| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 报告名称 | 评级变动 | 机构 | 近一月个 股研报数 | 行业 | 日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603259 | 药明康德 | 公司信息更新报告:2025H1业绩超预期,TIDES 业务强劲增长 | 维持 | 开源证券 | 7 | 医疗服务 | 7月31日 | | 601168 | 西部矿业 | 公司事件点评报告:半年度业绩同比增长,主要 金属米选冶指标向好 | 维持 | 华鑫证券 | র্ব | 有色金属 | 7月31日 | | 920005 | 鼎佳精密 | 鼎佳精密新股报告:专注消费电子模切,拓品提 效助力成长 | | 中国银河 | র্ব | 消费电子 | 7月31日 | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 盈利能力提升,海外增长成亮点 | 维持 | 中国银河 | 3 | 申 海 | 7月31日 | | 002850 | 科达利 | 锂电结构件龙头,拓展人形机器人第二曲线 | 首次 | 东兴证券 | 3 | 电池 | 7月31日 | | 688266 | 泽瑞制药 | 兼具销售放量 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Analyst 50 Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The portfolio is designed to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging the superior performance of newly recommended stocks and the effectiveness of the earnings surprise factor in stock selection[25][27][34] **Construction Process**: 1. Select newly recommended stocks from the monthly broker top 10 stock pool based on whether they are repeated from the previous month[25] 2. Calculate the earnings surprise factor (SUE) for each stock in the newly recommended stock pool, and select the top 50 stocks based on SUE values. Initial weights are assigned based on the number of broker recommendations[25] 3. Adjust the portfolio's industry weights proportionally to match the latest CSI 500 index industry weight distribution. Within each industry, stock weights are adjusted proportionally to finalize the Analyst 50 Portfolio[25] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The portfolio dynamically captures market trends and high-volatility stocks, demonstrating strong adaptability and aggressiveness[34] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Earnings Surprise (SUE) **Construction Idea**: Measure the degree to which actual financial report values exceed analyst forecast values to identify stocks with potential for outperformance[22][23] **Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly forecast and actual values to calculate the SUE factor[26] 2. Integrate earnings previews, quick reports, and regular reports, and forward-fill factor values during financial report gaps[23] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong differentiation in stock performance, especially in newly recommended stocks, where the information absorption is slower compared to repeated stocks[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Analyst 50 Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 14.9% - Annualized excess return over CSI 500: 15.6% - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58[27][29][20] Factor Backtesting Results - **Earnings Surprise (SUE)**: - Newly recommended stocks: - Annualized return: 14.1% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58 - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Repeated stocks: - Annualized return: 8.8% - Annualized volatility: 23.3% - Sharpe ratio: 0.38 - Maximum drawdown: 45.0%[20][19][23]

Group 1 - The recent surge in Hong Kong IPOs has led domestic securities firms to accelerate their efforts to serve cross-border financing needs, marking a shift from a previously foreign-dominated landscape [1] - Over 200 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have made it to the July "golden stock" list released by brokers, with notable mentions including Kaiying Network and Zijin Mining [1] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in July, with a focus on high-growth sectors, while the Hong Kong market may also show similar trends [1] Group 2 - On July 1, the A-share market saw active trading in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and banking, with several stocks reaching historical highs [2] - The upcoming mid-year report season is expected to drive upward momentum in the A-share market, with potential performance improvements in technology, consumer, and midstream manufacturing sectors [2] Group 3 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including 16 specific initiatives [3] - These measures aim to enhance support for innovative drug research and development, clinical application, and multi-payment capabilities [3] Group 4 - Wuhan Heyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the IPO review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking the first approval under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4] - This approval reflects a policy direction that emphasizes support for high-quality technology enterprises and enhances the adaptability of the listing system [4] Group 5 - As of June 30, a total