Core Insights - The report by the China Banking Association indicates that the automotive finance sector is maintaining a robust asset scale, with total assets reaching 855.134 billion RMB by the end of 2024 [1] - Retail financing balances are significant, with a total of 690.024 billion RMB, including 204.096 billion RMB for new energy vehicle loans, which grew by 23.44% year-on-year, and 78.381 billion RMB for used car loans, which increased by 26.06% [1] - Wholesale financing balances stand at 76.9 billion RMB, providing ongoing financial support to the automotive supply chain [1] Regulatory and Management Indicators - The automotive finance companies are showing strong regulatory and management metrics, with an average liquidity ratio of 195.90% and an average capital adequacy ratio of 26.96% by the end of 2024 [1] - The average non-performing loan ratio is reported at 0.65%, indicating a healthy financial environment within the industry [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Core Insights - The automotive consumption potential in China has been significantly released this year due to the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector [1][2] - The retail sales of NEVs reached 5.468 million units in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.3%, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3% for NEVs in the overall passenger vehicle market [1] - The penetration rate of used NEVs has also increased, rising from 8% at the beginning of the year to 9.9% by May 2025, indicating a growing market for second-hand NEVs [1] Industry Trends - The report from Guazi indicates that domestic brands dominate the used car market, accounting for 83% of total transactions, followed by American brands at 11% and German brands at 4% [1] - The top three provinces for used NEV buyers are Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, highlighting the trend that more economically developed regions have a higher proportion of used car transactions [2] - The three main technology routes for NEVs currently are pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and range-extended vehicles, with pure electric vehicles making up nearly 75% of used NEV retail volume [2] Market Dynamics - Policies such as the cancellation of migration restrictions and optimization of transaction registration management are facilitating more efficient circulation of used cars, particularly NEVs [2] - The national transfer rate of used cars reached a historical high of 30% in the second quarter of 2025, with nearly 70% of used NEVs being traded across provinces [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid expansion and strong growth momentum of the new energy commercial vehicle market in China, driven by supportive policies and increasing demand for electric vehicles [6][25][22]. Policy and Regulations - Four departments aim to establish over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, focusing on scientific planning and construction [8][10]. - Beijing is enhancing the automotive consumption ecosystem to stimulate new energy vehicle sales, while Chongqing plans to introduce special policies for intelligent connected new energy commercial vehicles with subsidies up to 20 million yuan [11][12]. - Tianjin has introduced significant policies to support the development of new energy vehicles, offering rewards for new models that meet production targets [17][21]. Market Insights - In June 2025, domestic commercial vehicle sales increased by 10.3% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a robust growth trend [22][23]. - The cumulative sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 402,000 units in the first half of 2025, a 66.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [25][26]. - The market share of CATL in the new energy commercial vehicle battery market is dominant, with a 51.03% share in the first half of 2025 [31][32]. Company Monitoring - Jianghuai Automobile successfully coordinated the first chocolate battery swap commercial vehicle with CATL, showcasing advancements in battery swapping technology [35][36]. - Dongfeng Liuzhou plans to sell 46,000 commercial vehicles in 2025, focusing on quality management and compliance [38]. - JD Logistics launched its self-developed VAN unmanned light truck, which can replace traditional 4.2-meter trucks for logistics operations [40][41]. Industry Developments - A self-regulatory convention was signed by major online freight platforms to protect the legal rights of truck drivers, addressing issues such as low freight rates and timely payment of wages [43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices rebounded at the beginning of the year due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream players. After the holiday, new - energy vehicle terminal sales declined, lithium salt production climbed rapidly, inventory accumulated, and prices dropped. In June, production contracted, material factories restocked, and policies released positive expectations, leading to a price rebound [3]. - In the second half of the year, the fundamental situation of supply - demand weakness remains unchanged, and prices are expected to continue to decline under the logic of oversupply. However, the advantage of hedging for lithium salt plants disappears, the pace of upstream capacity clearance is expected to accelerate, and there may be frequent disruptions on the supply side. The domestic macro - environment has not improved significantly, and the resilience of power terminal consumption is questionable. The heat of the energy - storage market may continue in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policy risks. Overall, prices may continue to decline, but the downward path may not be smooth [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward based on fundamental logic, with staged rebounds driven by market expectations of marginal fundamental corrections. By May 31, the maximum decline