| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

Group 1 - As of August 5, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 2,002.59 billion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan again, which is a significant milestone compared to the previous peak in May 2015 during a bull market [1] - The proportion of margin trading balance to the A-share circulating market value is currently 2.31%, significantly lower than the 4.16% recorded on May 20, 2015, indicating that the growth of margin trading balance is aligned with the overall market value growth [1] - The financing buy-in amount accounted for 10.23% of A-share transaction volume on August 5, compared to 14% in 2015, suggesting that while leveraged trading is active, it has not reached excessive speculation levels [1] Group 2 - The current rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is between 15 and 16, whereas it was between 19 and 20 in May 2015, with peaks exceeding 23, indicating that market valuations have not rapidly increased [2] - The recent funds from margin trading have primarily flowed into sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment, with key stocks including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and BYD, contrasting with the financial sector focus during the 2014-2015 period [1] - The recent meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to consolidate the market's recovery and improve market monitoring and risk response capabilities, suggesting a more robust regulatory environment [2]

8月5日，A股两融（融资融券）余额报20002.59亿元，再次突破2万亿元，上一次两融余额突破2万亿元 还要追溯到2015年5月20日。10年前后，两融余额规模虽然大体相同，但是内涵已完全不同，其中最大 的变化，是两融从抱团走向了分散，杠杆资金从一个不稳定的变量，蜕变成一个稳健、理性的确定性力 量，助推A股持续走稳向好。 首先，分散体现在股票数量上。2015年A股上市公司总数不足3000家，现在已超过5400家。2015年5月 20日，有两融余额的个股835只，平均值20多亿元，如今3712只个股有两融余额，平均数仅5亿多元。 2015年，融资"抱团"的特点十分明显，两融余额排名前100的股票合计占比43%，如今占比只有25%； 2015年，个股两融余额占流通市值比例的最高值为18.84%，超过10%的有142只股票，如今这两项数值 分别为15.84%和13只。两融越分散，集中度越低，由两融变动引发市场波动的可能性就越低，市场的 稳定性就越强。 其次，分散体现在时间维度上。2015年初，两融余额站上1万亿元，到当年5月20日就突破2万亿元，占 A股流通市值的比例也从3.33%增加至4.01%。但杠杆资金加速进 ...

当然，加杠杆也意味着加风险，这要求投资者要对企业真实价值有更充分的了解，对A股整体走势有更 精准的把握，只有理性投资、长期投资，动用杠杆才能撬动更多回报。 笔者认为，两融余额再破2万亿元，只是一个新的起点——无风险利率处于低位提升了A股的吸引力， 而券商融资利率跟随下行降低了杠杆资金的成本，这两种效应叠加在一起，意味着两融市场仍有可观的 发展空间。 其次，分散体现在时间维度上。2015年初，两融余额站上1万亿元，到当年5月20日就突破2万亿元，占 A股流通市值的比例也从3.33%增加至4.01%。但杠杆资金加速进场很快就转为快速退场，在之后的调整 中，两融规模迅速下降，这也给A股走势带来了巨大压力。2024年2月，两融余额来到阶段性低点14211 亿元，此后用了一年半的时间累计增逾5789亿元，没有非理性情绪推动的脉冲式增长，而是跟随市场走 势稳步加仓，两融为A股整体走势锦上添花。如今A股总市值迈过100万亿元，两融余额重回2万亿元上 方，但占流通市值的比例只有2.3%，依旧维持在非常健康的水平。 再次，分散也体现在参与者的数量上。在资金供给方券商这一侧，以"融出资金"作为融资余额的衡量指 标，2015年上半 ...

（原标题：两融余额重新站上2万亿！ 有基金经理称将突破6124点！） 时隔十年，两融余额重新站上两万亿元！ 当下市场乐观情绪的持续动力较强，主要源自两方面：一是"反内卷"交易受到杠杆资金认可，博弈政策加码预期；二是中报催化景气交易，医 药、科技等高景气的成长行业符合杠杆资金的选股偏好。 业内人士认为，杠杆资金是一把双刃剑，助涨也助跌，杠杆资金的狂热往往是行情阶段高潮的信号，投资者不宜过度乐观，尤其要回避融资盘占 比较大的高位个股。 上证指数3600点之际，市场争议大，有观点认为，现在这个位置风险大；也有观点表示，3600点是牛市起点。 私募基金信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日表示，现在是史诗级牛市的起点。 随着大盘的持续走高，沪指重新站上3600点，A股市场融资余额水涨船高。截至8月5日，市场融资融券余额为20002.59亿元，为2015年7月2日后， 首度站上2万亿元。 从个股来看，东方财富、中国平安、贵州茅台两融余额居前，分别为232.35亿元、221.35亿元、173.79亿元，比亚迪、中信证券、长江电力两融余 额均超100亿元。 2024年9·24行情以来，融资余额中枢从1.5万亿元升至1.8万亿元，震荡区间延 ...

