Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

It certainly looks like they're going to do the 25 unless they want to surprise the market. And if they feel the market needs to be surprised, they could do 50. But there's no indication that we need the surprise tone just fine.The rate decisions are the least interesting of everything on Wednesday. There are three other things to look for. The first is the post-meeting statement.How many dissenters are there. How many members actually wanted a 50 basis point rate cut. And are there any dissenters that didn ...

法国和日本的政治危机削弱了美元的主要竞争对手欧元和日元的强势。法国和日本首相的辞职以及巴黎即将举行的议会选举，让美元 暂时摆脱了货币政策的影响。美联储进一步放松货币政策的可能性正在迅速增加，此前美联储公布了创纪录的3月份就业数据修正，就 业岗位较之前的预期减少了91.1万个，8月份生产者价格指数也意外下降。 联邦法院允许美联储委员丽莎·库克出席9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议的裁决，正在帮助美元走强。唐纳德·特朗普希望削弱美元， 因此总统的任何失利都可能成为买入美元的信号。这其中也包括利用美联储独立性进行交易的策略。 过去五周，美元指数几乎没有在97-98的窄幅区间波动。这种拉锯战取代了六个月的下行趋势以及随后在7月份的反弹尝试。在这种情 况下，横向走势是一个看跌信号。从中期来看，当前的走势可能最终演变为修正性反弹，其微弱的波动（甚至未达到初始跌幅的 76.4%）表明卖方力量强劲。与此同时，美元处于13年上升趋势线的支撑位，即使维持在同一水平也会导致跌破该线。 鉴于市场日益预期美联储将进行4-5次降息，而其他央行预计不会效仿，Junomarkets有基本面依据认为美元将在新财年开始时恢复跌 势。 在全球经济扩张 ...

【盘面分析】 【消息面】 美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增长0.4%，同比增长2.9%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价 格后，核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长3.1%。此次 8 月 CPI 数据基本符合预期，通胀相对平稳给了美 联储更大的灵活性，根据CME美联储观察，下周降息25个基点的概率下调至90%下方，而降息50个基点 概率上调至10%上方。 美联储方面，当地时间周三，美国司法部向华盛顿联邦上诉法院提交通知，要求推翻此前的裁决。 摘要9月12日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为833.96元/克，涨幅0.07%，沪银 主力报价为10030.00元/千克，涨幅2.33%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3869.50元/盎司， 涨幅0.44%，COMEX白银报价42.62美元/盎司，涨幅1.31%。 9月12日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为833.96元/克，涨幅0.07%，沪银主力 报价为10030.00元/千克，涨幅2.33%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3869.50元/盎司，涨幅 0.44%，COMEX白银报价42.62美元/盎司 ...

日线技术指标显示，黄金的相对强弱指数（RSI）处于超买区间。这表明近期的上行趋势可能需要一定 整理，以消化高位买盘压力。 在支撑方面，3600美元及3580美元附近形成了初步防线，如金价下行突破，可能测试中期支撑区域 3565–3560美元甚至更低的历史低点3510美元。 上方阻力位则集中在近期高点3675美元及心理整数关口3700美元，这些水平将对进一步上涨形成考验。 市场对美联储货币政策的预期是影响黄金的重要因素。近期美国生产者价格指数（PPI）涨幅低于预 期，强化了市场对未来降息的预期。 若美联储实际降息，可能对美元形成压力，从而间接影响以美元计价的商品价格。值得关注的是，市场 仍在等待美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据的公布，这一数据将为市场判断通胀走势和货币政策方向 提供重要线索。 高于预期的CPI可能支撑美元，而低于预期则可能减缓美元走强的步伐。 这种避险需求会在一定程度上支撑黄金价格，使其在短期内表现出防御性特征。 除了宏观经济因素，市场对不确定性事件的敏感度也会对黄金价格产生影响。在金融市场、经济数据或 全球经济环境出现突发变化时，投资者通常会增加对避险资产的关注。 近期现货黄金价格在高位区 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a weekly high of over $10,000 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - On September 10, LME three-month copper rose by $99, or 1%, closing at $10,013.00 per ton, marking the third test of the $10,000 psychological level this month [1][2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%, indicating relatively modest inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $30.5, or 1.07%, closing at $2,886.5 per ton, driven by supply concerns as zinc inventories have decreased by nearly 75% since mid-April [5] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month aluminum up by $2.5, or 0.1%, at $2,625.0 per ton, and LME three-month lead rising by $10, or 0.51%, to $1,987.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month nickel and tin prices also experienced gains, with nickel up by $41, or 0.27%, at $15,146.0 per ton, and tin rising by $597, or 1.76%, to $34,606.0 per ton [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]