2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]

2025年5月12日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 中美经贸正式谈判取得实质性进展,符合日报预期,今日若冲高建议落袋止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 欧元区4月制造业PMM初值为48.7，预期47.5; 4月服务业PMM加值为49.7，预期50.5, 欧元区4月综合PMW加值为50.1，预期值为50.3，前值为50.9 欧元区4月Sentix投资者信心指数-19.5，预期-10,前值-2.9。 5.6%。其中，出口2.27万亿元，增长9.3%;进口1.57万亿元,增长0.8%。 3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，我国制造业景气水平继续回升。3月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI) 录得51.2，高于上月0.4个百分点，为四个月来新高。 美国4月标普全球制造业PMI初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PMI初值51.2，预期52.2，3月 终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对加拿 | | | --- | --- | | 大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a rise of 4.24 points to 1345.17 as of May 9, while the China Export Container Freight Index decreased by 1.3% to 1106.38 [1] - Mysteel's survey indicated that the operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills reached 84.62%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.12 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average daily pig iron output was 2.4564 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.022 million tons [1] Group 2 - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments announced adjustments to management measures for customs special supervision zones, effective June 10, 2025 [2] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 10 totaled 293,991 tons, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last month [2] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association urged major nitrogen fertilizer companies to reduce urea factory prices within three days to not exceed levels prior to May 6 [2]

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月6日） 1. 据上海航运交易所数据，截至2025年5月5日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1379.07 点，与上期相比跌3.5%。 4. 印尼能源部官员Edi Wibowo周一表示，截至4月24日，印尼今年生物柴油消费量为444万升。在1月至 3月期间，生物柴油消费量为320万升。印尼今年生物柴油的棕榈油强制掺混比例为40%，高于去年的 35%。 5. 据CONAB，截至5月3日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收割率为97.7%，上周为94.8%，去年同期为94.3%， 五年均值为96.3%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月4日当周，美国大豆种植率为 30%，此前市场预期为31%，此前一周为18%，去年同期为24%，五年均值为23%；出苗率为7%，上年 同期为8%，五年均值为5%。 7. 印度矿业部表示，2024-25财年原铝产量从2023-24财年的41.6万吨增至42万吨；2024-25财年精炼铜产 量环比增长12.6%，从2023-24财年的50.9万吨增至57.3万吨。 2. 据Mysteel，2025年04月2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The suspension of tariffs on some countries by the US has boosted bullish sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in the market. However, recent operations are highly challenging. Risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The core logic for this year's prediction lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe again. The inclusion of retaliatory tariffs in the negotiation process adds a significant disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry [1] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Indexes - On April 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, a 3.7% increase from the previous period [1] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 983.01 points, a 12.89% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1524.4 points, a 49.83% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1392.78 points, a 35.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1336 USD/TEU, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2313 USD/FEU, a 6.2% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1102.71 points, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1507.27 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 776.61 points, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [1] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in March rose to 50.4, up from 50.2 in February, the highest since August. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in March was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [1] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an obvious recovery in manufacturing prosperity. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the contraction rate of employment slowed down significantly [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.3, the highest in three months; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global composite PMI in March was 53.5, the highest in three months [1] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract drops below 1900 points and the 2510 contract drops below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [1] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [1] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are in deep water. It is recommended to take all profits. After the price war situation becomes clear in April, wait for the far - month contracts to adjust to an appropriate price before making new arrangements [1] Market Conditions - On April 10, the main contract 2506 closed at 1886.0, with a 14.47% increase, a trading volume of 82,600 lots, and an open interest of 33,200 lots, a decrease of 1498 lots from the previous day [1] - Due to the US announcement of tariff suspension for non - retaliatory countries, the market rebounded rapidly, and the container shipping index futures opened and closed higher. In the future, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the continuous decline of SCFIS, some liner companies are still pushing up freight rates in mid - early April. The market atmosphere is bullish under the multi - empty game, and the market is oscillating at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe, etc., which will add a major disturbing factor to the future shipping trend [3]. - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On March 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 870.75 points, up 0.51% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 871.91 points, up 0.62% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1017.39 points, down 1.01% from the previous period [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on March 21 was 1292.75 points, down 26.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1306 USD/TEU, down 6.5% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1152.74 USD/FEU, down 8.5% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on March 21 was 1147.76 points, down 3.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1586.66 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 859.97 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [2]. - On March 24, the main contract 2506 closed at 2072.0, with a 0.31% increase, a trading volume of 45,600 lots, and an open interest of 43,100 lots, a decrease of 954 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's February manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 47.3, the previous value was 46.6; the eurozone's February services PMI preliminary value was 50.7, a 3 - month low; the eurozone's February composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2, the same as the previous value. The eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index was - 12.7, with an expected value of - 16.3 [2]. - China's January manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. China's January Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.1, the previous value was 50.5, remaining above the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month [3]. - The US February S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.6, an 8 - month high; the US February S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 49.7, a 25 - month low; the US February S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 50.4, a 17 - month low [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long on the 2508 contract in the 1900 - 2000 range for a rebound of the peak - season contract, and set a stop - loss [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the basically determined tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with a short window period and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3]. - Long - term strategy: The far - month contracts are currently at a large discount. All positions have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts are adjusted to an appropriate price before making a layout [3]. Other Information - Houthi rebels attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and the US "Harry Truman" aircraft carrier on March 23, causing the airport to suspend flights for half an hour [3]. - US President Trump has frequently introduced trade - protectionist measures, which has raised concerns about the global economic outlook and may disrupt the global economic and trade order and damage Europe [3].