证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比：债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后， 一些银行通过减少加点幅度，仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23, with a net injection of 3750 billion yuan after accounting for 1250 billion yuan maturing this month [1] - This marks the third consecutive month of increased MLF operations, with net injections of 630 billion yuan in March and 5000 billion yuan in April [1] - The significant net injection in May is part of a broader strategy to support the real economy amid increased external volatility and includes measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is accelerating interest rate marketization reforms, having adjusted the MLF bidding model to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bids, moving away from a unified bidding rate [2] - The recent changes in the MLF bidding mechanism allow institutions to better prepare for liquidity arrangements and enhance their market-based pricing capabilities [2] - As the channels for basic currency injection diversify, the reliance on MLF for monetary policy operations is gradually decreasing [2]

对于未来如何持续深化金融体制改革，《报告》提出了五个方面的建议。 21世纪经济报道记者 周妙妙 深圳报道 5月18日，中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰在2025清华五道口全球金融论坛发布《中国金融政策报 告2025》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》由清华大学五道口金融学院与中国社会科学院金融政策研究 中心联合组织编写，主题为"持续深化金融体制改革 加快建设中国特色现代金融体系"。 "我国金融系统在内外部压力中要加快改革步伐，继续提升体系韧性。"丁志杰表示。《报告》详细总结 了2024年国内金融调控、金融市场、金融机构、金融监管、金融产品与服务、金融基础设施等金融体系 六大核心组成部分的建设情况，并从改革、监管、开放等方面对未来的金融体制改革做出展望。 三是筑牢金融稳定保障，加强监管。推动监管兜底机制与早期纠偏制度的建设，强化宏微观审慎协同， 依法将所有金融活动纳入监管，健全中央和地方监管责任划分。聚焦中小银行改革和风险处置，提升治 理能力和资本补充机制。 四是恪守金融本源，提升金融的服务质效。金融机构需要聚焦服务实体经济主责主业，提升资源配置效 率和专业能力，加强内部治理、风控与审计。防止脱实向虚，引导金融科技 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the future financial system reforms in China, focusing on optimizing financial resource allocation, enhancing the central bank system, ensuring financial stability, improving financial service quality, and promoting high-level financial openness [2][3][4] Group 2 - The importance of maintaining a stable financial environment is highlighted, with a call to improve multi-level capital markets and support long-term funding for strategic emerging industries and technological innovation [2] - The need for deepening interest rate marketization reform and enhancing the effectiveness of policy interest rates is discussed, aiming to optimize the design of structural monetary policy tools [3] - Strengthening regulatory frameworks and enhancing governance capabilities of small and medium-sized banks are emphasized to ensure financial stability [3] - Financial institutions are urged to focus on serving the real economy and improving resource allocation efficiency while preventing excessive speculation [3] - The strategic significance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and developing offshore Renminbi products is noted, alongside the necessity for a robust international financial center [4]

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises is a key focus, with the goal of achieving "maintaining volume, improving quality, stabilizing prices, and optimizing structure" by 2025 to support economic recovery [1] Financing Costs - Comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises include both interest and non-interest costs, with market interest rates (LPR) significantly declining, leading to historically low average loan rates [1] - As of March, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, both down by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the average interest rate for newly issued loans was approximately 3.4%, down about 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises was 4.03% in the first two months of this year, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from 2024, and a cumulative decline of 3.9 percentage points since 2018 [1] Non-Interest Costs - Despite low loan interest rates, enterprises still perceive financing costs as high due to elevated non-interest costs, which include various fees that are often opaque and layered [2] - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes the need to stabilize credit service prices and improve transparency in loan pricing to help reduce overall financing costs [2] Transparency Initiatives - Starting from September 2024, a pilot program was launched in five provinces to clarify the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, allowing them to see all interest and non-interest costs in a standardized format [2] - By the end of March 2025, the pilot regions had completed the disclosure of comprehensive financing costs for 270,000 loans totaling 1.53 trillion yuan [2] Collaborative Efforts - Banks are encouraged to adopt a more reasonable approach to credit pricing, utilizing technology to enhance efficiency and reduce operational costs while eliminating barriers to financing for small and micro enterprises [3] - Collaboration with local governments and financial institutions is essential to collectively reduce financing burdens on enterprises [4] - Enterprises are also urged to improve their creditworthiness and internal management to facilitate lower financing costs [4]

