华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

其中，近九成地区收入实现增长。根据财政部的统计，2025年，地方一般公共预算本级收入12.21万亿 元，比2024年增长2.4%，增幅比上半年、前三季度分别提高0.8个、0.6个百分点，呈稳步回升态势。分 地区看，31个省、自治区、直辖市中，除个别地区受煤炭等大宗商品价格下行影响收入有所下降外，27 个地区全年财政收入比2024年均实现增长。 （编辑：吴婧 审核：朱紫云 校对：燕郁霞） 中经记者 杜丽娟 北京报道 2026年1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，介绍了全年财政收支情况。数据显 示，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入21.6万亿元，比2024年下降1.7%。其中，税收收入增长0.8%，全年 总体呈稳步回升走势，反映出我国经济运行延续了稳中有进的发展态势；非税收入下降11.3%，主要是 2024年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。 ...

Revenue Summary - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is projected to be 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024 [1] - Tax revenue is expected to be 17,636.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue is anticipated to decline by 11.3% to 39,682 billion yuan [1] - Central government revenue is forecasted at 93,963 billion yuan, down 6.5%, while local government revenue is expected to rise by 2.4% to 122,082 billion yuan [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax is projected at 68,947 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [1] - Corporate income tax is expected to reach 41,304 billion yuan, growing by 1% [1] - Personal income tax is forecasted to increase by 11.5% to 16,187 billion yuan [1] - Export tax rebates are projected to grow by 10.7% to 21,337 billion yuan, while import VAT and consumption tax are expected to decline by 4.8% to 18,263 billion yuan [1] Expenditure Summary - Total national general public budget expenditure is projected to be 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% from 2024 [2] - Central government expenditure is expected to rise by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure is projected to grow by 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [2] Major Expenditure Categories - Education expenditure is forecasted at 43,417 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% [2] - Social security and employment expenditure is expected to grow by 6.7% to 44,416 billion yuan [2] - Health expenditure is projected to rise by 5.7% to 21,446 billion yuan [2] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue is expected to be 57,700 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% [3] - Government fund budget expenditure is projected to increase by 11.3% to 112,900 billion yuan, driven by accelerated bond fund usage [3] - Total expenditure on special bonds and financial institution injections is expected to reach 61,900 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6% compared to 2024 [3]

