Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a new record, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a 1.50% increase and breaking a ten-year high since July 2015, supported by a strong performance across various sectors and increased trading volume [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited a comprehensive upward trend, with significant contributions from the financial, materials, and technology sectors, driven by ongoing policy benefits and accelerated industrial trends [2]. - The financial sector, particularly securities and insurance, played a crucial role in supporting the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, with companies like New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching new highs [2]. - The cyclical sector saw notable gains due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with the metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, experiencing significant price increases [2]. Emerging Trends - The technology and emerging industries continued to show structural growth, particularly in the brain-computer interface sector, which has become a hot topic, with companies like Beiyikang and Weisi Medical seeing substantial stock price increases [3]. - The brain-computer interface market in China is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26%, indicating its potential as a key growth area in the global market [3]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The recent market rally is characterized by a significant increase in both trading volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 7% since December 17, 2025, and total market turnover increasing from 1.8 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [4]. - Various funding sources, including foreign capital and margin trading, have contributed to this volume increase, with margin trading balances reaching a historical high of 25,606.48 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market's future performance, attributing the current rally to a confluence of favorable policies, capital influx, and strong fundamentals [6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing "spring rally" has room for further development, with a focus on sectors benefiting from AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, such as industrial resources and equipment exports [7].

Market Overview - In December, the equity-like market transitioned from stability to volatility, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.30% for the month and 27.65% for the year[12] - The market experienced a significant rebound starting December 17, following a brief dip on December 16, indicating strong market resilience[12] Structural Risks and Fund Sentiment - Structural risks have notably eased, with the concentration of trading volume below historical high levels, dropping to 41% on December 16[25] - Positive fund sentiment was reflected in a net inflow of 806 billion CNY into stock ETFs in December, second only to April's 1,825 billion CNY[35] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have shown a significant upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 100 CNY rising by 2.40 percentage points to 35.77%[18] - The median price for convertible bonds is expected to remain in the 130-135 CNY range if the equity market maintains a strong oscillating pattern[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a bullish mindset, as the market is currently in a low implied volatility state, similar to conditions seen in July[75] - Historical trends indicate that year-end rallies often face resistance at previous highs, but successful breakouts can lead to substantial gains, as seen in 2014 and 2020[76] Risks and Considerations - The primary risk for convertible bonds lies in the potential weakness of the equity market, which could exert dual pressure on valuations and underlying stocks[63] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring equity market trends and expectations, as a sustained downturn could negatively impact convertible bond inflows[62]

1月6日，A股上证指数成功站稳4000点整数关口，收盘报4083.67点，录得13连阳创下十年收盘新高。当 日市场呈现普涨格局，全市场成交额突破2.83万亿元，超4100只个股上涨。 在积极宏观政策支撑、宏观经济回暖及增量资金入市等多重因素的支撑下，沪指自2025年"924行情"起 步后持续震荡上行，在2700点区间逐步攀升至4000点关口，其间仅经历短暂回调，累计涨幅超 48.41%，创近十年以来的阶段新高。 对于后市走势，多家市场机构判断，春季躁动值得期待。平安证券研报认为，展望2026年1月，境内资 产受益于内部政策和资金面催化持续，有望支撑市场风险偏好。国内偏积极的政策基调已然清晰，政策 前置发力的预期有望升温；同时，考虑到岁末年初机构资金提前布局、保险资金"开门红"等，1月市场 流动性预计偏宽。 证券时报网截图 三大指数全线飘红 6日，上证指数以震荡上行在4000点上方调整，盘中最高触及4080.77点，最终收盘站稳4000点上方，报 4083.67点，上涨1.50%。截至收盘，深证成指收盘14022.55点，涨幅1.40%；创业板指收盘报3319.29 点，涨幅0.75%。 盘面热点呈现多点开花态 ...

