黄金快评：情绪推高后的脆弱行情 技术面：关键关口成为多空分水岭 昨天的走势是典型的"低位震荡—多头爆发—高位拉锯"。 支撑位：3460→ 3456-3450 → 3438-3430 → 极端3415-3400。 9月1日（周一），受美国市场假期影响，成交量偏低。但意外的是，黄金却大幅波动，从低点3437 一路冲到3489，最后收在3476。推动这波行情的，并不 是新的基本面，而是机构资金的控盘操作。简单来说，就是借助低流动性阶段，集中砸盘拉涨，来收割前期的卖盘力量。 消息面：情绪炒作大于避险需求 风险在于，随着关键数据临近，市场情绪会越来越敏感，很容易走极端。再加上机构节奏难以捉摸，常规逻辑可能失效。特别需要警惕的是"买预期、卖事 实"的老套路：若降息真的落地，黄金反而可能借机回调。 压力位：3480-3483→ 3489 → 3493-3496 → 心理关口3500（突破可能冲击3520）。 市场当前最关注的，还是本周的非农数据和美联储利率纪要。眼下，大家普遍在押注"9月降息"，部分机构顺势推波助澜，放大多头情绪。黄金因此被快速 推升到3489，但这背后更多是"预期炒作"，而不是避险资金的大规模涌入。 思路 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - U.S. stock market may decline if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1] - Investors are optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts to support a weak labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens, leading to inflows into various risk assets [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached a historical peak, driven by tech giants, despite mixed inflation data affecting rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Record inflows into cash, stock, and bond funds were reported, with cash funds attracting $33 billion, stock funds $26.4 billion, and bond funds $25.9 billion [2] - Cryptocurrency and gold also saw significant inflows, with $4.5 billion and $2.6 billion respectively [2] - Global stock funds attracted over $26 billion in a week, with a total inflow of $576 billion this year, potentially marking the third-highest inflow year [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The current rate cut cycle is the fastest since 2020, with 88 cuts made by global central banks this year [2] - Discussions around the Fed's independence and inflation targets suggest a weakening dollar, which may benefit gold, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets [2] Group 4: Energy Market Insights - Oil and gas prices have dropped by 41% since March, reflecting geopolitical tensions [3] - Trump's geopolitical stance aims to lower U.S. energy costs, which may contribute to a bearish energy market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]

Group 1 - Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially materialized, with the S&P 500 index surging 5% following the announcement of a trade agreement framework [1] - Hartnett identifies the best and worst performing assets for 2025, with oil expected to decline by 12% and gold projected to rise by 21% [1] - Key levels to watch include a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, a 100-point level on the dollar index, and a 5000-point level on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [1] Group 2 - A potential combination of rising bond yields and a declining dollar could lead to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with 5% yield seen as a critical threshold [2] - Emerging market stocks are predicted to be the core engine of a new bull market, supported by a weaker dollar, peaked bond yields, and a boost from the Chinese economy [2] - The "Riyadh Agreement" driven by Trump is key to lowering oil prices, facilitating increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia in exchange for sanctions relief [2] Group 3 - Hartnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy, with a preference for a scenario of declining yields and deflation by 2025 [3] - The removal of the AAA rating by Moody's has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skepticism of Michael Hartnett, a prominent strategist at Bank of America, regarding the sustainability of the stock market rebound despite ongoing trade negotiations. He emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors and potential risks associated with asset price de-leveraging [1][2][4]. Group 1: Key Trading Strategies - Hartnett suggests three key trading strategies: buying the expectation and selling the fact post-trade agreement, maintaining a short position on the dollar until the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates, and going long on 5-year U.S. Treasuries until the Republican budget confirms future tax cuts/extensions [2][7]. - He believes that the market's upward momentum will likely be driven by three macro factors: the China deal, global rate cuts, and strong consumer demand [3][8]. Group 2: Market Risks - The primary risk for a bear market stems from the de-leveraging effect on asset prices, particularly if the combination of Trump and Powell leads to a loss of control over long-term interest rates. This could result in rising rates and increased pressure on debt chains [4][9]. - Hartnett warns that if investors stop buying long-term Treasuries, it could lead to a significant market correction, especially given that global debt reached a record high of $324 trillion in the first quarter of this year [4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Outlook - Hartnett's long-term investment outlook includes a preference for bonds over stocks, international stocks over U.S. stocks, and gold over the dollar, based on the conflict between excessive positioning in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and new populist policies [6]. - He anticipates a structural shift in asset allocation from the traditional 60/40 stock-bond mix to a more diversified approach involving cash, gold, stocks, and bonds [10][17]. Group 4: Economic and Political Context - The article highlights that the 2020s are witnessing a macro shift characterized by the end of excessive monetary and fiscal expansion, a reversal of globalization, and rising populist pressures, which could impact capital and labor dynamics [11]. - Historical parallels are drawn to significant economic events, suggesting that the current environment may lead to similar structural transformations [12]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence Outlook - Despite a generally cold economic environment, Hartnett remains optimistic about artificial intelligence, viewing it as a transformative force that could support earnings through productivity gains [15]. - However, he notes potential risks associated with AI, including the possibility of increased unemployment or pressure for wealth taxes if productivity gains do not translate into job security [16].

