Group 1: Capital Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 105.5 billion yuan, achieving a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan[6] - The operation rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase was set at 1.4%[6] - The Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) for overnight loans rose by 3.7 basis points to 1.365%[6] Group 2: Industry News - The Ministry of Natural Resources aims to streamline real estate transfer registration for enterprises by the end of 2026, promoting integrated services[10] - The national foreign trade work conference emphasized the importance of achieving a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" in trade development[12] Group 3: Market Performance - On February 3, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 3.27%, while the ChiNext index increased by 1.86%[13] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks is 3.199 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 21.55 billion yuan, down by 6.05 billion yuan from the previous trading day[13] Group 4: Company Announcements - Biyang Technology announced its inclusion as a supplier for China Petroleum's acid fracturing materials procurement[22] - Gobi Jia reported a reduction in shareholding by 2.8 million shares, representing 1.94% of its total share capital[23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index rebounded strongly yesterday, but the market trading volume shrank. The market sentiment gradually recovered with the rebound of overseas precious metal prices, and the stock index oscillated upward in the afternoon and closed at the intraday high. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the panic caused by the tightening of overseas liquidity is effectively alleviated. It is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate after the shrinking - volume rebound. In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and "asset shortage", the domestic market funds are still relatively abundant, and the stock index's medium - and long - term upward trend is not expected to end as the economy is in the process of bottom - building [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.50 with a 0.69bp change, GC001 at 1.60 with a - 18.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30 with a - 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57 with a - 0.75bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29 with a 3.00bp change [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4660.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.05% to 3034.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.11% to 8286.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.93% to 8209.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, glass fiber, engineering machinery, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors surging, while only the banking, insurance, and brewing industries declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 1.6% to 4658, IH当月 rose 1.0% to 3033, IC当月 rose 4.3% to 8296, IM当月 rose 3.8% to 8213. IF trading volume was 141,785 with a - 25.9% change, IF open interest was 311,044 with a - 0.9% change, IH trading volume was 63,934 with a - 28.4% change, IH open interest was 114,505 with a - 4.0% change, IC trading volume was 221,446 with a - 23.4% change, IC open interest was 327,164 with a - 0.5% change, IM trading volume was 257,636 with a - 16.1% change, and IM open interest was 405,518 with a - 2.1% change [5]. - **Futures Basis**: IF basis was 1.16% (current - month contract), 1.24% (next - month contract), 2.02% (current - quarter contract), 2.90% (next - quarter contract); IH basis was 1.26% (current - month contract), 0.42% (next - month contract), 0.83% (current - quarter contract), 1.84% (next - quarter contract); IC basis was - 2.36% (current - month contract), 0.46% (next - month contract), 3.14% (current - quarter contract), 3.72% (next - quarter contract); IM basis was - 1.02% (current - month contract), 2.58% (next - month contract), 5.82% (current - quarter contract), 6.33% (next - quarter contract) [7]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 105.5 billion yuan. 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan for the day [3]. - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 150.5 billion yuan, 402 billion yuan, 377.5 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 477.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. In addition, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [4].

Group 1 - The domestic funding market interest rates have shown a comprehensive downward trend recently, with short-term rates slightly decreasing as of early February after the demand release at the end of January [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) injection, leading to ample market liquidity and suppressing the trend of medium to long-term interest rates [1] - The Shibor rates have decreased across various tenors, with the Overnight (O/N) rate at 1.3170%, down by 5.4 basis points, and the 1-Year (1Y) rate at 1.6215%, down by 1.55 basis points compared to January 27 [2] Group 2 - To meet the funding demand at the end of January, the PBOC increased the reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a maturity of 1.7615 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos this week [3] - The PBOC is expected to withdraw significant liquidity through reverse repos, and the domestic funding market rates are anticipated to exhibit a "short-term rise and long-term decline" pattern, especially as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - The recent significant decline in commodity prices has led to a decrease in market risk appetite and a subsequent drop in investment demand, contributing to the weakening of medium to long-term interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank reported the liquidity provision situation for January 2026, highlighting various monetary policy tools and their net injections or withdrawals [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - In January, the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) had a net injection of 700 billion yuan [1] - The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) recorded a net withdrawal of 79 billion yuan [1] - Other structural monetary policy tools had a net injection of 64.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Open Market Operations - In January, the net injection from open market operations included 100 billion yuan from government bond transactions [1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase agreements had a net injection of 167.8 billion yuan [1] - The central treasury cash management saw a net withdrawal of 60 billion yuan, while other term reverse repos had a net injection of 100 billion yuan [1]

每经AI快讯，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年2月4日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.390 | 102.408 | 105.860 | 105.895 | 108.250 | 108.210 | 112.06 | 112.2 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.394 | 102.418 | 105.890 | 105.920 | 108.310 | 108.310 | 111.92 | 112.04 | | | 涨跌 | -0.004 | -0.010 | -0.030 | -0.025 | -0.060 | -0.100 | 0.140 | 0.160 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid amount of 750 billion yuan and a winning amount of 750 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40% [1] Group 2 - The central bank announced the mid-point exchange rates for the interbank foreign exchange market on February 2, 2026, with 1 US dollar equaling 6.9695 yuan and 1 euro equaling 8.2651 yuan [2] - Additional exchange rates include 100 Japanese yen to 4.4926 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.89249 yuan, and 1 British pound to 9.5385 yuan [2] - The exchange rates also cover various currencies such as the Australian dollar at 4.8430 yuan, New Zealand dollar at 4.1916 yuan, and Singapore dollar at 5.4759 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 477.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan after 125 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - This week, the People's Bank of China performed a total of 1.7615 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 324.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 1.181 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 200 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreased by 4.00 basis points to 1.3280%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rates increased slightly by 0.80 and 0.70 basis points, respectively [1] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, only DR001 saw a decline, while other products experienced increases, with R007 and R014 continuing to be inverted [3] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 3.4 basis points and increased by 7.1 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing significantly [3] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 increased by 0.2 and 1.6 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes also showing a decrease [3] Group 3 - The money market rates on January 30 showed a mixed trend, with various tenors experiencing slight declines in yield [9] - The 1-month national bank stock ended at approximately 1.50%, down about 0.35 basis points from the previous close, while the 3-month and 6-month rates remained stable [9] - The yield spread between 1-year and 1-month increased to 9.75 basis points, reflecting a widening trend [9] Group 4 - The funding environment was tight in the morning but shifted to a more relaxed state in the afternoon, with overnight rates fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.70% [8] - After the open market operations, the overnight rates slightly eased, with the lowest transaction prices dropping to around 1.46% by the end of the trading day [8]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].

| | 20260127申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | 11-0 I | | | | | | | | | 9月 1月 9 H | 1月 | 5月 | | | 5月 | | | | 前1日收盘价 1237.5 1887.0 1788. 5 | 1403.0 | 1159.5 | | | 1719.0 | | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1402. 5 | 1157. 0 | 1235.5 | 1890. 0 | 1722. 0 | 1791.5 | | EF | 落蛋 | 0. 5 | 2.5 | 2. 0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | | सह | 张跌幅 | 0. 04% | 0. 22% | 0.16% | -0. 16% | ...