2026"开门红"事件点评 核心结论 事件：2026 年 A 股第一个交易日，上证指数大涨 1.38%，突破 4000 点整数关 口，全 A 成交额放量。对于当前的市场，我们观点如下—— 1、行情启动信号一：从"缩量犹豫"到"放量启动" 开年大幅放量上涨，可以说打消了大家对年底缩量上涨的犹豫。我们自 10.12《攻 守易形》以来反复强调，随着美联储重启降息，人民币汇率升值，跨境资本会加 速回流，驱动中国资产"再通胀牛"。近期汇率的升值反映到市场流动性的改善， A 股成交额有望再次上台阶，并确认主升行情启动——2024 年 9 月和 2025 年 6 月依次确认全 A 成交额低点 5000 亿和 1 万亿，随后行情启动；2025 年 12 月全 A 成交额低点 1.7 万亿基本被确认，主升行情也将启动。 2、行情启动信号二：主题活跃，春季燥动 市场的放量至少意味着会出现结构性的主题和成长行情，也就是大家常说的春季 躁动行情。昨天的主题交易百花齐放，有不少都有一定逻辑支撑——脑机接口好 在新，机器人好在有相关催化，6F 有业绩和锂价的支撑，存储也有业绩和涨价 的支撑，商业航天也催化不断，都是值得关注的方向。不过， ...

华宝是金 rabao WP Fund FINERS FREE 2026年01月 | 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 | 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 +1.38% +1.33% +1.89% 数据来源:沪深艾易所等,行情数据表 50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 布。A500ETE率空于2024 12.2 当日大市行情 fir +1.5% +0.75% +1.4% 创业板指 上证指数 深证成指 较上一日+2602亿元 两市成交额2.81万亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 1222具 4108 140只 == =1 上涨 ■| 上联 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 的。A50DETE座审于202412 当日大市行情 +1 50/0 全市场个股涨跌数 1977年 IAOL 4 11 == ==== 下午 贫金净流入TOP3行业(申万一 手散分 脚 有色金属 IN II ZE VIL 华西证券:牛市基础仍扎实,看季躁动已提前演绎 2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年",牛市基础仍扎实,且春季躁 动已提前演 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day winning streak, reaching its highest level since July 2015, closing at 4083.67 points, up 1.50% [3][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.40% to 14022.55 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.75% to 3319.29 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 283.26 billion, an increase of 26.51 billion from the previous day [3][5] Market Dynamics - The current market trend is characterized as a "short squeeze" rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous highs and maintaining a strong upward momentum [4][5] - Nearly 4000 stocks rose, with only 1210 declining, indicating a broad-based rally. The median increase among stocks was 0.8% [5] Sector Performance - The insurance sector led the market with a gain of over 4%, indicating its role as a core driver of the current rally since early December [5] - The securities sector also performed well, benefiting from prior adjustments, while the banking sector contributed to stabilizing the index despite initial declines [5] - Technology stocks, particularly in communications and semiconductors, faced adjustments, leading to a weaker performance in the ChiNext Index [6] Capital Flow - Significant capital outflows were observed in the communications sector, with approximately 11.1 billion leaving, while the securities sector saw a net inflow of 3.9 billion, indicating a potential shift in market focus [6] - The overall market experienced a net outflow of about 8 billion, despite the strong index performance, suggesting caution among investors [7] Future Outlook - The current market rally is seen as an early start to the spring market, but there are concerns regarding upcoming earnings reports that could impact speculative stock performance [7] - Investors are advised to monitor the performance of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index, which showed signs of a pullback towards the end of the trading day [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues its strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day winning streak, reaching its highest level in over ten years since July 2015, closing at 4083.67 points, up 1.50% [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,326 billion, an increase of 2,651 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks rising and nearly 150 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Key sectors such as insurance, energy metals, fertilizers, securities, and aerospace saw significant gains, while the beauty and personal care sector was the only one to decline [2] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the market's rise to external market recovery, a stable policy environment, and increased capital inflow, indicating a shift in market sentiment from volatility to positivity [6][7] - The financial and real estate sectors are stabilizing investor confidence, with continuous net purchases of ETFs reflecting long-term capital increasing its stake in core assets [6][7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's GDP growth rate will exceed market consensus, recommending overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a 15% to 20% annual increase in the stock market for 2026 and 2027 [7] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with stocks like Huayin Securities and Huashan Securities hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 6% [8] - The brokerage sector's performance is driven by a significant valuation adjustment since September 2025, coupled with increased capital inflow and regulatory easing, leading to a rebound in sentiment [10] - Analysts believe that the brokerage sector has clear opportunities for growth due to active market trading and supportive policies for leading firms [10] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper, is showing strong performance, with Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining seeing significant price increases [12] - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to declining global inventories, improving economic expectations, and rising demand from high-copper industries in China [15] - Analysts predict a turning point in the supply-demand relationship for refined copper around 2026, with optimistic demand forecasts for both the U.S. and China [15] Group 5 - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with companies like Junzheng Group and Hengli Petrochemical seeing substantial gains [17] - Prices for key chemical products have rebounded, driven by concentrated inventory replenishment demand ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a clearer signal of industry recovery [19] - Analysts expect the chemical industry to reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, supported by strong policy expectations and a shift in supply-demand dynamics [19]

