Group 1 - Gold prices showed strong rebound after hitting a near two-week low of 3382.61, closing at 3313.38, with current trading around 3324 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.49% to 44458.3, S&P 500 up 0.61% to 6263.26, and Nasdaq up 0.94% to 20611.34, marking a historical high [2] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with officials noting steady economic expansion despite uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation expectations and interest rate outlook, with discussions indicating significant uncertainty about future price trends [5] - President Trump announced new tariffs on products from eight countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, which has raised concerns about trade flows and the global economy [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, impacting market volatility [8] Group 3 - The situation in the Red Sea has escalated, with Houthi forces claiming to have attacked and sunk three commercial vessels, indicating a worsening crisis in the region [10] - Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have stalled, with Israeli military actions continuing against Palestinian targets, reflecting ongoing tensions [11] - The arrest of former South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl has raised concerns about political stability and potential implications for governance in South Korea [12][13]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 773.30 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.49% and a trading volume of 205,604 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai is quoted at 768.55 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.75 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from several countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff and others facing rates ranging from 20% to 30%, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting reveal increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [2] - Participants generally believe that the current monetary policy may be moderately restrictive, allowing the committee to wait for clearer inflation and economic activity prospects [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring U.S. initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials [3] - Despite Trump's announcement of tariffs, the market does not expect a significant rise in tariffs, leading to limited reaction in gold prices [3] - The gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold premium narrowing to 2.2 CNY per gram, indicating a range-bound trading strategy for gold [3]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely keep the official cash rate unchanged in the July meeting, adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its dovish stance from the May monetary policy statement but will not provide strong guidance on the timing of any further rate cuts [1] - The bank predicts that the market will have the discretion to determine whether the Reserve Bank will implement a rate cut to 3% in August, delay it until later this year, or completely abandon the idea of a rate cut [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The Reserve Bank may indicate that economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 is stronger than expected, but subsequent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic momentum, aligning with the forecasts made in May [1] - There may be an emphasis on short-term inflation remaining at concerningly high levels [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with low inventory providing strong support and attention to macro - guidance [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The weakening US economic data and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East made the market nervous. The May retail sales in the US were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was still supported by strong salary growth. The market generally expects the Fed to keep the target range of the overnight interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [1] - In June, the price of bauxite fluctuated. The cost of alumina did not change significantly, but due to profit recovery, some previously shut - down and reduced alumina production capacity resumed, and new production capacity was released, leading to an increase in the operating capacity of alumina [2] - In June, the downstream aluminum processing industry was in a strong off - season atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with the previous week, and the operating rates of different sectors were divided [2] - On June 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 458,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday. In mid - June, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingots slowed down significantly. Affected by the regional transfer driven by the price difference between regions, the weekend arrivals in Shanghai, Wuxi in East China and Gongyi in Central China increased significantly, while the inventory in Foshan, South China decreased significantly, and the inventory in other domestic regions remained stable [2] - Overseas macro instability still exists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for the aluminum price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The spot of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas may face a situation of weak supply and demand, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not comment on the economic or interest rate outlook during his speech [1] Group 1 - The absence of commentary on economic conditions may indicate a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [1] - Lack of guidance on interest rates could lead to uncertainty in financial markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, did not comment on the interest rate outlook or economic conditions in his prepared remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve Commentary** - Jefferson's prepared remarks lacked any insights regarding the future of interest rates [1] - No statements were made concerning the current economic situation [1]

今日周二（5月13日）欧市盘中，黄金期货延续前一交易日大跌走势，目前最新沪金主力暂报765.00元/ 克，跌幅1.97%，今日开盘价为760.80元/克，截至目前最高上探766.60元/克，最低触及756.02元/克。 市场目光现在聚焦于即将公布的美国CPI数据（北京时间20:30公布），这份报告可能成为决定黄金短期 走势的关键催化剂。如果通胀数据保持粘性，将进一步强化市场对美联储推迟降息的预期，美元可能获 得支撑，而黄金则面临新的压力。目前，交易员正在重新评估利率前景，此前预期的7月降息时间点可 能延后至9月，全年降息幅度预期也从55个基点有所下调。 【黄金期货走势分析】 短线来看目前黄金期货价格下跌，截至发稿暂报765.00元/克，跌幅1.97%，最高上探766.60元/克，最低 触及756.02元/克。今日上方阻力位为820-825，下方支撑位为736-746. 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【宏观消息】 数据显示，美国4月份新车价格飙升，这表明特朗普的汽车关税措施正在影响整个汽车市场。知名汽车 数据机构Cox Automotive发布的"凯利蓝皮书"显示，扣除折扣和促销后，消费者支付的平均价格较3 ...

挪威央行：委员会特别注意到贸易壁垒可能会把利率前景拉向不同的方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller did not comment on interest rate outlook or economic conditions [1] Summary by Categories - Interest Rate Outlook - No comments were made regarding the future of interest rates [1] - Economic Conditions - Waller refrained from discussing the current state of the economy [1]