Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, emphasizes that individuals are exercising patience in their investment decisions due to policy uncertainty [1] Group 1 - There is no evidence indicating that declining sentiment is affecting consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Toyoaki Nakamura, suggests that rushing to raise interest rates may negatively impact consumer spending, indicating that maintaining policy stability is currently appropriate [1] Group 1 - The urgency to increase interest rates could lead to a decline in consumer expenditure [1] - Maintaining a stable policy is deemed suitable at this time [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines last week, with the Dow Jones down 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.47%, and the Nasdaq down 0.27% [2][3]. Economic Indicators - This week, the U.S. will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which will provide insights into the latest inflation trends [4]. - The April retail sales data will also be published, indicating whether consumer spending remains robust [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - On May 8, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to discuss monetary policy assessments on May 15, coinciding with the release of retail sales data [5]. Corporate Earnings - The earnings reports for the first quarter are ongoing, with retail giant Walmart set to release its financial results before the market opens on Thursday [5]. - Chinese concept stocks, including Alibaba, are also expected to announce their latest performance this week [5].

Economic Data Summary - The US GDP for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis, marking the first negative growth since Q2 2022, contrasting sharply with a 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 [1] - The decline in GDP raises concerns about the future trajectory of the US economy, with significant fluctuations noted [1] Reasons for Economic Decline - Increased imports due to tariff policy expectations have disrupted the domestic economic balance, as companies rushed to import goods to avoid future costs [1] - Weak consumer spending, driven by slow income growth, rising prices, and low consumer confidence, has directly impacted economic growth [1] - Reduced corporate investment due to uncertainty in the economic outlook has negatively affected both individual companies and overall economic growth [1] Market Reactions - Following the disappointing economic data, US stock indices fell sharply, with the Nasdaq index dropping as much as 3% before recovering slightly [2] - Investor panic led to significant stock sell-offs, reflecting a prevailing sense of fear in the market [2] Federal Reserve's Influence - A sudden dovish signal from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential early interest rate cuts provided a boost to the market, leading to a dramatic recovery in stock prices [3] - The Nasdaq index managed to narrow its losses to just 0.09%, while the Dow Jones index turned positive with a 0.35% increase [3] Investor Sentiment - The volatility in the market has tested investor psychology, particularly affecting retail investors who sold off stocks during the early downturn only to miss out on subsequent gains [3] - The situation highlights the complexities and uncertainties inherent in financial markets [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about a potential recession as President Trump's second term begins [1] - Some Wall Street economists have revised their GDP forecasts to negative growth due to unexpected increases in imports driven by inventory accumulation by businesses and consumers [1] - Imports negatively impacted GDP by over 5 percentage points, while exports grew by 1.8% [1] Economic Indicators - Personal consumption expenditures grew by 1.8%, marking the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, down from 4% in the previous quarter [1] - Private domestic investment saw a significant increase of 21.9% [1]