炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：北京商报 距离2026年不足半月，银行"开门红"战役已全面打响。12月18日，北京商报记者注意到，在社交平台 上，"3年定期存款1.9%，20万元起""存款就送礼品，想要的抓紧私我""'开门红'任务已下达，礼品备好 等您来"等此类宣传语频繁出现，利率和礼赠卖点成为银行人揽储的主要战术。在这场年末冲刺中，城 商行、农商行等地方银行全力冲锋、高频造势，国有大行则普遍低调内敛，鲜有主动营销，"开门红"揽 储的温差已然显现。 在社交平台上，不少银行客户经理也晒出清晰的积分换礼规则，米面油、品牌小家电等福利一应俱全， 且明确标注"存款金额越高，礼品等级越优"的规则，以此刺激客户提升存款额度。打开一家城商行客户 经理的朋友圈，日均3条以上的存款产品推广信息密集发布，细化到每档位的积分换礼情况，并搭配清 晰图文与私信预约链接，抢抓每一位潜在客户的紧迫感凸显。 考核机制亦高度绑定存款业绩，北京商报记者了解到，有地方银行网点明确要求客户经理完成存款基础 目标，若未完成，绩效系数将下调0.2；超额完成部分则可计提奖金。不过，如果客户存款在6个月内流 ...

（原标题：2026年货币政策定调：促进物价合理回升 灵活高效降准降息） 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议明确要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 多名受访人士告诉记者，本次会议提出"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，延续了去年中央经济工作会 议的基调，表明我国在"十五五"开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量发展。 关于总量型货币政策工具，会议表述由去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具"，表明2026年降准降息仍有空间，但在中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期调节"的背景下，发力可 能会更加审慎。 会议还明确引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，这意味着相关领域的 结构性货币政策工具有望再度实现"量增价降"。 值得注意的是，本次会议对物价水平的关注程度显著提升，明确提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为 ...

来源：华夏时报 临近年终，银行业"开门红"悄然打响。 日前，记者走访北京多家银行网点了解到，为应对"开门红"，部分中小银行阶段性上调定期存款利率， 或推出颇具吸引力的礼品奖励，如有银行给出"10万一桶油或一袋米"的礼品配置，吸引储户。 "我们目前柜面3年期定存利率是1.9%，如果单笔50万元以上，可以做到1.95%。"有城商行北京某支行 客户经理向记者透露，并称这一水平"应该是目前北京这边（同类产品中）最高的了"。 "开门红"并未改变整体利率下行的大趋势。进入12月，仍有不少中小银行继续下调挂牌存款利率。业内 人士指出，"高息揽储"更多是短期营销策略，长期来看，存款利率整体仍处于下行通道。 "利率+礼品"组合揽储 "1.9%这个利率，得来咱们柜台存。"有银行客户经理对记者表示。 记者日前走访北京多家银行网点发现，不少银行线上APP显示的存款利率与线下柜面实际可享利率存在 差异。以某城商行为例，其手机银行APP上显示，北京地区3年期定期存款年利率最高为1.75%，2年期 和5年期则均为1.6%；但据该行客户经理介绍，若客户为"新资金"且到柜面办理，单笔金额20万元以 上，3年期定存利率可达1.9%。 "现在不少 ...

