Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5]. - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the driving force of macro factors has weakened. The domestic methanol market has high production and import pressure, high port inventories, and poor olefin profits, resulting in a weak demand situation that needs improvement. The methanol 2601 contract is likely to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On Monday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping 2.09% to 2,110 yuan/ton [5]. Market Conditions - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5]. - Although the downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit on the futures market is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5]. Macro Factors - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, the two sides made positive progress in economic and trade tariffs, but the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon in the market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The weak supply - demand situation is the main factor leading to this trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and weakly downward [1] - **Intraday**: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and weakly downward [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the overall results in economic and trade tariffs were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - positive sentiment faded, the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking in the market [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are high [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved [5] 3.3 Market Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price dropping significantly by 2.09% to 2156 yuan/ton [5]

Core Insights - The Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans showed mixed price movements on October 29, with corn and wheat prices increasing while soybean prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - The most actively traded December corn contract closed at $4.34 per bushel, up 2 cents or 0.46% from the previous trading day [1] - The December wheat contract closed at $5.32 per bushel, up 3.25 cents or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.95 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.07% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The agricultural market has already priced in positive developments regarding trade situations, leading to a decline in soybean prices due to profit-taking [1] - Analysts suggest that unless severe drought occurs in South America, there is limited upside potential for crop prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Global gold prices rebounded over 1% on October 24 due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold prices rose by 1% to $4,132.76 per ounce, while December gold futures increased by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1] - Earlier in the week, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381.21 per ounce before experiencing the largest single-day drop in five years, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [1][3] Group 2: Market Influences - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include global tensions, increased economic uncertainty, expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant net purchases of gold by central banks [3] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as an opportunity for new buying, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report, with expectations that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, which will be a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3][5] - Analysts suggest that the market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with potential for another cut in December [5] Group 4: Future Projections - JPMorgan forecasts that due to strong investment demand and high levels of net gold purchases by central banks (estimated at 566 tons per quarter next year), the average gold price could reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [5] - Other precious metals also saw price increases, with spot silver rising by 1.1% to $49.07 per ounce, platinum up by 0.5% to $1,629.44 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.4% to $1,453.90 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver prices plummeting after reaching historical highs, indicating a sharp correction in the market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold fell over 6% in a single day, dropping $232 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with futures settling at $4,109.10 per ounce after hitting a peak of $4,381 [1][4]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with spot prices dropping 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, and hitting a low of $47.85, marking the largest single-day drop since 2021 [3][4]. - Domestic markets mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold futures dropping nearly 6% and Au99.99 contracts falling over 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline was triggered by multiple negative factors, including a decrease in risk aversion following a joint statement from European leaders supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced gold's safe-haven premium [4][5]. - The U.S. government's potential resolution of the "shutdown crisis" and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. further suppressed market demand for safe-haven assets [4]. - Profit-taking by investors contributed to the sell-off, as gold and silver had seen substantial gains earlier in the year, with gold up over 57% and silver over 67% [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The sell-off quickly affected capital markets, with significant declines in gold and silver mining stocks, including Harmony Gold and AngloGold, both dropping over 10% [6]. - In contrast, some leading domestic stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold saw significant trading volumes, indicating a divergence in market sentiment between institutional and retail investors [6]. - Retail gold prices in physical markets, such as those from Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook, actually increased by 2%-2.5%, highlighting a difference in expectations between physical consumption and financial investment [6]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Despite the sharp decline, many analysts believe this adjustment is a temporary correction within a strong market trend, with the underlying bullish factors for gold remaining intact [7]. - Continued central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels are expected to support gold prices in the long term [7]. - HSBC has set a target price of $5,000 per ounce for gold by 2026, emphasizing ongoing central bank purchases and monetary easing as key drivers [7]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile short-term outlook for gold and silver, with expectations of limited downside for gold but greater fluctuations for silver [8]. - Citibank has shifted its short-term view to bearish, forecasting gold prices to stabilize around $4,000 per ounce in the next 2-3 weeks [8].