of the 09 contract in the first half of the year was about 25.26% [8]. - Before the Spring Festival, pre - holiday restocking pushed up prices. After the holiday, weak terminal consumption and increased production led to price drops. In March, trade barriers intensified the decline. In May, trade negotiations led to a small rebound, followed by another decline. In June, factors such as factory shutdowns, restocking by downstream players, and short - term profit - taking by short - sellers led to a price rebound [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost Center Moves Down, Lithium Resource Exploration at Home and Abroad Accelerates - Lithium prices and associated ore prices declined, with different rates. Imported lithium spodumene concentrate prices fell from $747/ton at the beginning of the year to $644/ton on June 30, a decline of about 13.79%. Lithium mica prices declined more slowly, from 1,310 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.82% [11]. - Lithium ore imports remained high, and import channels became more diversified. From January to May, the total import volume of lithium concentrate was 291.94 tons, with an increasing trend. Australia was still the main source, accounting for about 53.1%, while African imports increased, accounting for about 36.57% [12]. - Australian mines have abundant resources, but the incremental expectation is slowing. In the first quarter of 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was about 800,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.98%. The weighted average cost decreased from $399.41/ton in Q4 2024 to $359.66/ton [13]. - African mines have limited incremental production this year but strong potential in the long term. Some mines are already at full - capacity production, and some new projects are in the process of ramping up production [14]. - Domestic resources are on the verge of development. Some domestic mines have started production or obtained mining licenses, and technological innovation has reduced the cost of extracting lithium from mica [14]. 2.2 Capacity Growth Slows, Supply Clearance Expected to Accelerate - Lithium salt capacity growth slowed down. From the beginning of the year to May, capacity increased from 1.963 million tons to 2.1486 million tons, an increase of about 9.45%, much lower than the 19.22% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Some projects have stopped construction [17]. - By June 27, the total production of lithium carbonate was about 409,300 tons. Production in Jiangxi and Hunan, mainly from mica - based lithium extraction, increased significantly, while production in Sichuan, mainly from spodumene - based extraction, was relatively stable. Salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai and Xinjiang also increased [17]. - From January to May 2025, lithium carbonate imports were 100,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 15.32%. Chile was the main source, accounting for about 66.52%. Some overseas salt - lake projects are ramping up production, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt is expected to increase [20]. - Some domestic companies have capacity expansion or new - project plans. In the future, the clearance of high - cost capacity is expected to accelerate, but supply disruptions may occur frequently [21]. 2.3 Positive Electrode Material Market Expected to be Stable - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Prices declined. Power - type lithium iron phosphate prices dropped from 35,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 32,300 yuan/ton on June 30, a decline of about 9.01%. Energy - storage type prices dropped from 33,250 yuan/ton to 31,100 yuan/ton, a decline of about 6.46%. Capacity growth slowed down, but production and operating rates increased slightly. New capacity is shifting towards high - compaction products [28]. - **Ternary Cathode Materials**: Prices fluctuated. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 130,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 138,400 yuan/ton on June 30, an increase of about 6.38%. The price of 8 - series materials increased slightly by about 0.14%. The increase in cobalt prices drove up the cost. Capacity growth was slightly positive, and production and operating rates were higher than last year. New capacity is moving towards high - nickel ternary materials [29][30]. 2.4 Terminal Consumption Resilience Questionable, Policies Force Car Manufacturers to Reduce Production Schedules - **Domestic Market**: From January to May, new - energy vehicle production was about 5.701 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 45%, and sales were about 5.606 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 44%. New - replacement subsidies drove consumption, accounting for about 30.49% of total sales in the first half of the year. However, if subsidies are excluded, 2025 consumption is similar to 2024. In the future, consumer willingness may be limited, and policies may pressure car manufacturers' cash flows and production schedules [32][33]. - **Overseas Market**: In Europe, from January to April, new - energy vehicle sales were about 1.1312 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 23.32%. In the US, from January to May, sales were about 647,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 8.87%, and the market penetration rate declined. In the future, European carbon - emission policies may slow down the electrification process, and US tax - incentive policies may change [34]. 2.5 Warehouse Receipt Inventory May Be a Drag, No Industry - Driven De - stocking Expected - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate inventory increased from 61,623 tons at the beginning of the year to 110,305 tons on June 27. Market inventory increased more significantly than factory inventory, indicating increased hedging demand during price declines. In the second half of the year, supply - demand growth is expected to slow down, and the decline in warehouse receipts may reduce inventory, but there is no expectation of industry - driven de - stocking [38]. 