Core Viewpoint - The total margin financing balance in A-shares has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The margin financing balance, which reflects the total amount investors borrow to trade stocks, has reached 2 trillion yuan, a level not seen since the peak of the 2015 bull market when it hit 2.27 trillion yuan [3]. - Current margin financing accounts for only 2.29% of the circulating market value, compared to 3.89% during the 2015 peak, suggesting that there is still room for growth in the market [3]. - A surge in trading activity has been observed, with A-share trading volumes consistently exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan since July, and net purchases by margin traders exceeding 40 billion yuan weekly [3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors are gradually reallocating their portfolios, with data from CITIC Securities indicating an acceleration of fund inflows from individual investors since July, alongside increased allocations to equity assets by insurance funds and private equity [3]. - The emergence of the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) as a new investment arena is noted, with its margin financing balance currently at 6.2 billion yuan, expected to grow as the number of eligible stocks increases and margin requirements decrease [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The current surge in margin financing is characterized by a concentration of funds in popular sectors such as new energy vehicles and robotics, with major stocks like CATL and Industrial Fulian dominating the net purchases [4]. - There is a growing divergence in market behavior, where core assets like Moutai and CATL see simultaneous increases in financing balances and stock prices, while small-cap stocks experience capital outflows [4]. - The increase in margin financing is viewed as the beginning of a new market cycle, with potential opportunities in niche sectors, particularly in specialized enterprises on the Beijing Stock Exchange that have not yet seen price increases [5].

杠杆资金正在加速入场。 数据显示，截至8月5日，A股两融余额已经达到了20002.59亿元，再次突破2万亿元。上一次两融余额2万亿"盛 况"，还要追溯到2015年5月20日，当时正值一轮大牛市。 中金公司表示，自2024年9月以来，A股融资融券余额上升，接近2015年的高点。但是，相比于2015年，当前 股市总市值已大幅增长，融资融券余额与股市自由流通市值之比仍然处于相对较低的位置。如果政策力度加 大，尤其是在解决债务和改善资产负债表方面的政策力度加大，市场情绪仍有改善的空间。 杠杆资金情绪稳定 券商中国记者注意到，今年以来，两融余额增长较快，年初时（2025年1月2日），两融余额是1.86万亿元，至 今增长了大概1400亿元。2024年初、2023年初、2022年初、2021年初两融余额分别是1.66万亿元、1.55万亿 元、1.83万亿元、1.64万亿元。2015年时，两融余额短暂突破了2万亿元，此后开始回落，甚至一度低于1万亿 元。 从两融余额占A股流通市值的比重来看，这一次的占比明显低于2015年时的情况。Wind数据显示，8月5日， 两融余额占A股流通市值的比重为2.31%。2015年5月20日，两 ...

Group 1 - N HANSANG listed today with an opening price of 91.5 CNY per share, representing a 216.5% increase [1] - The company is a leading provider of high-end audio products and comprehensive audio technology solutions, focusing on high-performance audio products, innovative audio, and AIoT smart products [1] - N HANSANG primarily collaborates with well-known global electronic audio brands through an ODM business model [1] Group 2 - As of August 5, the market's margin trading balance reached 2 trillion CNY, marking a significant milestone not seen in ten years [2] - On August 5, 553 stocks received net purchases of over 10 million CNY in margin trading, with 13 stocks exceeding 100 million CNY in net purchases [2][3] - The top net purchase stock was Shenghong Technology, with a net purchase of 505 million CNY, followed by CATL and Zhinanceng with net purchases of 363 million CNY and 192 million CNY, respectively [2][3] Group 3 - In the past two days (August 4 to August 5), 18 stocks announced institutional research records, with Dongwei Technology receiving the most attention from 152 institutions [4] - Institutions focused on Dongwei Technology's glass substrate equipment shipments, the impact of increased high-end product ratios on electroplating equipment, and the company's capacity bottlenecks and order status [4] - Taiankang was researched by 92 institutions, with a focus on the clinical trial progress of its innovative drug CKBA for vitiligo [4][5]

Group 1 - A total of 1,591 stocks experienced net financing purchases on the previous trading day (August 1) [1] - Guizhou Moutai topped the list with a net purchase amount of 286 million yuan [1] - Other notable net purchases included Yidian Tianxia, Yingweike, and Ruikeda, with net purchase amounts of 278 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 243 million yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities, Shenghong Technology, and Xinyisheng had the highest net selling amounts, totaling 645 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 263 million yuan respectively [1]

Group 1 - A total of 1591 stocks received net financing purchases on August 1, with 14 stocks having net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - Kweichow Moutai topped the list with a net purchase amount of 286 million yuan, followed by Yidian Tianxia, Yingweike, and Ruikeda with net purchases of 278 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 243 million yuan respectively [1] - CITIC Securities, Shenghong Technology, and Xinyisheng had the highest net selling amounts, with figures of 645 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 263 million yuan respectively [1]