21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 1月30日，财政部对外发布2025年财政收支数据。 2025年全国一般公共预算收入较上年下降1.7%，主要在于2024年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬 高基数，税收收入保持小幅正增长。 具体来看，主体税种保持正增长。2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费税1.69万亿 元，增长2%；企业所得税4.13万亿元，增长1%；个人所得税1.62万亿元，增长11.5%。 在主体税种整体低增长的背景下，2025年个人所得税实现11.5%的高增长，这与居民收入稳步增长的密 切相关，2025年全国居民人均可支配收入4.34万元，比上年名义增长5%。 中央财经大学财政税务学院教授白彦锋对记者表示，国家税务总局近年发布的数据显示，中国个人所得 税纳税申报人员中，年收入100万元以上的高收入者约占申报人数的1%，但是这部分人申报缴纳的个税 占全部个税的五成以上；申报收入位居全国前10%的个人，缴纳个税占比九成以上。2025年以来，资本 市场持续活跃，推动了个税的较快增长。"金税四期"的上线运行、2025年10月起互联网平台企业首次正 式报送平台内经营者和从业人员相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation for 2025, indicating a decline in overall budget revenue while expenditures show a modest increase. General Public Budget Revenue Situation - In 2025, the total general public budget revenue is projected to be 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous year [2] - Tax revenue is expected to reach 17,636.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue is forecasted to decline by 11.3% to 39,682 billion yuan [2] - Central government revenue is anticipated to be 93,963 billion yuan, down 6.5%, while local government revenue is expected to rise by 2.4% to 122,082 billion yuan [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax is projected at 68,947 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [3] - Domestic consumption tax is expected to reach 16,857 billion yuan, up 2% [3] - Corporate income tax is forecasted at 41,304 billion yuan, a growth of 1% [4] - Personal income tax is anticipated to increase by 11.5% to 16,187 billion yuan [4] - Import VAT and consumption tax are expected to decline by 4.8% to 18,263 billion yuan [5] - Export tax rebates are projected to grow by 10.7% to 21,337 billion yuan [6] - Stamp duty is expected to increase by 24.1% to 4,270 billion yuan, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 57.8% to 2,035 billion yuan [9] General Public Budget Expenditure Situation - Total general public budget expenditure is projected to be 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% [18] - Central government expenditure is expected to rise by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure is forecasted to grow by 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [18] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure is projected at 43,417 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% [19] - Social security and employment expenditure is expected to rise by 6.7% to 44,416 billion yuan [20] - Health expenditure is anticipated to grow by 5.7% to 21,446 billion yuan [20] - Expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water is expected to decline by 13.2% to 23,495 billion yuan [20] Government Fund Budget Revenue Situation - Total government fund budget revenue is projected to be 57,704 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% [21] - Local government fund budget revenue is expected to decline by 8.2% to 52,648 billion yuan, with land use rights transfer revenue down 14.7% to 41,518 billion yuan [21] Government Fund Budget Expenditure Situation - Total government fund budget expenditure is expected to be 112,874 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% [21] - Local government fund budget expenditure is projected to grow by 5.3% to 101,890 billion yuan [21] State-owned Capital Operating Budget Revenue Situation - Total state-owned capital operating budget revenue is projected to be 8,547 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8% [22] - Central state-owned capital operating budget revenue is expected to rise by 73.3% to 3,903 billion yuan [22] State-owned Capital Operating Budget Expenditure Situation - Total state-owned capital operating budget expenditure is projected to be 2,647 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.1% [22] - Central state-owned capital operating budget expenditure is expected to decline by 16.6% to 1,263 billion yuan [22]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced that in 2025, the sales of products related to the consumption upgrade policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [1][24] - The 2025 fiscal budget showed a slight decrease in overall revenue but a stable performance in key tax categories, with a focus on social welfare and economic support measures [4][10] Group 1: Consumption Upgrade Policy - The consumption upgrade policy led to the sale of over 11.5 million vehicles through trade-in programs, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [1][24] - The trade-in program for home appliances saw nearly 130 million units sold, with over 90% being first-level energy-efficient products [1][24] - The sales of digital products, including mobile phones, reached over 91 million units, with mid-to-high-end models accounting for 72.5% of sales [1][24] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In 2025, the total public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2024, with tax revenue growing by 0.8% [4][8] - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with personal income tax increasing by 11.5% and corporate income tax growing by 1% [4][9] - Total public budget expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% from 2024, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 6.7% [5][10] Group 3: Social Welfare Initiatives - The introduction of a universal childcare subsidy program marked a significant step in social welfare, with over 30 million infants receiving support [11][14] - Approximately 100 billion yuan was allocated for the childcare subsidy, with 90.4 billion yuan coming from central finances [12][14] - The program aims to ensure equitable access to subsidies regardless of urban or rural status, with a focus on efficient distribution and management [13][14] Group 4: Agricultural Support Measures - The Ministry of Finance emphasized food security, with a focus on increasing agricultural productivity through various support measures [15][18] - Significant funding was allocated for high-standard farmland construction, with 1,766 billion yuan dedicated to this initiative [15][18] - The total grain production reached 1.43 trillion jin in 2025, marking an increase of 168 billion jin from the previous year [19][20]

收入小幅下滑，略低于预期 2026.01. 30 本文字数：2599，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 "真金白银"的全国财政数据对外披露，全国财政运行总体平稳。 1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，公开了2025年全国财政收支状况。 根据财政部数据，在收入方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，同比下降1.7%。全 国政府性基金预算收入57704亿元，同比下降7%。在支出方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算支出 287395亿元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金预算支出112874亿元，同比增长11.3%。 财政部国库司副司长郑涌在上述会上表示，2025年财政收入总体平稳运行，重点支出保障有力。去 年各级财政部门实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给力，加强国家重大战略任务和基本民生 财力保障，为完成全年经济社会发展主要目标任务提供有力支撑。 财政部数据显示，2025年印花税4270亿元，增长24.1%，其中，证券交易印花税2035亿元，增长 57.8%。出口退税21337亿元，增长10.7%。 相比于去年税收收入微增，非税收入出现明显下滑，这跟上一年高基数有 ...