根据六大行官方手机银行显示，工商银行"大额存单"栏目下仅剩余1个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年、3年六个期限产品。而中国银行、建设 银行、交通银行及邮储银行的 5年期产品均已从在售列表中移除 。农业银行2018年至2025年的人民币个人大额存单产品目录中，也并未出现 过5年期大额存单产品。 各银行 存款期限结构已明显"短期化" 。 今年以来，银行业存款产品结构迎来显著调整，长期大额存单成为"离场主力"。根据公告显示，年内已有多家股份银行及城商行下架了旗下 的3-5年期的大额存单产品。这一调整背后，是银行业面临的多重经营压力与政策导向的共同作用。首要原因是净息差持续收窄的生存压力。 金融监管总局数据显示，2025年三季度商业银行净息差保持在1.42%的低位水平，其中民营银行净息差环比还在持续下降。在贷款利率持续走 低的背景下，银行资产端收益不断收缩，而长期大额存单作为高成本负债，其利息支出与贷款收益的利差已逼近盈亏线。 此外，随着净息差承压态势仍将持续，利率市场化改革不断深化，未来将有更多银行跟进调整长期限存款产品， 短期化、低利率、严管控将 成为存款市场的常态。 编辑丨兰银帆 审核丨许晨辉 往期回顾 Revi ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, unchanged for six months since a 10 basis points cut in May [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to strong macroeconomic performance driven by unexpected export growth and rapid development in new productivity sectors, leading to reduced demand for counter-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, adapting to changes in the economic and financial landscape [2][3] - The central bank plans to deepen interest rate marketization reforms to enhance the quality of LPR quotes, ensuring they accurately reflect market rates and encouraging financial institutions to adhere to risk pricing principles [3] - The monetary policy will focus on achieving stable growth while optimizing the structure, with expectations for more proactive measures to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [3]

Group 1: Central Bank Policy Rates and Market Rates - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates focuses on two dimensions: OMO leading to funding rates and short-term government bond rates, and OMO influencing funding rates, short-term rates, and ten-year government bond yields. Since May, the DR001 funding rate has returned to fluctuate near the policy rate, indicating a stable funding environment ahead [1][17][19] - The MLF policy rate's role has been gradually diminished, with OMO rate plus an average of 70 basis points becoming the new anchor for ten-year government bond yields. Currently, the spread between ten-year government bonds and OMO is stable at around 40 basis points, which is slightly low compared to historical levels [1][19][20] Group 2: Commercial Banks' Asset and Liability Rates - The efficiency of the transmission of policy rates to deposit and loan rates has varied, leading to a continuous compression of banks' net interest margins. The central bank is enhancing the linkage between asset and liability rates to stabilize bank margins, with expectations that the pressure on net interest margins will ease in the future [2][20][26] - The decline in deposit rates has been slower compared to loan rates, with the average loan rate dropping by 2.38 percentage points since August 2019, while the average deposit rate has only decreased by 0.25 percentage points for demand deposits [2][20][21] Group 3: Relationships Among Different Asset Yields - There exists a relative relationship among various asset yields, such as deposit rates, loan rates, bond yields, and stock dividend yields. The average personal housing loan interest rate is currently around 3.1%, while the adjusted yield on 30-year government bonds is higher by approximately 20 basis points, indicating a favorable comparison for bonds over loans [3][28][29] - The downward adjustment of loan rates may face constraints due to the existing yield relationships, as the loan rates have remained relatively stable despite reductions in LPR and deposit rates [3][29] Group 4: Term and Risk Rate Relationships - The current level of term spreads is low, with expectations that the spreads will widen due to regulatory attitudes, stable funding conditions, and nominal GDP recovery. The credit spreads for short-term bonds are at historical lows, while mid to long-term bonds show slightly better value but with higher volatility [4][41][42] - The pricing of different risk rates is fundamentally a matter of credit spreads, which are influenced by liquidity premiums and credit risk premiums. The current credit spreads for various ratings are at low levels, indicating potential opportunities for investment [4][44][45] Group 5: Implications for Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is crucial for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation. The recent emphasis on these relationships may lead to a more systematic and refined approach to monitoring and managing market rates [10][59] - The dynamics of the bond market are currently influenced by concerns over potential fund redemptions and the impact of new public offering regulations, which may limit the market's ability to respond positively to favorable economic indicators [9][60][61]

