Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots, but funds have not returned. Spot prices are more resistant to decline than futures. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand in this field. In the short term, futures prices will move closer to spot prices. The speculation on the mining end is unlikely to materialize in the short term. Due to the supply inflection point and continuous inventory reduction, the spot is firm, and it is difficult for futures prices to break through the lower limit. Futures prices are expected to rebound [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots. The spot price dropped by 400 to 80,500, showing resistance to decline compared to futures. Australian ore dropped by 20, mica ore dropped by 30, ternary materials remained flat, lithium iron phosphate dropped by 90 - 100, and the electrolyte rose by 600 - 1250. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand. Futures prices are expected to rebound due to the weak follow - up decline of the spot and the firm spot under the influence of supply and inventory factors [9] 2. Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 43,000 tons of carbonate lithium in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September, laying a foundation for further capacity expansion [12] - Hainan Mining revealed that the CIF cost of 5.5% grade lithium concentrate from its Buguni lithium mine transported to Hainan is about $750/ton. Its lithium hydroxide products are undergoing certification and sample testing with domestic and foreign customers, and relevant government approvals are in progress. The company also announced a technical renovation plan to add carbonization and potassium removal facilities at the back - end of the existing 20,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line. After the renovation, which takes about half a year, it can flexibly convert part of the capacity to produce battery - grade carbonate lithium, achieving a product combination of "20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide" or "10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide + 8,000 tons of carbonate lithium" to respond to market changes and improve profitability [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,080 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.60% [8]. - In October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 22,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.73%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased on a daily basis and was lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, down 1.07% week-on-week and higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next month's forecast is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and next month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 104,979 tons, up 0.61% week-on-week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, up 1.60% week-on-week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased and was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 78,943 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.86%, with a profit of 425 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 82,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.82%, with a loss of -5,412 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,080 - 80,200 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis of most contracts decreased. The prices of upstream raw materials such as lithium ore and lithium carbonate also changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month, a 5.73% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 520,514 tons, an increase of 49,915 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.61% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.90 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons compared to the previous month, a -10.30% decrease [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate of various products increased to varying degrees. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, an increase of 37,600 tons compared to the previous month, a 10.54% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials increased to varying degrees. The monthly total battery loading volume was 76,000 GWh, an increase of 13,500 GWh compared to the previous month, a 21.60% increase [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts first rose and then declined, breaking through 80,000 yuan/ton. The 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 80,780 yuan/ton, up 1,260 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 5,150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 80,550 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals show that the de - stocking speed has accelerated. The price of lithium ore has increased significantly, the inventory has decreased, the weekly output has decreased, and the start - up rate has declined. From July to November, the energy storage demand has exceeded market expectations, but there are concerns about a seasonal decline in power demand from December to February of the next year [2]. - In the short term, the price is expected to enter a correction state, but the long - term outlook for next year remains positive. The trading logic should shift to the decline in the total demand during the power off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [8]. 2. Upstream Supply of Lithium Salts - Lithium Ore - Figures show the processing spot and disk profits of spodumene concentrate and the average price trend of spodumene concentrate. The data sources include Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [8]. - There are also figures on the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with the same data sources [9]. 3. Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salts - Lithium Salt Products - Multiple figures display various aspects of lithium salt products, such as the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost. The data sources are Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10]. - Figures also show the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (including battery - grade and industrial - grade), the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by raw material and region, the weekly production volume and start - up rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly start - up rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants. The data sources are the same as above [10][11][12]. 4. Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salts - Lithium Batteries and Materials - Figures present the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, the available days of lithium carbonate inventory, the monthly production volume and start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production volume and start - up rate of ternary materials (including various types), the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of domestic power lithium batteries (including various types). The data sources are Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [13][14]. Trading Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: A correction is expected, and the price of the futures main contract is predicted to range between 70,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - period Trading**: Not recommended, as the upward movement of the unilateral price weakens the basis, but the inventory is expected to continue to be de - stocked [5]. - **Hedging**: It is recommended to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid - shaped manner [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, suggesting a "moderately strong" outlook [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of high - level spot bidding and is expected to run strongly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 80,800, with a change of - 320 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 64,993, down 4,495 from T - 1, and the open interest was 36,653, a decrease of 12,932 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 81,640, down 260 from T - 1. The trading volume was 729,307, an increase of 214,852 from T - 1, and the open interest was 488,803, up 5,325 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,335, a decrease of 404 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 2,300, and that of spot - 2601 was - 3,140. The basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 840 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925, up 19 from T - 1. The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,065, up 75 from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500, up 1,950 from T - 1. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300, up 2,000 from T - 1 [1]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,553 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,958 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous workday, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: Chery Automobile announced a purchase tax subsidy plan, and currently, 10 brands have announced similar plans [2][4]. - **Mining Rights**: A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - **Disk and Position**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data Overview**: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant price movements in both spot and long-term contracts [1] Price Summary - The current price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 79,500 yuan per ton [1] - The average price for long-term contracts of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 72,500 yuan per ton [1] - The hydroxide lithium index is at 4,333 yuan per ton [1] - The metal lithium index stands at 582,500 yuan per ton [1] Market Dynamics - The spot market for lithium carbonate continues to show a trend of price increases, indicating a bullish sentiment among market participants [1] - The current basis index for the Fubao electric carbon spot market is reported at -340 yuan per ton, reflecting market conditions [1]

2025 年 10 月 27 日 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注中美磋商结果 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 78,920 | -460 | 3,220 | 6,180 | 5,740 | 13,080 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 103,581 | 764 | -262,794 | -191,202 | -396,686 | 51,033 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 64,402 | -21,625 | -94,5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The recent futures market rebound is mainly influenced by news disturbances and consumption support. Currently, the total inventory is being reduced, and there are many disturbances in the supply - side such as delayed resumption of production and shutdown news. The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, and the inventory is continuously decreasing, providing some support for the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. As the policy disturbances at the mine end weaken, and if the inventory inflection point appears, the market may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 76,000 yuan/ton and closed at 77,120 yuan/ton, with a 1.63% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 376,449 lots, and the open interest was 353,231 lots, up from 310,199 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 1,950 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 29,019 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,500 - 72,700 yuan/ton, also up 250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 865 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream material factories are taking a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and the overall market trading activity is dull [1]. - New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - Customs data shows that the monthly import of spodumene increased significantly month - on - month, reaching 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe together contributed 81.1% of the total import volume. Australia imported 347,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 64.1%; Nigeria imported about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; Zimbabwe imported 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. In addition, imports from South Africa increased significantly to 109,000 tons, while there were no arriving ore volumes from Mali in September [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [4]. - **Spot - futures**: None [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamental data of lithium carbonate and provides information on macro and industry news, as well as the trend strength of lithium carbonate [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 76,780, with a change of 1,200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 113,005, and the open interest was 100,619 [2] - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 77,120, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 376,449, and the open interest was 353,231 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 29,019, a decrease of 873 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -2,430, and between spot and 2601 contract was -2,770. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -340 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,845 [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,350, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,100 [2] - **Related Products**: The prices of various related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte were also provided [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,363 yuan/ton, up 253 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 7.435 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 7.21 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [3] - Lithium spodumene imports increased significantly by 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe contributed 81.1% of the total imports. Australia's imports were 347,000 tons, up 64.1%; Nigeria's were about 120,000 tons, up 14.4%; and Zimbabwe's were 109,000 tons, down 7.8%. South Africa's imports reached 109,000 tons, while Mali had no arrivals in September [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On October 21, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market was mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and the discount widened. With both supply and demand strong currently, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, the downstream destocking is slowing down, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Price Data - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On October 21, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75800 yuan/ton, 75580 yuan/ton, 75980 yuan/ton, and 75980 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 197,979 lots (+28,871), and the open interest of the active contract was 310,199 lots (+171,765). The inventory was 29,892 tons (-813) [1]. - **Lithium Ore and Related Products**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 854 US dollars/ton (+3), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1115 yuan/ton (+15), and lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1845 yuan/ton (+20). The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton, and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 7520 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Chemical Products**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,100 yuan/ton (+100), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 71,850 yuan/ton (+100). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.45 US dollars/kg (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Products**: The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95%/domestic) was 82,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 102,650 yuan/ton (+100) [1]. 2. Market Information - Sigma Lithium canceled its plan to start producing lithium carbonate in Brazil and instead focused on tripling its lithium ore production by 2030. As prices decline, market participants are shifting to mid - stream processing to ensure stable production of raw materials and precursors, which are the main cost - driving factors for electric vehicle batteries [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and lithium ore prices such as spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in October [1]. 4. Inventory Situation - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons (-2,143), with smelters and downstream sectors destocking [1]. 5. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to sell short at the upper edge of the short - term trading range [1].