阿根廷华人在线布宜诺斯艾利斯8月17日讯 经济学家阿列克西斯·普埃特近日对阿根廷当前经济形势发出警告，预测美元汇率可能在年底突破1500比索大关。 他在接受里瓦达维亚电台采访时，严厉批评了政府"不惜一切代价压低美元汇率"的政策。 普埃特将当前的经济状况描述为"防御性流动性综合征"，银行宁愿保持流动性也不愿追求盈利能力。他质疑政府政策的逻辑性，指出一个令人困惑的矛 盾："如果你说没有钱照顾退休人员、公立医院医生和残疾人，但却给银行做这种最奢侈的生意，说实话，怎么能说没有钱呢？" 这位经济专家特别关注政府向银行支付的高额利率问题，这些利率高达60%，担保业务甚至达到74%，活期账户透支利率更是高达80%。当被问及如何为这 些高利率提供资金时，普埃特表示这是财政支出紧缩带来的"压力"。 他用一个形象的比喻描述了财政调整的极限："到了某个点，橙子已经干了，连一滴果汁都挤不出来了，你明白吗？"这反映出政府在财政紧缩方面已经接近 极限。 普埃特对美元汇率的未来走势表示担忧，预计年底前将面临上涨压力。他分析期货曲线时指出："如果你看期货曲线，它正在接近波段的上限，12月份是 1502比索...汇率按月交易，每次都更接近波段 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, focusing on the potential implications of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions on various sectors, particularly the housing market and construction industry, amid fluctuating employment data and mortgage rates [3][5]. Market Reactions - Investors are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in sectors traditionally benefiting from lower rates, especially homebuilders [5][6]. - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has dropped to 6.58%, the lowest since October of the previous year, indicating a potential easing in borrowing costs [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF rose by 5.6% in the past week, significantly outperforming the broader market [6]. Housing Market Insights - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index unexpectedly fell to 32, the lowest level since December 2022, with over one-third of builders reducing prices to attract buyers [7]. - Builders are facing challenges related to affordability and regulatory issues, which are impacting their ability to develop land and construct homes [7]. Federal Reserve's Position - There are mixed signals regarding inflation and economic resilience, leading to concerns that Federal Reserve Chair Powell may temper expectations for rate cuts during the Jackson Hole meeting [8][9]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut have risen to 80%, following comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen [9]. - Analysts suggest that Powell must navigate carefully to maintain market stability, avoiding any indications that the economy requires significant stimulus [10].

Economic Situation - The report indicates a more optimistic view on the economic situation, stating that "there is solid support for stable growth in the second half of the year" and emphasizes the need to maintain strategic focus on modernization tasks [2][3] - Confidence in total demand expansion is highlighted, with the service sector showing a production index growth of 5.9% from January to July, surpassing the annual GDP growth target of 5% [3] - The report notes that the macro policy is becoming more proactive, which is expected to continue supporting economic stability [3] Inflation Situation - The report expresses a more positive outlook on domestic inflation, stating that "positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels are increasing" [4] - Core CPI growth has risen for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024, indicating a potential start to a moderate recovery in prices [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding effective demand and improving supply chain efficiency to support price recovery [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The report suggests a shift in monetary policy focus from "discretionary choices" to "precise adjustments," indicating a transition into a "policy consolidation period" [5] - The overall tone of the report has changed from "implementing appropriate monetary policy" to "implementing detailed appropriate monetary policy," reflecting a commitment to maintaining policy stability and predictability [5] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role, with a cautious approach to total quantity tools like rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [6][10] Structural Policy Tools - The report emphasizes the use of structural monetary policy tools to support sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [10] - The central bank plans to enhance coordination with fiscal policies to accelerate the deployment of various loan programs aimed at stimulating consumption and supporting small businesses [10] - The focus on improving financial services for high-quality development areas is highlighted, with a shift in credit allocation towards technology and consumption sectors [12][14] Financial Market Dynamics - The report indicates a need to prevent capital idling and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, which may have limited effects on the bond market [8][9] - The central bank's approach to liquidity management is evolving, with an emphasis on transparency and efficiency in monetary policy operations [11] - The report notes that the financial support structure is shifting towards enhancing the adaptability of financial services to economic structural adjustments, particularly in technology and consumption [12]

