Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. The iron - water output may recover next week, and the steel cost is supported. Although the seasonal decline of building material demand exists, the manufacturing demand still provides support. Short - term exports continue to be high, and the steel price presents a volatile and moderately strong trend [7]. - The trading strategies include maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend for unilateral trading, suggesting to short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio for arbitrage, and suggesting to wait and see for options [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Current Situation**: This week, the iron - water output declined, and the five major steel products continued to reduce production, but the reduction speed slowed down. Rebar production increased while hot - rolled production decreased rapidly. The total steel inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, with the social inventory depletion faster than the factory inventory. Rebar demand improved month - on - month, but hot - rolled demand declined rapidly due to temperature and capital conditions [4][7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the iron - water output may recover as blast furnace profits have been repaired. The supply of coal mines may shrink due to environmental protection, and steel mills have restocking expectations. The cost of steel is supported. The steel price shows a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. Follow - up attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (+30), and the summary price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+40) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China was - 54.26 yuan (+3), and the valley - rate electric furnace profit was +111 yuan (+3). Long - process steel maintained a small profit [4][29]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real Estate Data**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first, second, and third - tier cities showed varying degrees of decline [31]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month [31][36]. - **Social Financing**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.87%. The new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. The government bonds and corporate bonds financing provided strong support, but the long - term investment demand of enterprises was insufficient, and the consumer and mortgage credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [35][36]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 226.55 million tons (- 2.65), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.9% (+0.4). The small - sample rebar production was 181.68 million tons (+2.90), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons (- 16.8) [4][54][60]. - **Demand**: The small - sample rebar apparent demand was 208.64 million tons (+5.55), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 298.28 million tons (- 13.69). The building material demand was affected by temperature and funds, and the manufacturing demand still had support. The export of steel products continued to be high in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.26 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 25.7 million tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.37 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.61 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 5.76 million tons [4].

固 定 收 益 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 10 证 固定收益周报 短债利率下行，超长债波动幅度较大 ――利率债周报 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 12 月 19 日 统计区间：2025 年 12 月 12 日至 2025 年 12 月 18 日 重要事件点评 金融、经济和财政数据：11 月企业和居民信贷数据依然不佳，工增、固 投和社零同比增速也有一定放缓，和 10 月数据特征相近，增值税和企业 所得税收入累计同比涨幅收窄也与 10-11 月数据降温有关。展望来看，未 来的积极因素在于政策性金融工具对信贷的撬动，以及年末财政"赶进 度"集中支出，有望为 2026 年打下良好开局。 资金价格：央行投放跨年资金 统计期内，央行超量 2000 亿元续作 6 个月买断式逆回购，并开展 1000 亿元 14 天逆回购操作呵护跨年资金面，DR014 和 R014 在 12 月 18 日分 别上行 10bp 和 6bp，DR001 和 DR007 保持平稳，同业存单收益率小幅 回落，符合年末存单收益率下行的季节性特 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the industry investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution of local governments and the implementation of central "dual" projects [2][10] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term steady growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 show a year-on-year increase of +10.39%, +15.09%, +1.51%, and a decrease of -7.80%, followed by a recovery of +3.08% in 2025 [2][10] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 728.4 billion, a decrease of -3.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.8 billion, down -5.6% [3][10] - The H-shares are significantly discounted compared to A-shares, with H-share dividend yields being more attractive. As of December 15, 2025, the A-share PE (TTM) and PB were 5.0X and 0.32X, while the H-share PE (TTM) and PB were 3.6X and 0.21X, respectively [4][10] - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the company, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 3X for each year [5][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report anticipates a stabilization of industry investment in 2026, driven by local government debt resolution and central project implementations [2][10] Company Performance - New contract signings have shown marginal improvement, with a significant backlog of 8.1 trillion RMB, ensuring long-term growth [2][10] - The company has faced revenue and profit pressures, with a total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][10] Financial Health - The balance sheet is improving, with better cash flow and a more favorable accounts receivable aging structure [3][10] - The H-shares are trading at a notable discount compared to A-shares, with higher dividend yields for H-shares [4][10] Investment Recommendation - The report provides an "Overweight" rating, with projected net profits and PE ratios for the coming years [5][10]

Consumption - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of 3%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption declined, with automotive sales down 6.6% and home appliances down 14.6% year-on-year[12] - Service consumption showed strong performance, driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with food-related items growing by 8% year-on-year[13] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 11.2% in October, worsening from a previous decline of 6.8%[22] - Real estate development investment fell by 23.2% year-on-year in October, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments also saw declines of 6.7% and 12.1%, respectively[22] - Excluding real estate, project investment showed a cumulative growth of 1.7%, indicating that real estate investment dragged down overall investment by approximately 3 percentage points[22] Trade - In October, exports fell sharply with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, a drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous value of 8.3%[37] - Exports to the U.S. improved slightly, with a year-on-year growth of -25.2%, while exports to the EU and Africa saw significant declines of 13.3% and 46.0%, respectively[38] - The electronics sector maintained high growth, with integrated circuits growing by 26.9% year-on-year, while labor-intensive products experienced significant declines[37] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth slowed down, with the PMI index showing a downward trend, indicating a potential seasonal disturbance and tariff volatility[7] - The overall industrial profit growth rate slowed, with financial costs being a significant drag on performance[7] - Despite the slowdown, major industrial indices remained in the expansion zone, reflecting overall market optimism[7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, with core CPI continuing to rise, driven by strong food prices and holiday demand[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with prices in the non-ferrous metals sector increasing significantly[7] - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline in real estate development investment of 14.7% from January to October[7]