"降准降息落地！2.5%，进入倒计时！""警惕！保险市场或现重大调整"……5月12日，北京商报记者注意到，保险业预定利率或再度调降这一"情绪"正在保 险业中蔓延。根据中国人民银行日前更新的常备借贷便利利率表，将各期限常备借贷便利利率下调10个基点，自2025年5月8日起执行。此次降息与5月15日 执行的0.5个百分点全面降准形成政策组合拳。 今年4月21日，中国保险行业协会（以下简称"保险业协会"）组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例会。保险业专家认 为，当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%。 据了解，这是今年初监管推出"预定利率挂钩市场利率"机制后，首次公布研究值。今年初，《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的 通知》重磅发布。其中提到，要建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制，引导公司强化资产负债联动，科学审慎定价。 进一步来看，最新普通型人身险预定利率研究值2.13%，已较前值下降21个基点。根据触发条件，当保险公司在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续 2个季度比预定利率研究值高25个基点及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值，并在2 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is accelerating interest rate marketization reforms, with recent adjustments to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and the establishment of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as a policy rate [2][3] - The PBOC aims to create a clearer interest rate adjustment signal, with a more complete interest rate system that effectively transmits from short-term to long-term rates [2][3] Group 2: Financing Costs and Corporate Loans - As of March, the average weighted interest rate for corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.5 percentage points, remaining at historical lows [4] - The PBOC has initiated measures to clarify comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, improving transparency and helping to reduce non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees [4] Group 3: Bond Market and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need for improved institutional frameworks to mitigate interest rate risks in the bond market, which has seen significant growth but also volatility [5][6] - Experts suggest that while long-term government bonds carry no credit risk, they are still subject to interest rate risks, necessitating better risk management practices among financial institutions [5][6]

日前，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》(以下简称《报 告》)提出，今年以来，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化逆周期调节，为经济持续回升向好创造了 适宜的货币金融环境。 市场人士表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进 一步优化，持续多年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 《报告》明确，下阶段，央行将平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支持实体 经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，增强宏观政策协调 配合，扩大国内需求，稳定预期、激发活力，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 灵活把握政策 实施力度和节奏 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，《报告》强调"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"。同时还明确，"落实好 中央政治局会议精神，积极落地5月推出的一揽子金融政策"。 在5月7日国新办举行新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布了三大类共10项金融政策，包括降准、降息、 创设并优化结构性货币政策工具、推出支持科技创新的新政策工具等。 业内专家表示，这一揽子政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Loan Clarity Paper" enhances transparency in financing costs for enterprises, addressing discrepancies in perceptions of financing costs between banks and businesses [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financing Cost Transparency - The "Loan Clarity Paper" outlines the interest and non-interest costs that enterprises must bear, detailing the charging entities, payment methods, and cycles, thereby reducing information asymmetry [1][4]. - As of March 2025, the average weighted interest rate for corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.5 percentage points, remaining at historical lows [1]. Pilot Implementation - Since September 2024, the central bank has piloted the initiative in five provinces, ensuring that various financing costs are uniformly disclosed to protect financial consumers' right to know and to promote lower financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. Cost Breakdown Example - An example illustrates that a small enterprise with a loan of 9 million yuan had a comprehensive financing cost of 5.16%, with the bank loan interest rate at 3.5%, a guarantee fee of 1.5%, and an emergency loan fee of 0.16%, indicating that non-interest costs accounted for 32% of the total financing cost [4][5]. Impact on Financing Costs - The initiative has enabled enterprises to better understand their financing costs and identify potential savings through policy benefits or negotiation, exemplified by a case where a company reduced its financing cost by over 60% by switching loan products [5]. Systemic Efforts for Cost Reduction - Experts emphasize that while interest costs are low, reducing overall financing costs requires addressing non-interest costs such as collateral fees and intermediary service fees, necessitating collaboration among financial institutions, local governments, and enterprises [6][8]. Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The central bank has been advancing interest rate marketization reforms, with recent adjustments to the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) and the establishment of a clearer interest rate transmission mechanism, which is crucial for maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth [8][9]. Future Directions - The report indicates that the central bank will continue to refine its monetary policy tools to ensure adequate liquidity and support high-quality economic development, with a focus on maintaining a balanced and effective interest rate system [9].

报告显示，人民银行继续坚持支持性的政策立场，实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活开展公开市场操作， 综合运用各类总量和结构性政策工具，保持流动性充裕，人民币汇率在复杂形势下保持基本稳定，金融 市场运行整体平稳。 适度宽松的货币政策将持续发力 市场人士表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进 一步优化，持续多年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 报告显示，新的政策信号不断释放，一是进一步加大支持实体经济力度，二是支持扩大消费，三是有力 应对外部冲击。 【导读】遭受外部冲击关键时点，货币政策积极作为 专家对此表示，美国关税政策对全球经济金融秩序带来明显冲击，报告多次提及"关税政策"，显示政策 层面对此高度关注，宏观政策已在积极应对、重点发力，稳定外贸也将成为未来政策支持的一个重要方 向。 另一方面，在外需对经济增长的支撑作用趋弱的背景下，提振消费成为当前扩内需、稳增长的关键点。 报告对此进行了专题论述，服务消费与养老再贷款也于近日正式推出。市场预计，未来服务领域的消费 潜力有望进一步激发。 中国基金报记者 李树超 张玲 5月9日，央行官网发布的2 ...