路透社周三报道称，日本央行上周刻意调整表述，强调日元持续疲软的通胀风险，暗示12月加息仍具可能性。此举源于首相高市早苗与日本央行行长植田和 男上周的关键会晤，似乎消除了新政府对加息的即时政治阻力。 日本内阁上周五批准了21.3万亿日元经济刺激计划，这是高市早苗首相上任后首个重大政策举措。该计划规模创新冠疫情以来之最，加剧了市场对新增政府 债务供应的担忧，也是近期日本收益率曲线陡峭化的关键因素。加之风险偏好回升，引发日元盘中抛售。 日本央行与美联储政策预期分化，料将限制美元/日元汇率的实质性上涨空间。 周三日元兑美元延续自一周半低点以来的日内回调跌势，在欧洲时段前半段刷新日低。市场对日本央行（BoJ）强化加息信号的初步反应转瞬即逝，因12月 或1月进一步收紧政策的可能性仍悬而未决。此外，高市早苗首相推行刺激政策的立场加剧了市场对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，叠加当前普遍的风险偏好情 绪，成为削弱日元避险属性的关键因素。 今日早间公布的数据显示，日本就业市场持续紧俏将推高薪资和服务业通胀，这印证了日本央行对加息的预期。当前市场普遍预期美联储12月将再度降息， 而日本央行则可能加息，这种政策分歧日益显著。后者令美元承压于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has regained strength, surpassing the 100 mark and recovering the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March, supported by various factors including stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes [1][28]. Group 1: US Dollar Strength - The US government ending the shutdown and the release of September non-farm payroll data exceeding market expectations have weakened the logic for the Federal Reserve to cut rates due to deteriorating employment data [1][25]. - The hawkish tone of the October FOMC meeting minutes has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will not easily cut rates again in December [1][28]. - The weakness of the Japanese yen and British pound has also provided support to the US dollar index [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - Non-USD currencies have broadly declined against the strengthening dollar, with the Swiss franc dropping 1.77%, leading the G10 currencies [2]. - The Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar also saw significant declines of 1.59%, 1.27%, and 1.23%, respectively, amid a drop in market risk appetite [2]. - The euro and British pound experienced declines of 0.93% and 0.55%, respectively, influenced by weaker economic data [2][29]. Group 3: Market Focus and Predictions - This week, the market will focus on a series of economic data from the US, particularly PPI inflation and weekly unemployment claims, as well as China's October industrial profits [3][22]. - The market's risk appetite may continue to be volatile, especially after a significant drop in US stocks last week, which could pose a risk to the dollar's further rise [3][36]. - The predicted range for USD/CNY is between 7.09 and 7.14, with expectations for the RMB to maintain a moderately strong trend overall [3][4]. Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB showed resilience against the dollar's rise, with only a slight depreciation, while appreciating against a basket of currencies [4][11]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.4%, indicating a stable performance despite external pressures from a strong dollar [4][11]. - The RMB's demand is expected to remain balanced, supported by expectations of a moderate appreciation and seasonal factors as the year-end approaches [4][22]. Group 5: UK Economic Outlook - Recent UK economic data has confirmed a weak outlook, raising market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, with the probability of a cut in December now around 90% [29][33]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5%, and retail sales data showed a significant decline, further supporting the case for a rate cut [29][33]. - The upcoming fiscal budget report may also impact the pound, with expectations of increased government borrowing potentially leading to bond market pressures [35].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently depreciated significantly against the US dollar, prompting concerns from Japanese officials and speculation about potential government intervention in the currency market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters during the July-September period, raising doubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the near term [1]. - The Japanese government is planning a new round of tax reforms aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, which may create a fiscal gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yen [1]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate briefly fell below the psychological level of 155.00, influenced by a lack of sustained buying interest in the dollar and rising risk aversion [1][2]. - The recent decline in the yen has led to verbal interventions from Japan's Finance Minister, which, along with general risk aversion, provided slight support for the yen [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the closing above the 155.00 psychological level is seen as a new trigger point for bullish sentiment in the USD/JPY pair [3]. - The potential for the USD/JPY to break through the resistance levels of 155.60-155.65 and reach the 156.00 level is significant, while any downward correction below 155.00 may find support in the 154.50-154.45 range [3].

Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal "hawkish" stance is intensifying, with a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts as inflation remains above target levels[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%[9] - The U.S. government shutdown lasting over 43 days has created a data void, impacting the Fed's assessment of economic conditions[9] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. ADP private sector employment decreased by 45,000 jobs in October, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market[14] - The UK’s Q3 GDP grew by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September[20] - Japan's PPI growth slowed to 2.66% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures[21] Group 3: Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14% amid market adjustments following the end of the government shutdown[30] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate hikes[30] - The S&P 500 index saw a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 18.59%[6]