Grouping 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference in 2025 will focus on the labor market amidst transformation, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely addressing inflation, rising producer prices, and a weak job market [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-over-month in July, with service prices increasing by 1.1%, marking the largest increase since March 2022 [1][2] - Companies like Nike and Adidas are raising prices to offset additional tariff-related costs, indicating a trend among large retailers to pass on costs to consumers [4] Grouping 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, driven by rising energy service prices [5] - The energy sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with companies like Talen Energy and Vistra Energy experiencing substantial year-to-date price increases [5] - The employment market remains weak, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, and adjustments to previous employment data leading to concerns about future job reports [8][9] Grouping 3 - Powell may discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, as major tech companies have made significant layoffs while investing heavily in AI [12] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, which could benefit small-cap stocks most affected by tariffs [13]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from decline to increase, indicating a need to further stimulate consumer activity in the economy [1] - Consumer spending is a major component of GDP, and its growth is essential for economic development [1] - The government has introduced policies such as "trade-in" and "consumer loan interest subsidies" to boost consumption [1] Group 2: Trends in Consumption - There is a significant trend towards increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP, which is currently lower compared to developed countries [2] - Enhancing consumer income through industrial upgrades is crucial for boosting consumption [2] - The demand for sports events and related products indicates untapped consumer potential [2] Group 3: Competition and Market Dynamics - "Involution" or excessive competition in certain industries is detrimental to consumer welfare and market health [3] - The need to improve industry concentration and profitability is emphasized to combat "involution" [5] - The manufacturing sector's upgrade is essential for increasing residents' income and overcoming the middle-income trap [4][5] Group 4: Policy Utilization and Consumer Opportunities - Consumers are encouraged to take advantage of government subsidies for various sectors, including home appliances and automobiles [6] - The limited nature of subsidies means consumers should act quickly to benefit from available policies [6] - Traditional and new consumption sectors hold significant potential for growth, and consumers should embrace digital economic opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy execution report indicates cautious optimism regarding external economic conditions, with a slight improvement in expectations since the second quarter, particularly noting resilience in the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: External Economic Conditions - The report assesses global economic growth as generally weak, with recovery processes still uncertain, but mentions a slight improvement in expectations since the second quarter [1] - Key risks identified include uncertainty in economic recovery, persistent inflation in some economies, high public sector debt levels, and increased volatility in global financial markets [1] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of rebound, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September being a possibility [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - The report expresses increased confidence in domestic economic growth for the second half of the year, highlighting ongoing improvements in national economic circulation and a commitment to high-quality development [2] - Compared to the May report, the tone is more assured, with many international organizations and investment banks raising their economic forecasts for China [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while promoting international circulation [2] Group 3: Price Stability and Competition - The central bank has identified excessive low-price competition in certain industries as a factor contributing to low inflation, which has been a focus since the beginning of the year [3] - The report notes that while inflation remains low, there are positive factors supporting a moderate recovery in price levels, driven by macroeconomic policy implementation [3] - The anticipated recovery in inflation is expected to alleviate some pressure on monetary policy [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Framework - The overall tone of monetary policy remains "moderately accommodative," with an emphasis on flexibility and foresight in policy implementation [4] - The report introduces the concept of "preventing fund diversion," indicating a focus on improving the quality and efficiency of credit allocation [5] - The central bank aims to balance financial support for the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system, with a cautious approach to interest rate reductions [5] Group 5: Structural Support and Financial Services - The report includes four special articles focusing on structural support for small and micro enterprises, financial services for technological innovation, credit structure optimization, and promoting consumption [7] - It highlights the need for continuous optimization of credit structures to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [7] - Recent policies, such as personal consumption loan subsidies, aim to enhance consumer financing services and stimulate consumption growth [7] Group 6: Loan Rates and Financial Environment - The average weighted interest rate for loans in June was reported at 3.69%, down from 3.75% in March, indicating a gradual decline in loan rates [8] - The report suggests that the decline in loan rates may slow down due to the need to maintain bank interest margins and the overall health of the banking sector [8] - The central bank's policies are expected to continue supporting a stable financial environment while managing inflation expectations [8] Group 7: Overall Assessment - The execution report confirms that the central bank is in a "comfortable zone" regarding its monetary policy objectives, with manageable pressures on growth targets and inflation expectations [9] - The report indicates that there is no immediate need for aggressive monetary easing, but the central bank will remain responsive to changing economic conditions [9] - The bond market is expected to remain defensive while waiting for opportunities, with a focus on balancing risk and return [9]