3. Conclusion - **Cost and Supply**: Lithium ore resources are abundant, and low - cost Australian mines have an advantage. Overseas and domestic exploration is progressing well. Supply oversupply is expected to continue, but capacity clearance may accelerate, and supply disruptions may occur frequently [41]. - **Consumption**: The resilience of power - terminal consumption is questionable, and the impact of growth - stabilization policies needs to be observed. The energy - storage market may remain hot in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policies. Overall, prices are expected to decline under the logic of oversupply, but the downward path may not be smooth [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the lithium battery industry, including significant orders, market trends, and price fluctuations in key materials such as lithium carbonate, ternary materials, and iron phosphate. Industry Highlights - Anker Innovations has terminated its partnership with Amperes due to recent power bank recalls and has established a new order with CATL for 45 million battery cells over three years [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports for three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels [4] - The upcoming Honor Magic V5 smartphone will feature a 6100 mAh silicon battery with 25% silicon content, promising improved performance and longer battery life compared to its predecessor [5] Lithium Battery Material Market 1. Lithium Carbonate - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have shown slight rebounds, with stable prices around 58,000 RMB/ton. However, the overall trend suggests potential declines due to supply-demand imbalances [8][9] 2. Ternary Materials - Strong demand for nickel materials was noted in June, with some manufacturers experiencing panic buying. Prices for ternary materials remain stable following the extension of cobalt export bans [10][11] 3. Iron Phosphate - The iron phosphate market remains stable, with a slight decrease in expected sales volume for June. The fourth-generation products are actively being promoted [12][14] 4. Anode Materials - Anode material prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions, impacting profit margins for manufacturers. Demand remains weak with no significant increases expected in the short term [15][17] 5. Separators - Separator production is expected to maintain levels from June, with price reductions from lower-tier manufacturers to boost sales. A new separator production facility in Malaysia is set to enhance capacity [18] 6. Electrolytes - Electrolyte shipments did not show significant growth in June, with some manufacturers experiencing slight increases. Prices remain stable, with low operating rates affecting profitability [19][20] Downstream Market 1. Batteries - Domestic battery manufacturers are experiencing varied order volumes, with significant contributions from the new energy commercial vehicle sector. The energy storage market remains optimistic [20][21] 2. Vehicle Sales - Passenger vehicle sales reached 548,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.58%. New energy vehicle sales were 283,000 units, up 32.68% year-on-year [23] 3. Energy Storage - The energy storage market continues to thrive, with significant projects underway both domestically and internationally. Recent procurement projects have set new low prices for lithium iron phosphate battery systems [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke's fourth - round price cut has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 220 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 240 yuan/ton. Steel is in the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills' production enthusiasm is good, and iron - molten output has slightly rebounded. Coke supply is tending to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate. [6] - For coking coal, due to stricter safety inspections and environmental supervision in some coal mines in Shanxi, supply has tightened marginally. Coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The coking coal spot market is running steadily, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1424.0, down 24.5; J2605 closed at 1450.0, down 32.0. [2] - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 843.5, down 16.0; JM2605 closed at 866.0, down 13.5. [2] - **Spot Market**: Coke's邢台出厂价is 1560 yuan/ton with no change; coking coal's澳洲低挥发is 868 yuan/ton, down 1. [2] - **Coking Profit**: 01盘面利润is 251.7 yuan/ton, down 8.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [2] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' iron - molten daily output is 241.6, up 0.57 (0.24% month - on - month). The daily output of all - sample independent coking plants is 65.0, down 0.34 (- 0.52% month - on - month). [2] - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' refined coal daily output is 47.8, down 3.5 (6.70% month - on - month). The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal is 798.1, down 2.3 (- 0.29% month - on - month). [2] 3.3 Important News - In May 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 158.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. [4] - On June 24, the main port iron ore transactions in China were 81.30 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.2%; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel transactions were 9.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%. [5] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Coke: With the fourth - round price cut implemented, steel is in the off - season, and coke supply is loose. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate. [6] - Coking Coal: Supply has tightened marginally, prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The spot market is stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. [6]

