【文/观察者网 熊超然】今年8月，美国总统特朗普曾扬言要对进口半导体征收约100%的关税，仅豁免 在美国生产或承诺在美国生产的企业。 当地时间11月19日，路透社援引美国官员的一番私下说法独家报道称，虽然这项政策此前被视为特朗普 经济议程中的核心内容，但美方可能不会很快征收曾承诺过的半导体关税。据两名直接了解此事的人士 和一名听取了相关谈话的人士透露，过去几天，美国官员们已向政府和私营企业的利益相关方传达了这 些信息。 报道援引另外一名关注此事的人士称，特朗普政府正在采取"更为谨慎的态度"，以避免激怒中国。还有 两名知情人士则说，特朗普的幕僚团队正"谨慎对待"半导体关税问题，因为他们正努力避免与中方在贸 易问题上发生冲突，以免重燃针锋相对的贸易战，甚至扰乱到关键稀土矿物的流通。 当时，美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）指出，250%是特朗普迄今为止发出的最高关税税率威 胁，不过这位美国总统此前也曾屡次威胁要加征关税，但后来又改变了政策，因此无法保证他最终是否 会将药品关税税率定在250%。 不过，这些人士也提醒称，在特朗普政府最终批准之前，任何决定都不是最终决定，美方仍随时可能征 收高达三位数关税。 当地时 ...

Core Points - The U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported to the U.S. starting November 1 [1] - This tariff follows a previous announcement on September 25 regarding a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, which was delayed due to opposition from major U.S. automakers [1] - Additional tariffs were announced on various products, including a 100% tariff on imported brand-name or patented drugs, a 50% tariff on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the first week of November regarding the legality of many tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced new tariffs on imported softwood lumber and wood products, with a 10% tariff on softwood and a 25% tariff on cabinets and related products, effective October 14 [1] - Additional tariffs include a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs starting October 1 [1] - The announcement led to a significant drop in pharmaceutical stocks, with the White House clarifying that the new drug tariffs do not apply to countries with existing trade agreements with the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.7% year-over-year increase in furniture prices as a result of the tariff policies [2] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce expressed concerns over new tariffs on heavy trucks, highlighting that the top five sources of heavy truck imports are allied countries [2] - President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S., citing the loss of the American film industry to foreign competition [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court ruled that the legal basis for the tariffs imposed by President Trump did not grant him the authority to levy such taxes [3] - The Trump administration has appealed this ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of the tariffs in early November [3]

Core Points - The U.S. government, under President Trump, plans to impose a 100% tariff on all films produced outside the United States, citing the need to protect the domestic film industry [1] - Trump also announced high tariffs on various imported goods, including a 100% tariff on all brand-name or patented drugs, a 50% tariff on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks produced outside the U.S. [1] - The recent tariff announcements have led to significant dissatisfaction among U.S. businesses, which are facing increased costs beyond their planned budgets [1] Industry Impact - The film industry may face increased production costs and potential shifts in production locations due to the new tariffs on foreign films [1] - The furniture and cabinetry industries could experience price increases, affecting consumer purchasing behavior and overall market dynamics [1] - Pharmaceutical companies are likely to be impacted by the 100% tariff on imported drugs, which could lead to higher prices for consumers and potential supply chain disruptions [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the United States, aiming to revive the American film industry [1][3] - The U.S. entertainment industry may face significant impacts due to the proposed tariffs on foreign-produced films, as the industry is already experiencing challenges [3] - Starting October 1, additional tariffs will be imposed on various imported goods, including a 100% tariff on all brand-name or patented drugs, 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, 30% on soft furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks produced outside the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.7% year-over-year increase in furniture prices by August 2025, attributed to the tariff policies [3] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to expedite the review of the legality of the majority of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for the first week of November [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets continue to exhibit "volatile differentiation + internal rotation of technology style," with capital preference focusing on power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors [1][4] Economic Environment - The U.S. August core PCE data did not show significant inflationary pressure, increasing market bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][18] - The "Great American Rescue Plan" is expected to gradually take effect in the second half of the year, alongside fiscal and monetary expansion in Europe, which may boost global demand recovery [1][11] Industry Performance - The technology-related overseas sectors are performing strongly due to ongoing capital expenditure expansion related to AI, while traditional manufacturing and consumption sectors are relatively weak due to high interest rates suppressing demand [2][8] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are seeing a rotation in capital towards sectors with clear improvement in profitability, such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [4][6] Investment Opportunities - The AI sector remains a mid-term industry prosperity mainline, with potential for short-term trading adjustments as valuations digest [3][18] - Key areas to watch include battery, engineering machinery, and the anti-involution price increase chain (express delivery, breeding, fiberglass) [3][18] - The overseas capital goods chain is worth early-stage exploration, particularly in non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and petrochemicals [3][18] Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that after the Fed resumes rate cuts, improvements in the U.S. job market often lag, while PMI and CPI rebound more quickly [14][18] - The current high interest rate environment is expected to gradually improve housing mortgage rates and corporate financing rates, potentially leading to a recovery in the real estate sector and traditional industry investment willingness [11][18]

