炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 每当12月临近，投资者都期待华尔街策略师能提供具有操作性的交易建议。本周，花旗研究部的全球宏 观经济策略团队正是这样做的。 花旗策略师提出了一系列交易建议，并对美联储利率政策和铝产量等市场相关话题进行了预测。 在推荐的交易中，有一项是利用杠杆押注人工智能（AI）交易将继续推动纳斯达克100指数走高。该团 队建议，投资者可以买入将于2026年12月到期的该指数虚值看涨期权。 他们表示，只要资本投资继续增长，且金融系统的流动性保持充裕，投资者就有足够的时间在AI泡沫 膨胀的过程中继续乘势而上。 他们所描述的并非简单的轮动，而是在牛市进入第4年之际，市场呈现出一种看涨的普涨态势。该团队 认为，金融股的表现应优于属于防御性板块的消费必需品股，并建议超配金融股，低配消费必需品股。 "我们认为周期性股票在通胀复苏的经济环境中会有出色表现，"该团队在谈到通胀和经济增长速度双双 回升的情景时如是说。 花旗的下一个主题带来了一丝警示。威尔及其团队指出，美股和债券在中期选举年通常表现疲软。此 外，这种疲软往往出现在第3季度。当执政党继续掌权 ...

上周，美联储降息并启动购买短期美债，投资者谨慎看待AI行业高估值前景的同时，看好降息对实体经济的提振作用， 资金多日从高估值的科技股流出，流向对利率波动敏感的金融、工业等周期股，板块轮动使得美国三大股指上周走势分 化。从全周来看，道指累计上涨超1%，标普500指数下跌约0.6%，纳指下跌超1.6%。 上周国际金价与银价均上涨 原油期货方面，投资者上周主要聚焦俄乌谈判进展，部分投资者看好俄乌达成和平协议的前景，因而陆续减仓，以应对 俄罗斯石油重返国际市场的可能，国际油价上周显著下跌。从全周来看，纽约原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.39%，布伦 特原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.13%。 本周英国央行与欧洲央行将公布最新利率决议 本周，全球多个发达经济体的央行将陆续公布最新利率决议，其中，英国央行与欧洲央行的货币政策最受关注。 英国方面，由于经济增长的疲软态势比预期更为糟糕，尤其是服务业和建筑业近期都表现不佳，外界普遍预计，英国央 行会在本周宣布降息25个基点来刺激经济，有分析指出这很可能是英国央行本轮宽松货币政策周期中的最后一次降息。 欧元区方面，由于服务业通胀持续高于欧洲央行目标，交易员普遍预计欧洲央行本周将"按兵不 ...

即将公布的经济数据报告可能为下周市场定下基调。 11月非农就业人数数据将于周二公布，同时公布的还有10月零售销售数据。由于秋季美国政府停摆，这 些报告被推迟发布。 11月消费者价格指数（CPI）将于周四公布。 来源：环球市场播报 北京时间12月15日晚，美股周一高开。市场继续关注资金从高成长科技股流向估值较低板块的板块轮 动，并为本周即将公布的一系列美国经济数据做准备。 上周美股走势分化，标普500指数一周累计下跌0.6%，纳斯达克指数下跌1.7%，对科技和人工智能敞口 较小的道指上涨了1.1%。 随着资金从人工智能领域撤出，甲骨文（Oracle）和博通（Broadcom）两只科技股大幅下跌。标普500 信息技术板块一周累计下跌2.3%。 雅德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）总裁埃德·雅德尼（Ed Yardeni）写道："标普500指数中的'辉煌七 巨头'（Magnificent-7）到2026年可能会不那么辉煌，因为它们在人工智能竞赛中的激烈竞争正开始侵 蚀其所享有的垄断地位。这场竞争的受益者很可能是标普500指数中其余的'令人印象深刻的493 家'（Impressive 493）。" 周一经 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding the high valuations in the AI sector while maintaining optimism about the potential boost to the real economy from lower rates [1] - As a result of sector rotation, funds have flowed from high-valuation tech stocks into rate-sensitive financial and industrial sectors, causing a divergence in the performance of the three major U.S. stock indices [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and balance sheet expansion has driven down U.S. Treasury yields and weakened the dollar, resulting in an approximate 2% increase in international gold prices last week [4] - Silver prices reached new highs due to supply shortages, tight inventories, and surging industrial demand, despite a significant drop of about 4% on Friday; overall, silver prices rose by 5% for the week [4] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced a significant decline as investors focused on the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with some anticipating a peace agreement that could lead to the return of Russian oil to the international market [5] - For the week, the price of the main contract for New York crude oil futures fell by 4.39%, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 4.13% [5] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - This week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, with the Bank of England likely to cut rates by 25 basis points due to worse-than-expected economic growth [8] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain its current policy, with traders expecting no rate cuts in the near future, and some analysts suggesting a potential for rate hikes next year [8] - The U.S. is set to release its first non-farm payroll report and November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data since the end of the government shutdown, with expectations of increased job numbers and a potential rebound in CPI growth to 3.1% [11]

