智通财经2月26日讯（编辑 黄君芝）堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德周三表示，过高的通货膨胀仍然是央 行急需解决的更关键问题，但他没有说明货币政策应该如何应对。 当天，施密德在科罗拉多经济俱乐部的一次演讲中表示："我认为我们在通胀方面还有很多工作要做"， 而"我认为我们在就业方面处境相当不错"。 （智通财经 黄君芝） 无独有偶。本周，美联储官员接连放出了鹰派的信号，表示通胀才是最大问题，降息应暂时放到一边。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周二表示，在有更多证据表明通胀正持续回落之前，不适合进一步降息。 他补充称，决策者过去曾因"误判通胀只是暂时性"而受到教训，不应重蹈覆辙。 美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）则指出，传统降息可能无法有效应对当前由人工智能（AI）技术普 及所引发的失业率上升问题。虽然库克并没有评论短期货币政策前景，但她提到，1月会议之后公布的 最新就业数据显示，劳动力市场状况正在趋于稳定。 最后，施密德还谈到了美联储资产负债表，并表示当前内部讨论聚焦于理解金融体系所需的适当准备金 水平。 他指出，美联储过去购债行动中持有的大量抵押贷款支持证券仍在压低住房借贷成本。由于当前美联储 持有抵押贷款债券的 ...

特朗普还声称，在过去12个月内，美国政府获得了来自全球各地超过18万亿美元的资金承诺。但根据白 宫网站公布的数据，美国获得的国内外计划投资总额不到10万亿美元。最终能落地的恐怕还要大幅缩 水。 美国总统特朗普第二任期的首次国情咨文的演讲内容与现实展现巨大鸿沟。据新华社报道，特朗普2月 24日晚在美国国会发表国情咨文演讲，对其重返白宫一年多来的施政进行盘点，着重强调其在经济民生 方面的"政绩"。现场民主共和两党议员反应两个极端，有议员抗议被驱逐离场。 央视新闻报道称，据悉，有数十名民主党议员缺席特朗普的演讲。众议院民主党领袖杰弗里斯日前要求 民主党议员要么以"沉默抗议"方式出席，要么参加其他活动。20多名议员此前表示24日晚会参加在华盛 顿国家广场举行的一个名为"人民国情咨文"的集会。 需要注意的是，此次演讲内容与美国民众的现实感受及客观数据存在巨大温差，成为美国政治极化和民 生困境的生动注脚。这场演讲如同一面棱镜，折射出美国光鲜口号下的复杂裂痕。 据新华社2月25日消息，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）25日报道，美国总统特朗普24日晚发表的国情咨 文讲话中，存在一些不准确的数据和误导性观点。其中，他在经济数据方 ...

具体来说，1月澳大利亚食品与非酒精饮料价格月度同比涨幅为3.1%；烟酒价格同比涨幅为5%；服装鞋 靴价格同比涨幅为5.3%；房屋价格同比涨幅为6.7%；家具、家居设备与服务价格同比涨幅为1.4%；保 健价格同比涨幅为3.2%；交通价格同比涨幅为1.1%；通讯价格同比涨幅为1.4%；文娱价格同比涨幅为 3.6%；教育价格同比涨幅为5.4%；保险与金融服务价格同比涨幅为2.4%。 当地媒体引用Global X ETFs高级产品和投资经理Marc Jocum的话说，澳大利亚经济持续面临价格压 力，市场可能低估了澳大利亚央行在3月加息的风险。从1月数据来看，通胀压力正在升温而不是缓解， 住房、食品和娱乐活动方面的通胀根深蒂固，如果没有进一步的政策行动，通胀率不太可能迅速回到澳 央行设定的目标区间。市场目前预期今年至少会再加息一次，受1月通胀数据高于预期的影响，市场现 在对3月加息的预期升至15%左右，而对5月加息的预期则高达70%。 新华财经悉尼2月25日电 澳大利亚统计局25日宣布，2026年1月该国整体消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨 幅为3.8%，与去年12月持平，高于市场此前预期的3.7%。作为基础通胀率指标的 ...

