Core Viewpoint - *ST Chengchang has gained significant investor attention following its impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with multiple well-known funds, brokerages, and private equity firms conducting research on the company [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, *ST Chengchang achieved an operating income of 201 million yuan, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 180.16% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 56.63 million yuan, marking a successful turnaround from losses and a significant growth [1] Business Growth Drivers - The company's performance growth is primarily attributed to the recovery in downstream market demand and the accelerated delivery of key projects across multiple core business segments [1] - There has been a continuous release of orders in satellite, airborne, and ground applications, with both the number of orders on hand and major projects showing year-on-year double growth [1] Product and Market Position - *ST Chengchang specializes in the research, production, sales, and technical services of microwave and millimeter-wave phased array T/R chips, covering a wide range of high-performance products applicable in various fields [2] - The company has established a strong reputation and recognition in the industry, being one of the few that can provide complete and advanced T/R chip solutions and aerospace-grade chip development [2] Project and Order Status - In the satellite phased array sector, the company's T/R chip products have been widely applied in multiple satellite series, with ongoing projects entering continuous bulk delivery phases [3] - The company maintains a close collaborative relationship with downstream users in the low Earth orbit satellite field, continuously iterating satellite communication T/R chip solutions based on customer needs [3] - The company emphasizes its commitment to expanding operational scale and achieving high profitability levels throughout the year, driven by the significant growth in downstream demand and product application penetration [3]

Core Insights - The domestic semiconductor IP market in China is rapidly growing, driven by advancements in AI, big data, and the development of self-controlled chips, contributing to high-level technological independence [1][7] - The market size of China's semiconductor IP is projected to reach 14.703 billion yuan in 2024, with processor IP accounting for 49.53% and expected to grow to 18.634 billion yuan in 2025 [1][7] Industry Definition and Classification - Semiconductor IP, also known as IP cores, refers to reusable integrated circuit design modules that have been verified for specific functions [2] - It can be classified based on delivery methods (soft IP, hard IP, firm IP) and product types (processor IP, interface IP, physical IP, digital IP) [2] Current Development Status - The global semiconductor IP market is expected to reach a record high of $8.481 billion in 2024, with processor IP and interface IP being the strongest segments [6][7] - China's semiconductor IP market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant contributions from consumer electronics, telecommunications, and computing sectors [8] Industry Evolution - The rise of semiconductor IP is attributed to the maturation of the semiconductor industry, increased demand, and refined design processes [4][9] - China's semiconductor IP industry has evolved from early stages of technology introduction to rapid growth and expansion, supported by government policies [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The global semiconductor IP market is highly concentrated, with major players including ARM, Synopsys, and Cadence, which dominate the high-end core IP sector [11][12] - In China, local companies are making progress in emerging fields like RISC-V and AI IP, with significant players including Cambrian, Xinyuan, and others [12][13] Industry Trends - The domestic integrated circuit industry is in a rapid expansion phase, driven by the increasing demand for chips in smartphones, IoT devices, and new energy vehicles, providing a stable market for local semiconductor IP providers [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Sideways with a downward bias [32] - US Dollar: Bearish [32] - US Stocks: Sideways with an upward bias [32] - A-Shares: Sideways [32] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways with a downward bias [32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is centered around interest rate cut trading. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium signals a possible September rate cut, but the medium - term rate cut space is limited due to the resilience of the US economy and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. Although the macro - fundamentals have limited recovery, the stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and risk appetite is expected to remain high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The market speculated on interest rate cut trading this week. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized the increasing downside risks in the employment market and the short - term nature of tariff - induced inflation, signaling a September rate cut. However, the medium - term rate cut space is restricted by the US economic resilience and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. The stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and overseas liquidity easing signals are expected to support domestic risk appetite [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets rose this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index fell 2.3% [9][10]. - Most countries in the MSCI Global Index recorded gains. The expectation of interest rate cuts boosted global market risk appetite, with developed markets > global > frontier > emerging markets [10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US Dollar Index continued to decline, depreciating 0.12% to 97.7. Most currencies appreciated slightly against the US dollar. The RMB exchange - rate index remained unchanged, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated, and the off - shore RMB against the US dollar appreciated 0.25% [12][14]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major countries fluctuated, with emerging markets seeing larger increases. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield fell 7bp to 4.26%, the Japanese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.62%, and the German government bond yield fell 6bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.78%, the Brazilian government bond yield rose 27bp, the Indian government bond yield rose 15bp, and the Vietnamese government bond yield rose 11bp [19][23]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market showed marginal improvement this week, with the spot index performing weakly. Crude oil rose 1% to $63.8 per barrel. The metal and precious - metal sectors were boosted by the expectation of interest rate cuts, with LME copper rising 0.37%, LME aluminum rising 0.73%, COMEX gold rising 1%, and silver rising 2.26%. The agricultural - product sector was strong, with soybeans and corn rising 1.5%. The domestic commodity market weakened, with rebar falling 2.2% and iron ore falling 0.8% [29]. 