随着2026年的临近，多家华尔街机构对美股市场的预期正在发生变化。过去几年主导市场的科技巨头可 能面临挑战，市场风格或向更广泛的板块扩散。 多位策略师的观点指向了这种潜在转变。Strategas资产管理公司董事长Jason De Sena Trennert表示，他 预计2026年将出现"重大板块轮动"，资金可能流向金融和可选消费品等今年表现滞后的领域。摩根士丹 利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson在其年度展望中也强调了类似的趋势，他认为随着经济进入"周期 初期阶段"，市场扩散趋势有望获得支撑，这将利好于涨幅滞后的周期性板块。 市场对科技股高估值及持续高额AI投入的担忧近期有所加剧。被视为AI领域风向标企业的甲骨文和博 通，其近期发布的财报未能达到市场的高预期，进一步放大了这种疑虑。Strategas的Jason De Sena Trennert指出，该公司目前更青睐标普500等权重指数，而非传统的市值加权指数。 从基本面数据看，盈利增长的来源也可能发生变化。高盛集团的数据显示，标普500指数中前七大公司 的盈利贡献率预计将从50%降至46%，而其余493家公司的盈利增速预计将从2025年的7%加速 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 稳握票息，静待波澜 ——2026 年利率债年度投资策略 ❖ 债市策略：票息为矛、交易为盾 1、再议定价锚：从政策利率到市场利率。（1）10y 定价锚：基本面和政策条 件稳态环境下，参考 25 年关税冲击后 10y 国债运行区间、央行给出的合意区 间、配置与交易行为的变化，我们认为 10y 国债的核心波动区间大致在 OMO+30~50BP，行情极致时可能出现上下 5bp 的超额波动。（2）10y 国债运 行区间：OMO 降息 1 次 10BP（55%概率），全年波动区间预计在 1.6-1.9%； 不降息环境中（40%概率），全年波动区间 1.7-2.0%。（3）30y 定价锚：供需结 构并不占优，30-10y 利差大致可按 30-50BP 观察。（4）1y 定价锚：1y 国股行 存单利率下限或在 DR007+10BP 左右，接近+20BP 具备配置性价比。 2、震荡市赚什么钱？如何操作？ （1）票息为盾：重视震荡市场票息对组合的贡献提升，一是要充分把握票息 的时间价值，早配置早收益，二是要抓住调整窗口积极进行票息布局，在调整 中可以使用"华创三维度比价模型"寻 ...

2025.12. 13 本文字数：1409，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受博通与甲骨文引发的人工智能泡沫担忧情绪影响，叠加部分美联储官员发声反对宽松货币政策、推 高美国国债收益率，美股主要指数周五全线走低。截至收盘，道指跌245.96点，跌幅0.51%，报 48458.05点，纳指跌1.69%，报23195.17点，创两周新低，标普500指数跌1.07%，报6827.41 点。 本周，道指累涨1.05%，纳指累跌1.62%，标普500指数累跌0.63%。 【热门股表现】 博通跌11.4%，市值蒸发约2300亿美元。 此前该芯片制造商表示，公司第一财季综合毛利率将出现 环比下滑。 甲骨文下跌4.8%，尽管公司否认关于其为人工智能公司 OpenAI打造的数据中心项目延期的报道， 其股价在前一交易日大跌超10%后周五继续下挫。 费城半导体指数跌5.1%， AMD跌4.8%，英伟达跌3.3%，英特尔跌4.3%。今年早些时候曾受益于 人 工 智 能 投 资 热 潮 的 部 分 个 股 ， 在 周 五 同 样 遭 遇 重 挫 。 晟 碟 （ SanDisk ） 暴 跌 14.6% ， CoreWeav ...

