Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of decision-making in life and investment, emphasizing that good decisions can lead to better opportunities and outcomes [1][2] - It highlights the case of Bill Ackman, who made a significant profit of $3.6 billion by strategically using credit default swaps (CDS) to hedge against the risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4] - Ackman's approach involved a small investment of $26 million in CDS linked to $71 billion of corporate debt, which proved to be a successful hedge as the pandemic unfolded [4][26] Group 2 - The article introduces the concept of "black swan" events, which are rare, impactful, and often unpredictable occurrences that can reshape industries and economies [5][11] - It outlines the characteristics of black swan events, including their rarity, significant impact, post-event explanations, and the potential for preemptive measures [8][10] - The article emphasizes that black swan events are not just negative occurrences; positive black swan events can also lead to unexpected opportunities [16][40] Group 3 - Ackman's strategy during the pandemic exemplifies the "barbell strategy" or "tail risk hedging," where a small investment is made to protect against extreme outcomes while maintaining a larger portfolio [24][26] - The article suggests that successful investors like Ackman are sensitive to tail risks and can capitalize on unexpected market movements [31][32] - It concludes that while luck plays a role in investment success, skilled decision-makers are better positioned to seize opportunities when they arise [32][33]

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Group 1: Policy Signals - The April Politburo meeting emphasized "stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations" amid external risks, marking a shift towards high-quality development and proactive policy adjustments[1] - The government plans to implement flexible and unconventional policies based on changing circumstances, focusing on timely incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments[1] Group 2: Employment and Market Stability - The April 28 press conference highlighted coordinated efforts to stabilize domestic demand and employment, with initiatives like "trade-in" subsidies and support for service consumption[2] - The May 7 press conference focused on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, including measures like lowering public housing loan rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing long-term capital market participation[2] Group 3: Incremental Policies and Financial Support - The 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and preparing incremental measures, with strong export performance expected to continue into May[3] - The central bank's recent policies, including comprehensive reserve requirement cuts and structural monetary policy rate reductions, aim to lower commercial banks' funding costs and facilitate loan rate reductions[3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Revenue Trends - In Q1, broad fiscal revenue fell by 2.6% year-on-year, below the initial target of 0.2%, while fiscal expenditure increased by 5.6% due to government debt financing[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate, with new special bonds projected to grow by 36.5% compared to Q1[4] Group 5: Future Focus Areas - If tariff negotiations progress positively, future policies may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural support, emphasizing consumer relief and income growth as key drivers for consumption[5] - Service consumption recovery remains critical, with current levels at only 87.7% of historical trends, indicating significant potential for policy-driven growth[5]

Group 1: Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies include direct fiscal subsidies such as rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, and consumption vouchers, and indirect support policies like tax exemptions on vehicle purchases[1] - The first round of rural subsidies from 2009 to 2012 involved a total subsidy of 76.5 billion yuan, resulting in sales of 659.76 billion yuan, with a fiscal multiplier of 8.6[1] - The new round of consumption vouchers initiated in 2020 has effectively stimulated demand in sectors like catering and tourism[1] Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side constraints, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels[3] - Structural unemployment and damaged household balance sheets are mid-term factors limiting consumption, with housing loans accounting for 53.8% of total loans[3] - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which negatively impacts consumption willingness[4] Group 3: Future Expectations for Consumption - Future policies should focus on increasing income and reducing expenses, with an emphasis on improving the social security system and developing the service sector[5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets to restore household net wealth, which is crucial for boosting consumer confidence[6] - The 2024 policy framework emphasizes the importance of service consumption alongside traditional goods consumption, indicating a shift in focus for future consumption strategies[5]

2025 年春节过后 ， D eep S eek的横空出世引领出了 A 股市场的科技主线 ， 而后被特朗普来回横 跳的关税政策猝不及防地打乱了节奏 。 关税博弈下 ， 市场到底走到哪一步了 ？ 对此 ， 联博基金副总经理 、 投资总监朱良用 "市场湿度" 这一概念进行了回答 ： "4 月 7 日 ， 我 们的湿度计指标达到了 81%， 是一个阶段性的高点 ； 在此之后 ， 则表现出向均值回归的状态 。 " 经常看到有人用 "温度"来描述市场 ， 而鲜少有人使用 "湿度"来注解投资情绪 。 朱良表示 ， "湿度计"指标源于联博集团的 "量化基本面"研究框架 ， 衡量的是 市场波动中有多大的 比例是由贝塔来解释的 。 可以理解为投资者群体性行为给市场带来了多大的影响 ， 是投资者能够直 接体感到的市场情绪 。 朱良补充道 ， "当贝塔解释市场波动的比例很高时 ， 市场情绪大概率是极悲或极乐 。 2018 年 10 月 ， 贸易战 1 . 0 时期 ， 湿度计指标达到了 83%； 去年 ' 9 . 24 行情 '中 ， 10 月 8 日的湿度指 标达到了 87%， 都是阶段性的情绪峰值 —— 对比下来 ， 我们认为 ...