证券时报记者 许孝如 今年以来，金银走出了一轮史诗级的牛市行情，尤其是黄金接连突破了3000美元、4000美元大关，年内 累计涨幅一度超过60%，堪称市场表现最佳的一类资产。 伴随着金银价格不断刷出历史新高，资金愈发涌入的势头也非常明显。9月，全球实物黄金ETF甚至录 得了有史以来最大的单月流入规模。不过，就在市场的一片唱多声中，金银的大跌也不期而至。10月21 日，伦敦现货黄金从历史高位"摔下"，日内一度大跌6.7%；现货白银当天则大跌逾7%，失守50美元大 关。 展望后市，金银成色尚有几何？ 避险降速金银大跌 10月21日，伦敦现货黄金从历史高位大跌，日内一度跌逾6.7%，收盘报跌5.33%，创下2020年8月以来 最大单日跌幅。值得一提的是，黄金价格单日暴跌232美元/盎司，或创出新的历史纪录。 据统计，2000年以来，伦敦金单日跌幅超过5.3%的情形仅出现过7次，其中最大的一次跌幅为9.11%， 单日暴跌135美元/盎司。 与黄金相比，白银的抛售压力更为强劲。10月21日，现货白银大跌超7%，跌破50美元大关，最低一度 触及47.85美元/盎司，不过今年以来白银的累计涨幅仍在70%一线。 10月22日 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The closing price of gold futures on October 22 was 952.56 CNY per gram, with a daily decline of 3.92% and a trading volume of 728,934 contracts [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on the same day was quoted at 943.50 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 9.06 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold prices fell by 5.33%, reaching 4,123.37 USD per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2020, with potential support around 4,000 USD [2] Group 2: Silver Market Overview - Silver prices followed gold's significant decline, with international silver prices dropping by 7.03% to 48.674 USD per ounce, falling below the 50 USD mark during trading [4] - There is a phase of reduced overseas physical demand for silver, while ETF inflows continue, indicating a mixed demand scenario [4] - Domestic industrial demand for silver remains weak, reflecting a disparity between external and internal market conditions [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing short-term fluctuations, with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations ahead of the APEC meeting at the end of October posing potential risks for a market correction [3] - The recent overheating of the market has triggered profit-taking among bullish investors, compounded by delays in the holdings report due to the U.S. government shutdown [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in precious metals, with gold dropping over 4% and silver over 6%, attributed to reduced safe-haven demand and seasonal buying in India coming to an end [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is leading traders to hedge against potential price declines or speculate on price drops for profit [4] - The strong US dollar is increasing the cost of purchasing gold for buyers holding other currencies, further pressuring gold prices [1] Group 2 - The ongoing US government shutdown has resulted in the loss of critical data from the CFTC, which tracks hedge fund positions in gold and silver futures, potentially leading to abnormal large positions in one direction by speculators [3] - Record trading volumes in options related to the largest gold ETF have been observed, indicating heightened activity and speculation in the market [4] - Historical trends suggest that while gold holdings in ETFs have not reached previous peaks, momentum typically wanes, and buying may eventually turn to selling, especially if US economic data proves stronger than expected [4]

Core Insights - Commodities investors have experienced significant profits in 2025, particularly in gold and silver, with gold rising approximately 56% over the past year and 60% year-to-date, while silver has increased by 62.6% over the past year and 78.4% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Recent Trends - Both gold and silver have recently seen a decline, with gold losing 2% and silver down 5% over the past week, and further declines of 6% for GLD and 7.9% for SLV on a specific Tuesday [2] - The recent downturn in gold and silver prices is attributed to an overcrowded trade and a market that was running hot, leading to a natural reversal [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Profit-taking is likely contributing to the pullback in gold and silver prices, although the long-term fundamentals remain supportive [4] - A significant factor in the price reversal is the increase in margin requirements on the Shanghai Exchange, which triggered a sell-off that affected global markets [5] - The tightness in physical supply, particularly for silver, is also influencing market confidence, with potential for a sell-off as weaker hands exit the market [6]

Group 1 - A peculiar phenomenon has emerged in the A-share market, with 93 stocks experiencing net financing purchases for over five consecutive days, including Tongfang Co., which was favored for 13 days [1] - The market's sudden rise attributed to a tech giant's new product release was misleading, as the leading stocks were in the automotive sector, indicating a disconnect between news and market movements [3] - The behavior of large funds is often misunderstood; they do not react to news but rather to the potential for follow-on buying from retail investors [3][10] Group 2 - Market trading behavior can be categorized into four types: bullish dominance, profit-taking, bearish dominance, and short covering, each represented by different colored bars [5] - A deceptive market trend can occur where stock prices appear to rise slowly while actually reflecting profit-taking behavior, misleading investors into thinking the market is strong [8] - Conversely, a stock may experience a significant drop while showing signs of short covering, creating a false impression of weakness before a potential rebound [10] Group 3 - The 93 stocks favored by financing clients may not guarantee stability; large funds often employ strategies to scare retail investors into selling their shares [10] - In the current information-rich environment, the ability to interpret data accurately is more valuable than the information itself, as many retail investors struggle to understand market signals [10]