3.3 Asset Class Weekly Outlook 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market has priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. In the short term, gold prices will continue to trade in a range and lack the momentum to break through [33]. - The real interest rate has fallen to 1.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has stopped falling and rebounded. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening, which suppresses gold prices. The US Dollar Index fell, the RMB rose, and Shanghai gold continued to trade at a discount [41]. - Comex gold futures' speculative net - long positions decreased slightly, and SPDR Gold ETF holdings flowed out slightly. Shanghai gold's positions declined, and its inventory increased. Silver rose slightly, outperforming gold, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88 [46]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was extremely dovish, shifting the Fed's policy focus to unemployment. The market expects the Fed to accelerate rate cuts in September, and the US Dollar Index is expected to trend downward [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - At the beginning of the week, the technology sector corrected due to the expected hawkish stance of Powell. However, after his dovish speech on Friday, the market risk appetite recovered. The interest rate cut expectation is expected to support the US stock market to trade sideways with an upward bias in the near term. Attention should be paid to NVIDIA's earnings report and July PCE data next week [52]. - In terms of sectors, energy, real estate, finance, and materials rose more than 2%. Only the information technology and communication sectors fell. The Q2 earnings of US stocks were strong, with 81% of companies exceeding expectations, and the profit growth rate reached 11.6%. Institutional investors' positions increased, and the volatility index remained at a low level [63]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, 30 out of 30 A - share industries in the CITIC primary - industry classification rose, with the communication industry leading the gain (+10.47%) and the real - estate industry lagging (+0.98%). The Shanghai Composite Index broke through historical highs, and the trading volume reached an average of 2.5 trillion yuan per day. The "bull - market expectation" has gained consensus, and the stock market is less sensitive to fundamental pressures in the short term [64][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Next week, the bond market is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, as it is in a data and policy vacuum, and the bond market's performance will be dominated by the money - market and equity - market conditions. The central bank is committed to maintaining market liquidity, but the money - market may tighten marginally during tax - payment and month - end periods. The expectation of interest rate cuts is more favorable for the stock market [77]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The GDPNow model's estimate of Q3 GDP growth has fallen to 2.26%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales has rebounded to 5.9%. The crude - oil price has rebounded slightly, and the market's inflation expectation has remained stable. The initial jobless claims reached 235,000, and the continued jobless claims fell to 1.972 million, indicating a weakening labor market [90][99]. - The bank's reserve balance remained at $3.3 trillion, the TGA account balance rebounded slightly to $526.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rebounded to $36.3 billion. The market liquidity remained stable. The volatility index fell to a low for the year, and the corporate bond spread remained low. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the market has priced in a rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year [106]. - In July, the US CPI rose slightly, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI rose significantly, with the core PPI rising 3.7% year - on - year. Service inflation has rebounded, indicating strong core - inflation stickiness [113]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remained weak, and the effectiveness of the policies proposed by the State Council to stabilize the real - estate market needs to be monitored [114]. - As of August 22, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.48%, 1.47%, 1.42%, and 1.46% respectively, with changes of - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.13 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight - trading proportion was 87.75%, slightly lower than the previous week [130]. - In July, the economic data generally weakened, especially domestic demand. The private - sector's self - repair ability was insufficient, and the policy focus was on structural adjustment. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6%, and the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and other indicators declined [131]. - In July, the financial data showed a divergence. The M1 and M2 growth rates exceeded market expectations, while the new - credit data was weak. The policy has started to support the demand side, but the effect may not be significant in the short term. The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September [135]. - In July, the PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, and the CPI was 0.0% year - on - year. The terminal demand remained weak, and the price increase of commodities due to the "anti - cut - throat competition" policy has not been transmitted to the downstream [150]. - In July, the export growth rate was 7.2%, and the import growth rate was 4.1%, both exceeding expectations. However, the sustainability of the export growth is questionable, and the import growth depends on the recovery of domestic demand [160].