，证明有策略可以获得超越 市场的收益。 系统学习过金融知识的朋友，对这些理论可能都比较熟悉了。 这些理论提出者的名字，也经常出现 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 过去几年，人民币债券是一轮小牛市。 到了2024年，长期债券在上涨后，波动也逐渐变大。 很多朋友都会关心： 这里为大家准备了一门限时免费的课程，详细介绍了债券指数基金的相关问题。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 债券基金 」即可领取～ ◆◆◆ · 债券基金的收益和风险，有哪些特点？ · 为何普通投资者，更适合投资债券指数基金？ · 当前哪些债券指数基金，投资价值较高？ 风险，投资者可能也会损失惨重。 这点在股票基金上也成立。 比如，分散配置中证A500和中证红利（各 自比例为50%），并且每年再平衡一次， 相比沪深300，收益要更高，波动风险也 更小一些。 也就是说，分散配置+再平衡，会得到1+1 ＞2的效果。 马科维茨也把分散配置,称为是投资中唯 一的免费午餐。 他也因此获得了1990年诺贝尔经济学奖。 马科维茨的理论,也为指数基金的诞生提 供了坚实的理论基础。 马科维茨从这个角度入手开始研究，提出 了「投资组合」理论，也是现代投资中, 最重要的理论之一。 这个理论用一句话概括，就是：分散配 置，可以减少风险。 分散配置一篮子相互独立的股票，可以降 低投 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ·37%的投资者,持有不到90天卖出,平 均收益3%。 ·能坚持持有5年以上的，只有0.4%。 0.4%是什么概念呢? 举个例子,高三考生考大学,在山东能考 上985的，占当年所有考生的1.4%。 而坚持持有基金5年的投资者只有0.4%。 比一个学生考上985，还要难3倍以上。 那怎么才能坚持下来呢?这里也介绍3个 方法。 (1) 用长期不用的闲钱投资 投资者中途放弃的一个很重要的原因,是 「短钱长投」。原本没打算做长期投资, 把几个月就要用的钱投入了。 市场短期的涨跌无法预测。每次市场在低 迷阶段，持续的时间长度也是不同的。 这也是为什么一直建议大家，用3-5年以 上长期不用的闲钱投资。这样中间遇到大 涨大跌，才更容易拿得住。 (2) 分散配置 如果投资者单个品种过于重仓，可能就会 比较难受了。甚至会有不少投资者会倒在 上涨到来之前。 所以，投资的时候,做好分散配置,是减 少波动风险的好方法。 (3) 在低估区域投资 字 。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 股票资产中,单个股票,波动比单个行业 大很多；单个行业的波动，比分散配置的 一个组合的波动大很多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from four years of investment experience, emphasizing that investing requires rational planning and long-term commitment rather than following trends blindly [3]. Group 1: The Cost of Following Trends - The investment in popular funds, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and military, led to significant losses when market conditions changed, revealing the risks of single-sector investments [4][6]. - A specific growth value fund experienced a maximum drawdown of over 50% due to heavy exposure to technology stocks during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Misconceptions About Dollar-Cost Averaging - Increasing investment amounts in a declining market did not yield the expected results, as the account faced multiple interruptions due to insufficient funds, missing opportunities to buy at lower prices [9]. - The failure to adjust investment strategies based on market valuations resulted in continued losses, highlighting the importance of timely decision-making [10][12]. Group 3: Emotional Decision-Making - During a market rally in September 2024, the account still showed a loss of over 40%, leading to a decision to cut losses by redeeming a quarter of the investment, which ultimately missed out on subsequent gains [14][15]. - The experience underscored the need for stop-loss decisions to be based on fundamentals rather than emotions, and the importance of investing with disposable income [16]. Group 4: Key Lessons and Insights - Diversification is crucial to survival, as over-concentration in high-volatility sectors can lead to significant setbacks during corrections; a balanced approach with value funds or fixed-income products is recommended [18]. - A long-term perspective and disciplined execution are essential, with stable investment amounts and dynamic valuation thresholds for profit-taking [20][21]. - Independent thinking is more valuable than following trends, as short-term performance may not reflect long-term stability; index funds are suggested for long-term investments over active funds [22]. Group 5: Rebuilding Investment Confidence - The company is now reallocating previously liquidated funds into diversified indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, and major U.S. indices, adhering to a "five-year hold + annual review" strategy to achieve recovery through low-cost averaging [24]. - The narrative concludes with a belief that respecting market dynamics and maintaining a disciplined approach are key to preserving capital and achieving long-term success [25][26].

下图展示的是，A股ETF在过去二十年左右的时间中，数量和规模的增长情况。 可以看到，从2004年到2014年左右，ETF的规模都非常小。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近几年，A股指数基金迎来了爆发式的增长。 有统计数据显示，截至2024年4季度末，A股全市场有2605只指数基金，整体规模突破了5.3万亿元，相比去年同期增加了74.48%。 那么，为什么指数基金会有一个爆发式的增长？它有怎样的优势呢？ A股指数基金的爆发式增长 一直到2020年，ETF的规模才达到了1万亿。 而到了2023年底，ETF的规模就突破了2万亿。 截至2025年3月12日，则是已经达到3.8万亿。 可见近几年，A股指数基金数量和规模，正以惊人的速度增长。 螺丝钉也在图上标注了，几个标志性的时间点： 未来，螺丝钉也会坚持日更，一起相约估值表10000期。 陪伴广大投资者，一起见证指数基金发展的黄金时期。 另一个标志性的事件是，在2024年3月，A股第一只2000亿元的非货币基金诞生了，它是一只沪深300的指数基金。 下图是这只基金成立以来的规模走势。 可以看到，这只沪深300指数基金的规模，从2012年-2017年的漫长时 ...

大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 第一篇： 《 散户真的能击败机构么：彼得·林奇的投资秘诀 》 基金投资中的风格轮动 今天螺丝钉带你读书，介绍的，是美国传奇基金经理，彼得·林奇的《战胜华尔街》。 上一篇我们介绍了，在投资中，散户也具备一些独特的"不对称优势"，发挥这些优势，可以帮助我们提高收益。 这一篇，我们介绍的是基金投资中的风格轮动。 市场上常见的基金风格 在《战胜华尔街》书中，彼得·林奇作为基金经理，也分析了，市场上常见的几种基金风格。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你103本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾： （1）均衡风格 代表是彼得·林奇。 兼顾成长和价值，在行业配置上也比较分散。 像彼得·林奇，从业生涯中，调研过数千家上市公司，横跨多种不同的行业。 持仓 ...