Group 1 - The industry investment is expected to stabilize by 2026, supported by orderly debt resolution by local governments and the implementation of central "dual" projects, with certain sub-sectors likely to receive higher investment elasticity aligned with national strategies [1] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a total of 8.10 trillion yuan in hand contracts as of Q3 2025, ensuring long-term stable growth despite pressures in traditional business areas [1][2] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with operational cash flow showing a reduction in outflow by 9.26 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, and the aging structure of accounts receivable has improved significantly [2] Group 2 - The H-shares are trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares, with H-share dividend yield at 5.93%, making it more attractive for investors [2] - The company is initiating coverage with a "buy" rating, projecting net profits of 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 3.1X for 2026 [3] - The estimated market value for the company based on 2026 data is 77.9 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current market capitalization [3]

1至11月云南省规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.5% 来源：中国新闻网 中新网昆明12月17日电 (记者 韩帅南)云南省统计局、国家统计局云南调查总队17日发布今年1至11月云 南省经济运行情况。1至11月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.5%，较1至10月加快0.9个百分点。 编辑：王永乐 分三大门类看，采矿业增加值增长9.5%，制造业增长4.7%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长 2.2%。 其中，高端制造业增势较好。装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值同比分别增长17%、16.9%，高于规模 以上工业增速12.5、12.4个百分点。 云南省持续深入实施提振消费专项行动，推进各项促消费政策落实，进一步释放消费潜力和活力，消费 市场总体平稳，消费结构加快升级，市场规模不断扩大。1至11月，全省实现社会消费品零售总额 11646.20亿元，同比增长3%。 云南持续开展项目攻坚，推动储备项目加快落地，加力提速项目建设，充分挖掘存量项目投资潜力，固 定资产投资总体平稳。1至11月，全省固定资产投资同比下降4%。分产业看，第一产业投资增长2.4%， 第二产业投资下降2.5%，第三产业投资下降5.5%。 部分重点行业投 ...

省统计局、国家统计局河南调查总队昨日发布11月份全省经济运行情况。11月份，全省工业、消费 增速加快，投资平稳增长，主要经济指标增速持续高于全国平均水平且领先幅度进一步扩大，经济运行 呈现平稳向好、趋新向优、韧性增强的良好态势。 市场销售增速加快，部分升级类商品快速增长。11月全省社会消费品零售总额2691.99亿元，增长 4.4%，高于全国3.1个百分点。1~11月，全省社会消费品零售总额26415.15亿元，增长5.8%，高于全国 1.8个百分点。近七成商品零售保持增长，可穿戴智能设备、智能手机等升级类消费增速加快。11月全 省居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，高于上月0.9个百分点。 工业生产持续较快增长，重点产业链群贡献突出。11月全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.0%， 比上月加快0.1个百分点，高于全国3.2个百分点；1~11月，全省规模以上工业增加值增长8.4%，增速与 1~10月持平，高于全国2.4个百分点。重点产业链群支撑作用明显。11月份，全省规模以上工业重点产 业链群增加值增长10.5%，对全省规模以上工业增长贡献率达85.0%。 政策效应充分释放，"两重""两新"政策发力显效。工业方面，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales for November 2025, suggesting underlying economic challenges and a need for cautious optimism in investment strategies [4][5][6][7]. Industrial Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 4.9% in October. However, the month-on-month growth rate improved to +0.44%, indicating a positive trend in short-term production [5]. - Among the three major sectors, the mining industry saw an increase in year-on-year growth, while the manufacturing and utilities sectors experienced a decline [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6%, marking a widening decline. However, the month-on-month growth rate for November showed a smaller decline of -1.03% [6]. - Investment in real estate, manufacturing, and broad infrastructure remained weak, contributing to the overall decline in fixed asset investment [6]. Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month. The month-on-month growth rate was -0.42%, which was weaker than seasonal expectations [7]. - Sales growth across different types of consumer goods also showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. Bond Market Insights - Since August 2025, the yield on government bonds has shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields remaining stable and declining, while long-term yields, particularly the 30-year yield, have been on an upward trend, resulting in a steeper yield curve [8]. - The current liquidity in the market is relatively loose, and despite weak fundamentals, there is a growing optimism among investors regarding the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [8]. - In the convertible bond market, as of December 12, 2025, the performance of convertible bonds has lagged behind the equity market, with a year-to-date increase of 16.5% compared to 21.8% for the broader index. However, convertible bonds are still considered relatively high-quality assets in the long term [8].

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in demand, particularly in consumer spending, which has been significantly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies for trade-ins [2][3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for January to November 2025 is reported at 4.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with automobile sales showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.0% [3][22] - Industrial value-added growth for November 2025 is at 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating a divergence between traditional industries related to real estate and high-tech sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes a rebound in inflation, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise [3][5] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% for November, with real estate investment down 15.9% and infrastructure investment at 0.13% [3][7] - The report indicates that the overall economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3][23]