2025年6月5日夜，北京与华盛顿的热线再度接通。特朗普在通话后热情洋溢地宣布"欢迎中国留学生赴 美学习"，试图营造两国关系回暖的假象。然而，中方通稿中对特朗普提出的核心诉求——放宽稀土出 口管制——却只字未提。这一"热情的邀请"与"战略性的沉默"形成鲜明对比，揭开了美国在贸易战中被 迫服软的底色：当中国握紧稀土这张"工业命脉"王牌时，强如特朗普也不得不低头示好。而中国的沉 默，恰是对美国"阴招使尽"后最犀利的回应：服软不够，诚意待验！ 一、通话背后的美国困局：内忧外患下的"战略乞和" - 民生代价爆炸：牙膏巨头高露洁预警"关税致成本激增、盈利锐减"；英特尔因"贸易政策不稳定"裁员2 万人；玩具商"教学资源"被迫支付1亿美元关税（暴涨44倍），最终起诉美国政府。美国药物进口成本 因关税年增510亿美元，药品价格或上涨12.9%。 残酷现实：当特朗普在通话中堆砌"善意"辞藻时，美国正深陷三重绝境——内政撕裂、外交孤立、民生 反噬。所谓"服软"，不过是危机倒逼下的求生本能。 1. 内政崩盘：资本反噬与经济衰退倒计时 - "特马大战"重创市场信心：就在通话前48小时，特朗普与马斯克彻底决裂。马斯克公开支持弹劾特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urgency of the U.S. inquiring about the lifting of China's rare earth export controls reflects the deep impact of China's policies on U.S. strategic industries and highlights the U.S. position in the ongoing China-U.S. competition [1][5]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Dominance - China holds the largest global reserves of rare earth elements and has a complete industrial chain, controlling 61% of global production and supplying 92% of refined rare earths and 99% of heavy rare earths [1][2]. - The unique advantage in the rare earth sector has led to a legal monopoly for China, making U.S. and other Western industries heavily reliant on Chinese supplies [1][2]. Group 2: U.S. Industry Vulnerabilities - The military sector, particularly the F-35 fighter jet, relies on China for approximately 87% of its rare earth supply, posing a risk of production halts if supplies are restricted [2][5]. - The renewable energy sector, exemplified by Tesla's humanoid robot project, is also facing challenges due to rare earth shortages, reflecting a broader issue across high-tech industries in the U.S. [2][5]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Strategy - The U.S. has attempted to negotiate with China, with claims of a commitment from China to lift export restrictions, but no actual changes have been observed from the Chinese side [4][5]. - The U.S. is exploring tariff reductions as a bargaining chip to persuade China to ease export controls, but this strategy has been recognized by China as ineffective [5][6]. Group 4: China's Firm Stance - China has reiterated that adjustments to its export control measures depend on the U.S. correcting its actions, emphasizing that dialogue is necessary rather than threats [8][11]. - Recent meetings in China focused on tightening controls over strategic mineral exports, indicating a commitment to maintaining strict export regulations [8][11]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The rare earth issue is a microcosm of the larger strategic interactions between China and the U.S., with China leveraging its rare earth advantages as a strategic asset [10][11]. - The ongoing tensions and lack of trust between the two nations suggest that any decisions regarding strategic resources must be approached with caution [11].

