Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to profit-taking after reaching historical highs, alongside the impact of a rising U.S. dollar index and falling oil prices [1]. Market Performance - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3,880.80 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.43% [1]. - Silver futures for December delivery settled at $46.87 per ounce, down 1.70% [1]. Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second day, with significant implications including the suspension of $18 billion in infrastructure funding and potential layoffs of thousands of federal workers [1]. - Economists warn that large-scale layoffs could undermine corporate confidence and reduce capital investment, contributing to market risk aversion [1]. Investment Outlook - Despite a year-to-date increase of over 40% in gold prices, analysts believe gold still offers substantial value as it is viewed as the only asset capable of maintaining purchasing power [1]. - There is a bullish sentiment for gold in the last quarter of 2025, with potential prices reaching $4,000 per ounce [1].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of base metals on the London Metal Exchange generally declined on the 19th, influenced by ongoing trade and diplomatic uncertainties affecting demand expectations, as well as cautious market sentiment following interest rate cuts [1]. Price Summary - Three-month copper closed at $9,996.50 per ton, up $50.50 from the previous trading day, with a rise of 0.51% [1]. - Three-month aluminum closed at $2,676.00 per ton, down $29.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 1.07% [1]. - Three-month nickel closed at $15,270.00 per ton, down $65.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.42% [1]. - Three-month lead closed at $2,003.00 per ton, down $1.00 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.05% [1]. - Three-month tin closed at $34,220.00 per ton, up $470.00 from the previous trading day, with a rise of 1.39% [1]. - Three-month zinc closed at $2,898.50 per ton, down $14.50 from the previous trading day, with a decline of 0.50% [1]. Market Influences - The decline in base metal prices is attributed to mixed supply and demand signals, changing central bank policy expectations (particularly from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan), and profit-taking following recent price increases [1]. - Only metals with limited supply or those less affected by demand concerns managed to maintain stable prices, while others experienced declines [1].

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $23.3 to close at $2586.9 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.91% [1] - The trade tensions between China and the United States may ease, contributing to the rise in gold and silver prices [1] - The new Canada-Mexico Action Plan aims to expand bilateral trade in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture, as announced by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [1] Group 2 - Swiss customs data revealed that gold exports to the United States nearly halted in August, with a decline of over 99% compared to July, amounting to only 0.3 tons [1] - The cautious restart of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle has led to a partial weakening of gold price momentum, although analysts believe gold prices remain strongly supported [1] - The December silver futures price decreased by $0.139, closing at $29.083 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.48% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a downward trend due to profit-taking, with current prices around $3645 per ounce after a significant drop from a historical high of $3707.40 per ounce [1][2][3]. Price Movement - On Thursday, gold closed at $3644.14 per ounce, down $15.82 or 0.43% from the previous trading day [2]. - The price had previously reached a high of $3707.40 per ounce on Wednesday before experiencing a rapid decline [3]. Market Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday was characterized by Chairman Powell as a "risk management" measure in response to a weakening labor market, which has created confusion and uncertainty in the market [3]. - This uncertainty contributed to profit-taking in the gold market, leading to the recent price declines [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are hovering around $3640 per ounce, with a short-term support level at $3626.66 per ounce. A break below this level could lead to further declines [4]. - The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending upwards at approximately $3547 per ounce, indicating a prevailing bullish trend despite the recent corrections [4]. - Short-term outlook appears bearish, with the 20-period SMA limiting upward movement around $3675.00 per ounce, and momentum indicators suggesting a potential for further declines [4]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels identified are $3626.70, $3611.70, and $3600.00 per ounce [5]. - Resistance levels are noted at $3655.90, $3675.00, and $3693.40 per ounce [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold experienced short - term profit - taking after the Fed's September rate cut, but maintains a long - term bullish outlook. The Fed's dot - plot shows a further 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, which, along with other factors, supports the mid - term upward momentum of gold prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further rate cuts for the rest of the year in response to concerns about the weakening job market [2]. - US President Trump paid a second state visit to the UK and praised the special relationship between the two countries [2]. - US Congressman John Moolenaar expressed concerns about the TikTok framework agreement between China and the US [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold has been oscillating in the range of 3,660 - 3,700 after the Fed's September rate cut. It has risen about 39% since the beginning of the year, and although there is short - term profit - taking, mid - term upward momentum remains [3]. - Driving factors include the Fed's expected 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, global central banks' continuous gold purchases, Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence, and escalating geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The global ETF gold holdings are still about 3,000 tons, with room to recover to the 2020 high of 3,500 tons [3]. - In the short term, focus on the 3500 - 3800 oscillation range, and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and weekly London silver spot in the range of [39, 45] [3]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities on September 18, 2025: the commodity 20 index was 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index was 2246.67, down 1.06% [42]. 3.5 Precious Metals Index - On September 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 2878.86, with a daily decline of 1.22%, a 5 - day decline of 1.53%, a 1 - month increase of 6.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.12% [44].