新华财经东京11月13日电 日本东京股市两大股指13日继续上扬。东京证券交易所股票价格指数收盘上 涨0.67%，再创收盘新高。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘上涨0.43%。 由于投资者积极买入低价股，东证股指当天继续高开，全天走出波动上扬行情。日经股指当天小幅低 开，早盘时段股指上下波动，震荡明显。午盘时段日经股指逐渐企稳，最终收涨。 投资者对日本央行加息预期上升，银行等金融相关股票当天涨势明显。此前累计涨幅较大的软银集团股 票当天继续成为投资者获利回吐操作的主要目标，对日经股指形成拖累。 至收盘时，日经指数上涨218.52点，收于51281.83点。东证指数上涨22.39点，收于3381.72点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，有色金属、电力及燃气业、证券及商品期货交易 业等板块涨幅靠前，精密机器、信息及通信业、金属制品等8个板块下跌。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The strategy of selling short-term Japanese government bonds and buying long-term bonds is gaining popularity due to expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and upcoming fiscal spending, leading to a flatter yield curve [1] - The yield difference between 5-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds has narrowed by over 7 basis points this month, reaching the narrowest level since late April, which is a larger change compared to the U.S. and contrasts with the widening yield gap in France [1] - Investors, including Vanguard and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, see value in ultra-long bonds, while T. Rowe Price anticipates that tightening policies from the Bank of Japan will pressure the short-term bond market [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations for the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy, the likelihood of interest rate hikes is increasing due to the weak yen, which could further elevate domestic inflation levels, with overnight index swaps indicating a 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end [3] - HSBC's Asia-Pacific interest rate strategist notes that the current pricing for potential rate hikes in October and December seems low, suggesting that strong economic fundamentals may prompt the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further [3] - Vanguard is preparing for a "flattening trade," betting on a narrowing gap between long-term and short-term yields, with increased bets on rising two-year swap rates and short positions on five-year Japanese government bonds while going long on 25-year bonds [3]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to 151.5300, reflecting a 0.52% increase, driven by optimism surrounding US-China trade negotiations and delayed expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Bank of Japan officials believe there is no urgent need to raise the benchmark interest rate next week, despite the economy moving towards achieving price targets [1] - The central bank will closely analyze economic data and other factors before making a final decision on policy adjustments, with recent developments in financial markets being particularly influential on the yen's impact on inflation [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that if the USD/JPY price breaks above 151.00, it could further rise to the 152.00–152.25 range and potentially extend to the 153.00 supply area [2] - Short-term support for the USD/JPY is around 150.50, with a potential drop below this level testing the psychological barrier of 150.00 and further support at 149.40 and 149.00 [2] - Technical indicators show a bullish short-term trend, with positive signals from the RSI and MACD on both hourly and daily charts, although attention should be paid to resistance and support levels [2]

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4% on October 6, reaching a historic high of 47,699.96 points, with an intraday increase of nearly 2,000 points [1] - The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) also hit a record high, closing at 3,216.31, up 87.14 points or 2.78% from the previous day [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose by 1.56% to 149.74 yen, while the EUR/JPY increased by over 1% to 175.08 yen, marking the highest level since July 2024 [3] - The AUD/JPY exchange rate climbed 1.19% to 98.41 yen, reaching its highest point since January 2025 [3] Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.65% [4] - Mizuho Bank's strategy team noted that uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could push the USD/JPY closer to the 150 mark, although further upward movement may be limited [5] Political Developments - On October 4, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, potentially becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister [6] - Takaichi supports loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may raise concerns about increased bond supply and lower expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [7] - The likelihood of a rate hike in December dropped from 68% to 41% following Takaichi's election [7] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that Takaichi's responsible expansionary fiscal policy could boost the stock market if it ensures targeted funding in high-growth areas rather than indiscriminate spending [7] - The focus will be on balancing fiscal health with economic growth, with caution advised against excessive fiscal expansion [7]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market experienced declines on October 1, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.85% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 1.37% [1][2] - Investor profit-taking activities were prevalent, leading to a downward trend in both major indices [1] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October contributed to market pressure [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 381.78 points at 44,550.85 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 42.86 points to 3,094.74 points [2] - Almost all 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with banking, real estate, and securities trading sectors experiencing the largest drops [2] - Only the pharmaceutical and other products sectors recorded gains during this trading session [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in the stance of the leading candidate for the next president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, regarding monetary policy, emphasizing that the implementation should be decided by the Bank of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's recent statements contrast sharply with her previous dovish remarks from last year, where she labeled interest rate hikes as "foolish," which were interpreted as a potential delay in the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policies [1] - The market is closely monitoring Takaichi's campaign dynamics due to rising expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with speculation of a possible increase as early as October 30 [1] Group 2 - Takaichi expressed caution regarding potential interest rate increases, noting that significantly higher rates could deter corporate investment in new technologies [1] - The Japanese government debt structure is relatively stable, with over 90% of government bonds held by domestic investors, making it one of the most stable bond markets globally [2] - The upcoming election on October 4 will determine the next party leader, but uncertainty remains about whether the winner can ultimately become the Prime Minister due to the party's lack of a majority in both houses of parliament [2]