of 150 companies were newly accepted for IPOs across major exchanges, marking a peak in acceptance rates for the year [5] - The increase in accepted IPOs is attributed to periodic financial data updates and the continuous improvement of the registration system [5] Group 6 - The first half of the year saw a significant increase in the performance of listed securities firms, with expectations of double-digit growth year-on-year [6] - The introduction of new regulations for distributed photovoltaic power generation has led to a surge in installations, with nearly 200 GW added in the first five months [6] Group 7 - Since the introduction of the "Guidelines for Market Value Management," 644 listed companies have announced market value management systems or valuation enhancement plans, with a significant portion being state-owned enterprises [7] - Public funds have seen a substantial increase in dividend distributions, with a total of 1,275.11 billion yuan distributed in the first half of the year, reflecting a 37.53% year-on-year growth [7] Group 8 - The overall performance of the stock market in the first half of the year has improved, leading to increased investment returns for equity funds, which has facilitated higher dividend payouts [8] - Regulatory bodies are encouraging funds to enhance dividend frequency and amounts to improve investor satisfaction [8] Group 9 - The A-share market has shown a trend of upward fluctuations, with a total market capitalization reaching 90.66 trillion yuan by June 30 [9] - Experts anticipate that policies aimed at technological innovation and improving living standards will inject new momentum into economic growth in the second half of the year [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and recommendations of stocks by securities firms, with a focus on the "golden stocks" for July and the significant gains observed in June [1][2][3][4][5] - In June, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points, with 167 out of 272 recommended stocks rising, and 66 stocks gaining over 10%, while 27 stocks saw gains exceeding 20% [2][3] - The top-performing stock in June was Giant Network, which rose by 63.09%, followed by Shenghong Technology with a 55.39% increase [2][3] Group 2 - The financial sector showed strong performance, with 19 recommended stocks, of which only one experienced a slight decline, indicating a concentration in this industry [3][4] - The "golden stock combination index" reflects the research capabilities of securities firms, with 27 indices rising in June; the top performer was the Guoyuan Securities Golden Stock Index, which increased by 19.6% [3] - For July, 232 stocks were recommended, with 45 stocks receiving endorsements from multiple firms, indicating a shift towards growth styles in stock selection [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts predict a bullish trend for the A-share market in July, with expectations of index breakthroughs and a focus on technology and non-bank sectors [5] - The brokerage sector is particularly favored, with analysts noting that the index has recovered nearly 40% of its decline since November of the previous year, suggesting further upward potential [5]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]

- The quant report highlights that the factors "single-quarter revenue growth," "SUR," and "analyst net upgrade" performed well in the past month, while "EPTTM," "volatility," and "stripped limit-up momentum" performed poorly[3][28] - For the year to date, the factors "total market capitalization," "SUE," and "SUR" have shown strong performance, whereas "expected dividend yield," "volatility," and "EPTTM" have underperformed[3][28] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 5.34% for the month (20250603-20250630) and an excess return of 1.00% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - Year-to-date (20250102-20250630), the "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 10.59% and an excess return of 2.73% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" ranked in the 28.16th percentile among active equity funds for the year to date (977/3469)[5][43] - The portfolio's annualized return from 2018 to 2025 was 19.34%, with an annualized excess return of 14.38% relative to the mixed equity fund index[45] - The portfolio consistently ranked in the top 30% of active equity funds each year from 2018 to 2025[45]

2025 年 07 月 01 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 券商金股解析月报（2025 年 7 月） 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 ——金融工程定期 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8. ...