Market Performance - On May 9, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.29% and a weekly decline of 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.07% with a weekly decline of 0.47%, and the Nasdaq flat with a weekly decline of 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel up 2%, while Nvidia, Netflix, Google, and Meta experienced slight declines [2] Investment Trends - According to Bank of America analysts, the rebound in the US stock market may have ended, as investors are in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, making further increases unlikely [5] - In the past four weeks, US stock markets saw redemptions totaling $24.8 billion, the largest in two years [5] Notable Stock Movements - Lyft surged over 28%, marking its best single-day performance since February 2024, while Insulet Corp. rose nearly 21%, its best performance since November 2022 [2] - Tesla's stock increased by 4.72%, closing at $298.26, with a market capitalization of $960.68 billion, adding $43.3 billion in value overnight [2] Currency and Commodity Updates - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2399, appreciating by 51 points from the previous trading day [12] - Gold prices rose, with spot gold up 0.60% to $3,325.49 per ounce, and New York gold up 0.77% to $3,331.46 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures settled up over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.11 to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up $1.07 to $63.91 per barrel, both showing weekly gains of over 4% [15] Trade Agreements - On May 8, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the UK, partially retracting tariffs in specific sectors and expanding market access for certain products [17] - The agreement includes a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [17] - Trump indicated that if the trade agreement is combined with tax cuts, it could be a good time to invest in stocks [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rally in U.S. stocks may be nearing its end, as the market transitions into a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, despite a strong reaction to trade easing announcements [1] - Since President Trump announced a pause on certain tariffs on April 9, the S&P 500 index has surged by 14%, indicating a strong market response to trade easing, yet it remains down 3.7% year-to-date, underperforming compared to international peers [1] - The recent moderate stance of the U.S. on global trade may have already been fully priced in by the market, suggesting limited further upside potential [1] Group 2 - Hartnett's views are supported by significant capital outflows, with approximately $24.8 billion withdrawn from the U.S. stock market over the past four weeks, marking the highest redemption level in two years [2] - Hartnett advises investors to favor bonds over stocks by 2025, and prefers international stocks over U.S. stocks, indicating a shift towards more defensive and potentially upward-moving markets [2] - He notes that U.S. stocks are in the late stages of a structural bear market compared to non-U.S. markets, providing clear guidance for investors seeking to protect their assets [2]

秦氏金升：3.25黄金涨跌不延续，伦敦金行情走势分析及操作建议 周二(3月25日)美市盘中，国际黄金短线上涨，截至发稿暂报3035.81美元/盎司，涨幅0.71%，今日金价开盘于3012.82美元/盎司，最高上探3035.93美元/盎 司，最低触及3007.31美元/盎司。 在周评中，秦氏金升的分析是上方以上周回撤反弹的最低位3038为保护在32附近看延续下跌的情况，周一的走势已经验证这一预测。现在小时级盘面上来 看，昨天回撤低点在3002附近，没有下破2999上周的低点，今日早盘分析也指出这个情况，今日的走势上，低点逐步在抬升（图中红色趋势线）震荡向上， 但是上方还有3038的压制可以参考，所以只能看做一个震荡调整。 现在蓝色下降趋势线破坏，那么后市可以舍弃，目前美盘开盘，现在金价在3034附近交投，美盘主要关注3038压制情况，在没有越过此位置之前，老秦建议 还是可以执行看空的思路。下方关注红色趋势的支撑情况，也就是3013一但下破，那么下方去看3002昨天低点支撑情况。综合来讲，现在黄金的涨跌延续度 差，现在下方3000关口支撑还在，上方压制位也未有力去试探，所以秦氏金升的观点是3035附近做空看跌，下 ...