花旗：贸易协议或提振日本央行加息预期 金十数据7月23日讯，花旗研究市场策略师Tomohisa Fujiki在一份报告中称，美日贸易协定的达成可能 促使市场提前计价日本央行加息。"随着贸易不确定性消退，该协议或为日本央行早于当前市场预期的 加息铺平道路，"Fujiki表示。根据隔夜指数互换市场定价，交易员目前预计日本央行在2025年底前再次 加息的概率约为75%。Fujiki认为，若日本央行在下周政策会议上释放鹰派信号，这一概率可能进一步 上升。考虑到潜在政治压力及5-10年期国债可能面临更大的财政风险溢价，投资者整体可能倾向于做陡 收益率曲线。 ...

Core Insights - Japan's real wages have seen a significant decline, dropping 2.9% year-on-year in May, which is the largest decrease since September 2023, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [2] - The nominal wages increased by 1% in May, but this was substantially below market expectations, indicating ongoing pressure on the cost of living ahead of the upcoming elections [2] - The political landscape is becoming increasingly challenging for Prime Minister Kishida, as public dissatisfaction grows due to rising prices and stagnant wages [2][3] Wage and Inflation Data - Consumer inflation in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, with core inflation at 3.7%, significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [2] - Basic wages increased by 2.1% year-on-year in May, while stable indicators excluding bonuses and overtime showed a 2.4% rise, maintaining a growth rate above 2% for nearly two years [3] - The average wage increase from spring labor negotiations reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, covering about 10% of the workforce [4] Economic and Political Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to boost wages, but public support appears to favor opposition proposals for tax cuts [3] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage and price dynamics, with the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for July 31, where the benchmark interest rate is expected to remain at 0.5% [3] - Long-term labor shortages are driving wage increases, particularly in the IT sector, but potential threats from increased tariffs could limit companies' ability to sustain wage growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising energy costs are the primary driver of the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen, which has been further exacerbated by inflationary pressures and market uncertainties [2][3][6] - Japan's reliance on imported oil has led to increased foreign exchange demand, weakening the yen's market liquidity, and contributing to a widening trade deficit [3][6] - The market anticipates potential adjustments to Japan's negative interest rate policy due to rising corporate goods prices, which could provide some support for the yen in the medium term [4][6] Group 2 - There is a growing contradiction between policy interventions and market expectations, as public criticism from U.S. officials regarding the yen's exchange rate has heightened vigilance within the Japanese government [5][6] - The interplay between rising energy import costs and expectations of a policy shift creates a complex environment for the yen, which is likely to face continued pressure in the short term [6]

Group 1 - The auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds showed strong performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, indicating reduced upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to weakened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Following a poorly received 20-year bond auction in May that led to record high yields for ultra-long bonds, the Japanese government has adjusted its bond issuance plan to stabilize demand, maintaining the issuance volume of 10-year bonds while reducing that of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds [4] - The sentiment in the Japanese bond market appears positive as the Ministry of Finance's decision to reduce ultra-long bond issuance has been well-received, although caution remains regarding the upcoming 30-year bond auction [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Japanese government bond serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates, significantly impacting mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [4] - Despite the strong performance of the 10-year bond auction, yields on 30 and 40-year bonds have not significantly declined, reflecting market caution ahead of the 30-year bond auction [5] - The recent short-term survey indicated a significant decline in confidence within the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rates [4]

Group 1: Global Payment Currency - In April, the Chinese Yuan ranked as the fifth most active global payment currency, accounting for 3.5% of the total [1] - Excluding the Eurozone, the Yuan ranked sixth with a share of 2.38% [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.3 in May, while the services PMI also reached 52.3, marking a two-month high [2] - New orders in the manufacturing sector increased at the fastest pace in over a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 227,000, indicating a healthy job market despite trade policy uncertainties [2] Group 3: European Economic Developments - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the rate cut in April was an early action originally planned for June, with a 90% probability of a rate cut next month [2] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, but the services PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months [2] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's core machinery orders surged by 13% year-on-year in March, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the highest level in nearly 20 years [3] - The Bank of Japan's board member stated that there is no need for intervention in the bond market to curb rising long-term bond yields [3] Group 5: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 7.58 basis points to 4.529% [5] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil down 1.23% to $60.81 per barrel [5]

日本央行似乎也开始担忧美国上调关税可能对经济增长和物价产生的直接和间接影响，以及关税上调造 成的不确定性可能对市场情绪带来的打击。 主要预测情景分析和两种风险情景分析 近期，野村日本首席经济学家森田京平博士就日本央行政策发表最新观点，主要观点摘要如下。 森田京平 野村日本首席经济学家 日本央行货币政策会议：维持政策利率不变；经济展望和物价预期也保持不变 在近日结束的货币政策会议上，日本央行宣布维持政策利率不变，并表示将"鼓励无担保隔夜拆借利率保 持在0.5%左右"。这一决策在意料之中，符合市场普遍预期。 同样，日本央行也并未对经济展望和物价预期做出任何调整。 我们认为下一次加息可能推迟到2025年9月的原因包括以下几点：(1)目前经济增长放缓的迹象会持续到4 月-6月；(2)由于美国加征关税，日本企业将在4月以后采取更强的防御姿态；(3)国内政治格局发生变化， 在7月份参议院选举尘埃落定之前，再次加息并不可行。然而，即使7月份不会加息，我们仍有理由预计 加息将发生于此后不久的9月货币政策会议，因为大米价格的同比变化（尽管不是绝对价格水平）很可能 在2025年下半年趋于稳定，使得实际薪资和消费支出有望实现回升。 ...