Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing mixed performance with significant regional disparities, as prices for low-end urea have dropped below 1700 yuan/ton in major production areas, while some regions see slight rebounds [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 13, urea futures prices fell, with the main contract closing at 1726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% [2]. - The price of urea in Xinjiang has decreased by 30 yuan/ton, reaching 1450 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea supply remains abundant, with daily production levels consistently high, leading to a situation where the market is not lacking in supply [3]. - Urea companies reported an increase in inventory, with stocks reaching 957,400 tons, up by 6,980 tons or 7.86% from the previous week [3]. - The agricultural demand for urea is currently weak due to seasonal factors, contributing to a lack of market confidence [2][3]. Future Outlook - There is an optimistic expectation for over 3 million tons of urea exports in the third quarter, primarily concentrated from July to September, coinciding with the peak season for autumn fertilizers [3]. - The production cost for urea is expected to provide strong support around the 1700 yuan/ton mark, limiting further price adjustments [4]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential for a rebound in late August due to seasonal demand for autumn fertilizers [4].

8月13日，国内尿素现货涨跌互现，区域分化明显。主流产区山东、河南、山西、河北、安徽等地低端 尿素出厂价跌破1700元/吨，并向1650元/吨逼近；新疆尿素报价再跌30元/吨，低至1450元/吨。而个别 地区小幅反弹10~30元/吨。 当日，尿素期货价格下跌，截至收盘，尿素期货主力2601合约报收于1726元/吨，跌幅1.76%。 业内人士表示，上游厂家收单不佳，纷纷降价吸单，市场低端尿素成交略有好转，但中间商出货价格更 低，导致成交价格与厂家出厂报价出现倒挂。 隆众资讯分析师吴苑丽向期货日报记者表示，进入7月后，因农业季节性需求转弱，尿素大多会有一波 下跌行情。今年市场存在出口的松动，因此市场参与者认为尿素价格下行空间并不大。不过，由于尿素 日产量一直偏高，价格又处于年内的中等位置，很难吸引下一波的农业需求，而且出口一直受政策管 控，短时市场有效支撑较弱，行情呈现震荡下行趋势，下游以逢低采购为主，追涨意愿不足。 方正中期期货研究院产业团队负责人夏聪聪表示，尿素货源供应及市场可流通货源充裕，而需求端则表 现疲弱，导致市场买气不足。现货市场参与者信心不足，尽管低价货源增加，但市场整体交投情况并未 有好转。市场买 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The current daily production will fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In August, many previously shut - down plants are expected to resume production, and some new capacity plants are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers continues to increase, but the downstream dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is insufficient, and the finished product inventory still faces great pressure. In the short term, the high inventory of autumn fertilizers suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and the support for the procurement demand of urea raw materials is weak. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market should pay attention to the support level performance around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton on the disk [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down, and the urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The domestic urea spot market price was weak this week. Supply pressure is expected to increase, while demand is constrained by high inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. 02 Variety Details Decomposition - **2.1 This week, the domestic urea market price changed from strong to weak**: There are price trend charts of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8]. - **2.2 On August 4, the lowest CFR price of the Indian tender on the east coast was $532/ton**: There are charts showing international urea prices, price differences between FOB China and other regions, and export price differences from 2019 - 2025 [10][11][12]. - **2.3 Supply - In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase**: The weekly urea production was 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea production (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea production (+5.92%), with an average daily production of 194,000 tons. There are also plans for plant overhauls and historical data on overhaul losses [16][20][23]. - **2.4 Inventory - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: The urea enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,700 tons. The port inventory was 483,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), and some goods were shipped out of the port. The mainstream advance receipt days of urea enterprises were 6.53 days (+6.7% week - on - week), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises increased slightly [27][31]. - **2.5 Demand - The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.50% (+2.82%), and the finished product inventory was 800,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 23,200 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline [33][34]. - **2.6 Raw Material - The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down**: There are price trend charts of various types of coal such as Yulin thermal coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [36][37]. - **2.7 Profit - The urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: There are charts showing the production gross profit of urea fixed - bed devices from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - **2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited**: There are charts showing the 9 - 1 spread and 09 basis from 2021 - 2025 [45][46][47]. - **2.10 Urea - related Product Spreads**: There are charts showing the price differences between liquid ammonia and urea, urea and ammonium chloride, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [53][52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The impact of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually subsiding. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant due to the increase in port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 780,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On August 8th, compared with August 7th, UR01, UR05, and UR09 futures prices decreased by -0.34%, -0.50%, and -0.52% respectively. Among domestic spot prices, the price in Henan decreased by -0.56%, while the price in Hebei (small - granular) increased by 0.57%. Prices in Shanxi, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] 3. Upstream Costs and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.45%, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 4. