证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 猪肉3 月能繁去化，屠宰量同环比均大增 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 15 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：4 月 22 日，农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司 联合中国农业银行三农对公业务部，通过线上直播方式介绍中 国农业银行支持种业振兴的最新政策与服务举措、融资租赁产 品、投资金融服务模式等内容。国家农作物、畜禽、水产种业 阵型企业、各省优势种业企业和各级种业管理部门、农业银行 系统相关单位线上参加推介会。为落实全国种业企业座谈会有 关部署要求，今年以来农业农村部种业管理司、计划财务司探 索开通"金融惠种直播间"，搭建常态化政银企对接平台，把 重点金融机构最新政策信息第一时间送达种业企业，推动惠企 政策落实落地。此次直播是"金融惠种直播间"第二期，邀请 中国农业银行及子公司通过"政策解读+案例分享"的形式详 细介绍了支持政策措施。截至目前，中国农业银行已出台《支 持种业振兴行动金融服务方案》《支持种业振兴信贷政策》和 《农作物种业行业信贷政策》，启动实施种业振兴服务提升行 ...

Industry Overview - The biobreeding industry is a crucial segment of high-tech agricultural development in China, with a focus on modern agricultural practices [1] - As of January 2025, there are 21 biobreeding industrial parks in China, with the highest concentration in Shandong Province, which has 6 parks [1] Company Developments - Dabeinong has entered a strategic partnership with Fuhua Tongda Chemical Co., aiming to explore new technologies and applications for biobreeding crop herbicides [5] - Wanxiang Denong has reported that two genetically modified varieties have passed national approval, with four varieties participating in the national testing this year. These GM varieties are designed to resist pests, reducing yield loss [5] - Yisheng has successfully imported 28,000 sets of Lihong ancestor white feather broilers, contributing to a total of 230,000 sets imported this year, enhancing domestic supply [5] - Longping High-Tech has improved its rice breeding information system, achieving a 52.58% increase in breeding efficiency for high-yield varieties in the Yangtze River basin [5] Challenges in the Industry - The acceptance of genetically modified rice in China is lower compared to hybrid rice, primarily due to limited public awareness and promotion of GM technology [8] - Currently, only two GM rice varieties have received production safety certificates, indicating a gap in technology maturity compared to developed countries [8] - The dominance of hybrid rice seeds in the market poses a significant challenge for the commercialization and scaling of GM rice seeds [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector shows a divergence between pig prices and piglet prices, with pig prices rebounding while piglet prices continue to decline. The average price of pigs is 14.87 CNY/kg, up 1.09% from last week, with an average profit of approximately 225 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [1][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing low valuations and elasticity, particularly in the white chicken segment, where supply pressures are exacerbated by restrictions on overseas breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks [3][17] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to a fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations, with Hai Da Group highlighted as a key player [5][21] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Pig prices have rebounded, with an average price of 14.87 CNY/kg as of February 22, 2025, while piglet prices are declining, indicating a potential short-term weakness in piglet pricing [1][15] - Supply remains low with an average slaughter weight of 125.68 kg, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg is 4.11% [1][15] - The sector is considered undervalued, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs having head valuations below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting potential for recovery [2][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment faces supply pressure due to halted overseas breeding imports, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [3][17] - Chicken prices have stabilized, with the average price for live chickens at 2.80 CNY per bird, and expectations for price recovery as processing plants resume operations [3][17] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and other companies in the poultry sector due to anticipated demand recovery [4][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed after a prolonged downturn [5][21] - The prices of various aquatic products have shown a mixed trend, with some prices increasing due to supply constraints [5][21] Seed and Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [7][23] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a growth area, with significant potential for agricultural applications of drones [7][23] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, indicating a robust market for local brands [9][25] - Pet food exports have also seen substantial growth, reflecting a healthy export market [9][25] - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. due to their strong market positions [9][27]