Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have drawn significant market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a trend towards convergence with the central parity rate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On August 28, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD broke through key levels of 7.15, 7.14, and 7.13, with the offshore rate (USDCNH) dipping below 7.12 [1]. - The central parity rate for USD to RMB on August 29 was reported at 7.1030, an increase of 33 basis points from the previous trading day, yet still 251 basis points lower than Bloomberg's forecast, indicating a signal for potential appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The narrowing gap between the central parity and actual trading rates suggests active management of exchange rate expectations, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [2]. - Following the break of 7.15 in USDCNY and USDCNH, the market anticipates a quicker convergence of the spot rate towards the central parity [2]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Strategies - The recent increase in RMB exchange rate volatility may affect "carry trade" strategies, which have been popular due to low volatility and a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points since May [2]. - The rise in volatility on August 28 may indicate a shift in the carry trade environment, posing potential risks for traders [2]. Group 4: Export and Investment Implications - While the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may attract foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, it could also impact exports [6]. - The RMB exchange rate index, such as the CFETS index, is more reflective of the export fundamentals, showing depreciation against a basket of currencies while appreciating against the USD, which helps mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [6]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Investor Considerations - The trajectory of the RMB exchange rate remains uncertain due to factors such as unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, delayed effects of China's easing policies, and fluctuations in non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors to make more informed investment decisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a strong central parity rate, with onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates breaking through key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central rate [2][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since late July, the central parity rate has consistently indicated a strong appreciation signal, leading to a rapid increase in the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, with expectations for the USD/CNY to move towards the 7.10-7.15 range [3][4] - As of August 29, the USD/CNY central parity rate was reported at 7.1030, up 33 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a continued strong signal for appreciation [3][4] - The market is closely monitoring factors such as the reversal of "carry trade," the potential for "panic settlement," and the central parity's "bottom line thinking" to gauge future movements in the RMB exchange rate [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to accelerate, with the potential for the exchange rate to reach 7.1 in the short term, contingent on further guidance from the central parity rate [2][3] - The "carry trade" based on RMB has been re-attracted due to a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points between China and the US, although volatility may disrupt this trend [4][11] - The accumulated "pending settlement" amount as of July 2025 was approximately $421.1 billion, with an average holding cost around 7.05, indicating that a rapid depreciation below 7.10 could trigger some capital flight [10][11] Group 3: Implications for Exporters - The active settlement rate for export enterprises has shown a marginal increase, with July's rate at 48.24%, approaching the previous year's levels, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8][10] - The potential for "panic settlement" among exporters is lower than in 2024 due to increased hedging against exchange rate fluctuations, which may lead to a more orderly release of settlement funds [10][11] - The RMB's appreciation against the dollar may not adversely affect exports, as the RMB index against a basket of currencies has depreciated, helping to mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [24]

Group 1 - The recent rise in HIBOR is attributed to a contraction in Hong Kong dollar supply and increased demand from southbound capital inflows, leading to a narrowing of the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread and triggering the unwinding of carry trades, which further pushed up HIBOR and the Hong Kong dollar [1][22][23] - Historical data shows that when HIBOR rises by 20 basis points, there is an 81% probability that the Hang Seng Index will decline on the same day, with an average drop of 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has a 71% probability of decline with an average drop of 1.1% [4][26][27] - The impact of HIBOR on the Hong Kong stock market is indirect and short-term, primarily affecting financing rates linked to HIBOR, which influences market liquidity and investor behavior [12][39] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment, including expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, is favorable for Hong Kong stock market liquidity, supporting the market's performance [15][43] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for asset allocation, focusing on stable value assets with high AH premium as a long-term base, while also considering growth assets with significant potential [15][47] - Recent