Market Overview - Recent market trends indicate that large-cap stocks have regained dominance in the U.S. stock market, driven by expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a second consecutive week of gains for major Wall Street indices [1] - Nearly $9 billion flowed back into U.S. stock funds over the past week, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment amid concerns over valuation adjustments [1][6] Economic Indicators - Key economic data released last week focused on inflation and retail sales, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) meeting expectations while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a hotter-than-expected inflation environment, rising 0.9% month-over-month and core inflation increasing to 3.7%, the highest since March [3] - Retail sales grew by 0.5%, but consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, unexpectedly declined, raising concerns about rising inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 224,000, indicating a stable labor market despite signs of stagnation [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September reached 99.9% mid-week, stabilizing around 85% as of the latest updates, indicating strong market pricing for this outcome [4] - Uncertainty surrounding inflation is expected to make some Federal Open Market Committee members cautious about rate cuts, especially in light of mixed economic data [5] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen strong performance, reaching historical highs, with healthcare, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the gains, particularly following significant investments from notable investors like Warren Buffett [6] - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, concerns about high valuations persist, with 91% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believing that current valuations are excessive, the highest level since 2001 [7] - The market's recent performance is attributed largely to large-cap stocks, with 61% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, although only 24% of individual stocks have outperformed the index over the past 60 days, indicating a selective market environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of rising tariffs and producer price index (PPI) on U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), suggesting a potential wave of bankruptcies as these businesses struggle to absorb increased costs [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [2][3]. - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3% in July, up from 2.3% in June and exceeding the market forecast of 2.6% [2][3]. - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, compared to 2.6% in the previous month [2][3]. Tariff Cost Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, consumers 22%, and foreign exporters 14%. Projections indicate that by October, consumers may bear 67% of the costs, while foreign companies and U.S. firms would bear 25% and 8%, respectively [5][6]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict that tariffs could lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an inflation increase of 1% to 1.5% [5][6]. Impact on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to the rising costs associated with tariffs, with experts estimating a 90% chance of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters, potentially leading to a 4% decline in GDP [6]. - The lack of operational capital in SMEs makes it difficult for them to absorb additional costs, leading to warnings of widespread bankruptcies among retailers if current tariff policies persist [6].

Core Insights - Bosnia's trade deficit continues to expand despite growth in both imports and exports during the first seven months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Trade Data - Bosnia's import value from January to July 2023 reached 18.43 billion marks, while exports totaled 10.25 billion marks, resulting in a trade deficit of 8.17 billion marks [1] - In comparison, during the same period in 2022, imports were 17.75 billion marks, exports were 9.74 billion marks, and the trade deficit was 8.01 billion marks [1] Group 2: Major Import and Export Categories - Major imports included mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (2.14 billion marks), nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (1.63 billion marks), and vehicles and parts (1.56 billion marks) [1] - Key exports comprised electrical machinery and equipment (937.2 million marks), nuclear reactors and machinery (826.3 million marks), and furniture and bedding (697.9 million marks) [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - Main export destinations were Croatia (1.82 billion marks), Germany (1.46 billion marks), and Serbia (1.09 billion marks) [2] - Major import sources included Croatia (3.44 billion marks), Serbia (2.44 billion marks), and Slovenia (1.54 billion marks) [2] Group 4: Economic Commentary - Economist Milenko Stanic highlighted that the trade deficit has been a persistent issue, increasing from just over 7 billion marks a decade ago to over 12 billion marks in recent years, with imports accelerating [2] - The inflation rate in Bosnia for the first half of the year was reported at 4.6%, which has significantly impacted the prices of imported and exported goods [2]

Group 1 - The US retail sales data for July showed a stable growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating a positive consumer spending trend despite concerns over tariffs and rising import prices [1][2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated the third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, with an upward revision of personal consumption expenditure growth from 2.0% to 2.2% for the July to September period [2] - The increase in retail sales alleviated concerns about economic stagnation following three months of weak employment data, although the impact of tariffs on prices remains a concern for future monetary policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The July import price index rose by 0.4%, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating that tariffs are exerting cost pressure on imported goods [2] - The consumer confidence index dropped for the first time since April, with the University of Michigan's index falling from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting concerns over rising inflation [2] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although there are concerns that tariffs have not yet fully impacted consumer prices [3]