Core Points - The U.S. government signed an executive order named "reciprocal tariffs" to strengthen its voice in international trade and reduce the growing trade deficit [1] - The reciprocal tariff policy includes imposing tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods, affecting economies like the EU, China, and Japan [1] - In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar have significantly higher tariff rates compared to the EU and Japan [1] Tariff Rates Summary - The initial reciprocal tariff rate for China was set at 34%, later increased to 84% and then 125% [3] - China responded by raising tariffs on U.S. imports, with soybean tariffs increasing from 10% to 44% [3] - The price increase of consumer goods in the U.S. ranged from 10% to 20%, impacting low- and middle-income families significantly [3] Tariff Rate Table - The table lists various countries and their corresponding reciprocal tariff rates, with notable rates including: - Vietnam: 46% - Laos: 48% - Japan: 24% - EU: 20% [4] Rare Earth Elements Overview - China controls a significant portion of the global rare earth market, holding 36% of the total reserves [7] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for rare earth elements, with over 90% of its needs met through imports, primarily from China [7] - Rare earth elements are crucial for military and high-tech applications, with 35% of U.S. rare earth usage allocated to military purposes [8] China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China possesses 88% of the global heavy and medium rare earth resources, which are vital for high-tech applications [11] - The U.S. faces challenges in rare earth refining technology, with costs significantly higher than those in China [11] - China's control over rare earth separation patents and refining capacity gives it a strategic advantage over the U.S. [11] Global Rare Earth Production - In 2024, global rare earth production reached 390,000 tons, with China contributing 69.23% of this output [13] - If China imposes restrictions on rare earth exports, the U.S. supply chain, particularly in the renewable energy and military sectors, would face severe disruptions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of China's customs regulations on rare earth exports has significantly increased the difficulty of smuggling operations, leading to a crackdown on illegal activities and a rise in international rare earth prices, which has implications for global supply chains and military production [1][5][11]. Group 1: Smuggling Operations and Crackdown - The Chinese customs authorities have launched multiple operations resulting in the dismantling of 17 smuggling gangs and the seizure of 320 tons of rare earth materials, valued at over 230 million yuan [1][3]. - Smuggling methods have become increasingly sophisticated, with rare earths hidden in container layers or disguised as ordinary stones, but these attempts are being thwarted by advanced customs technology [3][9]. - The U.S. experts have noted that China's anti-smuggling network is significantly more effective than anticipated, with a tenfold increase in detection capabilities [5]. Group 2: Global Rare Earth Market Impact - China's rare earth reserves account for 40% of global supply, and the country has historically exported these materials at low prices, which has led to dependency from Western countries, particularly in military applications [5][11]. - The international prices of rare earths have surged threefold since 2023, causing U.S. defense contractors to rely on strategic reserves, with significant implications for military production lines like the F-35 [5][7]. Group 3: Smuggling Routes and Techniques - Southeast Asia has emerged as a transit point for smuggled Chinese rare earths, with U.S. companies allegedly laundering these materials through countries like Vietnam and Myanmar [7]. - In April 2025, U.S. customs seized 25 tons of antimony ingots disguised as hardware components, highlighting the ongoing risks associated with rare earth smuggling [7]. Group 4: Technological and Strategic Concerns - Chinese authorities have intercepted attempts to smuggle rare earth purification technology, indicating a broader concern over the theft of technological advancements [11]. - The U.S. is facing challenges in developing its own rare earth mining operations, with environmental costs and reliance on Chinese processing capabilities complicating the situation [13][15].

Group 1 - The new U.S. Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, presented his credentials to Chinese officials shortly after arriving in Beijing, indicating a formal start to his diplomatic role [1] - The U.S. and China are still engaged in a trade conflict, with tariffs not fully resolved and a formal agreement yet to be reached, suggesting ongoing tensions in bilateral relations [3] - The appointment of a hawkish ambassador like Burns may complicate negotiations on critical issues such as technology exports and student visas, as both countries maintain rigid stances [3][5] Group 2 - Burns is a strong supporter of President Trump and shares similar views on global supply chain optimization, aligning with the "America First" policy [5] - The current geopolitical climate is sensitive, with recent actions from both sides indicating a lack of willingness to compromise, which could hinder future discussions [5][7] - China's response to U.S. pressure emphasizes dialogue over threats, indicating a clear stance on resolving issues through negotiation rather than coercion [7]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China announced a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), bringing them to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first decrease of the year [1] - Major banks in China, including the "Big Four," have followed suit by lowering deposit rates, with the largest cut being 25 basis points [1] - The overall net interest margin for banks is expected to decline further, compressing profitability amid a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Loan Market - Many cities have not reduced mortgage rates following the LPR cut, instead opting to lower the LPR deduction, keeping mortgage rates around 3% [2] - The current loan rate of approximately 3% is seen as the bottom line for banks to maintain profitability in their lending operations [2] Group 3: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - Shanghai ranked first in the 2024 SME Development Environment Assessment, with overall scores improving from 7.46 in 2020 to 8.50 in 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that while the environment for SMEs has improved, there remains a significant regional imbalance, with eastern cities leading [4] Group 4: Automotive Industry - As of April 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles in China reached 3.5 million units, an increase of 150,000 from the previous month, indicating rising inventory levels [5] - The average inventory days for vehicles is now 57 days, slightly higher than the previous years, suggesting increased pressure on sales [5][6] Group 5: Rare Earth Industry - China has implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, leading to a significant increase in prices for certain materials, with prices for dysprosium and terbium rising 2-3 times in Europe [7] - China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth refining capacity, making these measures impactful on the global supply chain [7] Group 6: Technology and Consumer Electronics - Huawei launched its first HarmonyOS computers, with prices starting at 23,999 yuan, marking a significant step in its strategy to reduce reliance on foreign technology [10] - The HarmonyOS ecosystem is still developing, with limited software compatibility posing challenges for user adoption [11] Group 7: Financial Markets - On May 20, the Chinese stock market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38% amid active trading in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [14] - The market is experiencing a period of volatility, with a mix of sector performances and investor sentiment [15]

据直新闻报道，近日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明正式发布。具体而言，此次声明的核心成果之一，是中美双方同步大比例下调关税：美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。外界普遍认为，这一调整，既 是中美双方务实对话的阶段性成果，也反映出中方在缓解紧张关系、推动对话沟通等方面持续展现出的建设性态度。 但自中美谈判结束起，美方在48小时内连发三道威胁。先是美总统特朗普，称如果未来90天的谈判未能达成协议，关税可能会从目前的30%进一步上调 至"明显更高"的水平。紧接着，美商务部宣布采取更多措施加强全球半导体出口管制，威胁称"在世界任何地方使用华为昇腾芯片均违反美国出口管制"，并 警告将美国的AI芯片用于中国AI的模型训练和推理，将面临"潜在后果"。同时，还在芬太尼问题上继续胡搅蛮缠。面对美方突如其来的变脸，中方祭出迄今 为止最强硬和严格的稀土管制手段。 特朗普（资料图） 据直新闻报道，近日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部、公安部、国家安全部、海关总署、最高人民法院、最高人民检察院、国家邮政局等部 门在广东省深圳市召开 ...