国际货币基金组织在2025年10月的世界经济展望报告中公布的数据显示，美国的国内生产总值达到30.62万亿美元，这个数字让美国继续保持全球最大经济 体的位置。 俄罗斯的国内生产总值是2.54万亿美元，中国则达到19.4万亿美元。这些数据来自权威机构的测算，反映出各国在过去一年里的经济表现。 美国经济主要靠消费和科技拉动，俄罗斯依赖能源出口，中国则通过制造业和服务业支撑增长。 美国经济在2025年增长2.0%，消费者支出占到七成以上，这个比例直接推动零售和房地产市场的活跃。 科技行业吸引大量投资，特别是人工智能和半导体，这些资金帮助企业扩大生产规模。 美联储的利率政策影响借贷成本，企业借钱投资时需要计算更高的利息支出。债务规模超过35万亿美元，政府每年支付利息就消耗大量预算资金。 这个情况让财政资源分配变得紧张，军费开支占预算大头，用于维持海外基地和武器采购。 俄罗斯经济在西方制裁下增长0.6%，能源出口占出口总额近一半，石油和天然气销售给亚洲国家带来收入。 转向东方市场后，俄罗斯签署更多贸易协议，管道运输天然气到中国和印度。军工产业产量增加20%，工厂生产坦克和导弹，这些装备用于边境防御和出口 销售。 通货膨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the platinum and palladium main contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed significantly higher. Macroscopically, although the US inflation and GDP data have weakened periodically, Fed officials have successively sent out cautious signals, weakening the market's bets on interest rate cuts this year. Tariffs and the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran have heated up again, leading to high market risk aversion. If the tariff and geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continue to fluctuate, the risk premium may continue to support the prices of platinum and palladium on the beta side of the precious metals market. Fundamentally, platinum prices may continue to show strong resilience driven by rising costs at the South African supply - end, cautious capital expenditure by mining companies, and a tight inventory situation. Recently, due to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, the market's concern about supply tightening from Russia may support palladium prices to a certain extent. However, the recovery of palladium's recycled supply and the structural substitution in the automotive sector may cause it to move relatively in a volatile manner. In terms of price range, London platinum has a resistance level of 2200 US dollars and a support level of 2000 US dollars; London palladium has a resistance level of 1800 US dollars and a support level of 1600 US dollars. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 650 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 500 yuan/gram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract is 586.00 yuan/gram, up 38.50 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 457.95 yuan/gram, up 19.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 584.02 yuan/gram, up 38.93 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 431.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 1.98 yuan/gram, up 0.43 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 26.95 yuan/gram, down 16.70 yuan [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index is 97.90, up 0.17; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.78%, up 0.01%. The VIX volatility index is 19.55, down 1.46 [2] 3.2 Industry News - The US White House stated that President Trump's preferred option on the Iranian issue is always diplomacy, but is willing to use lethal force if necessary. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that based on the consensus reached in the previous round of negotiations, Iran will resume negotiations with the US in Geneva and is determined to reach a fair and reasonable agreement in the shortest possible time. - Fed Governor Cook said that AI has triggered a generational change in the US labor market, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed may not be able to respond with interest rate cuts, and monetary policy may be in a dilemma: interest rate cuts cannot effectively address structural unemployment and may push up inflation. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that it is not appropriate to further cut interest rates until there is more evidence that inflation is continuously falling. Goolsbee pointed out that policymakers have been taught a lesson in the past for "misjudging inflation as only temporary" and should not repeat the same mistake. - Sources said that Japanese Prime Minister Hayami Sanae expressed clear concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest rate hikes during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo last week, and her stance was significantly tougher than during their last meeting in November last year. - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15% [2] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - On February 25 at 18:00, the eurozone's January CPI monthly and annual rates. - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment claims data for the week ending February 21. - On February 27 at 21:30, the US January PPI monthly and annual rates [2]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 2 月 EPMI 数据带来哪些增量信息 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（EPMI）环比下降 5.4 个点至 44.6。春节所在月份的季节性是 EPMI 下行 的主要原因，与历史上春节位于 2 月中旬的年份相比，今年 EPMI 环比降幅小于 2021 年、基本持平于 2024 年、弱于 2015 和 2018 年的环比小幅上行。中观景气面同样回落，7 大细分行业中仅新能源行业位于景气扩张 区间。 据中采咨询（下同），2 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（EPMI）环 ...

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that most of the tariffs imposed under the Trump administration were illegal. In a 6-3 decision, Supreme Court justices said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, which the president used to implement about 75% of the tariffs in 2025, does not give the president the authority to enact these import taxes. Tariffs on specific items, such as automobiles and steel, remain in place. KEY TAKEAWAYS Most of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have ...

Interest-rate cuts in the near term aren’t appropriate by the Fed until there’s more evidence that sticky inflation is declining, said Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee. Goolsbee, a voting member of the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, also said the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs could help cool inflation. “I remain optimistic that there can be more rate cuts this year. But that hinges on seeing actual progress on ...

Yeah, we see the numbers and it is a considerable increase, even though the prior month and the Conference Board number was revised up to 89. The jump to 91.2% is significant and we see it also in the present situation, which is 120. Now that actually comes down from a revised number of one 21.8%, but last month it was one 13.7%.So perhaps Americans are changing their minds a lot. Expectations go up to 72 from 67.2%, and this would be reasonably good news, although as you mentioned, I just finished talking ...

从居民消费价格环比变动情况来看，1月份，八大类商品及服务价格环比"五涨二降一平"。其中，生活 用品及服务价格上涨0.7%，交通通信价格上涨0.3%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨0.3%，医疗保健价格上涨 1.0%，其他用品及服务价格上涨2.7%；衣着价格下降0.2%，居住价格下降0.3%；食品烟酒及在外餐饮 价格持平。食品中，鸡蛋价格上涨3.3%，鲜菌价格上涨0.9%，淡水鱼价格上涨1.2%，鲜果价格上涨 0.6%，猪肉价格上涨0.2%；鲜菜价格下降3.5%，牛肉价格下降0.2%。 从居民消费价格同比变动情况来看，1月份，八大类商品及服务价格同比"五涨二降一平"。其中，衣着 价格上涨3.2%，生活用品及服务价格上涨2.7%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨0.7%，医疗保健价格上涨 4.2%，其他用品及服务价格上涨15.2%；居住价格下降0.6%，交通通信价格下降3.3%；食品烟酒及在外 餐饮价格持平。食品中，鲜菜价格上涨10.6%，淡水鱼价格上涨5.8%，牛肉价格上涨4.4%，鲜菌价格上 涨2.6%，鲜果价格上涨0.7%；猪肉价格下降14.0%，鸡蛋价格下降13.5%。 江南时报讯2月24日，记者从国家统计局江苏调查总队获悉， ...