Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of -0.4%, influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year and lower food price increases than seasonal levels[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking a two-and-a-half-year high, indicating structural inflation despite overall CPI decline[1][15] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI, with an annual decline of 4.3%, contributing approximately 0.51 percentage points to the overall CPI drop[1][14] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, an improvement from July's -3.6%, signaling a potential easing of industrial deflation pressures[2][18] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained flat, ending an eight-month downward trend, with some industrial prices showing signs of recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics[2][18] - The coal processing price increased by 9.7%, while domestic oil extraction prices decreased by 1.4%, reflecting mixed trends across different sectors[2][21] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Future PPI declines are expected to narrow due to low base effects and ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at optimizing market competition[2][22] - The recovery of the real estate market remains slow, posing risks to demand for industrial products and potentially affecting PPI recovery[2][22] - Overall, PPI recovery will depend on domestic demand restoration and changes in the international economic environment[2][22]

Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,200, up 1.0% in one day and 30.6% year-to-date [1] - The HSCEI closed at 9,328, up 0.9% in one day and 28.0% year-to-date [1] - The HSCCI closed at 4,377, up 0.6% in one day and 15.8% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI HK closed at 13,646, up 1.2% in one day and 29.2% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI CHINA closed at 86, up 0.6% in one day and 33.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 14,844, up 0.5% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 closed at 4,445, up 0.2% in one day and 13.0% year-to-date [1] - The TWSE closed at 25,193, up 1.4% in one day and 9.4% year-to-date [1] - The SENSEX closed at 81,101, up 0.4% in one day and 3.8% year-to-date [1] - The NIKKEI 225 closed at 43,838, up 0.9% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The KOSPI closed at 3,315, up 1.7% in one day and 38.1% year-to-date [1] - The ASX 200 closed at 8,805, down 0.2% in one day and up 6.4% year-to-date [1] - The DJIA closed at 45,491, down 0.5% in one day and up 6.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,532, up 0.3% in one day and 11.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE 100 closed at 9,225, down 0.2% in one day and up 12.9% year-to-date [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$68/bbl, up 1.8% in one day and down 6.2% year-to-date [2] - Gold closed at US$3,641/oz, up 0.4% in one day and 38.7% year-to-date [2] - Copper closed at US$9,914/t, unchanged in one day and up 13.1% year-to-date [2] - Aluminum closed at US$2,626/t, up 0.2% in one day and 3.9% year-to-date [2] - Nickel closed at US$14,917/t, down 0.8% in one day and 1.3% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, unchanged in one day and down 9.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,614/t, down 0.1% in one day and 5.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,420/t, down 0.1% in one day and 1.5% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,914/t, unchanged in one day and down 6.7% year-to-date [2] - The BDI index closed at 2,019, unchanged in one day and up 102.5% year-to-date [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - US Initial Jobless Claims were 237.0k, higher than the consensus of 235.0k [3] - US Continuing Jobless Claims were 1,940.0k, lower than the consensus of 1,950.0k [3] - US CPI urban consumers MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - US CPI urban consumers YoY was 2.7%, lower than the consensus of 2.9% [3] - US CPI urban consumers was 323.0, lower than the consensus of 323.9 [3] - The Univ. of Michigan Sentiment was 58.2, higher than the consensus of 58.0 [3] - US Treasury Federal Budget Deb was -$291.1 billion, better than the consensus of -$340.0 billion [3] - FOF Federal Reserve US Household was -1,594.6% [3] - US Empire State Manufacturing was 11.9, higher than the consensus of 4.9 [3] - US Import Price Index Chg was 0.4% [3] - US Import Price Index YoY was -0.2% [3] - US capacity utilization was 77.5%, higher than the consensus of 77.4% [3] - US Industrial Production MoM was -0.1%, lower than the consensus of 0.0% [3] - US Industrial Production Indus MoM was 0.0% [3] - US Manufacturing & Trade Inven Mon was 0.2%, in line with the consensus [3] - Adjusted Retail & Food Service Mon was 0.5%, higher than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - Adjusted Retail Sales Less Auto MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [3] Key BOCI Events - Zhou Liu Fu (Tencent Meeting at 10:30am) 6168.HK on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Innovative Drug Lecture - Targeting the New Future Series IX: WCLC Innovative Drug Data Interpretation (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Domestic Server Industry Landscape and Outlook (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Overseas Hard Tech Seminar: Focus on AI ASIC Chip Thermal Design (Tencent Meeting at 3:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Internet Sector Marketing (1x1) in HK on 11 - 12 Sep [4] - Tony Fei - Power Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 15 - 16 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Media Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 18 - 19 Sep [4] - Luk Fook (Tencent Meeting at 11am) 0590.HK on 25 Sep [4] - Fortior Tech 峰岹科技 (1x1, Group Lunch) 1304.HK/688279.CH on 26 Sep [4] China Economy - In August, CPI edged down 0.4% YoY after being unchanged in July, while core CPI grew 0.9% YoY, up 0.1ppt from July [5][7] - The "industrial anti-involution" policy further took effect in August, improving the prices of durable goods CPI and some raw material PPI growth [5][7] - PPI dropped 2.9% YoY in August after falling 3.6% YoY in July, and the growth trend of both CPI and PPI is expected to gradually pick up amid the low base last year, narrowing the decline of GDP deflator [6][7] Hello Group Inc - The company's rating is HOLD, with a target price of US$8.30 and a current price of US$7.88 [8] - In 2Q25, the topline was -3% YoY, meeting BOCIe. Excluding non-recurring RMB548m accrual withholding tax, adj. NPM was 17.2%, beating consensus [8] - ROI remains the top assessment benchmark for operating domestic core Momo, Tantan and overseas businesses in 2H25. The company is expected to dynamically increase the revenue sharing ratio for core Momo in 2H25 to offset the negative impact of strict tax scrutiny [9][10] - The company will implement a more prudent model for its overseas expansion in 2H25 [9][10]