"真金白银"的全国财政数据对外披露，全国财政运行总体平稳。 1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，公开了2025年全国财政收支状况。 根据财政部数据，在收入方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，同比下降1.7%。全国政 府性基金预算收入57704亿元，同比下降7%。在支出方面，2025年，全国一般公共预算支出287395亿 元，同比增长1%。全国政府性基金预算支出112874亿元，同比增长11.3%。 财政部国库司副司长郑涌在上述会上表示，2025年财政收入总体平稳运行，重点支出保障有力。去年各 级财政部门实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给力，加强国家重大战略任务和基本民生财力保 障，为完成全年经济社会发展主要目标任务提供有力支撑。 收入小幅下滑，略低于预期 受经济增长放缓、楼市土地市场低迷、物价低迷等多重因素影响，2025年全国财政收入出现小幅下滑。 2025年-全国一般公共预算收入增速同比下降1.7%，低于2025年初官方预期值（0.1%），也低于2024年 这一收入增速（1.3%）。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成。根据财政部数据，2025年全国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Province's fiscal revenue and expenditure data reveal a mixed economic outlook, with a slight increase in general public budget revenue but a significant decline in government fund revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the local economy [2][3][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In 2025, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue is projected to be CNY 307.92 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.4%, ranking 16th nationally and improving by one position from 2024 [2]. - The province's economic output is expected to reach CNY 3.602 trillion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.2 percentage points [2]. Government Fund Revenue - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 is anticipated to be CNY 159.27 billion, representing a decline of 12.2%, which is worse than the initial forecast of -8.7% [5]. - This marks the fifth consecutive year of decline in government fund revenue, nearly halving from its peak of CNY 310.15 billion in 2020 [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Despite weak revenue growth, Jiangxi's general public budget expenditure is set at CNY 742.69 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and approximately 80% of this expenditure is allocated to social welfare [6]. - The province has implemented measures to reduce ineffective spending, cutting over CNY 20 billion in low-efficiency expenditures and reducing "three public" expenses by 21% [6]. Future Projections - For 2026, the general public budget revenue is projected to be CNY 309.5 billion, a growth of 0.5%, while the government fund budget revenue is expected to rise by 2% to CNY 162.45 billion [7]. - The general public budget expenditure for 2026 is estimated at CNY 784.86 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.7%, with a continued focus on improving social welfare [7]. Key Focus Areas - The budget report outlines six key priorities for the fiscal year, including stringent financial management, deepening tax reforms, and enhancing local government debt management [8].

该省今年财政资金重点支持九大领域。 福建财政厅数据显示，2025年福建一般公共预算支出6148.7亿元，同比增长1.1%。其中，民生支出4766 亿元，占一般公共预算支出77.5%。 比如，去年当地教育支出高达1326亿元，占一般公共预算支出比重为21.6%；下达94.3亿元，推动城乡 居民省定基础养老金提高，确保养老金按时足额发放等。 外界比较关注地方今年财政收入预期和资金如何使用。 根据福建省财政厅数据，福建预计2026年地方一般公共预算收入为3816.43亿元，同比增长约2.5%。 经济总量首次站上6万亿元台阶的福建省，披露了最新的财政收支状况。 1月27日，福建省财政厅公布了2026年当地政府"账本"。2025年，福建省地方一般公共预算收入约为 3723.4亿元，同比增长3%。 福建去年财政收入3%的增速，与全国地方财政收入平均增速相近，高于2024年当地财政收入增速 （0.6%），符合去年初当地官方预期。 从近年来全国31个省份财政收入来看，福建省财政收入规模位居全国中游水平，财政实力较强。总体来 看，福建去年财政收入实现了平稳增长，而这得益于当地经济平稳增长。 根据今年福建省政府工作报告，2025 ...