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1738 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1728 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 108,076 lots [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, August 4, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy Chemical R & D Report [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The urea futures market rebounded after a decline, and the spot market prices were stable with improved low - price transactions. The overall supply is abundant, while the domestic demand is limited. The new Indian tender has a certain positive impact on market sentiment [3][5] Group 4: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 1733 (+19/+1.11%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory - gate prices were stable, and low - price transactions improved. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Important Information - On August 4, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.47 million tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operation rate was 82.24%, 2.59% higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4] Group 6: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was fair, and the factory - gate quotes in mainstream regions were temporarily stable. Low - price transactions improved [5] - Supply: Some plants were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19 million tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 5.38 million tons to around 91.73 million tons, remaining at a high level overall [5] - Demand: The new Indian tender was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared with the previous one. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relaxation of export policies had a certain positive impact on the domestic market sentiment. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was low, and the demand for raw materials was weak [5] - Price Forecast: In Shandong, the factory - gate quotes are expected to increase; in Henan, they are expected to remain stable; in areas around the delivery zone, they are also expected to remain stable [5] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Close short positions and wait and see [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to remain loose, and the demand is seasonally weak. Under the game between long and short in the market, the short - term price may continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by news, but the upside and downside space are both limited. It is recommended that investors respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: No detailed description of the trend, only the data source is mentioned as Wenhua Finance and Guoxin Futures [7][8]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On July 30, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 28 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Wednesday, and at a low level compared with the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.93%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 5.79% year - on - year, still at a high level in the past five years [16]. - **Urea Daily Average Output**: The daily average output of urea was 193,500 tons, still in the high - level range of the past five years [17]. - **Urea Device Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea devices was 178,200 tons, flat month - on - month and down 3.16% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Urea Device Planned and Under - construction in 2025**: Multiple enterprises in different provinces such as Jiangsu Shuangduo, Wulan Group, etc. have planned production capacities in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of a large amount [20]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.09 million tons, flat month - on - month; the weekly output of pipeline - gas - based urea for fertilizers is 300,000 tons, up 3.45% month - on - month. The supply pattern remains loose [22]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Capacity Operation Rate**: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.09%, up 6.24% from the previous period and 5.79% year - on - year [26]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - factory Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 777,200 tons, up 4.73% month - on - month and 18.80% year - on - year [28]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 61.08%, down 2.31% month - on - month and 8.27% year - on - year [33]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 757,000 tons, up 2.16% month - on - month; port inventory is 565,000 tons, up 27.54% month - on - month [36]. 3.2.4 Cost Side - **Urea Production Profit**: Currently, the production profit of fixed - bed urea is - 127 yuan/ton, the production profit of entrained - flow bed process is 352 yuan/ton, and the production profit of natural - gas - based urea is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On July 31, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from July 24 [46]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea devices is getting stronger. The summary price of Yangquan anthracite fines is 770 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period; the summary price of Jincheng anthracite washed small pieces is 900 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period [48]. 3.2.5 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance data of urea from January 2024 to September 2025, including initial inventory, output, total supply, consumption, export, total demand, ending inventory, supply - demand ratio, and price [52]. 