trends indicate that southbound capital inflows remain strong, with notable net purchases in major stocks like Alibaba and Meituan, suggesting continued interest in Hong Kong equities [52]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.7926 HKD per USD, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of strengthening [1]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The HKD has broken through multiple key levels, moving from a weak exchange guarantee level of 7.85 to 7.80, with the USD touching its lowest level in over three months at 7.7990 HKD [1]. - The recent appreciation follows a period of depreciation where the HKD fell to near the weak side of the peg, demonstrating the volatility inherent in the linked exchange rate system established in 1983 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Response - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened by absorbing HKD 70.65 billion and HKD 33.76 billion on August 13 and 14, respectively, to stabilize the currency, resulting in a decrease in the banking system's aggregate balance from nearly HKD 175 billion to approximately HKD 53.7 billion [3]. - The tightening of HKD liquidity has led to a significant increase in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), with overnight rates rising from below 0.2% to nearly 3% [3]. Group 3: Impact of Southbound Capital Flows - The recent surge in the HKD is closely linked to a reversal in carry trade positions, as liquidity has tightened and the cost of HKD funding has increased [4]. - Southbound capital flows have created strong demand for HKD, with a record net inflow of nearly HKD 358.77 billion on August 15 and a total transaction volume of HKD 1,689.97 billion on August 19, further driving the appreciation of the currency [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, marking a reversal after two months of stability at the weak end of the peg, attributed to various market factors [1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - On August 19, the Hong Kong dollar rose sharply against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.7926, with a daily increase of 0.35% [1]. - This marks the fifth consecutive trading day of appreciation for the Hong Kong dollar, breaking through multiple levels from 7.85 to 7.80 [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the dramatic appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's interventions aimed at stabilizing the currency, leading to a qualitative change after a quantitative reduction in the currency's surplus [1]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar has prompted the unwinding of carry trades [1]. - The expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a surge of capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have also contributed to the strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) interventions, narrowing interest rate differentials, and significant inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The Hong Kong dollar has appreciated for five consecutive trading days, reaching a high of 7.7926 against the US dollar, with a daily increase of 0.35% [1]. - The exchange rate has broken through multiple levels, moving from a stable 7.85 to 7.80, indicating a significant upward trend [1][2]. Group 2: HKMA Interventions - The HKMA has intervened to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar by withdrawing liquidity, with significant amounts of HKD 70.65 billion and HKD 33.76 billion being absorbed on August 13 and 14, respectively [2]. - The total balance of the Hong Kong banking system has decreased from nearly HKD 175 billion in June to approximately HKD 53.7 billion, nearing the pre-intervention level of HKD 44.6 billion [2][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has surged, with overnight rates rising from below 0.2% to nearly 3% due to tightening liquidity conditions [2][4]. - The relationship between liquidity and interest rates is non-linear, with significant changes in HIBOR occurring when the total balance approaches HKD 500 million [4]. Group 4: Capital Inflows - There has been a notable influx of southbound capital, with a record net inflow of approximately HKD 35.877 billion on August 15, driving demand for the Hong Kong dollar [4]. - The demand for the Hong Kong dollar is further supported by the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to influence the interest rate differential between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong dollar will depend on the balance between interest rate differentials and the activity of carry trades [5]. - While the Hong Kong dollar may appreciate moderately, it is unlikely to return to the strong side of the peg at 7.75 in the short term due to the current low interest rate environment and limited likelihood of significant Fed rate cuts [6].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,177, down 0.37% for the day but up 25.51% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,449, down 0.01% for the day and up 9.65% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85% to 3,728, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1] Industry Insights - The healthcare sector showed resilience, with major life sciences companies reporting better-than-expected performance in 2Q25, leading to upward revisions in annual guidance [5][6] - The pharmaceutical industry is facing pressure on profit margins due to external factors, but major pharmaceutical companies continue to invest in R&D, indicating a stable outlook for innovation [8] - The retail sector in the U.S. demonstrated resilience with a monthly growth rate increase from 0% in the first half of the year to 0.7% in July, indicating strong consumer spending [4] Company Analysis - Tongcheng Travel reported a total revenue of RMB 4.7 