金价在周四走软，因在预期美国降息触及历史高位后遭遇获利了结，同时投资者期待本周将公布的美国 关键就业数据。现货 黄金日内最新下跌1%，跌至接近3510美元/盎司的位置。GoldSilver Central董事总 经理Brian Lan表示："我们看到了一些获利回吐，但目前黄金仍处于牛市。降息预期和对美联储独立性 的担忧将增加避险需求，即使金价在短期内升至3800美元甚至更高，我们也不会感到意外。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vietnamese benchmark index experienced a significant drop of 2.6%, marking the largest decline since July 29, attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The VN index has surged over 30% this year, driven by optimism from a trade agreement with the United States and potential market upgrades later this year [1] - Major stocks dragging down the index include Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank, Techcombank, and Vinhomes [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Analysts indicate that retail investors, particularly those with margin loans, are cashing out their profits [1] - There is an expectation that the current rally may have ended, leading the index to enter a consolidation phase before potentially starting a new upward trend [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent significant pullback in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations and technical factors [1][5][6] - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $124,500 on August 14, but fell below $115,000 by August 19, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%, while Ethereum dropped below $4,300, experiencing a decline of over 6% in the same period [1][2] - The overall market saw a liquidation of $332 million in cryptocurrency contracts within 24 hours, affecting over 100,000 traders, with the largest single liquidation occurring at Bitmex valued at $7.825 million [2][3] Group 2 - The pullback is attributed to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rising 3.3% year-on-year in July, which led to a decrease in the market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut from 98% to 84%, thereby reducing the attractiveness of risk assets [5][6] - Historical data suggests that significant downturns in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are often not caused by a single negative factor but are the result of a combination of tightening macro liquidity, policy pressures, and industry credit risks [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the current price decline aligns more with a normal correction within an upward trend rather than a trend reversal, indicating a healthy market adjustment rather than a significant downturn [6][7]

Group 1 - Foreign capital is accelerating its purchase of Chinese stocks, driven primarily by long positions, with a buy-to-cover ratio of approximately 9:1 [1][3] - The A-share market has reached a historical high with nearly 3 trillion in trading volume, but many investors feel anxious as their stocks are not participating in the rally [1] - High-frequency buying by hedge funds has led to a 4.9% overweight in Chinese markets compared to the MSCI World Index, with Chinese stocks making up 5.8% of total positions and 7.3% of net positions [3] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "chasing gains and missing out" is prevalent among retail investors, who often feel anxious during rapid market increases [4] - Many retail investors react to market trends without understanding the underlying intentions of capital flows, leading to a vicious cycle of fear and missed opportunities [4] Group 3 - Market trading behaviors extend beyond simple buying and selling, with "profit-taking" and "short covering" being significant indicators of market sentiment [5] - Observing "profit-taking" can signal potential market peaks, while "short covering" often indicates market bottoms [6][10] Group 4 - The rationale behind foreign capital's aggressive buying includes improved policy environments, better-than-expected economic data, and attractive valuation levels, with the iShares China Large-Cap ETF trading at a P/E ratio of only 11.41, significantly lower than the global average [11] Group 5 - Retail investors are advised to focus on understanding the essence of trading rather than blindly following market trends, emphasizing the importance of observing real capital movements [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market may experience profit-taking following a potential dovish signal from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, as investors have recently flocked to risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, anticipating interest rate cuts to support a weak labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, which has led to increased investments in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and corporate bonds [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached record highs, driven by technology giants, and the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains elevated, causing some cooling in rate cut bets, yet swap traders still see a 92% probability of a rate cut next month [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The team led by Michael Hartnett favors international stocks over U.S. equities, a stance that has proven correct this year [1] - Hartnett warns of a potential stock market bubble forming, suggesting that gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets may benefit as investors seek to hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar [1]