Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening of the dividend style in the market, with the cash flow ETF (159399) seeing over 1% increase as funds are being bought on dips, indicating a trend of investors seeking safety in dividend assets amid market volatility [1] - Since December, the cash flow ETF has attracted over 4.6 billion yuan in inflows over the past 10 days, bringing its total size to over 4.5 billion yuan, reflecting a strong interest in dividend stocks as a defensive strategy [1] - Historical data suggests that dividend styles tend to yield significant excess returns in December, January, and April, as investors often turn to dividend stocks for risk aversion before year-end and during performance reporting periods [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) has been consistently distributing dividends for 9 months since its launch, with evaluations conducted monthly, presenting an opportunity for interested investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound with major indices showing collective weekly gains, and investors are expected to adopt a more cautious approach as the year-end approaches, leading to a focus on dividend and large-cap stocks as preferred investment choices [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share indices, including the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext, have recovered key levels of 3900 and 3100 points respectively [1]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a state of fluctuation and consolidation in the short term, with a lack of strong catalysts [1][7]. - Seasonal effects are expected to favor large-cap and dividend stocks in December, based on historical performance data [9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments in specific indices is expected to unlock significant capital, potentially bringing in hundreds of billions in new funds to the market [2]. - The upcoming important meeting in December is likely to provide policy direction and liquidity signals, with sectors such as new productivity, domestic consumption, and precious metals being highlighted as potential beneficiaries [6][4]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with structural opportunities, including traditional manufacturing, resource sectors, and dividend-paying stocks like banks and energy companies [5][7]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Citic Securities emphasizes that the market will likely experience a rotation of structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from global exposure and profit margin improvements [5]. - China Galaxy recommends monitoring sectors that may receive policy support during the upcoming meeting, as well as technology growth sectors that may see recovery after previous valuation adjustments [6]. - Morgan Asset Management highlights the potential for growth in robotics and semiconductor sectors, indicating a shift towards fundamentals-driven market dynamics in 2026 [10].

从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列同类首位，是第二名的三倍多，更多 人选择中证A500ETF（159338），感兴趣的投资者或可关注中证A500ETF（159338）。 国开证券指出，关注促消费政策落地与消费场景创新的效果，消费板块二级市场或存结构性机会。周期 性板块中，一旦国际油价止跌回稳，有助于刺激化工等方向需求层面的促进。央企业绩具备足够韧性， 地方国企业绩存在改善空间，关注国有"三资"潜力释放。红利风格有望延续"指数牛"格局；上证50、中 证A500等核心资产指数或有阶段性积极表现。 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用的"行业 均衡"方式编制。它挑选了各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券作为指数样本，成分股覆盖全部中 证二级行业和97%中证三级行业。同时，几乎所有三级行业龙头都入选样本，真正实现了"龙头荟萃"。 与此同时，指数编制引入互联互通、ESG筛选等机制，符合海内外机构投资者偏好，有利于吸引长期资 金配置A股核心资产。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

近期，市场震荡波动，资金流入现金流ETF（159399）避险，现金流ETF近10日吸金近6亿元，当 前规模超43亿元。今日盘中涨超1%，根据wind数据，资金持续净买入中。 临近年底政策窗口期，市场往往面临 "业绩真空期 + 政策不确定性 + 资金面收紧"的问题，资金更 倾向于配置红利资产，以获取更优收益/波动比的"防御底仓"。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 值得关注的是，现金流ETF（159399）月月评估分红，截止2025年11月，自上市以来已经连续分红 9个月。 风险提示：提及基金属于股票型基金，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和 货币市场基金，属于较高风险、较高收益的基金。提及基金为指数型基金，主要采用完全复制策略，其 风险收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投 资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, raising the A-share rating to "overweight" due to multiple positive incremental drivers expected next year, including broader AI applications and consumer stimulus measures [1] - Saxo Bank suggests that the stock market may trade sideways or see slight increases as the market responds positively to renewed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, making a "Santa Rally" likely in December [1] Group 2 - ANZ analysts indicate that copper prices are supported by risk appetite and supply tightness, with Chilean producer Codelco pushing for a significant increase in annual premiums for 2026 contracts [2] Group 3 - Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts that Brent crude oil prices could quickly drop to $60 per barrel if a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is achieved, which would alleviate supply risks from U.S. sanctions [3] Group 4 - Dutch Bank analysts believe the Bank of England is more likely to cut rates in December following the recent budget measures that could lower inflation [4] Group 5 - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that the Bank of Korea may maintain its interest rates longer than previously expected due to the weak won and rising housing prices [5] Group 6 - Kaiyuan Securities forecasts that the dividend style in the A-share market will outperform in 2026, with a focus on technology sectors and potential "high-low switch" opportunities [6] - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about AI-driven demand for computing power and applications, highlighting the need to focus on core model companies [6] - Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on the upstream military industry chain and military trade opportunities in 2026, anticipating a new round of procurement cycles [6] Group 7 - Zhongtai Securities asserts that there are no conditions for a major style switch in the market, suggesting a focus on low-crowding technology sectors and global resource pricing [7] Group 8 - Huatai Securities believes that the satellite industry chain will experience rapid growth due to advancements in reusable rockets and reduced launch costs [8] Group 9 - CITIC Securities indicates that the robotics technology route is continuously iterating, with a focus on three categories of investment opportunities [9] Group 10 - Huatai Securities expects a moderate recovery in essential consumption in 2026, driven by structural stabilization in real estate prices and potential policy stimuli [10] Group 11 - CITIC Securities reports that the domestic embodied intelligence sector has surpassed a total market value of 3 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential as commercialization progresses [11][12]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," indicating that the potential for significant gains next year outweighs the risks of major losses [1] - The report highlights that the Chinese stock market has retraced some of its excess gains from this year, creating an attractive entry point [1] - Multiple supportive factors for next year include the application of artificial intelligence, consumer measures, and governance reforms [1] Group 2 - The MSCI China Index has declined by 6.2% this quarter, while the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index has increased by 1.3% [1] - Since early April, the MSCI China Index has risen approximately 33%, compared to a 37% increase in the Asian benchmark index [1] - The report suggests that the Chinese stock market is still in the early stages of recovery from a downtrend that began at the end of 2020, with acceptable valuations and light positioning [1] Group 3 - Fidelity International's global diversified asset investment head expresses optimism for the Chinese stock market, particularly in the technology sector, viewing recent market pullbacks as a good opportunity to increase exposure [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) Index could rise to 1025 points next year, representing a potential increase of about 15% from the recent closing price [2] - Open Source Securities notes that the recent upward trend in A-shares since late June is a normal fluctuation, and the current pullback is within a reasonable range for historical bull market adjustments [2] Group 4 - Open Source Securities anticipates a more balanced market style by 2026, with technology remaining a long-term allocation advantage while cyclical sectors will also present investment opportunities [3] - The report indicates that dividend styles are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to 2025, warranting attention [3]