Group 1 - Mexico has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese float glass, which is seen as a strategic move rather than a coincidence, especially after raising tariffs specifically targeting China while excluding the US and Canada [1][2] - The rationale provided by Mexican officials for the tariff increase is to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asia, yet the focus on sensitive Chinese industries raises questions about the nature of Mexico's relationship with China [2][4] - The backdrop includes Trump's previous threats to raise tariffs on Mexican goods, indicating that Mexico's actions may be a response to US pressure, potentially jeopardizing its relationship with China [4][16] Group 2 - China's response to Mexico's actions includes launching an anti-dumping investigation into pecans, signaling a warning to Mexico not to use Chinese interests as bargaining chips in negotiations [5][16] - Despite the Mexican president's attempts to downplay tensions by stating that relations with China are good, the imposition of tariffs on sensitive sectors contradicts this claim and poses risks for future cooperation [7][19] - The broader context involves Trump announcing new tariffs on various imported products, which not only targets China but also impacts global trade dynamics, suggesting a shift in the global trade landscape [8][17] Group 3 - The ongoing trade disputes between China, Mexico, and the US are driven by US factors, with Mexico caught in the middle, leading to increased uncertainty in global trade [14][19] - Trump's tariff strategy aims to protect US manufacturing but may inadvertently raise costs for American consumers, as seen in the rising prices of furniture and pharmaceuticals due to increased tariffs [10][11][13] - The potential for a reconfiguration of global supply chains and trade rules is evident, with all countries involved recalibrating their strategies in response to the evolving trade environment [17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. second quarter real GDP annualized final value increased by 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the revised value of 3.3% [3] - The final value of real personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.5%, surpassing the expected 1.7% and the revised value of 1.6% [3] - The second quarter PCE price index annualized final value rose by 2.1%, higher than the expected 2% and the revised value of 2% [3] - The core PCE price index annualized final value increased by 2.6%, above the expected 2.5% and the revised value of 2.5% [3] Industry Insights - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports of cabinets and related products starting October 1, and a 100% tariff on all brand or patented drugs [7] - The tariffs on heavy trucks are expected to have a minimal impact on Chinese manufacturers, while tariffs on home decor products may negatively affect domestic exports [7] - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the wet coke price by 50 yuan/ton and dry coke price by 55 yuan/ton, suggesting a continued push against irrational competition in the industry [7] Automotive Sector - The China Passenger Car Association forecasts that total annual sales of automotive manufacturers will reach 40 million units during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual growth rate of 3% [9] - The growth in the automotive sector is expected to be driven by demand from midwestern and small county markets, as well as the international market [9] - The trend towards larger capacity batteries in range-extended vehicles is anticipated to create a significant new market for high-capacity power batteries, benefiting leading battery manufacturers [11] Consumer Trends - Domestic travel demand is showing strong growth ahead of the National Day holiday, with cross-province travel orders increasing by 58% year-on-year [13] - The inbound tourism market is also active, with a 75% year-on-year increase in Russian traveler bookings due to visa-free policies [13] - The overall high demand for travel during the holiday period is expected to positively impact related industries in the tourism sector [13]