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply Side**: The high - supply situation of urea is difficult to change significantly in the short term, and the supply will continue to be loose [57]. - **Demand Side**: It is currently the traditional off - season for demand. Downstream markets are generally wait - and - see, mainly following rigid demand, and there is no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement [57]. - **Inventory Side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. The enterprise inventory is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the port inventory has increased significantly due to the orderly collection of goods for export [57]. - **Cost Side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with changes in demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Investors are advised to respond cautiously to the current market environment with a band - trading mindset [57].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to experience a downward price trend in the second half of 2025 due to seasonal demand fluctuations, high inventory levels, and ongoing supply pressures, despite potential short-term rebounds in August and September driven by agricultural demand and export activities [1][13]. Production Capacity and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the urea industry added 3.51% in production capacity, totaling 309 million tons, with a theoretical capacity increase from 76.7 million tons to 79.39 million tons [2]. - The industry is projected to add another 292 million tons of capacity in the second half of 2025, leading to a total capacity increase of 7.31% for the year [2]. - The profitability of urea production is under pressure, with costs primarily driven by coal and natural gas prices, which account for about 70% of total production costs [2][3]. Cost Analysis - As of June 2025, the production costs for urea varied by production method, with natural gas-based urea costing 1971 CNY/ton, fixed bed process at 1917 CNY/ton, and fluidized bed process at 1478 CNY/ton [3]. - Profit margins for different production methods showed significant variation, with fixed bed and fluidized bed processes experiencing improved margins, while natural gas-based production faced losses [3]. Market Demand Dynamics - Agricultural demand for urea is expected to decline in July due to the seasonal off-peak period, with a potential rebound in August and September driven by fall fertilization and export activities [1][7]. - The overall agricultural demand is supported by the ongoing construction of high-standard farmland, which is projected to increase urea consumption [7][8]. - Industrial demand for urea, particularly from melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin sectors, remains stagnant due to weak real estate market conditions and export challenges [9]. Inventory and Export Policies - Urea port inventories have been rising since May 2025, with expectations of continued accumulation in the third quarter, influenced by export policies and market conditions [10][11]. - The export policy for urea has been clarified, with a total export quota of 2 million tons set for May to October 2025, which may help alleviate some supply pressures [11][12]. Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is characterized by seasonal demand fluctuations, with expectations of lower production utilization rates due to the agricultural off-season and potential winter heating demands impacting natural gas supply [6][12]. - Overall, the urea market is anticipated to remain oversupplied, with price pressures expected to persist unless significant changes occur in export policies or seasonal storage strategies [13].

Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 1746.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.89% [1] Market Conditions - In Shandong, the urea market is weak, with small particle mainstream factory transactions ranging from 1740 to 1810 CNY/ton. In the Linyi market, the reference price is around 1780-1790 CNY/ton, while in Heze, it is approximately 1770-1780 CNY/ton [2] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, which is higher than last week's expectations. The port sample inventory stands at 489,000 tons, also exceeding last week's expectations [2] - The daily production of urea is 198,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous working day but an increase of 29,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate is at 85.79%, up 7.52% from last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Hongyuan Futures indicates that supply pressure in the urea market remains significant, with daily production near 200,000 tons. Although there is a slight reduction in enterprise inventory, upstream companies still hold around 750,000 tons. The demand for top-dressing in July may support prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not compensate, urea prices could face significant downward pressure. A cautious approach is recommended in the short term due to potential policy adjustments [3] - Yide Futures notes that the industry is undergoing structural adjustments and optimizing supply while eliminating outdated capacity. The macroeconomic environment appears strong, with recent coal production limits leading to a surge in coal futures. However, the urea industry is assessed as highly competitive, primarily influenced by macro sentiment. The market is currently viewed as overvalued, with expectations for urea prices to fall within the 1740-1800 CNY/ton range. Attention is drawn to selling call options for September and maintaining a long position in distant months [3]

第一章 综合分析与交易策略 大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡为主 第二章 基本面数据 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：需求低迷，尿素回落 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价大幅领跌，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价大幅下跌，市场情绪表现一般，工 业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，低 价成交尚可，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕， 预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边区域出厂价跟跌，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商 和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看：部分装置检修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。需求端， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].