国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，中证国有企业红利指数从国有企业中选取现金股息率 高、分红比较稳定且有一定规模及流动性的100只上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息 率证券的整体表现。 据Wind数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证国有企业红利指数前十大权重股分别为中远海控、冀中 能源、潞安环能、山煤国际、山西焦煤、南钢股份、恒源煤电、农业银行、鲁西化工、中粮糖业，前十 大权重股合计占比17.08%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 616109 | 中远海控 | -0.20% | 2.24% | | 000937 | 冀中能源 | 0.00% | 2.03% | | COTEDD | 潞安环能 | 1.38% | 1.94% | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 0.00% | 1.63% | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | -0.15% | 1.58% | | 600282 | 南钢股份 | -0.91% | 1.53% | | 000830 | 鲁西化工 | 2.67% | 1.52% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently facing emotional pullback pressure due to the performance entering a window period and fluctuating expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025, leading to increased market volatility and year-end profit-taking behavior. The "dumbbell strategy" remains suitable for the current market, with certain dividend-themed ETFs becoming preferred options for capital allocation due to their defensive attributes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Fund Flows - As of November 21, 2025, two major dividend-themed ETFs, the Dividend ETF (510880) and the Low Volatility Dividend ETF (512890), have attracted significant capital inflows of 440 million yuan and 230 million yuan respectively, indicating strong investor interest even during market adjustments [2]. - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (512890), launched on December 19, 2018, has accumulated 4.554 billion yuan in capital since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching a total fund size of 25.895 billion yuan by November 24, 2025, making it the only dividend-themed ETF in the A-share market exceeding 25 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Management and Strategy - The Huatai-PB Low Volatility Dividend ETF Link Y (022951) has gained popularity among individual pension investors, with its fund size reaching 245 million yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2025, marking a 440.36% increase compared to the end of 2024 [3][4]. - Huatai-PB Fund, as one of the first ETF managers in China, has over 18 years of experience in managing dividend-themed index investments, with a total management scale of 46.966 billion yuan across five dividend-themed ETFs as of November 24, 2025 [4][5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant pullback this week, with a relative advantage in dividend style. Market volume initially decreased but later increased, showing a week-on-week contraction [4] - The market's trading rhythm shifted from previous range-bound fluctuations to a continuous decline, influenced by overseas trading sentiment. The artificial intelligence sector continued its adjustment, while previously strong sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment saw substantial corrections [4] - All major indices declined this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, the Shanghai 50 down 2.72%, the CSI 300 down 3.77%, the CSI 500 down 5.78%, the CSI 1000 down 5.80%, the ChiNext Index down 6.15%, and the North Star 50 Index down 9.04% [4] Valuation Insights - As of November 21, 2025, broad indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are at a "moderate" valuation percentile, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai 50 are at a "danger" valuation percentile. The food and beverage sector is classified as "safe" in terms of valuation [4] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a deterioration in the short-term Alpha environment. Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents increased, suggesting an improvement in the short-term Alpha environment [5] - Time series volatility for the CSI 300 index constituents decreased week-on-week, indicating a worsening Alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index constituents saw an increase, indicating an improvement [5] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks receiving the most institutional attention this week were Rongbai Technology (137 institutions), Lens Technology (121), Antu Biology (101), Shengmei Shanghai (96), and Liande Co. (74) [6] - During the trading period from November 17 to November 21, 2025, southbound funds saw a net inflow of 38.602 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound net inflow at 17.875 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's at 20.727 billion HKD [6] ETF Performance - The median return for stock ETFs this week was -4.49%, with a net inflow of 49.533 billion CNY. Cross-border ETFs had a median return of -3.42% and a net inflow of 2.329 billion CNY. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -6.24% with a net inflow of 17.821 billion CNY. Commodity ETFs had a median return of -2.50% and a net inflow of 6.495 billion CNY [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of the year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with notable years such as 2020 where the large-cap growth index rose by 16.5% [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They also highlight opportunities in energy metals, chemical products, and technology sectors [8][9]. - The recommendation includes a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while maintaining a long-term perspective [9].