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman have strengthened expectations for global monetary easing, which, combined with internal easing in the A-share market, is expected to reinforce the upward trend of A-shares [1] Group 1: Industry Waves and Bull Markets - Historical bull markets have been driven by significant industry waves, such as the mobile internet boom and the new positioning of electric vehicles from 2014 to 2015 [1] - The mobile internet wave began in 2013 when smartphone penetration exceeded 70%, leading to explosive growth in both hardware and software applications during 2014-2015 [1] - The "Made in China 2025" initiative, introduced in 2015, emphasized the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, which significantly impacted the lithium battery sector, with the lithium battery concept index seeing a maximum increase of 122% from early 2015 to June 15, 2015 [1][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The bull market from 2019 to 2021 was characterized by the emphasis on self-sufficient chips and the significant development of carbon neutrality, with the chip sector index experiencing a maximum increase of nearly 200% [7] - The announcement of China's "dual carbon" goals in 2020 provided substantial benefits to carbon neutrality-related industries, leading to many stocks doubling in value [9] - The AI industry wave that began in 2023 has been observed from three perspectives: supply chain advantages, software replacement, and hardware replacement, with the communication ETF showing a maximum increase of nearly 120% since May 2023 [10][12] Group 3: Current and Future Industry Waves - Current industry waves include innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by a shift from self-research to purchasing patent licenses, and robotics, which is gaining momentum due to policy support and industry collaboration [18] - The maximum increases of various indices during different industry waves over the past decade include: - Mobile internet wave: Apple concept index up 166.95% - New energy vehicles: lithium battery concept index up 122% - Chip self-sufficiency: chip index up 197.88% - AI software replacement: AI ETF up 67% - Hardware replacement: Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF up 54.7% [17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the mainland chip manufacturer Iluvatar CoreX is considering an IPO in Hong Kong, with a fundraising target of approximately $300 to $400 million [1] - Iluvatar CoreX was established in 2015 and focuses on developing autonomous and internationally leading general-purpose GPU products, aiming to accelerate the construction of a self-sufficient industrial ecosystem and provide computing power solutions for the entire industry [1] - The company has undergone several rounds of financing, with investors including major firms such as Da Cheng Capital, Princeville Capital, and Shanghai Electric Hong Kong, among others [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the mainland chip manufacturer Iluvatar CoreX is considering an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise between 300 million to 400 million USD [1] - Iluvatar CoreX was established in 2015 and focuses on developing autonomous and internationally leading general-purpose GPU products [1] - The company aims to accelerate the construction of an independent industrial ecosystem and provide computing power solutions for the entire industry, positioning itself as a credible, efficient, and green domestic computing power engine [1] Group 2 - Iluvatar CoreX has undergone several rounds of financing, with investors including major firms such as Dazhong Capital, Princeville Capital, and Shanghai Electric Hong Kong [1] - Other notable investors include financial institutions and investment funds like Tongfang Capital, Zhongguancun Science City Technology Growth Fund, and Shanghai Free Trade Zone Equity Fund [1]

Core Viewpoint - The return of NVIDIA's H20 chip to the Chinese market is seen as a strategic move amidst the ongoing US-China tech rivalry, with implications for both companies and the broader industry landscape [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's H20 Chip - NVIDIA's H20 chip was initially banned from export to China but received approval for re-entry, indicating a potential easing of restrictions, though underlying complexities remain [1]. - The H20 chip is positioned as a strong competitor in the domestic market, particularly in large model training and inference, highlighting its cost-performance advantages [2][5]. - The US Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the lifting of the ban was influenced by China's advancements in developing comparable chips, underscoring the competitive dynamics at play [2]. Group 2: Huawei's Ascend 910B Chip - Huawei's Ascend 910B chip utilizes the self-developed Da Vinci architecture, allowing for adaptability across various application scenarios, and has achieved significant energy efficiency improvements [3][5]. - The chip's manufacturing process leverages 7nm technology from SMIC, enhancing its performance and energy balance despite external restrictions [3]. - Huawei's software optimization strategies, including sparse computing and model quantization, enable the Ascend chip to deliver high performance even under constrained manufacturing conditions [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The competition between NVIDIA's H20 and Huawei's Ascend 910B is at a critical juncture, with both chips vying for dominance in the AI computing space [5]. - The re-entry of H20 may provide short-term relief for some domestic companies facing AI computing power shortages, but the long-term outlook for NVIDIA remains uncertain due to increasing pressure from local alternatives [5][6]. - The evolving landscape suggests a clear divergence in chip technology routes, with a growing emphasis on domestic capabilities and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges China faces due to its heavy reliance on imported chips and the strategies it can adopt to mitigate the impact of a possible supply cut from the United States [1][3]. Group 1: Current Situation - The United States holds a dominant position in the global chip industry, controlling a significant portion of the world's chip reserves and possessing advanced technology [3]. - China currently imports 95% of its chips, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [3]. Group 2: Potential Consequences - A supply cut from the U.S. could severely impact various high-tech industries in China, leading to shortages in essential products like smartphones, computers, and medical devices [3][6]. Group 3: Proposed Strategies - China should accelerate its independent research and development efforts, increasing investment in technology and talent to master core chip technologies [3][6]. - Strengthening international cooperation is essential for China to learn advanced technologies and expand its market [4]. - Building a complete industrial chain from design to manufacturing and testing is crucial for improving efficiency and competitiveness [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Goals - While it is challenging to eliminate dependence on imported chips in the short term, a gradual and steady approach is necessary to achieve self-sufficiency in chip production [6][8]. - Enhancing the quality and performance of domestic chips is vital for competing with imported alternatives and ultimately replacing them in the market [6][8].