1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The game between reality and expectations in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, leading to increased volatility in the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan; the trading volume was 55,748 lots, and the open interest was 65,157 lots. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan; the trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,660 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,720 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 60 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 951 US dollars, down 27 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan, unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - In July, lithium ore imports were 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%. Imports from Australia were 427,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.24%, with an average price of 631.35 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.16% [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, closing at the limit down due to a combination of rumors and expectations of production resumption [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and closed at a limit down, with the main contract priced at 80,980 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The market was influenced by multiple rumors, including the resumption of production by Yichun Silver Lithium and the transfer of Australian lithium concentrate to China [1][3]. - Despite the drop, analysts noted that the actual impact of these rumors on the market fundamentals was limited, indicating that the market was more affected by short-term news [3][5]. Group 2: Production and Supply Insights - Yichun Silver Lithium announced its resumption of production, which had been halted for equipment maintenance since July 25, with a previous monthly output of 1,300 tons [3]. - Current domestic lithium ore inventories are sufficient, with traders holding approximately 27.8 million tons of lithium concentrate, which corresponds to 28 days of supply [4]. - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate remains tight, with recent data showing a slight reduction in inventories across various stages of the supply chain [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop may be an overreaction, with potential upward price movement expected due to tightening supply and regulatory scrutiny [6][7]. - The market is currently in a seasonal demand peak, which could provide support for prices despite the recent volatility [7]. - Long-term supply increases from projects in Africa, South America, and domestic salt lakes are anticipated, but these will take time to materialize [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 18, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The market showed rigid - demand procurement, and the basis discount widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, with the profit margin expanding, lithium carbonate production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, it is necessary to guard against the "reversal" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The operation suggestion is short - term range operation and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: On August 18, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 89,300.00 yuan/ton, 89,280.00 yuan/ton, 89,240.00 yuan/ton, and 89,240.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to previous days [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures on August 18 was 1,036,328.00 lots, an increase of 167,517.00 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 421,106.00 lots, an increase of 19,967.00 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on August 18 was 23,555.00 tons, an increase of 70.00 tons from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 20.00 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 40.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was - 4,640.00 yuan/ton on August 18 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978.00 US dollars/ton on August 18, an increase of 38.00 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,385.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 84,600.00 yuan/ton on August 18, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 82,300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - based materials, and negative electrode materials also showed different degrees of changes [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Information - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons in total, with the inventory of smelters at 49,693 tons, showing a decreasing trend [3] - **Demand**: In the downstream, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The production of cobalt - based lithium decreased in August, while the production of manganese - based lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.4 Company News - Nengdongli stated on the interactive platform on August 18 that since the self - operation of its Lijiagou lithium mine, the operation has been good, and it is currently in the production - capacity climbing stage. De'ayi Industry successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium salts in July 2025 [3] - Australian Covalent Lithium Company started producing lithium hydroxide at its 50,000 - ton/year Kwinana refinery on August 15, confirming that the commissioning has entered the trial - production stage, but its expansion plan has been shelved [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state where supply exceeds demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.16%. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,343 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.99%, with a profit of 1,069 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.33%, with a loss of 4,968 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [8]. - **Basis**: On August 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%, and the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production next month will be 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume next month will be 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. The price of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed varying degrees of increase, while the basis of most products showed a negative value and a certain degree of decline [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of anhydrous iron phosphate decreased slightly [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production and import volume of lithium ore showed different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of lithium ore in ports also changed [21]. - **Lithium Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2024 to 2025 are shown, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling) are presented, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [26][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are shown [34][37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - Out - sourced spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations. The processing cost components of lepidolite and spodumene, as well as the import profit of lithium carbonate, are also presented [40][43][46]. - The cost - profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and different production methods of lithium hydroxide are shown [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods and from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) is presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries are shown [52][54]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented [57][60]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials are shown [63][65]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [67][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles are shown [75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,000 - 88,800 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month production is predicted to be 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,952 yuan/ton, a 0.28% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,579 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 84,292 yuan/ton, a 0.69% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,868 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral [9]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. Bullish [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [11]. - **Positive factors**: Manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [12]. - **Negative factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [17]. - **Supply - demand data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.36%, and the monthly production increased by 9.70% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices**: Lithium ore prices have shown fluctuations over the years [24]. - **Production**: The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has changed over different years [24]. - **Imports**: Lithium concentrate imports have fluctuated, with imports from Australia and other regions varying [24]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has shown different situations in different months and years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) has changed over time [29]. - **Production**: Lithium carbonate production has shown an upward or fluctuating trend over different years and months [29]. - **Imports**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [29]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months and years [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over different years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) has changed [37]. - **Exports**: China's lithium hydroxide export volume has shown an upward trend over different years [37]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months and years [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost - profit of different raw materials**: The cost - profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production has changed over time [43][46][49]. - **Processing cost - profit**: The cost - profit of processing lithium hydroxide from different forms (coarse - grained to fine - grained), and the cost - profit of various lithium compound conversion processes have changed [49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed over time [51]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices**: The prices of lithium batteries have changed over time [55]. - **Production**: The monthly production of power cells and energy - storage cells has changed [55]. - **Exports**: The export volume of lithium batteries has shown an upward trend over different years [55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices**: The prices of ternary precursors have changed over time [60]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different series has changed [60]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has shown different situations in different months and years [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices**: The prices of ternary materials have changed over time [66]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of ternary materials has changed [66]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over different years [66]. - **Exports and imports**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Prices**: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time [70]. - **Cost - profit**: The cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium has changed [70]. - **Production**: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed [73]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has shown an upward trend over different years [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) has changed over different years [78]. - **Exports**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend over different years [78]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrids and pure - electric vehicles) and the sales penetration rate have changed over different years [78][79]. - **Inventory indicators**: The retail - wholesale ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over different years [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is in a state of over - supply due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][12]. - Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut and suspension plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [10]. - Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 79,732 yuan/ton, a 0.88% daily increase, with a production profit of 1,114 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 83,715 yuan/ton, a 1.26% daily increase, with a production loss of 4,942 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 44,280 tons, a 2.36% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase; in July 2025, the lithium carbonate import volume was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83380 - 87220 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, a 1.23% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase from the previous value. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, and the production from different sources such as spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake showed different trends [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase from the previous value. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 30,990 tons (622 type), a 7.08% increase from the previous value. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased, with the lithium iron phosphate loading volume increasing by 1.87% and the ternary battery loading volume decreasing by 5.27% [17]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease. The smelter inventory decreased by 2.56%, and the downstream inventory increased by 0.26% [17]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds vary. For example, the production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate was 1,114 yuan/ton, while the production of purchased lithium mica resulted in a loss of 4,942 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The auction price of lithium carbonate is slightly at a discount to the market, and the range - bound trend may continue [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 85,040 yuan, the trading volume is 75,743, and the open interest is 108,394. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 85,100 yuan, the trading volume is 1,245,424, and the open interest is 392,675. The warehouse receipt volume is 21,679 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 4,040 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 4,100 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 60 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 2,200 yuan, and spot - CIF is 12,474 yuan [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 926 US dollars, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,030 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 77,110 yuan, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton [2]. - On August 13, Albemarle's battery - grade lithium carbonate auction ended. 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were auctioned, with成交 prices of 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Ganfeng International will jointly develop the Pozuelos - Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina with LAR [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Due to capacity mismatch, the situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 80,700 - 84,340 [8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, with a 13.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,176 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 5,942 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter's inventory was 50,999 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a 4.95% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 physical tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Sustained high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 840 to 910 US dollars/ton, a 8.33% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 74,500 to 78,000 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore** - Production Costs: The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% increase; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% increase [17]. - Production and Import: In July 2025, the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, and the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production and Supply: The weekly operating rate was 45.58%, a 2.77% decrease. The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a 2.94% increase [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery** - Production and Sales: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase [17]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production and Sales: The production was 1,268,000 vehicles, a 0.16% decrease; the sales were 1.329 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total weekly inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% increase. The smelter's inventory decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 4.95% week - on - week [8][17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The weekly inventory data is not provided comprehensively, but the monthly inventory data shows certain trends in different periods [17].

Group 1 - On August 11, lithium carbonate stocks surged collectively, with companies like Tianqi Lithium, Jiangte Motor, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit, while others like Defang Nano and Zhongkuang Resources also saw gains [1] - CATL announced on August 11 that it has suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9, but the overall impact on the company's operations is minimal [1] - The lithium carbonate futures market saw the main contract open at a limit increase, priced at 81,000 yuan/ton, influenced by various supply-side factors including regulatory expectations and production suspensions [2] Group 2 - Since July 21, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated significantly, rising from 69,400 yuan/ton to around 79,500 yuan/ton, before dropping back to approximately 67,000 yuan/ton due to market adjustments [2] - The Yichun mining area has a recoverable reserve of 77,492 million tons, with a construction investment of 2.158 billion yuan and a service life of 25.83 years based on a production scale of 30 million tons per year [2] - Analysts believe that the suspension of operations in multiple lithium mines in Jiangxi could impact the supply of 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month, potentially driving prices higher during the traditional peak season from September to November [2][3] Group 3 - Demand expectations remain strong, but there is a lack of imagination regarding overall demand growth for the second half of the year [3] - If only one mine is suspended, the domestic supply shortage may be less than market expectations, with potential monthly shortages of several thousand tons from August to October [3] - The lithium sector is currently experiencing a short-term bullish trend due to the suspension of operations at CATL's Yichun mine, with market uncertainty regarding potential further suspensions [3] Group 4 - Tianqi Lithium is the second-largest lithium producer in China, covering the entire lithium battery supply chain from mining to deep processing [3] - Ganfeng Lithium is the largest lithium compound producer in China and the third-largest globally, also a key supplier of lithium hexafluorophosphate [3] - Other notable companies include Yahua Group, which has significant lithium product processing capabilities, and Salt Lake Industry, which has substantial lithium reserves in the Qarhan Salt Lake [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is affected by disturbances in the mining end, and the market is volatile. Participants need to manage risks, and the market is expected to have a preliminary conclusion on domestic lithium mine approval next week [3] - The downstream procurement demand shows a warming trend, but the actual transaction is mainly for rigid demand, and downstream enterprises are still cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,900 yuan/ton and closed at 72,300 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 5.36% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 766,669 lots, and the open interest was 289,832 lots (257,770 lots the previous day). The current basis is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,443 lots, a change of 1,420 lots from the previous trading day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,500 - 72,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 68,400 - 69,600 yuan/ton, both with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 6% lithium concentrate price is 750 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The procurement demand in the market shows a warming trend, but the actual transaction is mainly for rigid demand due to the strengthening basis, and downstream enterprises are still in a wait - and - see state [1] Production and Inventory - The weekly production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with a large increase in the production from spodumene. The weekly inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons, and the downstream inventory increased significantly, with a certain transfer of inventory [2] Strategy - The lithium carbonate futures market is repeatedly affected by lithium mine approval issues. There is no official news yet, and it is expected that there will be a preliminary conclusion next week. The market may still be volatile, and participants need to manage risks [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]