billion in 2Q25, a 10% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 18% to RMB 775 million, exceeding expectations [8] - Xtep's sales for the first half of 2025 grew by 7% to RMB 6.8 billion, with net profit increasing by 21% to RMB 913 million, surpassing forecasts [13] - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of RMB 14.2 billion in 2Q25, a 42% quarter-on-quarter increase, marking its first positive operating profit [14] Investment Ratings - Leap Motor is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 80, reflecting a strong growth outlook driven by new model launches and expanding sales [14] - Xtep maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.39, supported by robust sales performance and operational efficiency [12] - Tongcheng Travel is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of HKD 24.00, based on its strong core business performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the Hong Kong dollar, suggesting a light holding of positions due to market volatility and uncertainty in exchange rate direction [4]. Core Insights - The rising cost of Hong Kong dollar funding poses risks, necessitating banks to maintain higher liquidity buffers. Market liquidity has decreased, exacerbating market anxiety among carry traders [1][2]. - The yield curve is flattening, with short-term financing costs remaining high. The market is seeking yield protection for 1 to 3-month terms, with 3-month rates recently exceeding 2% [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for arbitrage opportunities in the Hong Kong dollar, but emphasizes the importance of risk-reward ratios and timing for entry [5]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Dollar Analysis - The significant volatility in the Hong Kong dollar is attributed to a general complacency in the market, with banks needing to hold higher liquidity buffers due to large settlement demands [2]. - The current state of the spot market is chaotic, with a preference for light positions until further evidence of exchange rate direction emerges [4]. Yield Curve and Market Behavior - During the initial volatility, there was increased interest in long-term sports betting, reflecting expectations that Hong Kong dollar arbitrage remains attractive despite recent price declines [3]. - The yield curve is currently flat, with a concentration of price movements at the front end, indicating a market focus on short-term yield protection [3]. Taiwan Dollar and Indian Rupee Insights - The Taiwan dollar is expected to appreciate moderately in the second half of the year, with increased hedging to mitigate liquidity ratio deterioration risks [7]. - The Indian rupee faces pressure due to changing trade sentiments and capital outflows, with expectations of reaching a target of around 87 by year-end [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has been rising, with the one-month HIBOR reaching 2% on August 18, marking a new high since May 8, indicating a shift in the banking system's liquidity and interest rate dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Banking System and HIBOR Trends - The banking system's surplus has decreased from a high of 1,740 million HKD in May to approximately 537 million HKD, nearing levels before the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in early May [1] - The continuous rise in HIBOR over four consecutive working days suggests a tightening liquidity environment, with the actual mortgage rate now at 3.3%, still below the market cap of 3.5% [1][2] - The significant widening of the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to increased arbitrage activities, prompting the HKMA to intervene multiple times [1] Group 2: Future Expectations and Implications - The rise in HIBOR is expected to narrow the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S., reducing the incentive for arbitrage and stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar [2] - Despite the current HIBOR being over 2% lower than U.S. rates, expectations of a potential U.S. rate cut later this year could further influence HIBOR downward, with predictions of a decrease in the best lending rate (P) and capped mortgage rates by 0.25% to 0.5% [2] - Factors such as demand for Hong Kong dollars, arbitrage activities, and seasonal influences will continue to affect HIBOR fluctuations, necessitating borrowers to choose capped mortgage plans to mitigate risks associated with rising rates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has recently appreciated against the US dollar (USD), breaking through the 7.82 level after being stable around 7.85 for several days, indicating intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to stabilize the currency [1][3]. Exchange Rate Movements - The HKD/USD exchange rate rose from 7.85 to 7.81823, with a daily low of 7.81330 as of August 15 [1]. - The HKMA intervened by buying HKD 33.76 billion and selling USD on August 14, and HKD 70.65 billion on August 13, to maintain the peg [3][4]. HKMA Intervention - The HKMA has intervened multiple times in the foreign exchange market this year, purchasing over HKD 110 billion since late June [4]. - The HKMA's actions are guided by the Currency Board system, which mandates buying USD and selling HKD when the exchange rate hits the weak-side convertibility threshold of 7.85 [3]. Market Conditions and Outlook - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US remains significant, making carry trades attractive and keeping the HKD close to the 7.85 level [4]. - Analysts expect that the HKMA's interventions will lead to a moderate increase in HKD interest rates, although they may remain below levels seen before May [4][5]. - Factors influencing future HKD movements include US monetary policy, market sentiment, and global capital flows [4][5].