Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 8, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 92,460 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.76% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 599,367 lots, and the open interest was 593,129 lots, compared to 560,676 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was -610 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 13,120 lots, a change of 2,198 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 91,100 - 94,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 89,900 - 90,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,173 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - Downstream material factories made bargain purchases, but as the futures price gradually increased, their purchasing willingness returned to a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to remain strong; the energy storage market will continue the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern will remain. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, in the context of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but the magnitude will slow down compared to November [2]. Group 3: Company News - On December 4, 2025, Guoxuan High - Tech (002074) stated on the investor platform that the G - Yuan quasi - solid - state battery had completed relevant testing work and started verification work. The Jinshi all - solid - state battery achieved the landing of the pilot production line and internal vehicle road tests in the first half of this year, and is currently promoting the design work of the 2GWh mass - production line. Guoxuan's first all - solid - state 0.2GWh experimental line was officially connected, and the yield rate of this production line reached 90% through the application of key technologies such as high - precision coating [3]. Group 4: Strategy - The intraday trading was volatile, inventory was continuously destocked, and consumption provided some support. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to resume gradually in the future. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the power battery segment will decline, while the energy storage segment will remain high. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. The short - term strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Carbonate lithium futures rose. The expected resumption of the Jianxiawo mine did not happen. With the spot price remaining firm, the downward pressure on carbonate lithium is limited. Although the weekly destocking volume of carbonate lithium has been declining since late November and the weekly production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased last week, considering market sentiment and spot support, the futures price of lithium is expected to rise slightly with fluctuations, but it is unlikely to break the previous high in the short term [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures increased. The 01 contract quickly rebounded after falling below 90,000 in the morning. The spot price dropped by 500 to 92,750, the discount in the trading market remained the same, Australian ore rose by 15 to 1,172.5, lithium mica rose by 20 to 2,535, ternary materials rose by 0 - 50, lithium iron phosphate fell by 120 - 125, and electrolyte rose by 500. The upward price trend in the industrial chain continued [9] Group 5: Industry News - Rio Tinto tightened its lithium business expansion plan, limiting investment in ongoing projects. It aims to achieve an annual capacity of about 200,000 tons by 2028, down from the previous guidance of 225,000 tons. The company is confident in the long - term lithium demand, especially in the grid energy storage field, but will prioritize existing projects and control capital expenditure [13] - Dazhong Mining announced that the Jijiaoshan lithium mine has a resource volume of about 490 million tons, corresponding to about 3.24 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The designed open - pit mining scale is 20 million tons per year, with an expected annual output of about 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The company obtained the mining license in October this year with a 30 - year validity [13]

2025 年 12 月 8 日 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 90,760 | -1,500 | -3,880 | -260 | 11,620 | 12,440 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 97,060 | -4,918 | -46,207 | -1,040,764 | -418,671 | 11,650 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 208,282 | 5,063 | -55,422 | -203,045 | -244,978 | 80,180 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and market sentiment fluctuates due to news. The lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 88,900 - 92,620. The supply is expected to increase next month, and demand is expected to strengthen with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened [8][9][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, production was 95,350 tons, and next - month's forecast is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. November's import was 25,500 tons, and next - month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,681 tons, a 0.63% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,842 tons, a 2.68% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 93,764 yuan/ton, a 0.52% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,559 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 92,638 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a loss of 2,982 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Market Factors**: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors are the high and limited - decline supply from the ore and salt - lake ends [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. - **Basis**: On December 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 1,090 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 113,602 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory was 20,767 tons, a 14.62% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,695 tons, a 4.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventory was 49,140 tons, a 1.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. Neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. 3.3 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices and bases of different indicators showed various changes, with most prices decreasing and bases showing different degrees of increase or decrease. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4.80% to 10,922 lots [16]. - **Upstream Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.69% to 1,154 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% to 90,800 yuan/ton [16]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some increasing slightly and some decreasing slightly [16]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - side**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly total production was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase. The production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling all increased to varying degrees [19]. - **Demand - side**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 412,850 tons, a 4.69% increase. The monthly production of ternary precursor decreased in some types. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 90,380 - 94,140 yuan/ton. The overall evaluation of the fundamentals, basis, and inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [10][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,341 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,361 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][10]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,255 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, and the production income is - 1,559 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.26%, and the production income is - 2,247 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: On December 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.81%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.51%, higher than the historical average. The other inventory was 49,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 115,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [10][11]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.53% to 1,162 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.76% to 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.37% to 94,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.38% to 91,550 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous period. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 94,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13%. The monthly processing cost was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, an increase of 3.35% [20]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 76%, an increase of 5.56%. The monthly production was 348,500 tons, an increase of 5.14%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 59.72%, an increase of 12.11%. The monthly production was 412,850 tons, an increase of 4.69% [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years [28]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of dynamic balance, with different balance values in each month [31]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) and the total operating rate have shown fluctuations over time. The production of lithium carbonate has also changed accordingly [34]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticization) and the total production have also shown different trends [43]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [46]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled materials, and the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and causticization have all shown different trends over time [49][50][54]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other sectors have changed, with the overall inventory showing a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [11][56]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelting sectors have also changed [56]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Shipment: The price of batteries, the monthly production of battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries have all shown different trends over time [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), the processing fee, the capacity utilization rate, the capacity, and the monthly production have all changed [65]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of ternary precursors have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [68]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, the weekly operating rate, the capacity, the production, the processing fee, the export volume, the import volume, and the weekly inventory have all changed [71][73]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity, the monthly operating rate, the monthly production, and the weekly inventory have all changed [75][78][80]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have all changed over time [83][84][87].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 93,700 yuan/ton, with a -1.26% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 663,458 lots, and the open interest was 560,629 lots, down from 562,836 lots the previous day. The current basis was 760 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 10,422 lots, a change of 770 lots from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,200 - 95,800 yuan/ton, a change of -350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,500 - 92,600 yuan/ton, also a change of -350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,175 US dollars/ton, a change of -30 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The downstream material factories' inquiry and trading activities are becoming more active. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are still ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2] - In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, new energy vehicle sales in December are expected to be strong, and the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand with a tight supply situation. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain high but decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking rate will slow down compared to November [2] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, the production from spodumene and mica slightly increased, and the production from salt lakes slightly decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,366 tons to 113,602 tons. The inventory in smelters and other links decreased, while the inventory in downstream links increased, and the consumer end still performed well [2] Group 3: Strategy - The market fluctuated widely on the day, inventory continued to be destocked, and consumption provided some support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress and is expected to gradually resume. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with expected decreases in the power battery segment and high levels in the energy storage segment. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory [3] - For the single - side strategy, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate market on December 3, 2025, and predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the next one to two weeks. The supply is expanding steadily, the demand is relatively stable, the inventory is being depleted but at a slower pace, and the market is divided, resulting in limited downward space but insufficient upward driving force for the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton, and investors need to pay attention to the progress of the annual long - term agreement negotiation and inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day, continuing the oscillating downward trend; the basis strengthened significantly to 440 yuan/ton, a 2,900 - yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract expanded to 562,836 lots, an increase of 10,597 lots from the previous day, indicating increased market participation; the trading volume expanded significantly to 643,323 lots, an increase of 189,033 lots from the previous day, with accelerated capital inflow [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On December 3, 2025, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,180 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 75.34%. As of November 28, the Lijiagou lithium mine project of Chuanneng Power had basically reached full production. With the gradual commissioning of new production lines, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply side will expand slightly [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, in November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year - on - year and the wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year, with the cumulative sales increasing by 20% - 29% year - on - year, supporting a bright demand expectation in December. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59% to 171,000 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remained stable, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% to 39,485 yuan/ton. The information shows that the cell production schedule is at a high level but slightly declined month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the transaction price is concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation focuses on next year's price and procurement volume [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On December 3, 2025, the inventory dropped to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down, but the overall supply - demand pattern is tight, especially in the energy storage market, which maintains a situation of strong supply and demand [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a 117.89% increase from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 562,836 lots, a 1.92% increase from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 643,323 lots, a 41.61% increase from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 94,100 yuan/ton, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59%, the price of power - type ternary materials remained stable, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% [5]. - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 75.34%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 physical tons, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 2.37%, the price of 523 square ternary cells remained stable, the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained stable, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained stable, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 1.34% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On December 3, 2025, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,719 yuan/ton, a 145 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,350 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 91,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated downward, with the main contract in the range of 92,500 - 97,600 yuan/ton and a closing price of 93,700 yuan/ton. Affected by the news, the futures price on the disk dropped to 92,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the actual market transaction price is mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still bright; the energy storage market continues the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain at a high level in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. In general, against the background of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be de - stocked in December, but the amplitude will be smaller than that in November [6]. 3.3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, from November 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.354 million, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 6% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.504 million, a 20% year - on - year increase; from November 1 to 30, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 13.777 million, a 29% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3.3 Industry News - On November 28, 2025, Chuanneng Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 38.812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, the price of ternary precursor, the price of ternary materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, the inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of cells, with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][14][16][17][18][21][23].

2025 年 12 月 4 日 碳酸锂：区间震荡，关注大厂复产实际进展 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 92,060 | -2,800 | -2,440 | -7,240 | 9,780 | 13,360 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 113,357 | 40,161 | -249,298 | -1,654,071 | -473,311 | 20,378 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 216,232 | -21,150 | -86,470 | -286,900 | -308,952 | 91,763 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价） | 93,660 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The price of the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,240 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][10][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 tons, and it is predicted to reach 27,000 tons next month, a 13.06% increase [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan/ton, a 1.67% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,012 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 94,750 yuan/ton, a 0.24% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 4,604 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On December 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,590 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The smelter inventory decreased by 6.81% to 24,324 tons, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 5.51% to 41,984 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventories increased by 3.72% to 49,660 tons, higher than the historical average; the total inventory decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 tons, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, with an increase in short positions [12]. - **Positive Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production, and the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile has decreased on a month - on - month basis [13]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 93,750 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and processing costs of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium spodumene increased by 5.14% to 348,500 tons, and the daily production cost increased by 1.67% to 93,461 yuan/ton [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production, inventory, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and other products have also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.69% to 412,850 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.71% to 104,341 tons [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price, production, and import volume of lithium ore have changed over time. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have shown different trends [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The operating rate, production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate have been analyzed. The operating rate and production of different sources of lithium carbonate (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) have changed, and the import volume from different countries has also fluctuated [31][32][38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide have been studied. The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [40][43]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate, have been analyzed. Different production methods and raw materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has been monitored. The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, and the overall inventory has changed. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [53][55]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries have been analyzed. The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the production, shipment, and export volume have changed over time [56][57]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have been studied. The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance have also shown different trends [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost - profit, production, import - export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have been analyzed. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, import - export volume, and inventory have also fluctuated [67][68][70]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have been studied. The price and production cost have changed, and the production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [72][74][75]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have been analyzed. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [79][80][81].