Core Insights - Nearly 90% of brokerage gold stock portfolios achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, with Northeast Securities leading at a 45.45% return [2][6] - The July gold stock list shows a strong representation from the electronics, pharmaceutical, and machinery sectors, with significant contributions from power equipment and non-bank financials [3][9] - Brokerages are optimistic about the market's potential to break through previous highs, particularly focusing on sectors like technology and brokerage firms for investment [4][12] Performance Summary - In June, the top-performing gold stock was Giant Network (002558.SZ) with a 63.09% monthly increase, driven by strong data from its new game [5] - Other notable performers included Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) with a 55.39% increase and Inner Mongolia First Machinery (600967.SH) with a 54.80% increase [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.76% in the first half of the year, while the North Star 50 Index surged nearly 40% [6] Brokerage Rankings - Northeast Securities topped the gold stock portfolio rankings with a 45.45% return, followed by Dongxing Securities at 37% and Huaxi Securities at 29.25% [6] - Five brokerages reported negative returns for their gold stock portfolios, including Changcheng Securities and Zhongyin Securities [7] Sector Focus - The latest gold stock recommendations highlight a concentration in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with multiple brokerages recommending stocks like Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Zhongxin Securities (600030.SH) [9][10] - Other stocks receiving multiple recommendations include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), noted for its low costs and profitability in the slaughtering business [11] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to show resilience in July, with potential breakthroughs depending on structural policy and market conditions [14][15] - The consensus among brokerages is that the Shanghai Composite Index has a significant chance of surpassing last year's highs, with a focus on technology and brokerage sectors for investment opportunities [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses potential investment opportunities in June, focusing on the performance of brokerage "gold stocks" across various industries, valuations, earnings, and institutional holdings, providing insights for investors [1]. Group 1: Performance of Gold Stocks - In May, 31 brokerage gold stock combinations achieved positive returns, with approximately two-thirds of them gaining, led by Guoyuan Securities with over 6% monthly return, primarily due to the strong performance of stocks like Kexing Pharmaceutical and Xinyisheng [2]. - The top ten performing gold stocks in May were dominated by the biopharmaceutical sector, with stocks like Yaoshibang and Kexing Pharmaceutical seeing significant gains of 52% and over 40%, respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Market Outlook for June - Analysts from Zhongtai Securities believe the market has a solid bottom, with optimistic factors accumulating, while China’s stable economy and policy expectations may continue to favor Chinese assets [2]. - China Galaxy Securities anticipates that multiple factors will enhance market risk appetite, although short-term disturbances may increase market volatility [2]. Group 3: Industry Focus - The most recommended sectors for June include biopharmaceuticals, electronics, and machinery, with 31, 27, and 22 gold stocks respectively, indicating a rising interest in the biopharmaceutical sector [6][8]. - The biopharmaceutical industry is noted to be undervalued despite its strong performance in May, with many institutions believing it still has room for growth [6][7]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - Among the 296 gold stocks, the top three with increased institutional holdings are Xintian Green Energy, Yongxing Special Materials, and Xiangxia Precision, indicating strong institutional interest [17]. - Xintian Green Energy has a high institutional holding ratio of 88.84%, reflecting significant confidence from institutional investors [17]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - Out of the 296 gold stocks, 20 are considered undervalued, with three from the biopharmaceutical sector, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these stocks [14][15]. - Huadong Medicine is highlighted as a leading undervalued stock with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has gained significant attention this year, with notable stocks such as Pop Mart, Mixue Ice Cream, and Laopu Gold reaching new highs as of June 4 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock prices of Pop Mart, Mixue Ice Cream, and Laopu Gold have all surged, achieving record highs in 2023 [1] - Tencent Holdings and Smoore International are among the popular Hong Kong stocks recommended by multiple brokerages [2][3] Group 2: Broker Recommendations - The number of Hong Kong stocks included in the broker's "golden stock" combinations has significantly increased compared to previous periods [3] - Tencent Holdings received recommendations from four brokerages: Huaxi Securities, Southwest Securities, Yongxing Securities, and Tianfeng Securities [3] - Xiaomi Group-W and Smoore International also received multiple recommendations from various brokerages [3][4] Group 3: Industry Recommendations - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has reclaimed the top position in industry recommendation rankings after three years, with a recommendation rate of 10.2% [5] - The electronics and food and beverage sectors follow in second and third place, with recommendation rates of 9.3% and 6.58%, respectively [5] Group 4: Broker Performance - In May, 31 out of 46 brokerages reported positive returns from their golden stock combinations, with Guoyuan Securities leading with a monthly return of over 6% [6][7] - The top three performing brokerages in terms of golden stock returns for May were Guoyuan Securities, Caitong Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - The market outlook for June suggests a focus on large-cap growth stocks, with expectations of continued improvement in returns and win rates [7] - Historical trends indicate that large-cap growth stocks tend to outperform in June, while sectors like household appliances and power equipment remain undervalued [7]