标普500指数周四再次收于历史新高，这在2025年虽不罕见，但这一次距离上一次破纪录已有六周。不过，周四的市场格局与10月下旬相 比已是截然不同。 首先，10月的高点伴随着一阵投资者的狂热情绪，主要受到强劲财报季和对人工智能前景兴奋感的推动。而这一次，那种"上头"的感觉 已荡然无存，对于期盼年底反弹的多头来说，这反倒是个积极信号。 继美联储如期降息25个基点，且美联储主席鲍威尔发表关于美国经济韧性的评论后，标普500指数出现反弹。该指数今年已录得17%的涨 幅，并于周四收于历史新高。 由Ned Davis Research编制的一项情绪指标（追踪包括波动率、投资者仓位和机构投资者调查在内的20个分项）目前低于62.5，处于通常 被视为极端乐观区间的底部之下。 自标普500指数在10月下旬创下前次纪录以来，投资者的目光已转向大型科技股以外的板块。这部分是因为AI浪潮正惠及更多领域（如公 用事业、工业公司），以及美联储暗示将降息。 与此同时，经济学家和策略师预计美国经济将在新的一年迎来飙升，从而推高利润。关于AI泡沫的担忧已迅速让位于对美国经济增长的 乐观情绪。 Ned Davis Research的首席美国策略 ...

Market Overview - Initial jobless claims reported at 236,000, with the trade deficit narrowing to $52.8 billion [1] - The market is experiencing a healthy rotation, particularly within the technology sector, rather than a broad sell-off [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Oracle's market reaction is viewed as a sign of rational exuberance, indicating a healthy market environment despite its stock being under pressure [2][4] - Broadcom's upcoming earnings are anticipated to shift market narratives, especially in the TPU space, which is seeing increased interest [5] Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - The market is struggling to break above the key resistance level of 6900, which is crucial for bullish sentiment [6] - A healthy rotation is noted, with potential for a rally if growth and value sectors continue to attract positive inflows [7] Geopolitical Factors - Mexico's Senate approved a 50% tariff on certain goods starting in 2026, impacting trade relations with China and other countries [12][13] - This move could lead to retaliatory actions from China, affecting commodities like copper and automotive parts [15][16] Commodity Market Trends - Copper and silver prices are rising, driven by a weaker dollar and increased retail buying, with silver up 3% and copper up 1.7% [18][23] - Upcoming elections in Chile, a major copper producer, could influence copper mining stocks positively [22]

Core Insights - Hedge funds have net bought global stocks for the seventh consecutive week, with a significant shift in market sentiment and strategies observed [3][5][11] - The S&P 500 index is nearing its historical closing record, driven by various market forces and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3][11] - Corporate buyback activities have surged, with trading volumes significantly higher than previous years, indicating companies' strategies to counter market weakness [11][12] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds' total gross leverage increased by 1.5% to 286.6%, while net leverage rose by 0.4 percentage points to 81.2%, reaching the 99th percentile for the past year [5] - All major regions, except for Asian emerging markets, experienced net buying, with North America leading the gains [5] - The net buying ratio of long positions to short positions among hedge funds is 1.3 to 1, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [3][5] Market Trends - There is a notable rotation of funds from defensive sectors to cyclical stocks, with utilities down 4.83% and cyclical stocks up 5.01% [4] - Quantum computing stocks have seen a five-day increase of 14.61%, while non-profitable tech stocks rose by 9.61% [4] CTA Strategy - CTA strategy funds have shifted to a buying stance across various market conditions, with expected purchases of $29.8 billion in flat conditions and $31.2 billion in rising conditions [7][10] - The model predicts that these strategies will reach target exposure levels in the coming days [10] Corporate Buybacks and IPOs - Corporate buyback activities are at a peak, with trading volumes 80% higher than the average for the same period in 2024 and 100% higher than in 2023 [11] - In North America, new issuances and expansions reached $9.95 billion this week, totaling $390.2 billion year-to-date, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance for stock prices [12] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has improved significantly, with the AAII sentiment survey showing a bullish percentage increase of 12.3 points to 44.3% [13] - The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose from 18 to 40, marking the highest level since late October, while Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator has returned to neutral territory [15]