几周后，广西媒体也报道了一起类似事件。根据广西南宁海关发布的"情况说明"，3月18日，一公司按 程序向海关申报1票出口泰国的货物焊锡膏，外包装标注"低温锡膏"，内包装标签显示"锡铋合金"，用 途为电子焊接用。经查验检测，该批焊锡膏铋含量为55.3%。 尽管铋属于氮族元素，不属于稀土，但根据有关规定，出口该批含铋的货物需向管理部门申领出口许可 证件，因公司无法提供该证件，海关不予放行。 中国稀土矿 视觉中国 【文/观察者网 刘程辉】稀土管制被广泛视作中国对美博弈的"反制王牌"。香港英文媒体《南华早报》5 月20日文章提到，中国在稀土等关键矿产供应链上占据绝对主导地位，美国尤其在重稀土分离提纯技术 上落后中国20年。尽管美国试图通过"矿产外交"等方式摆脱对华依赖，但短期内难以撼动中国地位。 不过也有业内分析人士提醒，中国需在保持优势的同时居安思危，加强基础研究和人才培养以防范长期 风险。 "中方管制不会放松" 文章称，虽然中美达成协议暂缓关税战，但中国仍在加强对稀土等关键矿物的供应控制，能随时切断美 国的获取渠道。 就在3月中旬，香港海关破获一起重大战略资源走私案，在北部边境货场截获伪装成普通医疗设备的25 吨锑 ...

2025年5月16日，澳大利亚莱纳斯稀土公司官网一则公告引发全球震动：声称在马来西亚工厂首次实现"氧化镝"分离技术突破，并计划下 个月量产"铽"。 这两个被中国列入4月4日出口管制清单的战略金属，是制造电动汽车电机、战斗机传感器和风力涡轮机的核心材料。 就在西方媒体高呼"中国垄断终结"之际，财报数据和产业真相却撕开了这场豪赌的底牌——莱纳斯的生产成本竟是中国企业的两倍以 上，而它的年产量仅相当于中国总量的5%。这场看似热闹的稀土突围战，实则是西方在技术壁垒与成本困局中的挣扎缩影。 莱纳斯CEO宣称的"全球唯一非中国重稀土分离商"头衔，掩盖了一个致命问题：规模。中国北方稀土年报显示，其单位稀土氧化物 （REO）生产成本仅为4-7美元/千克，而莱纳斯高达10-15美元/千克。 性废水处理问题常年遭居民抗议，被迫将部分工序迁回澳大利亚，导致物流和管理成本激增。从产量看，中国每年分离1.5-2万吨重稀 土，进口回收另增1-1.5万吨，而莱纳斯规划的年产能仅1500吨，不及中国单家头部企业的零头。 正如美国陆军副参谋长克里斯托弗的坦承："F-18战机导弹传感器所需的铟锑金属完全依赖中国技术，我们连替代方案的影子都没看 ...

2025-05-15 19:34·身边的世界 如果我们稍微锁紧一下稀土的管制，那对于美国工业，甚至军界都有十分深远的影响。 不说别的，就说几个大家熟知的： 美国军统巨头波音，他们的库存估计仅能维持几个月，这样的直接影响就是，他们的F-35生产线，就将面临停工的风险。 如果文章还让你喜欢，请辛苦你点个赞，你的支持，将是我持续创作的动力，感谢每一个相遇的人！ 在中美贸易博弈的这场"战争"里，中国有一张令全世界瞩目的"王牌"！ 不管美国是对我们加征关税，还是想与我们和谈，我们都可以"巍然不动"，而这张"王牌"也是所有网友最关心的东西——稀土。 它是美国高科技与军工产业的"命门"，没有了它的存在，那引起的连锁反应将难以想象。 —— 老美的窒息时刻 —— 从已有数据来看，我国掌握着全球70%的稀土产量，而且有着90%的精炼产能，尤其是中重稀土供应占比，更是高达99%。 对于稀土，从现在的热度来看，我们大家都不陌生，它属于稀有金属，是战斗机引擎、导弹制导系统、电动汽车电池，还有医疗设备的关键材料。 —— 蒙古的"梦" —— 在中美贸易战2023年的时候，蒙古突然出来搅局，对于中国限制的稀土，他们突然在2023年4月宣布， ...