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy report maintains a "moderately accommodative" stance, addressing current economic challenges while balancing short-term growth and long-term quality development[1] - The report emphasizes "keeping social financing conditions relatively loose" and "strengthening monetary policy execution and transmission," indicating a shift from "incremental acceleration" to "stock quality improvement" in monetary policy focus[1] Financial Indicators - As of September, the total social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 8.4%, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan, aligning with economic growth and price targets[2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans fell to 3.24% in Q3, with corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by 37 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively, easing the financing burden on market entities[2] Economic Context - GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, with overall employment stability, although challenges remain in manufacturing and export growth[2] - Core inflation is stabilizing, with expectations for gradual price recovery as consumption policies take effect[2] Policy Insights - The report includes four sections, with the first highlighting that the RMB loan balance is 270 trillion yuan and social financing stock is 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[2] - The second section clarifies the relationship between base money and broader money supply, suggesting a shift from "quantity expansion" to "interest rate transmission" in monetary policy[4] Interest Rate Dynamics - The fourth section discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation, addressing recent imbalances caused by market behaviors[4] - The central bank is implementing measures to correct interest rate imbalances, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the real economy[4]

Group 1: Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened mixed, with energy products leading the gains, as crude oil rose by 2.11% [1] - Most base metals increased, with Shanghai tin up by 1.42%, while precious metals also saw gains, with Shanghai silver rising by 0.96% [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with live pigs down by 0.93%, and chemical products also saw a downward trend, with ethylene glycol falling by 0.89% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day, supported by stronger Chicago soybean oil, but faced pressure from weather concerns and weak November export data [2] - The benchmark January palm oil contract closed up by 27 Malaysian Ringgit, or 0.66%, at 4,139 Malaysian Ringgit per ton [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - Current demand for rubber is at its best level post-pandemic, with strong performance in heavy truck data and high operating rates in downstream tire factories [3] - There is a willingness among downstream tire manufacturers to accept orders, but supply remains the core factor, with future production increases dependent on weather conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with continued inventory reduction during the peak season [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains recognized, and there is still upward momentum, although spot prices are lagging, indicating potential profit-taking risks [4] Group 5: Market Events and Trends - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [5] - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may impact palm oil exports and tighten global supply, potentially leading to a spike in palm oil prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a balanced monetary policy that supports economic growth while managing risks, with a focus on both short-term and long-term objectives [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC's report outlines a strategy to balance short-term and long-term goals, stabilize growth while preventing risks, and ensure the health of the banking system [1][4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination to achieve a synergistic effect in supporting growth and structural adjustments [5]. Economic Indicators - As of September 2025, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [3]. - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Loan Rate and Risk Pricing - The PBOC stresses that corporate financing rates should not fall below government bond yields, as this contradicts risk pricing principles and is unsustainable [7][10]. - The report indicates that the PBOC has been urging banks not to issue loans with post-tax rates lower than the yields of government bonds of the same maturity [9][10]. Financial Market Dynamics - The report discusses the need to address the misalignment of interest rates in the financial market, which has been influenced by factors such as liquidity conditions and competitive pressures among banks [8]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by ensuring a reasonable relationship between various interest rates, thereby improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need to balance short-term and long-term goals, support economic growth while managing risks, and ensure internal and external equilibrium [2]. - The central bank aims to achieve a 5% economic growth target for the year through coordinated macro policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies [2]. - The report stresses the importance of monitoring liquidity supply and demand in the banking system and financial markets, while ensuring ample liquidity through various monetary policy tools [2]. Financial Indicators - The report suggests a shift in focus from traditional loan metrics to social financing scale due to changes in financing structure and economic transformation [3]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Management - The report calls for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy [4]. - It emphasizes the need for a sound market-based interest rate formation mechanism and the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance monetary policy effectiveness [4][5]. Financial Tools and Support - The report outlines the development of five key financial areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to support national strategies and address weak links in economic development [6]. - As of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting these areas was 3.9 trillion yuan, with loan growth rates in these sectors exceeding 10% [7]. Risk Management - The report emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and a mechanism for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [7][8]. - It highlights the need for enhanced supervision of systemically important financial institutions and the expansion of additional regulatory coverage to non-bank sectors [8].