宏观点评 20260106 每周宏观经济和资产配置研判—20260106 2026 年 01 月 06 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 国内宏观观点： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 ◼ 海外宏观观点：开门红行情的三个线索 ◼ 权益市场观点： ◼ 债券市场观点： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从宏微观维度观测市场节奏》 2026-01-05 《恒生科技 ETF， 2025 年 12 月复盘 及 2026 年 1 月展望》 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ➢ 年底政策集中出台，经济预期有所回升。近期系列政策陆续落地，投资 端"止跌回稳"政策见效，四季度的"两个五千亿"落地后，12 月建筑 业 PMI 环比回升 3.2 个点至 52.8%；消费方面"以旧换新"第一批资金 提前拨付；受此影响，代表经济景气度的 12 月制造业 PMI 环比回升 0.9 个点至 50.1%，远超季节性，也是去年 3 月以来首次回到 50%荣枯线上。 ➢ 我们预计 2025 全年经济增速在 5%左右，2026 一季度经济开门红 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rare 13 consecutive days of gains, breaking the previous high from November 14, 2025, and reaching a new high since July 2015, closing up by 1.50% [1] - The market saw over 4,100 stocks in the green, with significant contributions from financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and internet finance [1] Seasonal Trends - According to Zheshang Securities, the first quarter typically sees a "spring rally," where small and mid-cap growth indices perform best, setting the stage for February's market performance [1] Key Sectors Financial Sector - Major financial stocks like Dazhihui and Hualin Securities hit the daily limit, while China Ping An reached a new five-year high [1] Brain-Computer Interface - The brain-computer interface sector saw a surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by breakthroughs in clinical trials for a new fully implanted device [3] - The industry is expected to enter a critical phase of large-scale application, supported by policy backing and ongoing technological advancements [3] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector strengthened, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs, influenced by rising global metal prices [4] - The London Metal Exchange reported significant price increases for tin and copper, indicating strong demand and supply dynamics [4] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector experienced a rally, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, following the announcement of a commercially viable solid-state battery by Donut Lab [5] - The sector is expected to progress towards industrialization, supported by policy focus and active participation from industry players [5] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remained active, with storage chips and semiconductor equipment leading the gains, as companies like Beifang Huachuang reached historical highs [6] - Price increases for DRAM chips were reported, with significant hikes expected in Q1 2026 [7] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted the internal trend of a "transformation bull market" in China, driven by economic shifts and capital market reforms [8] - Debon Securities expressed optimism for a slow bull market following the New Year, with expectations for continued upward movement in the A-share market [8] - Dongfang Securities noted that the market's upward trend is supported by strong investor confidence and the commercialization of new industries like brain-computer interfaces and AI [9]

机构观点方面，华西证券指出，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已 提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和 投资规划，同时财政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资金层面，12月以股 票型ETF为代表的机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金 入市有望强化春季行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈 利进入温和复苏通道，对盈利拐点的博弈将成为行情的重要支撑。 长江证券资深投资顾问刘浪表示，昨天脑机接口概念股全线爆发。据媒体报道，复旦大学附属华山医院 脑机接口植入技术再获突破。国内首款、国际第二款内置电池的全植入、全无线、全功能"三全"脑机接 口产品，成功完成首例临床试验。28岁高位截瘫8年的患者通过植入脑机接口系统，第一次用意念控制 轮椅、浏览网页……这项技术突破标志着中国在脑机接口领域已跻身全球顶尖序列。另外，近期埃隆· 马斯克表态，旗下Neuralink将在2026年启动脑机接口设备大规模生产。开源证券认为，脑机接口行业正 处 ...