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking an expansion in growth for four consecutive months [1][3] - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal increases in food prices in August, particularly due to stable prices for vegetables, pork, and fruits [1][2] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, but this was below the seasonal level by approximately 1.1 percentage points, with year-on-year food prices declining by 4.3%, which is a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month [2][3] Group 2 - The core CPI's year-on-year growth has expanded for four months, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, contributing to a stable growth in the consumer market [3][4] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising significantly, impacting the CPI positively [3] - Looking ahead, the CPI may maintain a weak trend for the year, with potential recovery towards the end of the year influenced by low base effects and policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [3][4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, countering excessive competition, and developing new growth drivers [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a flat month-on-month change and a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, influenced by falling food and energy prices [4]. - Food prices were weaker than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, below the historical average of 1.5%. Pork prices fell by 0.5%, while egg prices rose by 1.5%, both lower than historical averages [4]. - Energy prices decreased due to lower international oil prices, with transportation fuel prices down by 0.9% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [4]. - Core CPI improved, remaining flat month-on-month and increasing by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [4]. PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of recovery, with a month-on-month change from a decline of 0.2% to flat, and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [12]. - Prices for production materials improved, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, also narrowing by 1.1 percentage points [12]. - Specific industries saw price increases, such as coal processing prices rising by 9.7% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in domestic market competition [13]. Future Outlook - The outlook suggests a moderate recovery in prices, driven by the continued effects of domestic demand expansion policies and improved market competition [14]. - CPI is expected to reflect a trend of "food and energy prices declining while core inflation rises," with seasonal factors likely to support a decrease in food prices [15]. - PPI may enter a recovery phase, supported by ongoing policy measures against excessive competition and improvements in export structures [15].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased to -0.4%, down from 0.0% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change remained flat at 0.0%[1] - The core CPI year-on-year rose to 0.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months of acceleration[2] - The average month-on-month CPI for August 2023-2024 was 0.35%, significantly lower than historical averages[2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's drop of 3.6%[1] - The month-on-month PPI change turned flat, ending an eight-month downward trend, indicating a positive effect from anti-involution policies[2] - The improvement in PPI is contingent on the recovery of domestic demand and international commodity price trends[3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The weak CPI performance in August was primarily due to food and energy price pressures, while the core CPI showed improvement driven by policy-induced consumer activity[3] - The narrowing decline in PPI and the stabilization of key industrial product prices, such as coal and steel, suggest early signs of stabilization in production[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies, unexpected changes in interest rates, and concentrated credit events[3]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August, with a month-on-month change of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][4] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [1][2] - The tail effect from last year's price changes contributed approximately -0.9 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI in August, with a downward impact that expanded by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, but this was 1.1 percentage points below seasonal levels, with significant year-on-year declines in pork, eggs, and fresh vegetables [4] Food Price Dynamics - Year-on-year food prices decreased by 4.3%, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing an additional 0.51 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [4] - Specific declines included pork prices down 16.1%, fresh vegetables down 15.2%, and eggs down 14.2%, all showing an increase in downward pressure on CPI compared to the previous month [4] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects ongoing consumer demand and the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices increasing significantly [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the CPI may remain weak throughout the year, with potential recovery towards the end of the year due to low base effects and supportive policies [6] - The impact of consumption-boosting policies is expected to further support prices of major goods in September [6]

Group 1 - The overall consumption market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month changed from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to being flat [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases this month [1] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month in August, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the seasonal level [1] - The PPI ended an eight-month downward trend, with improvements in supply-demand relationships leading to price increases in some energy and raw material sectors [1] - The year-on-year PPI decreased by 2.9%, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first narrowing since March of this year [1]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - The national Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The core CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in consumer prices driven by effective consumption-boosting policies [2][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases, with food prices dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The impact of previous price changes on the current CPI was approximately -0.9 percentage points, with a downward influence that increased by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Group 3: PPI and Industry Price Changes - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of 2.9%, the smallest drop since March, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - Prices in industries such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing saw reduced year-on-year declines, reflecting a positive shift in market conditions [5] Group 4: Emerging Industries and Consumption Trends - New industries are experiencing growth, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing rising by 1.1% year-on-year, driven by technological and industrial innovation [6] - Increased demand for quality consumption is leading to price increases in specific sectors, such as a 13.0% rise in the price of arts and crafts products and a 4.7% increase in sports equipment manufacturing [7]

Group 1 - The consumer market in China remained generally stable in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, saw a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion in its growth rate [1] - Prices for industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - Key categories such as grain, pork, and eggs showed overall sufficient supply, with prices decreasing by 1%, 16%, and 14% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Prices for beef and aquatic products increased, with year-on-year growth rates of 4% and 2% [1] - In the household goods and services sector, appliance consumption grew rapidly, with home appliance prices rising by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers remained unchanged month-on-month in August, ending an eight-month downward trend [2] - The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March of this year [2]

Group 1 - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has contributed to the stabilization of PPI, with energy and raw material prices showing signs of recovery [2][3] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been expanded, providing significant support for prices of covered goods, with transportation tool prices stabilizing month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [2] - Service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in August, indicating the release of service consumption potential [2] - The overall low price level since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth-stabilizing policies [3][4]