Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets continue to exhibit "volatile differentiation + internal rotation of technology style," with capital preference focusing on power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors [1][4] Economic Environment - The U.S. August core PCE data did not show significant inflationary pressure, increasing market bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][18] - The "Great American Rescue Plan" is expected to gradually take effect in the second half of the year, alongside fiscal and monetary expansion in Europe, which may boost global demand recovery [1][11] Industry Performance - The technology-related overseas sectors are performing strongly due to ongoing capital expenditure expansion related to AI, while traditional manufacturing and consumption sectors are relatively weak due to high interest rates suppressing demand [2][8] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are seeing a rotation in capital towards sectors with clear improvement in profitability, such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [4][6] Investment Opportunities - The AI sector remains a mid-term industry prosperity mainline, with potential for short-term trading adjustments as valuations digest [3][18] - Key areas to watch include battery, engineering machinery, and the anti-involution price increase chain (express delivery, breeding, fiberglass) [3][18] - The overseas capital goods chain is worth early-stage exploration, particularly in non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and petrochemicals [3][18] Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that after the Fed resumes rate cuts, improvements in the U.S. job market often lag, while PMI and CPI rebound more quickly [14][18] - The current high interest rate environment is expected to gradually improve housing mortgage rates and corporate financing rates, potentially leading to a recovery in the real estate sector and traditional industry investment willingness [11][18]

墨西哥的动作让中国眉头一皱 不到24小时，墨西哥就回应了中方调查。不是普通回应，而是直接对中国有色浮法玻璃展开反倾销调查。这是巧合吗？绝对不是。最近墨西哥上调关税， 重点针对中国，却把美国和加拿大排除在外，这一招让人怎么想都觉得——是给特朗普打了个招呼。 墨西哥的关税"秀"背后：谁在操纵？ 官方说，是为了保护本国制造业和减少对亚洲依赖。可问题是，重点砍的恰恰是中国敏感行业，这和"友好关系"怎么对得上？如果真的关系好，为什么偏 偏挑中国最敏感的地方出手？ 再看大背景，特朗普早就威胁过墨西哥，要把商品关税提高到30%，后来才暂缓90天。墨西哥明显是被迫妥协，对中国加税，是想给特朗普交代。可谁能 保证美国不会随时翻脸？中国的反制绝不是一次性的。 中国的回应：不是小事，是信号 中国商务部对碧根果发起反倾销调查，表面上是坚果问题，但本质是警告墨西哥：别把中国利益当作谈判筹码。这不是简单的经济动作，这是战略手段 ——用规则捍卫利益。 墨西哥总统也试图缓和，说"和中国关系非常好"。可这种说法根本自相矛盾：如果关系好，为啥要在最敏感行业加税？这一步，危险！ 特朗普加码，全球都被卷进去 就在中墨摩擦升级时，特朗普突然宣布，从1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. second quarter real GDP annualized final value increased by 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the revised value of 3.3% [3] - The final value of real personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.5%, surpassing the expected 1.7% and the revised value of 1.6% [3] - The second quarter PCE price index annualized final value rose by 2.1%, higher than the expected 2% and the revised value of 2% [3] - The core PCE price index annualized final value increased by 2.6%, above the expected 2.5% and the revised value of 2.5% [3] Industry Insights - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports of cabinets and related products starting October 1, and a 100% tariff on all brand or patented drugs [7] - The tariffs on heavy trucks are expected to have a minimal impact on Chinese manufacturers, while tariffs on home decor products may negatively affect domestic exports [7] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the wet coke price by 50 yuan/ton and dry coke price by 55 yuan/ton, suggesting a continued push against irrational competition in the industry [7] Automotive Sector - The China Passenger Car Association forecasts that total annual sales of automotive manufacturers will reach 40 million units during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual growth rate of 3% [9] - The growth in the automotive sector is expected to be driven by demand from midwestern and small county markets, as well as the international market [9] - The trend towards larger capacity batteries in range-extended vehicles is anticipated to create a significant new market for high-capacity power batteries, benefiting leading battery manufacturers [11] Consumer Trends - Domestic travel demand is showing strong growth ahead of the National Day holiday, with cross-province travel orders increasing by 58% year-on-year [13] - The inbound tourism market is also active, with a 75% year-on-year increase in Russian traveler bookings due to visa-free policies [13] - The overall high demand for travel during the holiday period is expected to positively impact related industries in the tourism sector [13]