Group 1 - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced the end of a 12-day war initiated by Israel, urging institutions to focus on reconstruction efforts [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is in a position to consider policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data, with potential for early interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new closing high since early March [3][4] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Intel rising over 6% and Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon each gaining over 2% [3][4] - Chinese concept stocks experienced a significant rally, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.31%, marking the largest single-day gain since May 13 [3][4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintained an overweight recommendation on Chinese stocks, projecting a target of 4600 for the CSI 300 index, implying about a 10% upside [7] - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program [6] Group 4 - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a record $450.2 billion in Q1, widening from $312 billion in the previous quarter [17] - Guangdong province is accelerating initiatives for trade-in programs for various consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances [18] Group 5 - The price of lemons has skyrocketed by 300% due to extreme weather and increased costs in international trade, leading some beverage shops to temporarily remove lemon drinks from their menus [20] - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans for a nationwide campaign to promote new energy vehicle consumption in 2025 [21] Group 6 - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 11 imported games and 147 domestic games in June, with a total of 55 imported games approved this year [10] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began selling shares of Nvidia, with a total of 100,000 shares sold for nearly $14.5 million [11]

Group 1 - Six departments in China have introduced 19 measures to enhance financial support for consumption, focusing on improving residents' consumption capacity and optimizing credit products for eligible sectors [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the organization of a "New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season" in 2025, promoting vehicle trade-in policies and enhancing the availability of suitable new energy models in rural areas [1] - The draft amendment to the Food Safety Law was presented for review, focusing on enhancing regulation of liquid food transport and stricter penalties for violations [1] - The draft Medical Security Law was introduced, aiming to establish a comprehensive medical security service system and improve direct settlement mechanisms for medical expenses [1] - The World Economic Forum's Summer Davos Forum commenced in Tianjin, indicating a strong commitment to global economic cooperation despite challenges [1] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank elected a new president, Zhao Jiayi, who has extensive experience in international financial cooperation [1] - JD Logistics announced the recruitment of full-time delivery personnel to support its expanding food delivery business, enhancing operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [4] - Daikin Heavy Industries plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Jinjiang Hotels received preliminary approval from the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for its H-share issuance plan [4] - Changchuan Technology intends to raise no more than 3.132 billion yuan through a private placement [4] - Xinyangfeng plans to invest 1.15 billion yuan in a new specialized fertilizer project [4] - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 25%-50% for the first half of the year [4] - Guangda Special Materials anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 367.51% for the first half of the year [4]

Domestic News - The central bank will research and formulate a new stage financial technology development plan, and issue policy documents to deepen the application of financial technology to promote the digital and intelligent transformation of finance [3]. International News - Trump believes both Israel and Iran have violated the ceasefire agreement but stated that there will be no consequences for these violations. He also expressed that he does not wish for a regime change in Iran [4]. - Oil price increases since Israel's attack on Iran on June 13 have been completely erased [4]. - U.S. media reported that preliminary intelligence assessments indicate that strikes against Iran did not destroy nuclear facilities, which the White House denied [4]. - After a conversation between U.S. and Israeli leaders, Israel has halted further military strikes against Iran [4]. - The Iranian president stated that Iran is prepared to engage in dialogue at the negotiation table [4]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that current policies are in a favorable position, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before considering interest rate adjustments. Most officials believe a rate cut later this year is appropriate [4]. - Bostic stated there is currently no need for a rate cut, expecting a 25 basis point cut later this year [4]. - Harker mentioned there is no urgent reason to cut rates, and monetary policy may remain unchanged for a considerable time [4]. - Kashkari noted that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode due to tariff uncertainties [4]. - Williams indicated that tariffs and uncertainties will lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year [4]. - Collins emphasized that a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is necessary [4]. - Bullard stated that monetary policy is in a favorable position, and the Federal Reserve will observe how the economic situation develops [4].